The J.P. Morgan Kronos+SM Index
The J.P. Morgan Kronos+SM Index (the “Index”) was developed and is maintained and calculated by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”). The Index has been calculated on a “live” basis (i.e., using real-time data) since December 22, 2020. The Index is reported by Bloomberg L.P. under the ticker symbol “JPUSKRNS Index.”
The Index attempts to provide a dynamic rules-based exposure to the S&P 500® Index (the “Constituent”). The Index tracks (a) 0%, 100% or 200% of the price performance of the Constituent (i.e., dividends, if any, are not reflected), where the exposure to the Constituent is determined as described below, (b) a notional cash return (only if the exposure to the Constituent is 0%) or a notional financing cost (only if the exposure to the Constituent is 200%) and (c) the daily deduction of 0.95% per annum (the “Index Deduction”). The Constituent consists of stocks of 500 companies selected to provide a performance benchmark for the U.S. equity markets. For additional information about the Constituent, see “Background on the S&P 500® Index” in the accompanying underlying supplement.
The Index’s exposure to the Constituent is determined based on strategies that reference the following historical tendencies:
●historical outperformance around the turn of the month;
●historical price momentum ahead of monthly index options’ expiry; and
●historical mean reversion into month-end.
Historical turn-of-the-month outperformance. Historically, the performance of the Constituent has tended to be better over the first few and last few days of the month than at other times during the month. There can be no assurance that this outperformance effect will be observed regularly or at all in the future or that any instances of outperformance observed in the future will exceed any instances of underperformance observed in the future.
It has been theorized that this outperformance effect might be due in part to month-end portfolio adjustments by institutions, distributions from pensions and other retirement accounts that are immediately reinvested and monthly investments by retail mutual fund investors through systematic investment plans in the equity securities included in the Constituent, as these purchases may cause the value of the relevant equity securities, and therefore the Constituent, to increase. However, other unidentified factors might contribute to or be primarily responsible for this effect, and there can be no assurance that any factor will continue to exist or continue to cause this effect.
Historical momentum into monthly options expiry. Historically, the performance of the Constituent has tended to exhibit momentum in the third week of each month prior to the scheduled monthly expiry of option contracts on the Constituent, as compared to the remainder of the period following the immediately preceding scheduled monthly expiry and prior to the third week of the relevant month, meaning that the Constituent has tended to continue to increase if it has been increasing and has tended to continue to decrease if it has been decreasing. There can be no assurance that this momentum effect will be observed regularly or at all in the future or that any instances of momentum observed in the future will exceed any instances of mean reversion observed in the future.
Because this effect appears to have been visible in data only since 1983, when the Chicago Board Options Exchange first listed option contracts on the Constituent, it has been theorized this effect could be due in part to systematic call overwriting. A call option contract is a financial contract that gives the option contract buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy an asset or index at a specified price (called the “strike price”) on a specified day or within a specific time period in the future from the option contract seller. In a call overwriting strategy, an investor sells a call option contract on an asset or index where the strike price of the call option is typically higher than the current value of that asset or index.
As option contracts on the Constituent near their expiry, if the Constituent has increased since the immediately preceding scheduled monthly expiry, investors engaged in a call overwriting strategy may buy back their call option contracts at a loss (or let them be exercised at a loss), and sell new call option contracts with higher strikes to market-makers. Under these circumstances, market-makers may buy the equity securities included in the Constituent to hedge their risk, and this buying could cause the level of the Constituent to increase.
As option contracts on the Constituent near their expiry, if the Constituent has decreased since the immediately preceding scheduled monthly expiry, investors engaged in a call overwriting strategy may buy back their call option contracts at a profit (or let them expire at a profit), and sell new call option contracts with lower strikes to market-makers. Under these circumstances, market-makers may sell the equity securities included in the Constituent to hedge their risk, and this selling could cause the level of the Constituent to decline.
However, other unidentified factors might contribute to or be primarily responsible for this effect, and there can be no assurance that any factor will continue to exist or continue to cause this effect.
Historical mean reversion into month-end. Historically, the performance of the Constituent has tended to exhibit mean reversion into the last week of the month, as compared to the preceding portion of that month, meaning that the Constituent has tended to increase if it has been decreasing and has tended to decrease if it has been increasing. There can be no assurance that this mean reverting effect