APPENDIX II — APPRAISAL LETTERS
Adjusted Desktop Valuation Report
Aviation Specialists Group, Inc. (“ASG”) has been engaged by United Airlines, Inc. (“Client”) to provide an adjusted desktop valuation setting forth ASG’s opinions as to halflife halftime and Adjusted Base and Current Market Values for those 48 Boeing jetliners described in the Aircraft Descriptions and Values table later in this report. In reaching its value opinions, ASG has relied upon data provided to it by Client.
This report contains the following sections:
| 4 | Adjusted Desktop Valuation Assumptions |
| 4 | Value Definitions and Explanations |
| 4 | Aircraft Values |
| 4 | Covenants |
Adjusted Desktop Valuation Assumptions | |
In an adjusted desktop valuation, the appraiser neither sees the subject aircraft nor reviews its specifications and technical documents. Instead, the appraiser is furnished with certain maintenance status information by the client or aircraft operator. In preparing its value opinions, ASG relies on that data and, unless specifically stated otherwise, makes the following assumptions about the aircraft itself:
| 4 | It is of average specification for its type and age and has no special equipment or characteristics which would materially affect its value. |
| 4 | Its utilization in terms of hours and cycles is average for its type and age. |
| 4 | It is in passenger or freighter configuration as appropriate. |
| 4 | It is certificated and operated under the aegis of a major airworthiness authority such as the FAA or EASA. |
| 4 | It is in average physical condition and its maintenance records and documents comply with all applicable regulations and good industry practices. Required back to birth records are on hand and in good order and only original equipment manufacturer parts are in use in the aircraft and engines. |
| 4 | It has no history of major damage. |
| 4 | It complies with applicable Airworthiness Directives and mandatory Service Bulletins. |
ASG first develops the subject aircraft’s Base and/or Current Market Value assuming that the airframe, engines, engine life limited parts, landing gears and other major life- and time-limited components are in halflife, halftime condition. ASG then uses the maintenance data provided to it to adjust for the aircraft’s variance from that status. For example, if the aircraft has had a recent heavy check or engine shop visit, ASG will add to the halflife value.
Regarding Adjusted Base/Market Values, ASG uses the following value convention. A new aircraft is considered to be factory new with 100% life remaining on all components, that is, it is full life. The aircraft then ages based on typical utilization for its type until it becomes mature and reaches halflife condition. ASG’s unadjusted values for mature aircraft assume them to be in halflife condition. Time to reach mature halflife status depends on the aircraft and engine combination and typical utilization for that aircraft type. For many (but not all) jetliners, mature halflife status is reached when they are 4-5 years old. For aircraft between factory new and mature, ASG’s Current Market and Base Values already assume the aircraft to be in better than halflife condition and therefore no further adjustments are needed to their values. Adjustments are shown in the Aircraft Descriptions and Values table below.
In developing its values, ASG also makes two further assumptions:
United Airlines, Inc.
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| 4 | that the aircraft has been bought and will be sold as a single unit or as part of a small lot. It is not part of a launch purchase nor will it be the subject of a fleet sale which could result in a price discount. |
| 4 | that the aircraft is not subject to an existing lease. ASG’s opinion of values excludes the effects of attached lease rental streams and tax benefits, either of which can have a material effect on an aircraft’s actual purchase price. |
Value Definitions and Explanations | | |
ASG uses the following ISTAT definitions:
| 4 | Base Value is the Appraiser’s opinion of the value of an aircraft (or other aviation-related asset) in a stable market with a reasonable balance of supply and demand. The Base Value of a tangible asset typically assumes its physical condition is average for an asset of its type and age, and its maintenance status is as described. Base Value assumes that the value is for an unencumbered single-unit transaction valued for the asset’s highest and best use (as defined by the Appraiser), that the parties to the potential sale would be willing, able, prudent and knowledgeable, and under no unusual pressure for a prompt sale, and that the transaction would be negotiated in an open and unrestricted market on an arm’s-length basis, for cash or equivalent consideration, and given an adequate amount of time for effective exposure to prospective buyers. |
| 4 | Market Value or Fair Market Value (or Current Market Value or Current Fair Market Value, if the value pertains to the time of the analysis) is the Appraiser’s opinion of the most likely trading price that may be generated for an aircraft (or other aviation-related asset) under the market circumstances perceived to exist at the time in question. Market Value assumes that the value is for an unencumbered single-unit transaction valued for the asset’s highest and best use (as defined by the Appraiser), that the parties to the potential sale would be willing, able, prudent and knowledgeable, and under no unusual pressure for a prompt sale, and that the transaction would be negotiated in an open and unrestricted market on an arm’s-length basis, for cash or equivalent consideration, and given an adequate amount of time for effective exposure to prospective buyers. |
| 4 | Full-life/Full-time describes a maintenance status where all scheduled maintenance events are at zero-time (100% time remaining) and all life-limited components have their full lives remaining. |
| 4 | Halflife/Halftime (historically also known as Mid-life/Mid-time) describes a maintenance status where all scheduled maintenance events are at mid-point of their scheduled or estimated interval (50% time remaining) and all life-limited components are at the mid-point of their assigned lives. |
ASG also uses the term Adjusted Market/Base Value to indicate that it has adjusted Current Market/Base Value to reflect the data which it has regarding the aircraft’s maintenance status.
ASG’s value opinions for the subject aircraft are set forth in millions of U.S. dollars in the Aircraft Descriptions and Values table below. Maintenance adjustments to halflife halftime values are set forth in the MX Adjustments column of the table. Detailed adjustments to specific aircraft values are available on request.
