Oversupply of oil may continue, impacting futures contracts of additional delivery months. Such circumstances may arise due to: (i) disruptions in oil pipelines and other means to get oil out of storage and delivered to refineries (as might occur due to infrastructure deterioration, work stoppages, or weather/disaster); (ii) investor demand for futures contracts as an investment opportunity driving increased production; or (iii) potential U.S. government intervention (in the form of grants or other aid) to keep oil producers, and the workers they employ, in service.
The economic impact of crude oil’s negative price is not fully known at this time and it is not certain whether crude oil will trade at negative prices again in the future. The Fund may experience significant losses if it holds positions in futures contracts that trade at negative prices.
Trading Limitations Could Be Imposed on the Fund.
Market volatility and economic turbulence in the first half of 2020 has led to futures commission merchants increasing margin requirements for certain futures contracts, including nearer-dated WTI and other oil futures contracts. Some futures commission merchants may impose trading limitations, whether in the form of limits or prohibitions on trading oil futures contracts. If the Fund is subject to increased margin requirements, it will incur increased costs in achieving its investment objective. The Fund may not be able to achieve its investment objective if it becomes subject to heightened trading limitations.
Fund Closures and Trading Halts.
In light of the extraordinary market circumstances, other exchange traded products that provide its investors with exposure to oil have liquidated or halted issuing creation units. With less available investment options, the Fund may experience greater-than-normal investment activity. Such activity could disrupt the Fund’s Creation Unit process, as described more fully below. Additionally, outflows or liquidations in other commodity pooled investment vehicles may result downward price pressure on the related futures contracts as the commodity pools liquidate positions.
Risk that the Fund Will Experience Losses As a Result of Global Economic Shocks.
In March 2020, U.S. equity markets entered a bear market in the fastest such move in the history of U.S. financial markets. Economic turmoil continued into April 2020, with those in the United States who have requested unemployment benefits since the outbreak ofCOVID-19 reaching 26 million people as of the week ending April 18, 2020. In response toCOVID-19, the United States Congress has passed relief packages totaling more than $2.5 trillion, including $2 trillion of economic relief made available in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. Although oil prices rallied during 2019 with higher prices supported by continued compliance with OPEC+ production cuts, US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran, tension in the Gulf region, and an oversupply of oil with inadequate storage capacity, prices fell to historic lows in April 2020. Contemporaneous with the onset of theCOVID-19 pandemic in the US, oil experienced shocks to supply and demand, impacting the price and volatility of oil. With the oversupply of oil, caused at least in part to theCOVID-19-driven significantly low demand, the oil market volatility continued through the end of April. The global economic shocks being experienced as of the date hereof may cause significant losses to the Fund.
The Effects of Super Contangoed Market Are More Exaggerated Than Rolling Futures Contracts In A Contangoed Market.
As described below, pursuant to the Index’s methodology, the Index Commodities roll from one futures contract to another futures contract that is intended to generate the most favorable ‘implied roll yield’ under prevailing market conditions, rather than rolling to a new futures contract based on a predetermined schedule (e.g., monthly). Where there is an upward-sloping price curve for futures contracts, the implied roll yield is expected to be negative, which is a market condition called “contango”. Contango exists when contract prices are higher in distant delivery months than in nearer delivery months, typically due to