Suncor Energy (SU) 40-F2020 FY Annual report (Canada)

EXHIBIT 99.2

Management's Discussion and Analysis for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2020,
dated February 24, 2021

This Management's Discussion and Analysis (this MD&A) should be read in conjunction with Suncor's December 31, 2020 audited Consolidated Financial Statements and the accompanying notes. Additional information about Suncor filed with Canadian securities regulatory authorities and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including quarterly and annual reports and Suncor's Annual Information Form dated February 24, 2021 (the 2020 AIF), which is also filed with the SEC under cover of Form 40-F, is available online at www.sedar.com, www.sec.gov and on our website at www.suncor.com. Information on or connected to our website, even if referred to in this MD&A, does not constitute part of this MD&A.

Suncor Energy Inc. has numerous direct and indirect subsidiaries, partnerships and joint arrangements (collectively, affiliates), which own and operate assets and conduct activities in different jurisdictions. The terms "we", "our", "Suncor", or "the company" are used herein for simplicity of communication and only mean there is an affiliation with Suncor Energy Inc., without necessarily identifying the specific nature of the affiliation. The use of such terms in any statement herein does not mean they apply to Suncor Energy Inc. or any particular affiliate, and does not waive the corporate separateness of any affiliate. For further clarity, Suncor Energy Inc. does not directly operate or own assets in the U.S. For a list of abbreviations that may be used in this MD&A, refer to the Advisories – Common Abbreviations section of this MD&A.

18  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

Basis of Presentation

Unless otherwise noted, all financial information has been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and Canadian generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) as contained within Part 1 of the Canadian Institute of Chartered Professional Accountants Handbook.

All financial information is reported in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise noted. Production volumes are presented on a working-interest basis, before royalties, except for production volumes from the company's Libya operations, which are on an economic basis.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Certain financial measures in this MD&A – namely operating earnings (loss), funds from (used in) operations, return on capital employed (ROCE), Oil Sands operations cash operating costs, Fort Hills cash operating costs, Syncrude cash operating costs, refining and marketing margin, refining operating expense, free funds flow, discretionary free funds flow (deficit), and last-in, first-out (LIFO) inventory valuation methodology and related per share or per barrel amounts – are not prescribed by GAAP. Operating earnings (loss), Oil Sands operations cash operating costs, Fort Hills cash operating costs, Syncrude cash operating costs and LIFO inventory valuation methodology are defined in the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A and reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the Financial Information and Segment Results and Analysis sections of this MD&A. ROCE, funds from (used in) operations, free funds flow, discretionary free funds flow (deficit), refining and marketing margin, and refining operating expense are defined and reconciled, where applicable, to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

Measurement Conversions

Crude oil and natural gas liquids volumes have been converted to mcfe on the basis of one bbl to six mcf in this MD&A. Also, certain natural gas volumes have been converted to boe or mboe on the same basis. Refer to the Advisories – Measurement Conversions section of this MD&A.

Risks and Forward-Looking Information

The company's business, reserves, financial condition and results of operations may be affected by a number of factors, including, but not limited to, the factors described in the Risk Factors section of this MD&A.

This MD&A contains forward-looking information based on Suncor's current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions. This information is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those discussed in this MD&A and Suncor's other disclosure documents filed with Canadian securities regulatory authorities and the SEC, many of which are beyond the company's control. Users of this information are cautioned that actual results may differ materially. Refer to the Advisories – Forward-Looking Information section of this MD&A for information on the material risk factors and assumptions underlying our forward-looking information.

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  19

1. Financial and Operating Summary

Financial Summary

(1)

Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

(2)

Excludes capitalized costs related to major projects in progress. ROCE excluding major projects in progress would have been (3.0%) in 2020, excluding the impacts of impairments of $2.221 billion. ROCE excluding major projects in progress would have been 8.6% in 2019, excluding the impacts of impairments of $3.352 billion and the impacts of a $1.116 billion deferred tax recovery relating to a change in the Alberta corporate income tax rate.

(3)

Excludes capitalized interest of $120 million in 2020, $122 million in 2019, and $156 million in 2018.

(4)

Net debt is equal to total debt less cash and cash equivalents. Total debt includes short-term debt, current portion of long-term debt, current portion of long-term lease liabilities, long-term debt, and long-term lease liabilities.

(5)

2018 excludes the impact of IFRS 16 Leases (IFRS 16), which was prospectively adopted on January 1, 2019, in accordance with the standard, adding $1.792 billion to net debt at December 31, 2019.

20  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

Operating Summary

(1)

Net of transportation costs, but before royalties.

(2)

Beginning in 2020, the company revised the presentation of its price realizations to aggregate price realizations from each asset into the categories of "SCO and diesel" and "Non-upgraded bitumen" to better reflect the integration among the company's assets with no impact to overall price realizations. Comparative periods have been updated to reflect this change.

(3)

Beginning in 2020, the company revised its Non-upgraded bitumen price realization to include midstream activities employed to optimize its logistics capacity and more accurately reflect the performance of the product stream. Comparative periods have been restated to reflect this change.

(4)

Refinery utilization is the amount of crude oil run through crude distillation units, expressed as a percentage of the nameplate capacity of these units.

(5)

Beginning in 2020, refining and marketing margins have been revised to better reflect the refining, product supply and rack forward businesses. Prior periods have been restated to reflect this change.

(6)

Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

Segment Summary

(1)

Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  21

2. Suncor Overview

Suncor is an integrated energy company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The company is strategically focused on developing one of the world's largest petroleum resource basins – Canada's Athabasca oil sands. In addition, Suncor explores for, acquires, develops, produces and markets crude oil in Canada and internationally; the company transports and refines crude oil, and markets petroleum and petrochemical products primarily in Canada. Suncor also operates a renewable energy business and conducts energy trading activities focused principally on the marketing and trading of crude oil, natural gas, byproducts, refined products, and power.

For a description of Suncor's business segments, refer to the Segment Results and Analysis section of this MD&A.

Suncor's Strategy

We aim to maximize shareholder returns by focusing on our operational excellence, capital discipline through investment in high-value projects, and our commitment to environmental stewardship and sustainability. We believe that our balance sheet strength and financial health provide the foundation for our capital allocation framework, supporting long-term value creation and return to shareholders. We believe that Suncor is well positioned to succeed due to the company's competitive advantages: financial strength, a highly efficient, tightly integrated suite of assets, an industry-leading long-life, low-decline oil sands reserves base, and our investment in sustainability, technology and innovation.

Key components of Suncor's strategy include:

•

Free funds flow growth through high-return/value investments – Suncor's growth and development plan is focused on projects and initiatives that are expected to create long-term value for the company through free funds flow growth. The company's significant long-life, low-decline reserves base combined with our industry expertise allows the company to execute improvement strategies at existing assets, such as debottlenecks, the deployment of autonomous haul trucks across our Oil Sands assets, and the interconnecting pipelines between Oil Sands Base and Syncrude. Further structural cost savings are being realized through supply chain optimization initiatives and investments in technology for our marketing and trading business and core business systems, aimed at improving operational efficiencies. In addition, we believe that the company's regional oil sands advantage provides the company with the economies of scale required to realize synergies between assets. This is further enhanced by the agreement in principle by the Syncrude joint venture owners for Suncor to take over as operator, by the end of 2021 which will capitalize on the collective strength of our regional operations and drive operating efficiencies and improve performance.

•

Optimize value through integration and secured market access – From the ground to the gas station, Suncor optimizes profit along each step of the value chain through integration of the company's oil sands assets with its midstream and refining assets. Our broad asset base and operational flexibility allows us to optimize the production of higher value SCO in the upstream, while our extensive logistics assets and sales channels, enhanced by our trading and marketing expertise, drives additional value as equity barrels move down the value chain. Through this midstream and marketing network and our geographical diversity, the company is able to maximize crude production and refinery utilization by securing sales outlets while receiving global-based pricing for the majority of its production.

•

Industry-leading unit costs through operational excellence and reliability – Suncor aims to get the most out of its assets through a focus on operational excellence, which means operating in a way that is safe, reliable, cost-efficient and environmentally responsible. Driving down costs and a continued focus on improved productivity and reliability are expected to help us achieve maximum value from our operations. The company's acceleration of the digital transformation strategy and the implementation of process and technology improvements are foundational to building on our cost reduction targets achieved in 2020.

•

Be an industry leader in sustainable development – Suncor is focused on triple bottom line sustainability, which means leadership and industry collaboration in environmental performance, social responsibility and creating a strong economy. We believe that Suncor's growth will be enhanced by investments in lower carbon energy, and we have made such investments a key priority in achieving our sustainable development goals.

•

Technology and people-enabled – Suncor is focused on shifting our culture and leveraging technology to improve performance and reliability, which are central to our operational excellence journey. Unleashing the full potential of our people and technology will be critical in achieving our environmental, operational and financial goals.

22  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

2020 Highlights

Suncor delivered on annual cost reduction targets, reducing annual operating costs by $1.3 billion (approximately 12%) in 2020, compared to 2019 levels, and reduced annual capital expenditures by $1.9 billion (approximately 33%) in 2020, compared to the original 2020 capital guidance midpoint.

•

Suncor exceeded its previously announced $1.0 billion operating cost reduction target by $300 million, or 30%, through base business reductions and delivering on cost reduction initiatives, including supply chain savings initiatives, lower operating costs at Fort Hills as the company reduced production to keep pace with downstream demand, including temporarily transitioning to a one train operation, and relief provided by the Government of Canada's Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) program, partially offset by COVID-19 response costs.

•

Suncor also met its $1.9 billion capital reduction target in 2020, reducing its capital expenditures to $3.8 billion, which was approximately 33% less than the original 2020 capital guidance midpoint. Targeted capital reductions in 2020 included the deferral and cancellation of projects, the reduction in spending across various assets and increased execution efficiency. The company delivered a number of strategic initiatives within this target that enhanced integration between Suncor and Syncrude, expanded the company's market reach, debottlenecked In Situ facilities and its Edmonton refinery, and reduced structural operating costs by leveraging technology.

Suncor entered the year with a strong investment grade balance sheet and a proven track record of shareholder returns and, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, responded decisively to maintain its financial strength and liquidity.