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Aircraft Descriptions and Values (US$ millions), 01 June 2024
MSN | Type | DOM | Registration | Engine | ESN1 | ESN2 | OH Crew Rests | Unadj Current Mkt Value | Unadj Base Value | MX
Adjustmt | Adj Cur Mkt Val | Adj Base Val |
44309 | 737 MAX 8 | Jun-23 | N27290 | LEAP 1B-28 | 603741 | 603756 | n/a | $52.5 | $51.3 | $0.0 | $52.5 | $51.3 |
64609 | 737 MAX 8 | Jul-23 | N17312 | LEAP 1B-28 | 602765 | 602821 | n/a | $53.2 | $52.1 | $0.0 | $53.2 | $52.1 |
64608 | 737 MAX 8 | Aug-23 | N37307 | LEAP 1B-28 | 602846 | 602843 | n/a | $53.2 | $52.1 | $0.0 | $53.2 | $52.1 |
67604 | 737 MAX 8 | Dec-23 | N37324 | LEAP 1B-28 | 603967 | 60B013 | n/a | $54.0 | $52.9 | $0.0 | $54.0 | $52.9 |
67588 | 737 MAX 8 | Dec-23 | N47330 | LEAP 1B-28 | 60A132 | 60A488 | n/a | $54.0 | $52.9 | $0.0 | $54.0 | $52.9 |
67184 | 737 MAX 9 | May-23 | N37560 | LEAP 1B-28 | 603421 | 60A463 | n/a | $52.9 | $51.7 | $0.0 | $52.9 | $51.7 |
67590 | 737 MAX 9 | May-23 | N37561 | LEAP 1B-28 | 603202 | 603353 | n/a | $52.9 | $51.7 | $0.0 | $52.9 | $51.7 |
67591 | 737 MAX 9 | Jun-23 | N37562 | LEAP 1B-28 | 603227 | 603861 | n/a | $52.9 | $51.7 | $0.0 | $52.9 | $51.7 |
67187 | 737 MAX 9 | Jun-23 | N37563 | LEAP 1B-28 | 60B229 | 60B235 | n/a | $52.9 | $51.7 | $0.0 | $52.9 | $51.7 |
67186 | 737 MAX 9 | Jun-23 | N17565 | LEAP 1B-28 | 60B287 | 60B292 | n/a | $52.9 | $51.7 | $0.0 | $52.9 | $51.7 |
67188 | 737 MAX 9 | Jun-23 | N17564 | LEAP 1B-28 | 603288 | 603568 | n/a | $52.9 | $51.7 | $0.0 | $52.9 | $51.7 |
67603 | 737 MAX 9 | Aug-23 | N77573 | LEAP 1B-28 | 60A367 | 603602 | n/a | $54.0 | $52.8 | $0.0 | $54.0 | $52.8 |
67193 | 737 MAX 9 | Aug-23 | N77571 | LEAP 1B-28 | 60B352 | 60B375 | n/a | $54.0 | $52.8 | $0.0 | $54.0 | $52.8 |
67609 | 737 MAX 9 | Aug-23 | N77575 | LEAP 1B-28 | 603120 | 60A674 | n/a | $54.0 | $52.8 | $0.0 | $54.0 | $52.8 |
67610 | 737 MAX 9 | Sep-23 | N77576 | LEAP 1B-28 | 60B443 | 60B473 | n/a | $54.0 | $52.8 | $0.0 | $54.0 | $52.8 |
67615 | 737 MAX 9 | Sep-23 | N37577 | LEAP 1B-28 | 60B472 | 60B475 | n/a | $54.0 | $52.8 | $0.0 | $54.0 | $52.8 |
31663 | B737-800 | Oct-10 | N76528 | CFM56-7B26 | 805240 | 804292 | n/a | $20.8 | $20.2 | ($4.6) | $16.2 | $15.7 |
31652 | B737-800 | Dec-10 | N76529 | CFM56-7B26 | 804586 | 805596 | n/a | $20.8 | $20.2 | ($5.1) | $15.6 | $15.1 |
39998 | B737-800 | Mar-11 | N77530 | CFM56-7B26 | 804678 | 804677 | n/a | $21.1 | $20.6 | $6.6 | $27.7 | $27.2 |
39999 | B737-800 | Mar-11 | N87531 | CFM56-7B26 | 804509 | 804545 | n/a | $21.1 | $20.6 | ($1.6) | $19.5 | $19.0 |
31655 | B737-900ER | Dec-10 | N38443 | CFM56-7B26 | 804398 | 804401 | n/a | $17.9 | $18.7 | ($4.8) | $13.1 | $13.9 |
31643 | B737-900ER | Dec-10 | N36444 | CFM56-7B26 | 804446 | 804447 | n/a | $17.9 | $18.7 | ($5.1) | $12.8 | $13.6 |
40000 | B737-900ER | Apr-11 | N73445 | CFM56-7B26 | 804866 | 804869 | n/a | $18.6 | $19.5 | ($4.9) | $13.7 | $14.6 |
31661 | B737-900ER | Jan-12 | N38446 | CFM56-7B26 | 960530 | 960540 | n/a | $19.7 | $20.8 | ($4.2) | $15.5 | $16.5 |
31650 | B737-900ER | Feb-12 | N36447 | CFM56-7B26 | 960603 | 960604 | n/a | $19.7 | $20.8 | ($3.9) | $15.8 | $16.9 |
40003 | B737-900ER | Mar-12 | N78448 | CFM56-7B26 | 960637 | 960645 | n/a | $19.7 | $20.8 | ($4.6) | $15.1 | $16.2 |
United Airlines, Inc.
