| 13 Historical and Projected Financial Performance Valuation Analysis Note: Financial performance metrics presented are adjusted to exclude non-recurring income and expenses and public company costs. Source: Company filings, the management of the Company Historical and Projected Financial Performance (RMB in thousands) LTM LTM Management Projections 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 3/31/2023 3/31/2024 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P 2028P 2029P 2030P Freight Service ¥5,175,830 ¥5,435,354 ¥4,852,299 ¥5,404,414 ¥4,830,724 ¥5,576,015 ¥6,081,562 ¥6,717,799 ¥7,056,376 ¥7,269,479 ¥7,489,017 ¥7,715,185 ¥7,948,184 Growth (1.4%) 5.0% (10.7%) 11.4% N A 15.4% 12.5% 10.5% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% % of Net Revenue 49.2% 47.6% 62.7% 65.0% 63.1% 65.3% 65.5% 64.6% 63.9% 62.4% 61.3% 60.7% 60.1% Supply Chain Management Service ¥1,912,323 ¥1,815,104 ¥1,822,075 ¥1,858,629 ¥1,853,367 ¥1,829,384 ¥1,684,318 ¥1,768,533 ¥1,848,117 ¥1,922,042 ¥1,998,924 ¥2,068,886 ¥2,130,953 Growth (12.9%) (5.1%) 0.4% 2.0% N A (1.3%) (9.4%) 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% % of Net Revenue 18.2% 15.9% 23.5% 22.4% 24.2% 21.4% 18.1% 17.0% 16.7% 16.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.1% Global Service ¥777,656 ¥1,193,855 ¥916,907 ¥946,514 ¥845,227 ¥1,030,360 ¥1,398,308 ¥1,817,800 ¥2,012,309 ¥2,324,937 ¥2,574,414 ¥2,773,059 ¥2,966,587 Growth 130.8% 53.5% (23.2%) 3.2% N A 21.9% 47.7% 30.0% 10.7% 15.5% 10.7% 7.7% 7.0% % of Net Revenue 7.4% 10.4% 11.8% 11.4% 11.0% 12.1% 15.1% 17.5% 18.2% 19.9% 21.1% 21.8% 22.4% SAAS ¥0 ¥54,820 ¥86,913 ¥97,696 ¥88,082 ¥99,625 ¥116,610 ¥102,366 ¥122,839 ¥141,265 ¥155,392 ¥163,161 ¥171,319 Growth N M N M 58.5% 12.4% N A 13.1% 19.4% (12.2%) 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% % of Net Revenue 0.0% 0.5% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% Ucargo (discontinued) ¥2,519,919 ¥2,809,081 ¥35,979 -¥1 8 ¥16,612 -¥5 ¥0 ¥0 ¥0 ¥0 ¥0 ¥0 ¥0 Growth (2.1%) 11.5% (98.7%) (100.1%) N A (100.0%) (100.0%) N M N M N M N M N M N M % of Net Revenue 23.9% 24.6% 0.5% (0.0%) 0.2% (0.0%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Capital (discontinued) ¥142,506 ¥117,622 ¥29,899 ¥8,609 ¥22,737 ¥7,240 ¥4,153 ¥0 ¥0 ¥0 ¥0 ¥0 ¥0 Growth 14.2% (17.5%) (74.6%) (71.2%) N A (68.2%) (51.8%) N M N M N M N M N M N M % of Net Revenue 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Net Revenue ¥10,528,234 ¥11,425,836 ¥7,744,072 ¥8,315,844 ¥7,656,749 ¥8,542,617 ¥9,284,950 ¥10,406,499 ¥11,039,642 ¥11,657,723 ¥12,217,747 ¥12,720,291 ¥13,217,043 Growth 0.5% 8.5% (32.2%) 7.4% N A 11.6% 11.7% 12.1% 6.1% 5.6% 4.8% 4.1% 3.9% Gross Profit ¥357,969 -¥67,413 -¥129,915 ¥390,672 -¥59,661 ¥453,460 ¥864,633 ¥1,110,987 ¥1,166,959 ¥1,275,698 ¥1,371,445 ¥1,439,367 ¥1,510,577 Margin % 3.4% (0.6%) (1.7%) 4.7% (0.8%) 5.3% 9.3% 10.7% 10.6% 10.9% 11.2% 11.3% 11.4% Adjusted EBITDA -¥792,106 -¥1,249,958 -¥1,233,721 -¥667,854 -¥1,156,341 -¥587,918 -¥84,095 ¥156,719 ¥184,554 ¥251,675 ¥304,452 ¥327,977 ¥353,010 Margin % (7.5%) (10.9%) (15.9%) (8.0%) (15.1%) (6.9%) (0.9%) 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% Growth N M N M N M N M N A N M N M N M 17.8% 36.4% 21.0% 7.7% 7.6% Adjusted EBIT -¥949,600 -¥1,441,323 -¥1,423,105 -¥838,078 -¥1,334,823 -¥757,893 -¥283,984 -¥48,511 -¥21,297 ¥45,706 ¥98,366 ¥121,621 ¥146,561 Margin % (9.0%) (12.6%) (18.4%) (10.1%) (17.4%) (8.9%) (3.1%) (0.5%) (0.2%) 0.4% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% Growth N M N M N M N M N A N M N M N M N M N M 115.2% 23.6% 20.5% Purchase of Fixed Assets ¥311,026 ¥160,012 ¥143,276 ¥69,605 ¥67,201 ¥92,849 ¥104,065 ¥110,396 ¥116,577 ¥122,177 ¥127,203 ¥132,170 % of Net Revenue 3.0% 1.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% % of EBITDA N M N M N M N M N M N M 66.4% 59.8% 46.3% 40.1% 38.8% 37.4% Purchase of Intangible Assets ¥35,940 ¥19,355 ¥32,505 ¥31,631 ¥28,486 ¥26,336 ¥28,969 ¥30,418 ¥31,939 ¥33,536 ¥35,213 ¥36,973 % of Net Revenue 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% % of EBITDA N M N M N M N M N M N M 18.5% 16.5% 12.7% 11.0% 10.7% 10.5% Net Working Capital -¥615,520 -¥817,783 -¥656,194 -¥539,764 -¥376,155 -¥472,436 -¥366,760 -¥387,498 -¥400,554 -¥413,158 -¥427,580 -¥441,356 % of Net Revenue (5.8%) (7.2%) (8.5%) (6.5%) (4.4%) (5.1%) (3.5%) (3.5%) (3.4%) (3.4%) (3.4%) (3.3%) |