•

In 2020, the company secured $2.8 billion in additional credit facilities and issued $1.25 billion of 5.00% senior unsecured medium term notes due 2030, US$450 million of 2.80% senior unsecured notes due 2023 and US$550 million of 3.10% senior unsecured notes due 2025. As of December 31, 2020, Suncor had approximately $7.9 billion of liquidity.

•

In 2020, the company paid $1.670 billion in dividends to shareholders and, prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, repurchased $307 million of its own common shares for cancelation.

•

Suncor remains disciplined in its capital allocation and, at current commodity prices, plans to pay down between $1.0 billion and $1.5 billion of debt and repurchase between $500 million and $1.0 billion of the company's shares in 2021, highlighting the company's ability to generate cash flow and confidence in the underlying value of the company. Subsequent to the end of the year, the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) accepted a notice to commence a normal course issuer bid (NCIB) for up to 44,000,000 common shares.

•

Subsequent to 2020, the company reached an agreement to sell its 26.69% working interest in the Golden Eagle Area Development (GEAD) for US$325 million and contingent consideration up to US$50 million. The effective date of the sale is January 1, 2021 and is expected to close no later than the third quarter of 2021, subject to purchaser financing and shareholder approval along with other closing conditions and certain regulatory approvals. The sale reinforces Suncor's continued focus on capital discipline and enables the company to allocate resources to core assets and maximize shareholder returns.

In 2020, the company managed the significant volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic by leveraging the flexibility of its integrated asset base with a continued focus on value over volume across the company's assets.

•

The company achieved the second best year of SCO production in its history with 466,200 bbls/d which reflected a continued focus on value over volume. SCO production was supported by In Situ bitumen production diverted to the upgrader to maximize the production of higher value SCO barrels. The company was able to maximize price realizations by shifting its upstream product mix towards higher priced light crude, which resulted in combined upgrader utilization of 85%.

•

The company was able to maximize its refined product margins by optimizing refinery product mix in response to rapidly shifting demand.

•

Through our regional synergies and asset flexibility, the company continued to maximize the value of its allotted barrels under the mandatory production curtailment program enacted by the Alberta government.

Suncor's Refinery and Marketing (R&M) segment achieved refinery utilization of 88% in 2020, consistently outperforming Canadian refining industry averages⁽¹⁾.

(1)

Source: Canadian Energy Regulator – https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-commodities/crude-oil-petroleum- products/statistics/weekly-crude-run-summary-data.html

•

Suncor leveraged its refinery product mix, midstream logistics flexibility, strong domestic sales network including integration with its retail network, export capabilities, and storage capacity to achieve utilization rates which continued to outperform the Canadian refining industry average in 2020.

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  23

•

Suncor also continues to invest in midstream opportunities to expand the company's market reach and strengthen the company's sales channels, including the expansion of its Burrard product terminal, increased marine vessel activity and additional pipeline arrangements which provide feedstock optionality to our refineries. These actions have further enabled the company to sustain high refinery utilization and crude production rates throughout 2020, despite weakened demand due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

•

Effective January 1, 2021, the company increased nameplate capacity of its Edmonton refinery from 142,000 bbls/d to 146,000 bbls/d as a result of debottlenecking activities.

Advancement of late stage, high-value and low capital economic investment projects with meaningful progress towards Suncor's incremental free funds flow⁽¹⁾ target by 2025.

(1)

Free funds flow is a Non-GAAP financial measure. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

•

In 2020, construction continued on the interconnecting pipelines between Suncor's Oil Sands Base operations and Syncrude. The pipelines provide increased operational flexibility through the ability to transfer bitumen and sour SCO between the two plants, enabling higher utilization. The asset was brought into service in the fourth quarter of 2020.

•

Through the deployment of the Autonomous Haulage System (AHS) at Fort Hills, the company has optimized its operations and expects AHS to further enhance safety, and environmental and operational performance.

•

At Firebag, work to expand the capacity of the facility by 12,000 bbls/d was completed, in the fourth quarter of 2020, enabling the asset to exit the year producing near its new nameplate capacity of 215,000 bbls/d.

Investments in new technologies and renewable energy that lower emissions and provide new sustainable energy sources.

•

In 2020, the company increased its investments in clean technology, including LanzaJet, Inc., a company working to bring sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel to the commercial market, and the Varennes Carbon Recycling facility, a biofuel plant in Varennes, Quebec, that is designed to convert commercial and industrial non-recyclable waste into biofuels and renewable chemicals.

24  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

3. Financial Information

Net (Loss) Earnings

Suncor's net loss in 2020 was $4.319 billion, compared to net earnings of $2.899 billion in 2019. Net (loss) earnings were impacted by the same factors that influenced operating (loss) earnings, which are described below. Other items affecting net (loss) earnings in 2020 and 2019 included:

•

In 2020, the company recorded non-cash after-tax impairment charges of $1.376 billion on its share of the Fort Hills assets, in the Oil Sands segment, and $845 million against its share of the White Rose and Terra Nova assets, in the Exploration and Production (E&P) segment, due to a decline in forecasted crude oil prices as a result of decreased global demand due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the future of the West White Rose Project and changes to their respective capital, operating and production plans.

•

The after-tax unrealized foreign exchange gain on the revaluation of U.S. dollar denominated debt was $286 million in 2020, compared to an after-tax gain of $590 million in 2019.

•

In 2020, in the Oil Sands segment the company recorded a provision to transportation expense for $186 million ($142 million after-tax) related to the Keystone XL pipeline project.

•

During 2019, the company recorded non-cash after-tax impairment charges of $2.803 billion on its share of the Fort Hills assets, in the Oil Sands segment, due to a decline in forecasted heavy crude oil prices and $393 million against White Rose, in the E&P segment, due to increased capital cost estimates at the West White Rose Project.

•

In 2019, Suncor sold its 37% interest in Canbriam Energy Inc. (Canbriam), a private natural gas company, for total proceeds and an equivalent gain of $151 million ($139 million after-tax), in the E&P segment.

•

In 2019, the company recorded an after-tax gain of $48 million in the E&P segment related to the sale of certain non-core assets.

•

In 2019, the company recorded a $1.116 billion deferred income tax recovery associated with the Government of Alberta's enactment of legislation for a staged reduction of the corporate income tax rate from 12% to 8%.

Operating (Loss) Earnings

Consolidated Operating (Loss) Earnings Reconciliation⁽¹⁾

(1)

Non-GAAP financial measure. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

(2)

In 2018, the company recorded a net non-cash loss of $90 million, after-tax, in the E&P segment related to an asset exchange with Canbriam, as a result of the decline in benchmark natural gas prices in B.C., and an after-tax gain of $60 million in the Oil Sands segment on the sale of the company's interest in the Joslyn oil sands mining project.

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  25

Bridge Analysis of Operating Earnings (Loss) ($ millions)⁽¹⁾

(1)

For an explanation of the construction of this bridge analysis, see the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

(2)

The bridge factor for Inventory Valuation is comprised of changes in the first-in, first out (FIFO) inventory valuation and short-term commodity risk management activities reported in the R&M segment, and changes in the intersegment elimination of profit reported in the Corporate and Eliminations segment.

Suncor's consolidated operating loss in 2020 was $2.242 billion, compared to operating earnings of $4.358 billion in the prior year. In 2020, crude oil and refined product realizations decreased significantly, with crude oil and crack spread benchmarks declining by more than 30% compared to the prior year due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and OPEC+ supply issues. The decline in consumer demand for refined products resulted in lower crude oil demand and lower overall upstream production volumes and refinery crude throughput as the company managed its operations to meet demand levels. 2020 results were also impacted by a FIFO inventory valuation loss on the decline in value of refinery feedstock. Operating losses were minimized by the decrease in costs associated with lower production as well as cost reduction initiatives executed in 2020. Operating earnings in 2019 included insurance proceeds related to the company's assets in Libya.

Cash Flow Provided by Operating Activities and Funds from Operations

Funds from operations for 2020 were $3.876 billion, compared to $10.818 billion in 2019 and were impacted by the same factors as operating (loss) earnings described above.

Cash flow provided by operating activities, which includes changes in non-cash working capital, was $2.675 billion in 2020, compared to $10.421 billion in 2019, reflecting a larger use of cash in working capital, compared to the prior year, which was primarily due to a decrease in accounts payable balances associated with lower operating costs and an increase in income tax receivable balances resulting from the carry-back of tax losses, which is expected to be received in late 2021.

Results for 2019 Compared with 2018

Net earnings in 2019 were $2.899 billion, compared to $3.293 billion in 2018. Net earnings were impacted by the same factors impacting operating earnings described below, as well as the net earnings adjustments impacting 2019 and 2018, which are described in detail above.

Suncor's operating earnings in 2019 were $4.358 billion, compared to $4.312 billion in 2018. The increase was primarily a result of improved western Canadian crude oil differentials, including a substantial narrowing of heavy crude and SCO differentials, which more than offset lower benchmark pricing from the prior year. This led to an increase in Oil Sands price realizations and a net favourable inventory valuation change on crude feedstock costs, partially offset by increased deferral of profit on crude oil sales to R&M, and lower refining margins. Operating earnings in 2019 were also positively impacted by higher overall upstream production, attributed to improved reliability at Syncrude and the ramp up of Fort Hills and Hebron throughout 2019, partially offset by the impact of the Government of Alberta's mandatory production curtailments.

These factors were partially offset by an increase in expenses associated with Suncor's increased production in 2019. DD&A expense was further impacted by the transition to IFRS 16, which also increased financing expenses.

26  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

Funds from operations for 2019 were $10.818 billion, compared to $10.172 billion in 2018, and were impacted by the same factors as operating earnings described above, excluding the impact of DD&A expense.

Cash flow provided by operating activities, which includes changes in non-cash working capital, was $10.421 billion in 2019, compared to $10.580 billion in 2018, as 2019 included a use of cash in working capital, compared to a source of cash in working capital in 2018 which was due to a decrease in accounts receivable balances and refinery inventory value associated with the declining price environment in the second half of the year.

Business Environment

Commodity prices, refining crack spreads and foreign exchange rates are important factors that affect the results of Suncor's operations.