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MSN | Type | DOM | Registration | Engine | ESN1 | ESN2 | OH Crew Rests | Unadj Current Mkt Value | Unadj Base Value | MX
Adjustmt | Adj Cur Mkt Val | Adj Base Val |
31651 | B737-900ER | Mar-12 | N81449 | CFM56-7B26 | 960715 | 960716 | n/a | $19.7 | $20.8 | ($2.5) | $17.2 | $18.2 |
40004 | B737-900ER | Apr-12 | N39450 | CFM56-7B26 | 960735 | 961746 | n/a | $20.1 | $21.2 | $1.9 | $22.0 | $23.1 |
31646 | B737-900ER | Apr-12 | N38451 | CFM56-7B26 | 960742 | 961747 | n/a | $20.1 | $21.2 | ($4.2) | $15.9 | $17.0 |
40005 | B737-900ER | May-12 | N68452 | CFM56-7B26 | 960831 | 960839 | n/a | $20.1 | $21.2 | ($3.5) | $16.6 | $17.7 |
41742 | B737-900ER | May-12 | N68453 | CFM56-7B26 | 960869 | 960871 | n/a | $20.1 | $21.2 | ($3.6) | $16.5 | $17.6 |
31640 | B737-900ER | Jun-12 | N38454 | CFM56-7B26 | 960904 | 961908 | n/a | $20.1 | $21.2 | ($3.5) | $16.5 | $17.7 |
41743 | B737-900ER | Jun-12 | N34455 | CFM56-7B26 | 960936 | 960943 | n/a | $20.1 | $21.2 | ($4.1) | $16.0 | $17.1 |
37205 | B737-900ER | Sep-12 | N37456 | CFM56-7B26 | 962201 | 963202 | n/a | $20.5 | $21.6 | ($5.8) | $14.6 | $15.8 |
41744 | B737-900ER | Sep-12 | N28457 | CFM56-7B26 | 962231 | 962234 | n/a | $20.5 | $21.6 | ($5.9) | $14.5 | $15.7 |
37199 | B737-900ER | Sep-12 | N38458 | CFM56-7B26 | 962248 | 962252 | n/a | $20.5 | $21.6 | ($5.8) | $14.7 | $15.8 |
37206 | B737-900ER | Oct-12 | N38459 | CFM56-7B26 | 962312 | 962318 | n/a | $20.9 | $22.0 | ($5.7) | $15.2 | $16.4 |
37200 | B737-900ER | Nov-12 | N34460 | CFM56-7B26 | 962316 | 962330 | n/a | $20.9 | $22.0 | ($5.4) | $15.5 | $16.7 |
42175 | B737-900ER | Jan-14 | N68811 | CFM56-7B26 | 658490 | 658505 | n/a | $22.9 | $24.3 | ($3.9) | $18.9 | $20.4 |
42201 | B737-900ER | May-15 | N61882 | CFM56-7B26 | 862112 | 862113 | n/a | $25.0 | $26.8 | ($3.1) | $22.0 | $23.8 |
42202 | B737-900ER | Jun-15 | N62883 | CFM56-7B26 | 862193 | 862210 | n/a | $25.0 | $26.8 | ($3.6) | $21.4 | $23.2 |
66591 | 777-300ER | Jan-20 | N2251U | GE90-115B | 901497 | 901498 | Pilot / FA | $84.1 | $107.4 | $0.0 | $84.1 | $107.4 |
66592 | 777-300ER | Mar-20 | N2352U | GE90-115B | 901507 | 901508 | Pilot / FA | $84.1 | $107.4 | $0.0 | $84.1 | $107.4 |
66988 | 787-10 | Nov-22 | N14019 | GEnx-1B70 | 958735 | 958792 | Pilot / FA | $144.1 | $144.2 | $0.0 | $144.1 | $144.2 |
66987 | 787-10 | Nov-22 | N13018 | GEnx-1B70 | 958798 | 958799 | Pilot / FA | $144.1 | $144.2 | $0.0 | $144.1 | $144.2 |
66989 | 787-10 | Dec-22 | N12020 | GEnx-1B70 | 958806 | 958807 | Pilot / FA | $144.1 | $144.2 | $0.0 | $144.1 | $144.2 |
66990 | 787-10 | Dec-22 | N12021 | GEnx-1B70 | 958809 | 958810 | Pilot / FA | $144.1 | $144.2 | $0.0 | $144.1 | $144.2 |
66985 | 787-10 | Dec-22 | N14016 | GEnx-1B70 | 958780 | 958782 | Pilot / FA | $144.1 | $144.2 | $0.0 | $144.1 | $144.2 |
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In accordance with ISTAT’s Principles of Appraisal Practice and Code of Ethics, this report has been prepared for the exclusive use of Client; ASG will not provide it to any other party without the express consent of Client. ASG has no present or contemplated interest in the subject equipment or any similar equipment, it has no current, past or contemplated interest in Client or any companies related to Client nor does it have any other interest which might tend to prevent it making a fair and unbiased appraisal.
This report fairly represents ASG’s opinion of the subject equipment’s value. In reaching its value opinions, ASG has relied upon information provided by Client. ASG does not assume responsibility or legal liability for any actions taken, or not taken, by Client or other parties with regard to the equipment. By accepting this report, all parties agree that ASG shall bear no such responsibility or legal liability including liability for special or consequential damages.
For Aviation Specialists Group, Inc.
Fred J. Klein
ISTAT-certified Senior Appraiser Fellow
International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading
United Airlines, Inc.
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VALUATION OF A 48 AIRCRAFT PORTFOLIO
As of June 1, 2024 Client: United Airlines, Inc.
Report Date: July 2, 2024
7315 Wisconsin Ave, Ste 800W Bethesda, MD 20814
Table of Contents
VALUATION SUMMARY | | 2 |
DEFINITIONS | | 3 |
ASSUMPTIONS | | 4 |
MARKET OUTLOOK | | 5 |
AIRCRAFT MARKET ANALYTICS | | 9 |
VALUATION METHODOLOGY | | 12 |
DISCLAIMER | | 14 |
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I. VALUATION SUMMARY
BK Associates, Inc. (“BK”) has been engaged by United Airlines, Inc. (“Client”) to provide a desktop valuation, setting forth BK’s opinions of current half-life base values (BV) for 23 aircraft and maintenance-adjusted BVs for 25 aircraft, as of June 1, 2024.
