Gold and silver have historically exhibited persistent “contango” markets rather than backwardation. Natural gas, like crude oil, moves in and out of backwardation and contango but historically has been in contango most commonly.
There have been times where WTI crude oil futures contracts experience “extraordinary contango or extraordinary backwardation”. For example, in April 2020, the market for crude oil futures contracts experienced a period of “extraordinary contango” that resulted in a negative price in the May 2020 WTI crude oil futures contract. In the summer of 2022, the market for crude oil futures contracts experienced a period of extreme backwardation, but normalized towards the end of the year. The futures contracts held by the Funds may experience a period of extraordinary contango or backwardation in the future. If all or a significant portion of the futures contracts held by an Ultra Fund at a future date were to reach a negative price, investors in such Fund could lose their entire investment. Conversely, investors in an UltraShort Fund could suffer significant losses or lose their entire investment if prices reversed or were subject to extraordinary backwardation. The effects of rolling futures contracts under extraordinary contango or backwardation market conditions generally are more exaggerated than rolling futures contracts under more typical contango or backwardation market conditions. Either scenario may result in significant losses.
Investments in futures contracts are subject to current position limits and accountability levels established by the exchanges. Accordingly, the Sponsor and the Funds may be required to reduce the size of outstanding positions or be restricted from entering into new positions that would otherwise be taken for a Fund or not trade in certain markets on behalf of the Fund in order to comply with those limits or any future limits. These restrictions, if implemented, could limit the ability of each Fund to invest in additional futures contracts, add to existing positions in the desired amount, or create additional Creation Units and could otherwise have a significant negative impact on Fund operations and performance, decreasing a Fund’s correlation to the performance of its benchmark, and otherwise preventing a Fund from achieving its investment objective. On May 4, 2020, CME imposed a more restrictive position limit in September 2020 WTI oil futures contracts with respect to the Oil Funds. In response to CME’s imposition of a more restrictive position limit, global developments, and other factors, the Sponsor modified certain of the Oil Funds’ investment strategies to invest in longer-dated futures contracts. In early July 2020, in anticipation of the roll of the Oil Funds’ benchmark, and in order to help manage the impact of recent extraordinary conditions and volatility in the markets for crude oil and related Financial Instruments, the Sponsor modified certain of the Oil Funds’ investment strategies to invest in longer-dated futures contracts.
Natural Disasters and Public Health Disruptions, such as the COVID-19 Pandemic, May Have a Significant Negative Impact on the Performance of Each Fund.
Natural or environmental disasters, such as earthquakes, fires, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis and other severe weather-related phenomena generally, and widespread disease, including public health disruptions, pandemics and epidemics (for example, COVID-19 including its variants), have been and may continue to be highly disruptive to economies and markets. These conditions have led, and may continue to lead, to increased or extreme market volatility, illiquidity and significant market losses. Such natural disaster and health crises could exacerbate political, social, and economic risks, and result in significant breakdowns, delays, shutdowns, social isolation, civil unrest, periods of high unemployment, shortages in and disruptions to the medical care and consumer goods and services industries, and other disruptions to important global, local and regional supply chains affected, with potential corresponding results on the operating performance of the Funds and their investments. Further, such events can be highly disruptive to economies and markets, significantly disrupt the operations of individual companies (including, but not limited to, the Funds, the Funds’ Sponsor and third party service providers), sectors, industries, markets, securities and commodity exchanges, currencies, interest and inflation rates, credit ratings, investor sentiment, and other factors affecting the value of the Funds’ investments. These factors can cause extreme market volatility, illiquidity, exchange trading suspensions and market closures. For example, market factors may adversely affect the price and liquidity of the Funds’ investments and potentially increase margins and collateral requirements in ways that have a significant negative impact on Fund performance or make it difficult, or impossible, for a Fund to achieve its investment objective. Under these circumstances, a Fund could have difficulty finding counterparties to transactions, entering or exiting positions at favorable prices and could incur significant losses. Further, Fund counterparties may close out positions with the Funds without notice, at unfavorable times or unfavorable prices, or may choose to transaction on a more limited basis (or not at all). In such cases, it may be difficult or impossible for a Fund to achieve the desired investment exposure with its investment objective. These conditions also can impact the ability of the Funds to complete creation and redemption transactions and disrupt Fund trading in the secondary market.
Additionally, geopolitical conflict, including, war and armed conflicts (such as Russia’s continued military actions against Ukraine that started in February 2022, the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Houthi movement’s attacks on marine vessels in the Red Sea, and the expansion of such conflicts in surrounding areas), sanctions, acts of terrorism, sustained elevated inflation, supply chain issues or other events could have a significant negative impact on global financial markets and economies. A widespread crisis may also affect the global economy in ways that cannot necessarily be foreseen at the current time. How long such events will last and whether they will continue or recur cannot be predicted. Impacts from these events could have significant impact on a Fund’s performance, and the value of an investment in the Fund may decline significantly.