(1)

2-1-1 crack spreads are indicators of the refining margin generated by converting two barrels of WTI into one barrel of gasoline and one barrel of diesel. The crack spreads presented here generally approximate the regions into which the company sells refined products through retail and wholesale channels.

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly lowered demand for crude oil and refined products in 2020, resulting in a decrease in crude oil and crack spread benchmarks of more than 30% compared to 2019.

Suncor's sweet SCO price realizations are influenced primarily by the price of WTI at Cushing and by the supply and demand of sweet SCO from Western Canada, which influences SCO differentials. Price realizations for sweet SCO were unfavourably impacted by a decrease in WTI at Cushing to US$39.40/bbl in 2020, from US$57.05/bbl in 2019, and the widening of SCO differentials.

Suncor also produces sour SCO, the price realizations for which are influenced by various crude benchmarks including, but not limited to, MSW at Edmonton and WCS at Hardisty, and which can also be affected by prices negotiated for spot sales. Prices for MSW at Edmonton decreased to $45.60/bbl in 2020 compared to $69.20/bbl in 2019, and prices for WCS at Hardisty decreased to US$26.85/bbl in 2020 from US$44.25/bbl in 2019.

Bitumen production that Suncor does not upgrade is blended with diluent to facilitate delivery on pipeline systems. Net bitumen price realizations are therefore influenced by prices for Canadian heavy crude oil (WCS at Hardisty is a common reference), prices for diluent (Condensate at Edmonton and SCO) and pipeline tolls. Bitumen price realizations can also be affected by bitumen quality and spot sales. Bitumen prices were favourably impacted by narrower heavy crude oil differentials in 2020 compared to 2019.

Suncor's price realizations for production from East Coast Canada and E&P International assets are influenced primarily by the price for Brent crude, which averaged US$41.65/bbl in 2020, compared to US$64.30/bbl in 2019. Due to the nature of cargo shipments at the company's offshore assets, the timing associated with bulk cargo sales can result in price

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  27

realizations that deviate from the average benchmark price over the period.

Suncor's refining and marketing margins are primarily influenced by 2-1-1 benchmark crack spreads, which are industry indicators approximating the gross margin on a barrel of crude oil that is refined to produce gasoline and distillate. Market crack spreads are based on quoted near-month contracts for WTI and spot prices for gasoline and diesel and do not necessarily reflect the margins at a specific refinery. Suncor's realized refining and marketing margins are influenced by actual crude oil feedstock costs, refinery configuration, product mix and realized market prices unique to Suncor's refining and marketing business.

Suncor has developed an indicative 5-2-2-1 index based on publicly available pricing data to more accurately reflect Suncor's realized refining and marketing margin. This internal index is a single value calculated based on a notional five barrels of crude oil of varying grades refined to produce two barrels each of gasoline and distillate and one barrel of secondary product to approximate Suncor's unique set of refinery configurations, overall crude slate and product mix, and the benefit of its location, quality and grade differentials and marketing margins. The internal index is calculated by taking the product value of refined products less the crude value of refinery feedstock excluding the impact of FIFO inventory accounting methodology. The product value incorporates the New York Harbor 2-1-1 crack, Chicago 2-1-1 crack, WTI benchmarks and seasonal factors. The seasonal factor applies an incremental US$6.50/bbl in the first and fourth quarters and US$5.00/bbl in the second and third quarters and reflects the location, quality and grade differentials for refined products sold in the company's core markets during the winter and summer months, respectively. The crude value incorporates the SYN, WCS and WTI benchmarks.

Crack spreads are based on current crude feedstock prices, whereas actual earnings are accounted for on a FIFO basis in accordance with IFRS where a delay exists between the time that feedstock is purchased and when it is processed and when products are sold to a third party. A FIFO loss normally reflects a declining price environment for crude oil and finished products, whereas FIFO gains reflect an increasing price environment for crude oil and finished products. The company's realized refining and marketing margins are also presented on a LIFO basis, which is consistent with how industry benchmarks and the Suncor 5-2-2-1 index are calculated and with how management evaluates performance.

In 2020, the 2-1-1 benchmark crack spreads declined significantly compared to the prior year quarter due to decreased demand for transportation fuels. The Suncor 5-2-2-1 index was US$19.95/bbl in 2020, compared to US$25.90/bbl in 2019, impacted by lower benchmark cracking margins and narrowing crude differentials.

Natural gas used in Suncor's Oil Sands and Refining operations is primarily referenced to Alberta spot prices at AECO. The average AECO benchmark increased to $2.25/mcf in 2020, from $1.75/mcf in the prior year.

Excess electricity produced in Suncor's Oil Sands operations business is sold to the Alberta Electric System Operator, with the proceeds netted against the Oil Sands operations cash operating costs per barrel metric. The Alberta power pool price decreased to an average of $46.70/MWh in 2020 from $54.90/MWh in the prior year.

The majority of Suncor's revenues from the sale of oil and natural gas commodities are based on prices that are determined by or referenced to U.S. dollar benchmark prices. The majority of Suncor's expenditures are realized in Canadian dollars. A decrease in the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar will increase the revenues received from the sale of commodities. An increase in the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar will decrease revenues received from the sale of commodities. In 2020, the Canadian dollar remained unchanged in relation to the U.S. dollar as the average exchange rate for both 2020 and 2019 was US$0.75 per one Canadian dollar.

Conversely, some of Suncor's assets and liabilities, notably 65% of the company's debt, are denominated in U.S. dollars and translated to Suncor's reporting currency (Canadian dollars) at each balance sheet date. An increase in the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar from the previous balance sheet date decreases the amount of Canadian dollars required to settle U.S. dollar denominated obligations.

28  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

Economic Sensitivities⁽¹⁾⁽²⁾

The following table illustrates the estimated effects that changes in certain factors would have had on 2020 net loss and funds from operations⁽³⁾ if the listed changes had occurred.

(1)

Each line item in this table shows the effects of a change in that variable only, with other variables being held consistent.

(2)

Changes for a variable imply that all such similar variables are impacted, such that Suncor's average price realizations increase uniformly. For instance, "Crude oil +US$1.00/bbl" implies that price realizations influenced by WTI, Brent, SCO, WCS, par crude at Edmonton and condensate all increase by US$1.00/bbl.

(3)

Non-GAAP financial measure. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

(4)

Excludes the foreign exchange impact on U.S. dollar denominated debt.

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  29

4. Segment Results and Analysis

Suncor has classified its operations into the following segments:

Oil Sands

Suncor's Oil Sands segment, with assets located in the Athabasca oil sands of northeast Alberta, produces bitumen from mining and in situ operations. Bitumen is either upgraded into SCO for refinery feedstock and diesel fuel, or blended with diluent for refinery feedstock or direct sale to market through the company's midstream infrastructure and its marketing activities. The segment includes the marketing, supply, transportation and risk management of crude oil, natural gas, power and byproducts. The Oil Sands segment includes:

•

Oil Sands operations refer to Suncor's owned and operated mining, extraction, upgrading, in situ and related logistics, blending and storage assets in the Athabasca oil sands region. Oil Sands operations consist of:

•

Oil Sands Base operations include the Millennium and North Steepbank mining and extraction operations, integrated upgrading facilities known as Upgrader 1 and Upgrader 2, and the associated infrastructure for these assets – including the bi-directional interconnecting pipelines between Suncor's Oil Sands Base operations and Syncrude and the utilities, energy, reclamation and storage facilities.

•

In Situ operations include oil sands bitumen production from Firebag and MacKay River and supporting infrastructure, including central processing facilities, cogeneration units, product transportation infrastructure, diluent import capabilities, storage assets and a cooling and blending facility. In Situ also includes development opportunities which may support future in situ production, including Meadow Creek (75%), Lewis (100%), OSLO (77.78%), Gregoire (100%), various interests in Chard (25% to 50%), and a non-operated interest in Kirby (10%). In Situ production is either upgraded by Oil Sands Base or blended with diluent and marketed directly to customers.

•

Fort Hills includes Suncor's 54.11% interest in Fort Hills, which the company operates, and the East Tank Farm Development (ETFD) in which Suncor holds a 51% interest and operates.

•

Syncrude refers to Suncor's 58.74% non-operated interest in the oil sands mining and upgrading operation. During 2020, the Syncrude joint venture owners reached an agreement in principle for Suncor to take over as operator of the Syncrude asset by the end of 2021.

Exploration and Production

Suncor's E&P segment consists of offshore operations off the east coast of Canada and in the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Norwegian North Sea and onshore assets in Libya and Syria. This segment also includes the marketing and risk management of crude oil and natural gas.

•

E&P Canada operations include Suncor's 37.675% working interest in Terra Nova, which Suncor operates. Production at Terra Nova has been shut in since the fourth quarter of 2019 and the company is evaluating with all stakeholders an economically viable path forward with a safe and reliable return to operations. Suncor also holds non-operated interests in Hibernia (20% in the base project and 19.190% in the Hibernia Southern Extension Unit (HSEU)), White Rose (27.5% in the base project and 26.125% in the extensions), and Hebron (21.034%). In addition, the company holds interests in several exploration licences and significant discovery licences offshore Newfoundland and Labrador.

•

E&P International operations include Suncor's non-operated interests in Buzzard (29.89%), the GEAD (26.69%), Oda (30%), the Fenja project (17.5%), and the Rosebank future development project (40%). Buzzard, Golden Eagle, and Rosebank are located in the U.K. sector of the North Sea, while Oda and the Fenja project are located in the Norwegian North Sea and the Norwegian Sea, respectively. In addition, Suncor owns, pursuant to exploration and production sharing agreements (EPSAs), working interests in the exploration and development of oilfields in the Sirte Basin in Libya, although production in Libya remained partially shut in throughout 2020 due to continued political unrest. The timing of a return to normal operations in Libya remains uncertain. Suncor also owns, pursuant to a production sharing contract (PSC), an interest in the Ebla gas development in Syria, which has been suspended, indefinitely, since 2011 due to political unrest in the country. Subsequent to the end of the year, the company reached an agreement to sell its 26.69% working interest in the GEAD. The effective date of the sale is January 1, 2021 and is expected to close no later than the third quarter of 2021, subject to purchaser financing and shareholder approval along with other closing conditions and certain regulatory approvals.