AIRCRAFT DESCRIPTION
The Portfolio aircraft are identified by type, serial number, date of manufacture and engine model/variant in the attached Figure 1. Figure 1 reflects the current half-life and maintenance-adjusted BVs in millions.
PURPOSE OF THE VALUATION ENGAGEMENT
It is understood by BK that the Conclusion of Value will be used by Client for potential financing. This report was prepared solely for the purposes described herein and, accordingly, should not be used for any other purpose. In addition, this report should not be distributed to any party other than Client, without the express knowledge and written consent of the Client or BK.
RELEVANT DATES
BK was engaged to value the subject aircraft as of the Valuation Date, June 1, 2024. In this valuation, BK considered only circumstances that existed as of and events that occurred up to the Valuation Date.
PREMISE OF VALUE
The valuation premise may be either in-use (i.e., going concern) or liquidation. The determining factor being the highest and best use as considered from a market participant’s perspective. The values issued in this report are based on an in-use valuation premise, which assumes that the aircraft will continue to operate.
CONCLUSIONS
Based upon BK’s knowledge of these various aircraft types, BK’s knowledge of the capabilities and uses to which they have been put in various parts of the world, BK’s knowledge of the marketing of used aircraft, and BK’s knowledge of aircraft in general, it is BK’s opinion that the values are in 2024 U.S. dollars as found in the attached Figure 1.
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II. DEFINITIONS
According to the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading's (ISTAT) definition of Base Value to which BK Associates subscribes, the base value is the Appraiser's opinion of the underlying economic value of an aircraft in an open, unrestricted, stable market environment with a reasonable balance of supply and demand, and assumes full consideration of its "highest and best use". An aircraft's base value is founded in the historical trend of values and in the projection of future value trends and presumes an arm's length, cash transaction between willing, able and knowledgeable parties, acting prudently, with an absence of duress and with a reasonable period of time available for marketing. The base value normally refers to a transaction involving a single aircraft. When multiple aircraft are acquired in the same transaction, the trading price of each unit may be discounted.
BK’s stated values include assumed half-life and maintenance adjusted values. For comparison purposes, it is the convention to assign “half-time, half-life” values to aircraft or engines, which represent the value of an aircraft or engine that is halfway between the expense major maintenance events. As a starting point, the base value of a tangible asset typically assumes its maintenance status is at half-life/half-time, or benefiting from an above half-life/half-time maintenance status if the asset is new or young.
The maintenance adjusted values include appropriate financial adjustments applied to the half-time value, these adjustments are based on BK’s interpretation of the maintenance summary and fleet utilization data provided. The adjustments are approximate, based on industry average costs, and include an adjustment for the time remaining to a “C” check, time remaining to a “D” check, time remaining to landing gear overhaul, time since new or time since the most recent heavy shop visit on engines and life remaining on engine life-limited parts.
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III. ASSUMPTIONS
BK has made the following assumptions and determinations with respect to these aircraft in preparing this valuation:
| 1. | The aircraft are in good physical condition. |
| 2. | The historical maintenance documentation has been maintained to acceptable international standards. |
| 3. | The specifications of the aircraft are those most common for aircraft of their type and vintage. |
| 4. | The aircraft are in standard passenger configurations, unless specifically stated otherwise. |
| 5. | The aircraft are current as to all Airworthiness Directives and Service Bulletins. |
| 6. | Their modification statuses are comparable to those of aircraft of their type and vintage. |
| 7. | They are operated under an appropriate civil airworthiness authority. |
| 8. | Their utilization is comparable to industry averages. |
| 9. | There is no history of accident or incident damage that BK is aware of. |
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IV. MARKET OUTLOOK
The performance and value of any aircraft is affected to varying degrees by conditions in the global economy. Some of the key influences include gross domestic product, fuel price, and the lending environment. This section of the report will analyze what the current outlook is for each.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) 1
| | |
| Source: IATA.org | |
Aviation is a highly cyclical industry, marked with high highs and low lows. Historically, GDP and traffic have been good indicators of the health of the industry, as they are highly correlated. Economic prosperity leads to an increase in disposable income and subsequently an increase in demand for air travel. An increase in demand for air travel means an increase in demand for aircraft and related equipment.
The aviation industry, along with the global economy at large, were severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result of travel restrictions and broader economic downturns, both traffic and GDP sharply dropped. However, access to the COVID-19 vaccine brought down caseloads, easing travel restrictions and brightened economic prospects for advanced economies. While 2022 saw tremendous GDP growth compared to 2021, this is likely to slow down due to global inflation. According to the IMF, global growth was 3.2 percent in 2023 and projected to be the same in 2024 and 2025. Advanced economies grew by 1.6% in 2023, and increase to 1.7% and 1.8% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Developing economies had and are estimated to have stronger growth, relative to advanced economies, with 4.3% in 2023, and projected to grow 4.2% in both 2024 and 2025. In addition, there are more difficult near-term prospects due in part to tight
1 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024
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monetary policy tackling inflation, the impacts of the war in Ukraine, and the supply chain disruptions within manufacturing countries.
