Operations and Oil Tanker Markets:
The International Energy Agency (“IEA”) estimates global oil consumption for the third quarter of 2024 at 103.6 million barrels per day (“b/d”), up 0.7% from the same quarter in 2023. The estimate for global oil consumption for 2024 is 102.8 million b/d, an increase of 0.8% over the 2023 estimate of 102.0 million b/d. OECD demand in 2024 is estimated to remain unchanged at 45.6 million b/d, while non-OECD demand is estimated to increase by 1.6% to 57.2 million b/d.
Global oil production in the third quarter of 2024 was 102.6 million b/d, a decrease of 0.1 million b/d from the third quarter of 2023. OPEC crude oil production averaged 26.5 million b/d in the third quarter of 2024, down 0.1 million b/d from the second quarter of 2024, and a decrease of 1.0 million b/d from the third quarter of 2023. Non-OPEC production increased by 0.8 million b/d to 70.5 million b/d in the third quarter of 2024 compared with the third quarter of 2023. Oil production in the U.S. of 13.2 million b/d in the third quarter of 2024 remained unchanged from the second quarter of 2024 and increased by 2.1% from the third quarter of 2023.
U.S. refinery throughput increased by 0.5 million b/d to 16.9 million b/d in the third quarter of 2024 compared with the second quarter of 2024. U.S. crude oil imports in the third quarter of 2024 increased by 0.8 million b/d to 7.1 million b/d compared with the third quarter of 2023, with imports from OPEC countries increasing by 0.1 million b/d and imports from non-OPEC countries increasing by 0.7 million b/d.
China’s crude oil imports for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased 2.8%, or 0.3 million b/d, to 11.0 million b/d, compared with the same period in 2023.
Total OECD commercial inventories ended the third quarter of 2024 down 1.3% or 18 million barrels of crude and up 1.5% or 23 million barrels of products, compared with the third quarter of 2023.
During the third quarter of 2024, the tanker fleet of vessels over 10,000 dwt increased, net of vessels recycled, by 1.5 million dwt as the crude fleet increased by 0.8 million dwt, split between Suezmaxes and Aframaxes. The product carrier fleet increased by 0.6 million dwt, all in the MR fleet. Year-over-year, the size of the tanker fleet increased by 5.5 million dwt with the VLCCs, Suezmaxes, Aframaxes, and MRs increasing by 0.6 million dwt, 0.3 million dwt, 2.3 million dwt, and 2.3 million dwt, respectively. The LR1/Panamax fleet remained unchanged.
During the third quarter of 2024, the tanker orderbook increased by 3.0 million dwt overall compared with the second quarter of 2024. The crude tanker orderbook increased by 1.9 million dwt. The VLCC orderbook increased by 1.5 million dwt and the Aframax orderbook increased by 0.3 million dwt. The product carrier orderbook increased by 1.1 million dwt, with increases in the LR1 and MR sectors of 0.3 million dwt and 0.8 million dwt respectively. Year-over-year, the total tanker orderbook increased by 44.8 million dwt, with increases in VLCC, Suezmaxes, Aframaxes, Panamaxes and LR1s of 15.2 million dwt, 7.9 million dwt, 9.1 million dwt, 2.7 million dwt and 10.0 million dwt, respectively.
While VLCC rates held steady during the third quarter, smaller vessel segments experienced decreases from the higher levels achieved during the first and second quarters of 2024. The weaker Chinese economy remains an impediment to stronger rates. Even so, rates remain significantly over 10-year average rates and cash breakeven levels, reflecting the continuing impact of the disruptions in trade flows on tanker demand.
Update on Critical Accounting Estimates and Policies:
The Company’s consolidated financial statements are prepared in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States, which require the Company to make estimates in the application of its accounting policies based on the best assumptions, judgments and opinions of management. For a description of all of the Company’s material accounting policies, see Note 3, “Summary of Significant Accounting Policies,” to the Company’s consolidated financial statements as of and for the year ended December 31, 2023 included in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K. See Note 2, “Significant Accounting Policies,” to