Refining and Marketing

Suncor's Refining and Marketing segment consists of two primary operations, the refining and supply and marketing operations discussed below, as well as the infrastructure

30  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

supporting the marketing, supply and risk management of refined products, crude oil, natural gas, power and byproducts. This segment also includes the trading of crude oil, refined products, natural gas and power.

•

Refining and Supply operations refine crude oil and intermediate feedstock into a wide range of petroleum and petrochemical products. Refining and Supply consists of:

•

Eastern North America operations include a 137 mbbls/d refinery located in Montreal, Quebec and an 85 mbbls/d refinery located in Sarnia, Ontario.

•

Western North America operations include a 146 mbbls/d refinery located in Edmonton, Alberta (increased from 142 mbbls/d at December 31, 2020) and a 98 mbbls/d refinery in Commerce City, Colorado.

•

Other Refining and Supply assets include interests in a petrochemical plant and a sulphur recovery facility in Montreal, Quebec, product pipelines and terminals throughout Canada and the U.S., and the St. Clair ethanol plant in Ontario.

•

Marketing operations sell refined petroleum products to retail customers through a combination of company owned Petro Canada™ and Sunoco™ locations and branded dealers in Canada and company owned locations in the US marketing under other international brands. The company's marketing operations also sells refined petroleum products through a nationwide commercial road transportation network in Canada, and to other commercial and industrial customers, including other retail sellers, in Canada and the U.S.

Corporate and Eliminations

The Corporate and Eliminations segment includes the company's investments in renewable energy projects and other activities not directly attributable to any other operating segment.

•

Renewable Energy includes interests in four wind farm operations in Ontario and Western Canada: Adelaide, Chin Chute, Magrath and Sunbridge as well as the Forty Mile Wind Power Project, which was restarted in early 2021 and is currently planned for completion in late 2022 after it was temporarily paused during 2020.

•

Corporate activities include stewardship of Suncor's debt and borrowing costs, expenses not allocated to the company's businesses, and investments in clean technology, such as Suncor's investment in Enerkem Inc. (Enerkem), LanzaJet, Inc., and the Varennes Carbon Recycling facility.

•

Intersegment revenues and expenses are removed from consolidated results in Eliminations. Intersegment activity includes the sale of product between the company's segments, primarily relating to crude refining feedstock sold from Oil Sands to Refining and Marketing.

Oil Sands

2020 Highlights

•

The company achieved the second best year of SCO production in its history with 466,200 bbls/d, which reflected its continued focus on value over volume. SCO production was supported by In Situ bitumen production diverted to the upgrader to maximize the production of higher value SCO barrels. The company was able to maximize price realizations by shifting its upstream product mix towards higher priced light crude, which resulted in combined upgrader utilization of 85%.

•

The company exceeded its company-wide operating cost reduction targets, achieving a reduction in Oil Sands operating costs of approximately $850 million or 11% from the prior year, primarily as a result of base business reductions and delivering on cost reduction initiatives. These initiatives included enhancements to our supply chain model as well as lower structural operating costs at Fort Hills as the company reduced production to keep pace with downstream demand, including temporarily transitioning operations to one primary extraction train.

•

The company met its capital cost reduction targets, which included a reduction in capital spend at Oil Sands of approximately $800 million or 23% from the prior year. This was achieved by shifting the focus to sustaining projects designed to maintain safe and reliable operations and reducing economic spend.

•

In 2020, construction continued on the interconnecting pipelines between Suncor's Oil Sands Base operations and Syncrude. The pipelines provide increased operational flexibility through the ability to transfer bitumen and sour SCO between the two plants, enabling higher utilization. The asset was brought into service in the fourth quarter of 2020.

•

During 2020, the Syncrude joint venture owners reached an agreement in principle for Suncor to take over as operator of the Syncrude asset by the end of 2021. Suncor, together with the other Syncrude joint venture owners, will continue to drive operating efficiencies, improve performance and develop regional synergies through integration.

•

At Firebag, work to expand the capacity of the facility by 12,000 bbls/d was completed, enabling the asset to produce near its new nameplate capacity of 215,000 bbls/d exiting the year.

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  31

Strategy and Investment Update

Suncor holds one of the largest resource positions in the Athabasca oil sands. The company has developed a unique asset base within the Athabasca oil sands and has established a regional advantage given the close proximity of the company's assets to one another, which the company can leverage to maximize the value of its production volumes. Management is committed to delivering safe, reliable, low-cost production, while moving forward in the areas of technology and innovation and environmental sustainability. The Oil Sands regional advantage is strengthened by the company's marketing and trading expertise, including the midstream and logistics network which secures market access, optimizes price realizations associated with the marketing of crude oil, byproducts and natural gas supply, manages inventory levels, and limits the impacts of external market factors, including pipeline disruptions, lack of egress or outages at refining customers.

The primary focus for both cost management and capital discipline in 2021 will be to continue efforts to sustainably reduce controllable operating costs through implementation of digital technologies that will facilitate the transition to the workplace of the future, bolster operational excellence and drive additional value. Through the acceleration of Suncor's transformation, the company continues to work to reduce the cost structure of running its business while increasing productivity. Capital allocation continues to focus on asset sustainment and maintenance projects designed to maintain safe and reliable operations, as well as advancing high-value economic investment projects.

The company continues to invest in projects that are economically robust, sustainably minded and technologically progressive. Looking ahead, Suncor expects to continue to advance incremental debottlenecks to maximize the value of the Firebag asset. Debottlenecking capacity and timing will depend on economic conditions, supported by integrated well pad development and Solvent SAGD technologies. Additional technology projects, including the continued deployment of AHS, and innovative tailings technology advancements, including Permanent Aquatic Storage Structure, demonstrate the importance technology and innovation have in increasing efficiency and lowering operating costs while improving our environmental and safety performance. These initiatives, combined with continued advancement of digital technologies, will contribute in part to the company's incremental free funds flow⁽¹⁾ target.

The company's ability to leverage technology and innovation is at the core of our strategy supporting our financial, social and environmental goals. The investments to replace the coke-fired boilers with a cogeneration facility at Oil Sands Base is expected to provide reliable steam generation required for Suncor's extraction and upgrading, at a lower cost and with significantly lower carbon emissions. The facility is also expected to generate electricity that will be transmitted to Alberta's power grid, lower the carbon intensity of the Alberta power grid while delivering value to Suncor. Construction of the cogeneration facility at Oil Sands Base was placed on hold in 2020 but has been restarted in 2021.

At Syncrude, planned economic spend in 2021 includes the Mildred Lake Extension project, which is expected to sustain Syncrude's current production levels by extending the life of the North Mine using existing extraction and upgrading facilities while minimizing the environmental impacts of building new infrastructure. The project is expected to come online in 2025.

Suncor remains committed to increasing reliability and enhancing the integration of our existing assets. During 2020, the Syncrude joint venture owners reached an agreement in principle for Suncor to take over as operator of the Syncrude asset by the end of 2021. Suncor, together with the other Syncrude joint venture owners, will continue to drive operating efficiencies, improve performance and develop regional synergies through integration, which will further support Syncrude's ability to achieve its cost and productivity targets. In addition, in 2021, the joint venture owners intend to focus on optimizing transfers on the interconnecting pipelines between Suncor's Oil Sands Base and Syncrude.

The Oil Sands capital program in 2021 is heavily weighted towards asset sustainment and maintenance, which includes significant planned maintenance at both Oil Sands operations, including a five-year turnaround at Oil Sands Base Upgrader 2, and Syncrude, with maintenance at its largest coker.

(1)

Free funds flow is a Non-GAAP financial measure. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

32  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

Financial Highlights

(1)

In 2019, the company recorded after-tax impairment charges of $2.803 billion on its share of the Fort Hills assets due to continued volatility in the crude oil price environment, resulting in a decline in forecasted long-term heavy crude oil prices.

(2)

In 2018, the company recorded an after-tax gain of $60 million on the sale of the company's interest in the Joslyn oil sands mining project.

(3)

In 2019, the company recorded a $910 million deferred income tax recovery in the Oil Sands segment associated with the Government of Alberta's substantive enactment of legislation for the staged reduction of the corporate income tax rate from 12% to 8%.

(4)

Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

Bridge Analysis of Operating Earnings (Loss) ($ millions)⁽¹⁾

(1)

For an explanation of the construction of this bridge analysis, see the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

The Oil Sands segment had an operating loss of $2.278 billion in 2020, compared to operating earnings of $1.622 billion in 2019. The decrease was primarily due to lower realized crude prices, as crude benchmarks decreased by approximately 30% compared to the prior year as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Operating earnings were also impacted by lower production volumes, as the company maximized volumes to the upgrader, reduced production to keep pace with downstream demand, and incurred higher unplanned maintenance compared to the prior year. These factors were partially offset by the decrease in operating, selling and general expenses, associated with lower

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  33

production and the company's continued cost reduction initiatives, and lower royalties.

Oil Sands had a net loss of $3.796 billion in 2020, compared to $427 million in 2019, and was impacted by the same factors as operating (loss) earnings described above. In addition, 2020 net earnings included the impact of a non-cash after-tax impairment charge of $1.376 billion on its share of the Fort Hills assets due to a decline in forecasted crude oil prices as a result of decreased global demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic and changes to its capital, operating and production plans. In 2020, the company also recorded a provision to transportation expense for $186 million ($142 million after-tax) related to the Keystone XL pipeline project. 2019 net earnings included the impact of a non-cash impairment charge of $2.803 billion after-tax on the company's share of the Fort Hills assets, partially offset by a one-time deferred income tax recovery of $910 million associated with a staged reduction to the Alberta corporate income tax rate.

Funds from operations for the Oil Sands segment were $1.986 billion in 2020, compared to $6.061 billion in 2019, and were influenced by the same factors that impacted operating earnings (loss).

Production Volumes⁽¹⁾⁽²⁾

(1)

Bitumen from Oil Sands Base operations is upgraded, while bitumen from In Situ operations is upgraded or sold directly to customers. Yields of SCO from Suncor's upgrading processes are approximately 79% of bitumen feedstock input. Yields of SCO from Syncrude's upgrading processes are approximately 85% of bitumen feedstock input.