FUEL ENVIRONMENT 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
| | |
| Source: Indexmundi.com | |
The chart above shows the volatility in the fuel market over the last decade in U.S. Dollars. Brent crude has a strong correlation with Jet Fuel A prices. After a period of high prices, crude oil began to decline in the fall of 2014. Prices remained low through early 2016 and then steadily rose, reaching a four-year high in October 2018. Following a sharp price drop in November 2018, crude oil prices remained relatively stable through January 2020, averaging around $63 per barrel. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, both Brent Crude and Jet Fuel A saw severe drops in price in early 2020. Crude and Fuel hit the lowest points in April 2020, and both began recovery. During the first half of 2022, prices started to increase significantly, as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. From January 2022 to June 2022, Brent Crude and Jet Fuel A prices increased by 40% and 68%, respectively. After June 2022, prices started dropping in 2022 and were a bit more stable in 2023. According to Airlines for America’s U.S. Jet Fuel Index, fuel was trading at $2.39 per gallon as of May 13, 2024.
2 https://www.ft.com/content/bc938195-82d3-43eb-b031-740028451382
3 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/saudi-arabia-resists-trump-s-attempt-to-broker-an-oil-war-truce
4 https://www.airlines.org/argus-us-jet-fuel-index/
5 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/us-ban-russian-oil-imports-rcna19119
6 https://apnews.com/article/gas-prices-record-high-russia-ukraine-ac7fcc350ad1f1c71db4185b99fef112
7 https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/crude-oil-price-falls-for-fifth-straight-day-amid-rising-us-stockpile/articleshow/81561171.cms
8 https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
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Historically, jet fuel and airline profitability have had an inverse relationship. Higher fuel means higher fares, worse profitability and in turn, lower demand. According to the Department of Energy’s latest short-term outlook, crude oil prices in 2023 were $82 per barrel, an 18% decrease compared to 2022. As of May 2024, prices have increased to $88 per barrel. The U.S. Department of Energy expects oil prices to slightly fluctuate through 2024, then slightly drop to $85 per barrel in 2025.
LENDING LANDSCAPE 9 10 11 12 13 14
The lending environment is also a material consideration when evaluating the current market. The last 10 years have been marked with historically low interest rates. However, while indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen, inflation remains elevated. This reflects pandemic-related supply and demand imbalances, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.
In March of 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018. On June 1, 2022, the Fed began reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities. On May 1, 2024, the Committee announced its plan to continue to reduce its holding of Treasury securities, but slightly altered from their June 2023 plans. Beginning June 2024, for Treasury securities, the Committee will reduce the monthly redemption cap from $60 billion to $25 billion. For agency mortgage-back securities, the Committee will maintain a monthly cap of $35 billion and will reinvest any payments that exceed the cap into Treasury securities.
Over the past year, the Federal Reserve transitioned from a position of rate hikes to that of a holding pattern as it continues to seek to achieve maximum employment and inflation at a 2.0% target rate over the longer run. On May 1, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted economic activity has continued to expand, and job gains have been strong with unemployment rate remaining low. They also noted that though inflation has eased in the past year, inflation is still elevated and there has not been enough progress towards the Committee’s 2.0% inflation goal. The FOMC decided to hold the federal funds rate at its current position, between 5.25% and 5.50%. The Committee will continue to monitor economic data and will consider adjusting rates when applicable.
Goldman Sachs announced in November 2023 that they predict a U.S. recession in the next 12 months is less likely, at a 15% chance. Their prediction has remained the same from
9 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220321a.htm
10 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220504a.htm
11 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220504b.htm
12 https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-raises-interest-rates-for-first-time-since-2018-11647453603?mod=trending_now_news_5
13 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20230616_mprfullreport.pdf
14 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240501a.htm
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September and is lower compared to their 20%, 25% and 35% chance predictions from July, June and March, respectively. 15 16 17
COVID-19 RECOVERY 18 19 20 21
The global economic shock resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically impacted the aviation industry. Airlines around the world saw financial positions deteriorate as passenger revenues for the industry fell more than 68% during 2020, while net losses exceeded $137 billion.
In February 2021, pharmaceutical companies Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, Oxford-AstraZeneca began to rollout vaccines and as a result, travel recovery began. For the full year of 2021, RPKs grew 22% compared to 2020, while reaching 42% of 2019 levels. In 2022, as more and more countries started to lift travel restrictions, air travel increased. For 2022 year-end, RPKs increased by 64%. Further recovery from the pandemic was seen as 2022 RPKs reached 62% of 2019 levels.
As of December 2023, global RPKs for 2023 year-end increased by 26.9% compared to 2022, and was at 94.1% of 2019 levels. For global 2023 RPKs, compared to 2022, the Asia Pacific total market saw the largest increase in traffic, increasing by 96.3%. When comparing 2023 to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, only the North American and Latin American total markets saw an increase in RPKs, with 2.4% and 0.4%, respectively. Domestic traffic continues to be the leading driver for recovery, as domestic RPKs in 2023 were 3.9% above 2019 levels. International traffic in 2023 reached 88.6% of 2019 levels. International passenger load factor for 2023 reached 82.8%, a 4.2 percentage point increase compared to 2022, and a 0.8 percentage point increase compared to 2019.
In 2023, airlines are estimated to reach a global $23.3 billion net profit, and forecasted to reach $25.7 billion in 2024. A drastic improvement and stronger signs of recovery from the pandemic.
COVID-19 has proven to become less of a concern as domestic travel seems to have recovered and international travel is close to a full recovery.
15 https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-probability-of-us-recession-in-the-next-year-has-fallen-to-20-percent.html
16 https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/why-a-us-recession-has-become-less-likely.html
17 https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-us-economy-is-on-its-final-descent-to-a-soft-landing.html#:~:text=US%20GDP%20is%20projected%20to,over%20the%20next%2012%20months.