(2)

Beginning in 2020, the company revised the presentation of its production volumes to aggregate production from each asset into the categories of "Upgraded production" and "Non-upgraded bitumen production" to better reflect the integration among the company's assets with no impact to overall production volumes. Comparative periods have been updated to reflect this change.

SCO production decreased to 466,200 bbls/d in 2020 from 485,600 bbls/d in 2019, marking the second best year of SCO production in the company's history. During 2020, the company achieved a combined upgrader utilization rate of 85% compared to 88% in the prior year, reflecting lower volumes at Syncrude as planned maintenance activities were optimized in response to a weaker business environment resulting in reduced production. 2020 production was also impacted by an operational incident at the secondary extraction facilities at Oil Sands Base, which was partially mitigated by increased In Situ bitumen production diverted to the upgrader to maximize the production of higher value SCO barrels. As a result, overall Oil Sands production was reduced by the yield loss associated with upgrading In Situ bitumen to SCO. Despite the impact on our production volumes and cost per barrel metrics, the result of this strategy had a positive impact on overall funds flow and reflects our value over volume approach.

Non-upgraded bitumen production decreased to 127,200 bbls/d in 2020 from 184,800 bbls/d in 2019, as Fort Hills temporarily transitioned to one primary extraction train, bitumen production from Firebag was diverted to the upgrader to maximize value over volume, maintenance activities were completed at Firebag to increase the nameplate capacity of the facility and lower production at MacKay River as a result of an outage that occurred in late 2019. MacKay River returned to operations early in the second quarter of 2020, and was fully ramped up to nameplate capacity in the fourth quarter of 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, Fort Hills commenced the phased ramp up to two primary extraction trains providing additional volumes at low incremental operating costs and expects to be operating at full rates by the end of 2021. Building on Suncor's commitment to operational excellence, the company exited the year with strong In Situ bitumen production, with both Firebag and MacKay River operating at near nameplate capacity.

Throughout 2020, Suncor continued to maintain its focus on value over volume, leveraging its broad asset base and operational flexibility to maximize the value of its allotted barrels under the Province of Alberta's mandatory curtailment program. The company optimized the transfer of its allotted curtailment credits among the company's assets, which helped the company achieve the second best year of SCO production in its history. Late in 2020, the Alberta government made the decision to suspend monthly limits on production under the curtailment system, effective December 2020.

Sales Volumes and Mix⁽¹⁾

(1)

Beginning in 2020, the company revised the presentation of its sales volumes to aggregate sales from each asset into the categories of "SCO and diesel" and "Non-upgraded bitumen" to better reflect the integration among the company's assets with no impact to overall sales volumes. Comparative periods have been updated to reflect this change.

34  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

SCO and diesel volumes decreased to 467,900 bbls/d in 2020, compared to 483,600 bbls/d in 2019, reflecting the same factors impacting production volumes.

Non-upgraded bitumen decreased to 125,600 bbls/d in 2020, from 187,500 bbls/d in the prior year, consistent with the decrease in production.

Price Realizations⁽¹⁾⁽²⁾

(1)

Beginning in 2020, the company revised the presentation of its price realizations to aggregate price realizations from each asset into the categories of "SCO and diesel" and "Non-upgraded bitumen" to better reflect the integration among the company's assets with no impact to overall price realizations. Comparative periods have been updated to reflect this change.

(2)

Beginning in 2020, the company revised its "Non-upgraded bitumen" price realization to include midstream activities employed to optimize its logistics capacity and more accurately reflect the performance of the product stream. Comparative periods have been restated to reflect this change.

In 2020, Oil Sands price realizations were impacted by a significant decline in demand due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and OPEC+ supply issues at the beginning of 2020. Price realizations stabilized through the year as benchmarks improved following increased demand, optimism relating to vaccine rollouts and OPEC+ supply management.

Royalties

Royalties were lower in 2020 relative to 2019, primarily due to lower crude price realizations and sales volumes.

Expenses and Other Factors

Total operating and transportation expenses for 2020 were lower relative to 2019, as described in detail below. See the Cash Operating Costs section below for further details.

In 2020, the relief provided under the Government of CEWS program, safe-mode costs associated with the deferral of capital projects and additional costs incurred in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have been included in operating and transportation expenses by asset. These recoveries and costs, however, have been excluded from the company's cash operating costs per barrel metrics for comparability purposes.

At Oil Sands operations, operating costs decreased compared to the prior year, primarily due to lower sales volumes, cost reduction initiatives and lower planned maintenance costs, partially offset by an increase in natural gas prices.

At Fort Hills, operating costs in 2020 decreased when compared to the prior year, primarily due to structural and variable cost savings associated with the temporary transition to one primary extraction train in the middle of the year. The structural cost savings were sustained as the asset completed its phased ramp up to two primary extraction trains in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Syncrude operating costs in 2020 decreased compared to the prior year, primarily due to cost reduction initiatives and lower planned maintenance costs.

Oil Sands transportation costs in 2020 decreased from the prior year, primarily due to lower sales volumes.

DD&A expense for 2020 increased when compared to 2019 due to higher derecognition charges of property, plant and equipment and exploration and evaluation assets in 2020, mainly due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  35

Cash Operating Costs

(1)

Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

(2)

Significant non-production costs include, but are not limited to, share-based compensation expense and research expenses. In addition, for 2020, non-production costs include safe-mode costs associated with the deferral of capital projects and additional costs incurred in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Non-production costs in 2020 also include the relief provided under the CEWS program. Non-production costs at Fort Hills and Syncrude also include, but are not limited to, excess power revenue from cogeneration units and an adjustment to reflect internally produced diesel from Oil Sands operations at the cost of production.

(3)

Oil Sands operations excess power capacity and other includes, but is not limited to, the operational revenue impacts of excess power from cogeneration units and the natural gas expense recorded as part of a non-monetary arrangement involving a third-party processor.

(4)

Both Oil Sands operations and Syncrude produce diesel, which is internally consumed in mining operations, and Fort Hills and Syncrude use internally produced diesel from Oil Sands Base within their mining operations. In 2020, Oil Sands operations production volumes included 8,600 bbls/d of internally consumed diesel, of which 7,000 bbls/d was consumed at Oil Sands Base, 1,300 bbls/d was consumed at Fort Hills and 300 bbls/d was consumed at Syncrude. Syncrude production volumes included 2,600 bbls/d of internally consumed diesel. In addition, Oil Sands operations includes 80 bbls/d of SCO that was transferred to Suncor's share of Syncrude through the interconnecting pipelines.

(5)

Beginning in 2020, Oil Sands operations cash operating costs are based on production volumes, which include internally consumed diesel produced at Oil Sands Base and consumed at Fort Hills, Syncrude and Oil Sands Base, while all the prior periods presented exclude internally consumed diesel at Oil Sands Base from production volumes. Prior periods were not restated due to the immaterial impact of the change in presentation. Also, beginning in 2020, Syncrude cash operating costs are based on production volumes, which include internally consumed diesel, while all the prior periods presented here exclude internally consumed diesel from production. Prior periods were not restated due to the immaterial impact of the change in presentation.

(6)

Beginning in 2020, the company revised the methodology for calculating Syncrude cash operating costs to better align with the Oil Sands operations and Fort Hills cash operating costs methodology. Prior period Syncrude cash operating costs had previously included future development costs and have been restated to reflect this change.

(1)

Oil Sands operations cash operating costs, Fort Hills cash operating costs and Syncrude cash operating costs are a non-GAAP financial measure. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

Oil Sands operations cash operating costs per barrel⁽¹⁾ in 2020 were comparable to the prior year as lower maintenance costs and cost reduction initiatives were offset by lower production volumes and higher natural gas costs. Total Oil Sands operations cash operating costs decreased to $3.934 billion from $4.267 billion in the prior year.

Fort Hills cash operating costs per barrel⁽¹⁾ averaged $32.80 in 2020, compared to $26.15 in 2019, reflecting lower production as Fort Hills temporarily moved to one primary extraction train in the middle of the year, as the company managed production to keep pace with reduced downstream demand, partially offset by a reduction in costs.

Syncrude cash operating costs per barrel⁽¹⁾ decreased to $33.80 in 2020, compared to $36.75 in the previous year, due to cost reduction initiatives and lower maintenance costs. Suncor's share of total Syncrude cash operating costs decreased to $2.050 billion from $2.311 billion in 2019.

In 2020, non-production costs across all assets, which are excluded from cash operating costs, were lower than the prior year, primarily due to CEWS and lower share-based compensation expense, partially offset by safe-mode and COVID-19 response costs.

36  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

Non-Cash Asset Impairment

During the first quarter of 2020, the company recorded an impairment of $1.376 billion (net of taxes of $0.445 billion) on its share of Fort Hills due to a decline in forecasted crude oil prices as a result of decreased global demand due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and changes to its capital, operating and production plans. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the Fort Hills partners approved the phased restart of the second primary extraction train, which restarted earlier than what was assumed in the first quarter impairment test. As such, the company performed an impairment reversal assessment as at December 31, 2020. Based on the following asset-specific assumptions an impairment reversal was not required:

•

WCS price forecast of US$32.00/bbl in 2021, US$41.15/bbl in 2022, US$47.50/bbl in 2023 and US$49.50/bbl in 2024, escalating at approximately 2% per year thereafter over the life of the project up to 2064, adjusted for asset-specific location and quality differentials;

•

the company's share of production averaging 74,000 bbls/d through 2022 while the Fort Hills Project operates on two primary extraction trains but at a reduced capacity, and then ranging from 97,000 to 105,000 bbls/d over the remaining life of the project;

•

cash operating costs averaging $25.50/bbl through 2022 while the Fort Hills Project operates on two primary extraction trains but at a reduced capacity, and then ranging from $19.00/bbl to $23.00/bbl thereafter as the project returns to full capacity over the remaining life of the project (expressed in real dollars);

•

foreign exchange rate of US$0.76 per one Canadian dollar in 2021, and US$0.80 per one Canadian dollar thereafter; and

•

risk-adjusted discount rate of 7.5% (after-tax).

Positive factors, including an increase to forecasted production as a result of the restart of the second primary extraction train, improved WCS price forecast in the next two years, and lower operating costs were offset by lower long-term prices and the negative impact from a strengthening Canadian dollar. The recoverable amount of the Fort Hills cash generating unit (CGU) was $5.7 billion as at December 31, 2020, which indicated that no impairment reversal was required.