18 https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/industry-statistics-fact-sheet-december-2023/
19 https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-passenger-monthly-analysis---december-2021/
20 https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-passenger-market-analysis---december-2022/
21 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2024-releases/2024-01-31-02/
8
V. AIRCRAFT MARKET ANALYTICS
AIRCRAFT DEMAND 22
| | |
| Source: Boeing.com; Airbus.com | |
The number of orders placed in a given year is a good indicator of where the industry is in the cycle. An aircraft type launched in the right business cycle can lead to a large order stream and, ultimately, a strong residual value. The number of orders has increased every year since 2020. In 2023, Airbus delivered a total of 735 aircraft and received 2,094 new orders (net in year of cancelation). Most orders were for the A321Neo, followed by the A320Neo, combined had 1,688 orders, 81% of Airbus 2023 new orders. Indigo placed the most A321Neo orders with 375, while Air India placed the most A320Neo orders with 140. By comparison, in 2023, Boeing delivered 528 aircraft, while receiving 1,456 gross orders, but only 1,314 when accounting for cancelations. Though the 737 MAX family has ran into some issues in the past few years, the aircraft is still the most ordered aircraft across the board, with a total of 987 gross orders in 2023.
According to IATA, despite persistent supply chain issues, aircraft demand remained strong and deliveries increased in 2023, going from 1,238 to 1,372. Latin America was the only region where deliveries did not increase in 2023. North America had the most aircraft deliveries with 456, while the Middle East saw the largest year-over-year increase, with aircraft deliveries increasing by 71% in 2023. Though 2023 saw many issues, including labor shortages, deliveries were able to increase. Some of these problems are expected to continue in 2024, deliveries are still projected to increase. In 2024 and 2025, deliveries are projected to reach 1,777 and 2,075 aircraft, respectively.
22 https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/global-outlook-for-air-transport---december-2023---report/
9
GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSITY
| | |
| Source: JetInventory.com | |
The aircraft in this portfolio are popular all over the world with a dominance in Asia and North America, on a regional level. The B737-800 is in 84 countries, the B737-900ER is in 14 countries, the B737MAX8 is in 43 countries, the B737MAX9 is in 11 countries, the B777-300ER is in 33 countries and the B787-10 is in 9 countries. China has the most B737-800 aircraft with 1,166 of them. The United States has the most B737-900ER, B737MAX8 and B737MAX9 aircraft with 378, 377 and 145 of them, respectively. The United Arab Emirates has the most B777-300ER aircraft with 140 of them. Singapore has the most B787-10 aircraft with 22 of them. Regional diversification is also a major influence on value. The more diverse the operation of the aircraft, the easier it is to remarket it.
10
OPERATOR BASE
| | |
| Source: JetInventory.com | |
The graph above illustrates the operator base of each aircraft type compared with the age of the global fleet. A320s and 737-800s are typically viewed as the most liquid aircraft types, in terms of ability to convert to cash. The B737-800 has 231 operators, the B737-900ER has 20 operators, the B737MAX8 has 78 operators, the B737MAX9 has 12 operators, the B777-300ER has 52 operators and the B787-10 has 9 operators. The largest operator of B737-800 aircraft is American Airlines with 303 of them. The largest operator of B737-900ER aircraft is Delta Air Lines with 163 of them. The largest operator of B737MAX8 aircraft is Southwest Airlines with 230 of them. The largest operator of B737MAX9 aircraft is United Airlines with 80 of them. The largest operator of B777-300ER aircraft is Emirates with 127 of them. The largest operator of B787-10 aircraft is Singapore Airlines with 22 of them. Operator base, like region diversification is an important influence on value. The more operators there are, the easier it is to remarket the aircraft.
11
VI. VALUATION METHODOLOGY
Current values are normally based on comparison to recent sales of comparable aircraft. Unfortunately, aircraft transactions are not made public. Since the 1990s, the major airlines and other aviation industry entities in the United States have claimed, with support of the government and the courts that the realizations in their aircraft sales should be kept confidential. Prior to that, all transactions were reported to the government and the prices were available to the public. However, BK tracks transactions through various means such as discussions with clients, as well as relevant players involved in transactions, and releases in the press. Equipment manufacturers also share with BK confidential cost data related to their products.
BK Associates has accumulated a database of over 13,000 data points of aircraft sales that occurred since 1970. From analysis of this data, BK is aware, for example, what the average aircraft should sell for as a percentage of its new price, as well as the high and low values that have occurred in strong and weak markets.
Based on this data, BK has developed relationships between aircraft age and sale price. BK has developed refinements for such things as derivative aircraft, aircraft still in production versus no longer in production, and aircraft early in the production run versus later models. Within each group, variations are determined by the performance capabilities of each aircraft relative to the others. BK tracks hundreds of different aircraft types and models and determines current and forecast base values. These relationships are verified and changed or updated, if necessary, as sales data becomes available.
This relationship between sale price as a function of age and the new price is depicted in the following figure.
Regarding the current market values, based on BK’s analysis of numbers of aircraft available for sale, numbers in storage, fleet size, operator base, short-term projected
12
demand, and recent transactions and listings, BK has determined likely current market values.
One of the most important factors affecting the current market is supply and demand, as evidenced by the numbers of aircraft available for sale and in storage. The following, consolidated from online sources, lists similar aircraft, which are publicly advertised for sale or lease. Additionally, aircraft currently active, scrapped, and in storage are quantified. However, it should be understood that some operators and lessors do not publicize their aircraft availability and the list of stored aircraft does not directly compliment the availability listing.
As of April 2024 | | | | | | | | Available | | % of | |
| | Active | | Stored | | Scrapped | | For Sale | | Fleet | |
B737-800 | | 4,521 | | | 268 | | | 108 | | | 10 | | | 0.2 | % |
B737-900ER | | 480 | | | 24 | | | 1 | | | - | | | 0.0 | % |
B737MAX8 | | 1,244 | | | 17 | | | 2 | | | - | | | 0.0 | % |
B737MAX9 | | 214 | | | 2 | | | - | | | - | | | 0.0 | % |
B777-300ER | | 754 | | | 58 | | | 8 | | | 7 | | | 0.9 | % |
B787-10 | | 99 | | | 1 | | | - | | | - | | | 0.0 | % |
Experience has shown that when more than one percent of the fleet is available for sale, downward pressure begins on current market values.
13
VII. DISCLAIMER
It should be understood that BK Associates has neither inspected the Aircraft nor the maintenance records, but has relied upon the information provided by the addressee and in the BK Associates database. The assumptions have been made that upon delivery all Airworthiness Directives have been complied with; and accident damage has not been incurred that would affect market values. Further, BK has assumed, unless otherwise stated, that the Aircraft are in typical configuration for the type. Deviations from these assumptions can change significantly BK’s opinion regarding the values.
BK Associates, Inc. has no present or contemplated future interest in the Aircraft, nor any interest that would preclude making a fair and unbiased estimate. This appraisal represents the opinion of BK Associates, Inc. and reflects BK’s best judgment based on the information available at the time of preparation and the time and budget constraints imposed by the Client. It is not given as a recommendation, nor as an inducement, for any financial transaction and further, BK Associates, Inc. assumes no responsibility or legal liability for any action taken or not taken by the addressee, or any other party, with regard to the appraised equipment. By accepting this appraisal, the addressee agrees that BK Associates, Inc. shall bear no such responsibility or legal liability. This appraisal is prepared for the use of the addressee and shall not be provided to other parties without the express consent of the addressee.
| Sincerely, |
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| BK ASSOCIATES, INC. |
| |
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| Caelan Doherty |
| Financial Analyst |
| |
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| Simon Chang Director |
| |
| |
| Pooja Gardemal, CPA/ABV |
| Managing Director |
| ISTAT Certified Appraiser |
CD/SC/PG
14
FIGURE
UNITED AIRLINES
MAINTENANCE-ADJUSTED BASE VALUES (BV)
ALL VALUES IN U.S. $ MILLIONS
VALUES AS JUNE 1, 2024
Aircraft | Aircraft | Registration | Manufacturer's | Engine | Delivery | Mx-Adj* | |
No. | Type | Number | Serial Number | Type | Date | BV | |
1 | 737 MAX 8 | N27290 | 44309 | LEAP 1B-28 | Jun-23 | 54.49 | |
2 | 737 MAX 8 | N17312 | 64609 | LEAP 1B-28 | Jul-23 | 54.59 | |
3 | 737 MAX 8 | N37307 | 64608 | LEAP 1B-28 | Aug-23 | 54.69 | |
4 | 737 MAX 8 | N37324 | 67604 | LEAP 1B-28 | Dec-23 | 55.10 | |
5 | 737 MAX 8 | N47330 | 67588 | LEAP 1B-28 | Dec-23 | 55.10 | |
6 | 737 MAX 9 | N37560 | 67184 | LEAP 1B-28 | May-23 | 55.86 | |
7 | 737 MAX 9 | N37561 | 67590 | LEAP 1B-28 | May-23 | 55.86 | |
8 | 737 MAX 9 | N37562 | 67591 | LEAP 1B-28 | Jun-23 | 55.97 | |
9 | 737 MAX 9 | N37563 | 67187 | LEAP 1B-28 | Jun-23 | 55.97 | |
10 | 737 MAX 9 | N17565 | 67186 | LEAP 1B-28 | Jun-23 | 55.97 | |
11 | 737 MAX 9 | N17564 | 67188 | LEAP 1B-28 | Jun-23 | 55.97 | |
12 | 737 MAX 9 | N77573 | 67603 | LEAP 1B-28 | Aug-23 | 56.18 | |
13 | 737 MAX 9 | N77571 | 67193 | LEAP 1B-28 | Aug-23 | 56.18 | |
14 | 737 MAX 9 | N77575 | 67609 | LEAP 1B-28 | Aug-23 | 56.18 | |
15 | 737 MAX 9 | N77576 | 67610 | LEAP 1B-28 | Sep-23 | 56.29 | |
16 | 737 MAX 9 | N37577 | 67615 | LEAP 1B-28 | Sep-23 | 56.29 | |
17 | 777-300ER | N2251U | 66591 | GE90-115B | Jan-20 | 83.79 | ** |
18 | 777-300ER | N2352U | 66592 | GE90-115B | Mar-20 | 84.61 | ** |
19 | 787-10 | N14019 | 66988 | GEnx-1B70 | Nov-22 | 149.04 | |
20 | 787-10 | N13018 | 66987 | GEnx-1B70 | Nov-22 | 149.04 | |
21 | 787-10 | N12020 | 66989 | GEnx-1B70 | Dec-22 | 149.23 | |
22 | 787-10 | N12021 | 66990 | GEnx-1B70 | Dec-22 | 149.23 | |
23 | 787-10 | N14016 | 66985 | GEnx-1B70 | Dec-22 | 149.23 | |
24 | 737-800 | N76528 | 31663 | CFM56-7B26 | Oct-10 | 16.79 | |
25 | 737-800 | N76529 | 31652 | CFM56-7B26 | Dec-10 | 16.22 | |
26 | 737-800 | N77530 | 39998 | CFM56-7B26 | Mar-11 | 27.39 | |
27 | 737-800 | N87531 | 39999 | CFM56-7B26 | Mar-11 | 19.91 | |
28 | 737-900ER | N38443 | 31655 | CFM56-7B26 | Dec-10 | 16.23 | |
29 | 737-900ER | N36444 | 31643 | CFM56-7B26 | Dec-10 | 16.09 | |
30 | 737-900ER | N73445 | 40000 | CFM56-7B26 | Apr-11 | 16.71 | |
31 | 737-900ER | N38446 | 31661 | CFM56-7B26 | Jan-12 | 18.77 | |
32 | 737-900ER | N36447 | 31650 | CFM56-7B26 | Feb-12 | 19.42 | |
33 | 737-900ER | N78448 | 40003 | CFM56-7B26 | Mar-12 | 18.73 | |
34 | 737-900ER | N81449 | 31651 | CFM56-7B26 | Mar-12 | 20.46 | |
35 | 737-900ER | N39450 | 40004 | CFM56-7B26 | Apr-12 | 24.81 | |
36 | 737-900ER | N38451 | 31646 | CFM56-7B26 | Apr-12 | 19.20 | |
37 | 737-900ER | N68452 | 40005 | CFM56-7B26 | May-12 | 19.98 | |
38 | 737-900ER | N68453 | 41742 | CFM56-7B26 | May-12 | 19.87 | |
39 | 737-900ER | N38454 | 31640 | CFM56-7B26 | Jun-12 | 20.08 | |
40 | 737-900ER | N34455 | 41743 | CFM56-7B26 | Jun-12 | 19.62 | |
41 | 737-900ER | N37456 | 37205 | CFM56-7B26 | Sep-12 | 18.90 | |
42 | 737-900ER | N28457 | 41744 | CFM56-7B26 | Sep-12 | 18.79 | |
43 | 737-900ER | N38458 | 37199 | CFM56-7B26 | Sep-12 | 18.91 | |
44 | 737-900ER | N38459 | 37206 | CFM56-7B26 | Oct-12 | 19.10 | |
45 | 737-900ER | N34460 | 37200 | CFM56-7B26 | Nov-12 | 19.47 | |