The recoverable amount estimate is most sensitive to price and discount rate. A 5% average increase in price over the life of the project would have resulted in an impairment reversal amount of approximately $1.0 billion (after-tax) on the company's share of the Fort Hills assets. A 1% decrease in the discount rate would have resulted in an impairment reversal amount of approximately $0.9 billion (after-tax) on the company's share of the Fort Hills assets.

Planned Maintenance

The company plans to commence maintenance at Upgrader 1 late in the first quarter of 2021. Additional maintenance at Oil Sands Base Upgrader 1 is scheduled for the second and third quarters of 2021. The five-year planned maintenance turnaround at Oil Sands Base Upgrader 2 is scheduled for the second quarter of 2021 as is the planned maintenance at the largest Syncrude coker. The anticipated impact of these maintenance events has been reflected in the company's 2021 guidance.

Exploration and Production

2020 Highlights

•

E&P production was 101,700 bbls/d in 2020 compared to 106,800 bbls/d in 2019. Production highlights included increased production at Hebron, with five new production wells coming online in 2020 and increased volumes at Oda.

•

In 2020, capital expenditures and operating costs in E&P were reduced by approximately 50% and 10%, respectively, compared to the prior year, primarily as a result of the company's continued focus on cost reduction initiatives and deferral of capital projects including the West White Rose Project and the Terra Nova asset life extension (ALE).

•

Economic investment capital included development drilling at Golden Eagle, Buzzard and Oda and development work at Fenja and Buzzard Phase 2 intended to extend the productive life of existing fields.

•

Subsequent to 2020, the company reached an agreement to sell its 26.69% working interest in the GEAD for US$325 million and contingent consideration up to US$50 million. The effective date of the sale is January 1, 2021 and is expected to close no later than the third quarter of 2021, subject to purchaser financing and shareholder approval along with other closing conditions and certain regulatory approvals. The sale reinforces Suncor's continued focus on capital discipline and enables the company to allocate resources to core assets and maximize shareholder returns.

Strategy and Investment Update

The E&P segment delivers geographically diversified cash flows and focuses primarily on low-cost projects that deliver significant returns, cash flow and long-term value. The E&P business is strengthened by the company's marketing and trading expertise, which secures market access, optimizes price realizations, manages inventory levels and limits the impacts of external market factors.

The company continues to exercise capital discipline, carefully evaluating future projects and being disciplined in the deployment of capital in a constrained environment. At

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  37

Terra Nova, the ALE project was deferred in 2020 and the company safely preserved the floating production storage and offloading unit quayside until an economically viable path forward with a safe and reliable return to operations can be determined. Subsequent to the end of the year, Suncor and the Terra Nova joint venture partners, together with the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, agreed to a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding, which provides for a financial commitment by the government, including a modified royalty regime, in support of continued operations. The ALE project is currently being evaluated with owners and all stakeholders to determine the best option to integrate and optimize potential funding to recover the remaining resources from the Terra Nova project.

In 2020, the operator of the West White Rose Project announced a full project review given the continued market uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and has moved the project into safekeeping mode, along with cancelling the 2021 construction season. While the White Rose asset is currently producing, there is considerable doubt regarding the future of the West White Rose Project. Discussions are ongoing with the operator and various levels of government to determine the future of the project. The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador has agreed to provide some support for the West White Rose Project in 2021.

The company has ongoing development activities offshore the east coast of Canada and in the U.K. North Sea, intended to leverage existing facilities and infrastructure to provide incremental production and extend the productive life of existing fields. These activities are planned to continue in 2021, but are expected to be limited to development drilling at Hebron and Oda, with continued development work at Buzzard Phase 2 and the Fenja project in Norway. The Rosebank project is currently in the pre-sanction phase.

Subsequent to 2020, the company reached an agreement to sell its 26.69% working interest in the GEAD for US$325 million and contingent consideration up to US$50 million. The effective date of the sale is January 1, 2021 and is expected to close no later than the third quarter of 2021, subject to purchaser financing and shareholder approval along with other closing conditions and certain regulatory approvals.

Financial Highlights

(1)

Production, revenues and royalties from the company's Libya operations have been presented in the E&P section of this MD&A on an economic basis and exclude an equal and offsetting gross up of revenues and royalties of $48 million in 2020 and $303 million in 2019, which is required for presentation purposes in the company's financial statements under the working-interest basis.

(2)

In 2019, the company recorded an after-tax impairment charge of $393 million against White Rose due to increased capital cost estimates at the West White Rose Project.

(3)

2019 included an after-tax gain of $48 million in the E&P segment related to the sale of certain non-core assets. Also in 2019, Suncor sold its 37% interest in Canbriam for total proceeds and an equivalent gain of $151 million ($139 million after-tax), which had previously been written down to nil in 2018 following the company's assessment of forward natural gas prices and the impact on estimated future cash flows. In 2018, the company recorded a net non-cash loss of $90 million, after-tax, related to an asset exchange with Canbriam.

(4)

In 2019, the company recorded a $70 million deferred income tax recovery in the E&P segment associated with the Government of Alberta's substantive enactment of legislation for the staged reduction of the corporate income tax rate from 12% to 8%.

(5)

Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

38  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

Bridge Analysis of Operating Earnings ($ millions)⁽¹⁾

(1)

For an explanation of the construction of this bridge analysis, see the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

Operating earnings were $13 million for E&P in 2020, compared to $1.141 billion in the prior year, with the decrease due to significantly lower realized crude prices due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in crude oil benchmarks decreasing by more than 30%, and lower sales volumes, partially offset by the decrease in costs associated with lower production as well as cost reduction initiatives executed in 2020. Operating earnings in 2019 included insurance proceeds related to the company's assets in Libya.

E&P had a net loss of $832 million in 2020, compared to net earnings of $1.005 billion in 2019, and was impacted by the same factors as operating earnings described above. In addition, the net loss in 2020 included non-cash after-tax impairment charges of $845 million against its share of the White Rose and Terra Nova assets due to a decline in forecasted crude oil prices as a result of decreased global demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the future of the West White Rose Project and changes to their respective capital, operating and production plans.

Funds from operations were $1.054 billion in 2020, compared to $2.143 billion in 2019. The decrease was largely due to the same factors that impacted operating earnings described above.

Production Volumes⁽¹⁾

(1)

Beginning in 2020, the company revised the presentation of its production volumes to aggregate production from each asset into the categories of "E&P Canada" and "E&P International" to simplify the presentation. Comparative periods have been updated to reflect this change.

E&P Canada production volumes in 2020 were comparable to the prior year as increased production at Hebron and Hibernia was offset by a decrease in production at Terra Nova as it continues to remain offline.

The company continues to exercise capital discipline, carefully evaluating future projects and being disciplined in the deployment of capital. At Terra Nova, the ALE project was deferred in 2020 and the company safely preserved the floating production storage and offloading unit quayside until an economically viable path forward with a safe and reliable return to operations can be determined. Subsequent to the end of the year, Suncor and the Terra Nova joint venture partners, together with the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, agreed to a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding, which provides for a financial commitment by the government, including a modified royalty regime, in support of continued operations. The ALE project is currently being evaluated with owners

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  39

and all stakeholders to determine the best option to integrate and optimize potential funding to recover the remaining resources from the Terra Nova project.

E&P International production volumes averaged 42,000 boe/d in 2020, compared to 46,900 boe/d in 2019, with the decrease primarily related to natural declines in the U.K., partially offset by an increase in production from Oda, which began production in 2019.

Price Realizations

Price realizations at E&P Canada and E&P International were impacted by a significant decline in demand due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and OPEC+ supply issues at the beginning of 2020. Price realizations stabilized through the year as benchmarks improved following increased demand, optimism relating to vaccine rollouts and OPEC+ supply management.

Royalties

E&P royalties were lower in 2020 primarily due to the decrease in price realizations.

Expenses and Other Factors

Operating expenses were lower in 2020, compared to 2019, primarily due to reduced operating activity in E&P Canada.

DD&A and exploration expenses in 2020 decreased from the prior year due to lower DD&A expense on lower sales volumes.

Non-Cash Asset Impairment

White Rose assets:

During the first quarter of 2020, the company recorded an impairment of $137 million (net of taxes of $45 million) on its share of the White Rose assets due to changes to its capital, operating and production plans. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the company reassessed the likelihood of completing the West White Rose Project. As a result of this reassessment, the company performed an impairment test of the White Rose CGU. While the base White Rose asset is expected to continue to produce into the future, the company has removed the reserves and forecasted revenues for the West White Rose Project. The impact of this change has reduced planned production from the CGU and increased the expected closure costs, no longer supporting a positive recoverable amount for the CGU. An after-tax impairment charge of $423 million (net of taxes of $136 million) was recognized and the White Rose CGU was fully impaired as at December 31, 2020 to reflect significant uncertainty around the future of the asset.

Terra Nova assets:

During the first quarter of 2020, the company recorded an impairment of $285 million (net of taxes of $93 million) on its share of the Terra Nova assets using the following asset-specific assumptions:

•

Brent price forecast of US$30.00/bbl for the remainder of 2020, US$35.00/bbl in 2021, US$50.00/bbl in 2022 and US$69.00/bbl in 2023, escalating at 2% per year thereafter over the life of the project to 2031 and adjusted for asset- specific location and quality differentials;

•

the company's share of production of approximately 6,200 bbls/d over the life of the project, including the benefit of the asset life extension project; and

•

risk-adjusted discount rate of 9.0% (after-tax).

The recoverable amount of the Terra Nova CGU was $24 million as at March 31, 2020.

No indicators of impairment or reversals of impairment were identified as at December 31, 2020.

Planned Maintenance of Operated Assets

There are no planned maintenance activities planned for Suncor's operated assets.

40  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

Refining and Marketing

2020 Highlights

•

R&M delivered refinery crude throughput of 407,000 bbls/d in 2020, compared to 438,900 bbls/d in 2019, reflecting reduced demand as a result of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Average refinery utilization was 88% in 2020, compared with 95% in 2019. Suncor leveraged its strong domestic sales network and export channels, including integration with its retail network, to achieve higher utilization rates which outperformed the Canadian refining industry average throughout 2020.

•

On a FIFO basis, Suncor's refining and marketing margin⁽¹⁾ declined to $25.30/bbl in 2020, from $40.45/bbl in the prior year due to lower demand and benchmarks as a result of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in addition to the impact of FIFO inventory valuation. Suncor's refining and marketing margin decreased approximately 38% compared to the prior year, compared to a decrease of approximately 45% in crack spreads for the same period. This relative outperformance reflected Suncor's feedstock advantage, enabling the company to process discounted heavier crude oil, its marketing and logistics expertise, and strong sales channels within its integrated retail and wholesale network.

•

In support of the company's operating and capital cost reduction targets, operating costs were reduced by $280 million or 13% compared to 2019 while capital costs were reduced by approximately $300 million or approximately 40%.

•

Suncor continues to invest in midstream opportunities which expand the company's market reach and strengthen the company's sales channels, including the expansion of its Burrard product terminal, increased marine vessel activity and additional pipeline arrangements which provide feedstock optionality to our refineries.

•

The company increased the nameplate capacity of the Edmonton refinery, from 142,000 bbls/d to 146,000 bbls/d, subsequent to the end of the year, as a result of debottlenecking activities.

Strategy and Investment Update

The R&M business serves to maximize Suncor's integrated returns by extending the value chain from oil sands production to the end customer and is a key component of Suncor's integrated business model. The company aims to operate its refineries at optimal levels of utilization to provide reliable offtake for a portion of the production from the Oil Sands segment. The R&M business is strengthened by the company's marketing and trading expertise, by optimizing the supply of crude and natural gas liquids (NGLs) feedstock to the company's four refineries, managing crude inventory levels during refinery turnarounds and periods of unplanned maintenance, as well as managing external impacts from pipeline disruptions. The marketing and logistics organization also moves Suncor's refinery production to market and ensures supply to Suncor's branded retail and wholesale marketing channels. The business provides reliable natural gas supply to Suncor's upstream and downstream operations and generates incremental revenue through trading and asset optimization.

Through the acceleration of Suncor's transformation, the company continues to work to reduce the cost structure of the business, including the decision to relocate the downstream organization to the company's head office in Calgary.

Suncor continues to invest in midstream opportunities which expand the company's market reach and strengthen the company's sales channels, including the expansion of its Burrard product terminal, increased marine vessel activity and additional pipeline arrangements which provide feedstock optionality to our refineries. Through Suncor's midstream and logistics network, the company secures market access, optimizes price realizations associated with refined products and crude oil supply, manages inventory levels and limits the impacts of external market factors.

Suncor remains committed to supporting the transition to a low-carbon future through sustainability and technology initiatives. Canada's Electric Highway™, the coast-to-coast network of fast-charging electric vehicle stations across Canada, is one way that we are supporting consumers' transition to a low-carbon future.

Suncor continues to leverage its strong consumer position through the Petro-Canada™ brand, demonstrating our commitment to Canadians through our Live by the Leaf™ platform, introducing purposeful innovation with Canada's Electric Highway™ and through the Petro-Canada CareMakers Foundation™.

(1)

Non-GAAP financial measure. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  41

Financial Highlights

(1)

In 2019, the company recorded an $88 million deferred income tax recovery in the R&M segment associated with the Government of Alberta's substantive enactment of legislation for the staged reduction of the corporate income tax rate from 12% to 8%.

(2)

Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

Bridge Analysis of Operating Earnings ($ millions)⁽¹⁾

(1)

For an explanation of the construction of this bridge analysis, see the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

R&M contributed annual operating earnings of $866 million in 2020, compared with $2.912 billion in 2019. The decrease was primarily due to lower refining and marketing margins and a FIFO inventory loss as a result of significantly lower crude benchmarks as well as lower crude throughput and refined product sales due to lower demand for transportation fuels due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, partially offset by lower operating expenses.

Net earnings in 2020 were $866 million, compared to net earnings of $3.000 billion in 2019, and were impacted by the same factors as operating earnings described above.

R&M achieved an annual funds from operations of $1.708 billion in 2020, compared to $3.863 billion in 2019, due primarily to the same factors that impacted operating earnings described above.

42  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

Volumes

(1)

Refinery utilization is the amount of crude oil and natural gas plant liquids run through crude distillation units, expressed as a percentage of the capacity of these units.

(2)

Beginning in 2020, to better reflect the increasing integration of the company's assets, the company revised the presentation of its refined product sales volumes to include Oil Sands diesel that is purchased and marketed by the Refining and Marketing segment.

(3)

Beginning in 2020, refining and marketing margins have been revised to better reflect the refining, product supply and rack forward businesses. Prior periods have been restated to reflect this change.

(4)

Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

Refinery utilization averaged 88% in 2020, compared with 95% in 2019, as the company reduced refinery throughput as a result of a decrease in consumer demand for transportation fuels due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. As market conditions evolved and the demand profile shifted, the company was able to leverage its midstream storage capacity and diversified sales channels to respond quickly to changing consumer demand and optimize its product mix. The company also leveraged its strong domestic sales network and export channels, including integration with the retail network, within its downstream business to achieve higher utilization rates which continued to outperform the Canadian refining average through 2020. Subsequent to 2020, the nameplate capacity of the Edmonton refinery increased from 142,000 bbls/d to 146,000 bbls/d as a result of debottlenecking activities.

Total refined product sales decreased to 503,400 bbls/d in 2020, compared to 539,400 bbls/d in 2019, as a result of reduced average consumer demand due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Refining and Marketing Margins

Refining and marketing margins were influenced by the following:

•

On a LIFO⁽¹⁾ basis, Suncor's refining and marketing margin declined to $28.65/bbl in 2020, from $36.80/bbl in the prior year due to lower demand and benchmarks as a result of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Suncor's refining and marketing margin decreased approximately 20% compared to the prior year, compared to a decrease of approximately 45% in benchmark crack spreads for the same period. This relative outperformance reflects Suncor's feedstock advantage, enabling the company to process discounted heavier crude oil, its marketing and logistics capabilities, and strong sales channels within its integrated retail and wholesale network.

•

On a FIFO basis, Suncor's refining and marketing margin declined to $25.30/bbl in 2020, from $40.45/bbl in the prior year due to the same factors noted above, in addition to the impact of FIFO inventory valuation. In 2020, the impact of the FIFO method of inventory valuation, relative to an estimated LIFO accounting method, resulted in a negative impact on the company's results of $384 million, after-tax. FIFO had a positive impact on operating earnings of $461 million, after-tax, in the prior year, for an overall unfavourable year-over-year impact of $838 million, after-tax, including the impact of short-term commodity risk management activities.

Expenses and Other Factors

Operating and transportation expenses decreased compared to the prior year, primarily due to the impact of the company's cost reduction initiatives, relief provided under the CEWS program, a decrease in variable costs associated with the decrease in crude throughput and sales volumes and lower share-based compensation expense. Refining operating expense⁽¹⁾ per barrel was $5.50 in 2020, compared to $5.35 in the prior year, with the increase primarily due to lower crude throughput.

DD&A expense in 2020 was comparable to the prior year.

Planned Maintenance

Planned maintenance is scheduled for the Edmonton, Montreal and Commerce City refineries in the second quarter of 2021. The anticipated impact of these maintenance events has been reflected in the company's 2021 guidance.

(1)

Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  43

Corporate and Eliminations

2020 Highlights

•

In 2020, the company secured $2.8 billion in additional credit facilities and issued $1.25 billion of 5.00% senior unsecured medium term notes due 2030, US$450 million of 2.80% senior unsecured notes due 2023 and US$550 million of 3.10% senior unsecured notes due 2025. As of December 31, 2020, Suncor had $7.9 billion of liquidity.

•

In 2020, the company paid $1.670 billion in dividends to shareholders and, prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, repurchased $307 million of its own common shares for cancellation.

•

In 2020, the company increased its investments in clean technology, including LanzaJet, Inc., a company working to bring sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel to the commercial market and the Varennes Carbon Recycling facility, a biofuel plant in Varennes, Quebec, that is designed to convert commercial and industrial non-recyclable waste into biofuels and renewable chemicals.

•

The company continues to progress on Suncor 4.0 through investments to improve the productivity, reliability, safety and environmental performance of our operations and contribute to the company's incremental free funds flow target.

•

Suncor will remain disciplined in its capital allocation and, at current commodity prices, plans to pay down between $1.0 billion and $1.5 billion of debt and repurchase between $500 million and $1.0 billion of the company's shares in 2021, signifying the company's ability to generate cash flow and confidence in the underlying value of the company. Subsequent to the end of the year, the TSX accepted Suncor's notice to commence a new NCIB for up to 44,000,000 common shares.

Strategy and Investment Update

Returning value to shareholders continues to be a top priority for Suncor. Suncor entered the year with a strong investment grade balance sheet and a proven track record of shareholder returns and, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, responded decisively to maintain its financial strength and liquidity. Suncor will remain disciplined in its capital allocation and, at current commodity prices, plans to pay down between $1.0 billion and $1.5 billion of debt and repurchase between $500 million and $1.0 billion of the company's shares in 2021, signifying the company's ability to generate cash flow and confidence in the underlying value of the company. Subsequent to the end of the year, the TSX accepted Suncor's notice to commence a new NCIB for up to 44,000,000 common shares.

Investment in low carbon power and being a part of the emerging biofuel industry is a key component of Suncor's climate change action plan. In 2019, Suncor sanctioned the Forty Mile Wind Power Project, a 200 MW renewable energy power project in southern Alberta that is expected to generate significant value through sustainable power generation and retention of the generated carbon credits for utilization in Suncor's upstream business. The project was deferred in 2020 due to capital reductions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and is currently under construction. This project enables Suncor to make meaningful progress towards its sustainability goal of a 30% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity reduction by 2030.

In addition, the company continues to make investments in new technologies and renewable energy that lower its emissions and provide new sustainable energy sources. This includes equity investments in Enerkem., a waste-to-biofuels and chemicals producer, and LanzaJet, Inc., a company working to bring sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel to the commercial market. In 2020, Enerkem, Suncor and other partners announced construction plans for the Varennes Carbon Recycling facility, a biofuel plant in Varennes, Quebec, that is designed to convert commercial and industrial non-recyclable waste into biofuels and renewable chemicals. Suncor believes this investment complements Suncor's existing renewable fuels and power portfolio and further demonstrates Suncor's involvement in the global energy transition with low-carbon investments that are aligned with our current business.

Suncor continues to progress its digital transformation and implement new digital technologies across the enterprise to help improve the safety, productivity, reliability and environmental performance of our operations which the company anticipates will enable operational efficiencies that will provide further structural cost savings. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the business environment, the company accelerated certain aspects of the digital transformation, primarily associated with process and technology improvements and workforce reductions, to reduce the cost structure of running the business while increasing productivity. The company anticipates that the implementation of digital technologies will facilitate the transition to the workplace of the future, bolster operational excellence and drive additional value.

44  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

Financial Highlights

(1)

In 2019, the company recorded a $48 million deferred income tax recovery associated with the Government of Alberta's substantive enactment of legislation for the staged reduction of the corporate income tax rate from 12% to 8%.

(2)

Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

Corporate and Renewables

Corporate incurred an operating loss of $936 million in 2020, compared with an operating loss of $1.113 billion in 2019, with the decreased operating loss primarily due to lower share-based compensation expense, favourable income tax settlements and relief provided under the CEWS program partially offset by an increase in interest expense associated with increased debt in 2020. Suncor capitalized $120 million of its borrowing costs in 2020, compared to $122 million in 2019, as part of the cost of major development assets and construction projects in progress.

(1)

Power generated includes curtailed production for which the company was compensated.

Eliminations – Intersegment profit realized (eliminated)

Eliminations reflect the deferral or realization of profit on crude oil sales from Oil Sands to R&M. Consolidated profits are only realized when the refined products produced from internal purchases of crude feedstock have been sold to third parties. In 2020, the company realized $93 million of after-tax intersegment profit, compared to an elimination of profit of $204 million in the prior year. The change year-over-year was primarily due to the decrease in Oil Sands crude margins in 2020, as higher margin crude feedstock inventory sourced internally from Oil Sands was sold and replaced by lower margin crude feedstock inventory, resulting in a realization of profit at the enterprise level.

Funds used in operations for the Corporate and Eliminations segment were $872 million in 2020, compared to $1.249 billion in 2019, and were influenced by the same factors that impacted operating earnings, adjusted for the non-cash component of share-based compensation expense.

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  45

5. Fourth Quarter 2020 Analysis

Financial and Operational Highlights

(1)

Non-GAAP financial measures. See the Advisories – Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of this MD&A.

Net Loss

Suncor had a consolidated net loss for the fourth quarter of 2020 of $168 million, compared to a net loss of $2.335 billion for the prior year quarter. The net loss was affected by the same factors that influenced operating earnings described subsequently in this section of this MD&A. Other items affecting the net losses over these periods included:

•

The after-tax unrealized foreign exchange gain on the revaluation of U.S. dollar denominated debt was $539 million for the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to a gain of $235 million for the fourth quarter of 2019.

•

During the fourth quarter of 2020, the company recorded non-cash after-tax impairment charges of $423 million against its share of the White Rose assets, in the E&P segment, as a result of the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the future of the West White Rose Project.

•

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the company recorded a provision to transportation expense for $186 million ($142 million after-tax) related to the Keystone XL pipeline project, in the Oil Sands segment.

•

During the fourth quarter of 2019, the company recorded after-tax impairment charges of $2.803 billion on its share of the Fort Hills assets, in the Oil Sands segment, due to a decline in forecasted long-term heavy crude oil prices, and $393 million against White Rose, in the E&P segment, due to increased capital cost estimates at the West White Rose Project.

Cash Flow provided by Operating Activities and Funds from Operations

Funds from operations were $1.221 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to $2.553 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019, and included a $186 million transportation provision related to the Keystone XL pipeline project. Funds from operations were influenced by the same factors impacting operating (loss) earnings described in the Segmented Analysis below.

Cash flow provided by operating activities, which includes changes in non-cash working capital, was $814 million for the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to $2.304 billion in the prior year quarter, and was influenced by the same factors impacting operating (loss) earnings noted below. In addition, cash flow provided by operating activities was further impacted by a higher use of cash associated with the company's working capital balances, as compared to the prior year quarter. The use of cash in the company's non-cash working capital balances was primarily due to an increase in production and commodity prices at the end of the quarter, resulting in an increase in accounts receivable and inventory balances.

Segmented Analysis

Oil Sands

The Oil Sands segment had an operating loss of $151 million in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to operating earnings of $277 million in the prior year quarter. The decrease was primarily due to lower realized crude prices, as crude benchmarks decreased by approximately 25% compared to the prior year quarter as a result of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, partially offset by lower operating expenses, a higher proportion of higher value SCO

46  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

barrels in the product mix, enabled by strong reliability, and lower royalties, DD&A and exploration expenses.

SCO production increased to 514,300 bbls/d in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 456,300 bbls/d in the fourth quarter of 2019, marking the second best quarter of SCO production in the company's history and resulted in a combined upgrader utilization rate of 95% in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to 83% in the prior year quarter. Increased production in the fourth quarter of 2020 was primarily due to strong reliability at Syncrude and Oil Sands Base ramping up to full operating rates. Following the completion of maintenance activities early in the quarter, the company achieved combined upgrader utilization of 102% in November and December of 2020. Both quarters were impacted by planned maintenance at Oil Sands operations while the prior year quarter was impacted by planned maintenance at Syncrude. SCO production was further supported by increased In Situ bitumen production diverted to the upgrader to maximize the production of higher value SCO barrels. Increased upgrader utilization impacted total Oil Sands production due to the yield loss associated with the bitumen upgrading process. Despite the impact on our production volumes and cost per barrel metrics, the result of this strategy had a positive impact on overall funds flow and reflects our value over volume approach.

Non-upgraded bitumen production decreased to 157,200 bbls/d in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 206,000 bbls/d in the fourth quarter of 2019, as bitumen production from Firebag was diverted to the upgrader to maximize value over volume and maintenance activities were completed at Firebag early in the quarter. Production in the fourth quarter of 2020 was also impacted by lower production at Fort Hills as the asset commenced the phased ramp up to two primary extraction trains providing additional volumes at low incremental operating costs. The maintenance activities at Firebag have expanded the nameplate capacity of the facility through the installation of new incremental emulsion handling and steam infrastructure and also addressed plant restrictions that developed during the third quarter of 2020. Building on Suncor's commitment to operational excellence, the company exited the fourth quarter of 2020 with strong In Situ bitumen production, with both Firebag and MacKay River operating at near nameplate capacity.

SCO and diesel sales volumes increased to 495,600 bbls/d in the fourth quarter of 2020, from 447,600 bbls/d in the prior year quarter, consistent with the increase in production, partially offset by a build of inventory as a result of strong production and timing of sales.

Non-upgraded bitumen sales volumes were 139,600 bbls/d in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to 218,100 bbls/d in the prior year quarter, and were influenced by the same factors that impacted production volumes, discussed above, in addition to a build of inventory as increased sales were transported to customers extending down to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Exploration and Production

Operating earnings for the E&P segment in the fourth quarter of 2020 decreased to $44 million, from $231 million in the prior year quarter, with the decline primarily due to significantly lower realized crude prices due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in crude oil benchmarks decreasing by more than 25%, and lower production volumes, partially offset by lower royalties, DD&A expense, exploration expenses and operating expenses.

Production volumes for E&P Canada were 56,800 bbls/d in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to 69,600 bbls/d in the prior year quarter. Production volumes decreased in the fourth quarter of 2020, primarily due to the Terra Nova quayside preservation.

At Terra Nova, the company continued to exercise capital discipline by safely preserving the floating production storage and offloading unit quayside and deferring the ALE project until an economically viable path forward with a safe and reliable return to operations can be determined. Subsequent to 2020, Suncor and the Terra Nova joint venture partners, together with the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, agreed to a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding, which provides for a financial commitment by the government, including a modified royalty regime, in support of continued operations. The ALE project is currently being evaluated with owners and all stakeholders to determine the best option to integrate and optimize potential funding to recover the remaining resources from the Terra Nova project.

E&P International production was 40,900 boe/d in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to 46,300 boe/d in the prior year quarter. The decrease in the fourth quarter of 2020 reflected lower asset performance and natural production declines in the U.K.

Refining and Marketing

R&M operating earnings in the fourth quarter of 2020 were $268 million, compared to $558 million in the prior year quarter. The decrease was primarily due to lower refining and marketing margins as a result of significantly lower crack spread benchmarks and lower crude throughput and refined product sales due to lower demand for transportation fuels due to the COVID-19 pandemic, partially offset by lower operating expenses. Operating earnings were favourably impacted by a FIFO inventory valuation gain of $44 million after-tax on the increase in crude and refined product benchmarks in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to a FIFO inventory valuation loss of $16 million after-tax in the prior year quarter.

Annual Report 2020   Suncor Energy Inc.  47

Refinery crude throughput was 438,000 bbls/d and refinery utilization was 95% in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to refinery crude throughput of 447,500 bbls/d and refinery utilization of 97% in the prior year quarter, with the decline due to lower demand for refined products during the fourth quarter of 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Suncor leveraged its strong domestic sales network and export channels, including integration with the retail network, within its downstream business to achieve higher utilization rates which continued to outperform the Canadian refining industry average in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Refined product sales decreased in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 508,800 bbls/d, compared to 534,600 bbls/d in the prior year quarter, as a result of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Corporate and Eliminations

Corporate and Eliminations had an operating loss of $303 million in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to an operating loss of $284 million in the fourth quarter of 2019, with the increased operating loss primarily due to an increase in interest expense associated with increased debt in 2020 and higher share-based compensation expense, partially offset by favourable tax settlements. During the fourth quarter of 2020, the company's elimination of profit amounted to $21 million after-tax, compared to a realization of $11 million of after-tax intersegment profit in the prior year quarter.

Suncor capitalized $26 million of its borrowing costs in the fourth quarter of 2020 as part of the cost of major development assets and construction projects in progress, compared to $37 million in the prior year quarter.

48  Annual Report 2020  Suncor Energy Inc.

6. Quarterly Financial Data

Financial Summary