46 | 737-900ER | N68811 | 42175 | CFM56-7B26 | Jan-14 | 21.75 | |
47 | 737-900ER | N61882 | 42201 | CFM56-7B26 | May-15 | 24.36 | |
48 | 737-900ER | N62883 | 42202 | CFM56-7B26 | Jun-15 | 24.10 | |
| | | | | | | |
* BK valued 2021 vintages and newer, assuming typical utilization. All other vintages are based on maintenance records provided by the Client. ** BK valued assuming half-life, based on typical utilization assumptions for 4-year old aircraft | |
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Extended Desktop Appraisal of:
Forty-Eight (48) Various Boeing Aircraft
Client:
United Airlines, Inc.
Date:
July 2, 2024
Headquarters: | |
|
2101 Wilson Boulevard Suite 1001 |
Arlington, Virginia 22201 USA |
Tel: +1 703 276 3200 |
Email: mba@mba.aero |
|
Americas | Europe | Asia | www.mba.aero |
Table of Contents
I. | Introduction and Executive Summary | 1 |
| | |
II. | Qualifications | 2 |
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III. | Current Market Conditions | 3 |
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| 737 MAX 8 | 14 |
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| 737 MAX 9 | 21 |
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| 737-800 | 26 |
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| 737-900ER | 32 |
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| 777-300ER | 38 |
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| 787-10 | 44 |
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IV. | Definitions | 49 |
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V. | Methodology | 50 |
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VI. | Valuation | 52 |
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VII. | Covenants | 58 |
| I. | Introduction and Executive Summary |
mba Aviation (mba) has been retained by United Airlines, Inc. (the “Client”) to provide an Extended Desktop Appraisal to determine the Half-Time and Maintenance-Adjusted Current Base Values of 48 various aircraft (the “Subject Aircraft”) as of June 1, 2024. The Subject Aircraft are fully identified in Section VI of this Report.
In performing this Appraisal, mba relied on industry knowledge and intelligence, confidentially obtained data points, its market expertise, and current analysis of market trends and conditions, along with value information from its quarterly publication REDBOOK– 2Q 2024.
Based on the information set forth in this Report, it is mba’s opinion that the total Current and Maintenance-Adjusted Base Values of the Subject Aircraft are as follows and as set forth in Section VI.
| Current Base Value (US$) | Maintenance-Adjusted Current Base Value (US$) |
(48) Subject Aircraft | $2,267,170,000 | $2,178,470,000 |
Section IV of this report presents definitions of various terms, such as Current Base Value as promulgated by the Appraisal Program of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading (ISTAT). ISTAT is a non-profit association of management personnel from banks, leasing companies, airlines, manufacturers, brokers, and others who have a vested interest in the commercial aviation industry and who have established a technical and ethical certification program for expert appraisers.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 1 of 58 | |
mba is a recognized provider of aircraft and aviation-related asset appraisals and inspections. mba and its principals have been providing appraisal services to the aviation industry for over 30 years, and its employees adhere to the rules and ethics set forth by the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading (ISTAT). mba employs a team of ISTAT Certified Appraisers and ISTAT Certified Senior Appraisers. mba’s clients include most of the world’s major airlines, lessors, financial institutions, and manufacturers and suppliers. mba maintains offices in North America, Europe, and Asia.
mba publishes quarterly values updates on its online platform REDBOOK, which provides current and projected aircraft values for the next 20 years for over 150 types of jet, turboprop, and cargo aircraft in addition to engines and helicopters.
mba also provides consulting services to the industry relating to operations, marketing, and management with an emphasis on financial/operational analysis, airline safety audits and certification, utilizing hands-on solutions to current situations. mba also provides expert testimony and witness support on cases involving collateral/asset disputes, bankruptcies, financial operations, safety, regulatory, and maintenance concerns.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 2 of 58 | |
| III. | Current Market Conditions |
GENERAL PASSENGER MARKET OBSERVATIONS – 2ND QUARTER 2024 |
A key component of any appraisal is an understanding of the market at the time the valuation is rendered, contextualized by recent notable developments. Though the past several years have been filled with uncertainty, the industry enters the second quarter of 2024 trusting that elevated interest and escalation rates will not hinder further recovery, though deferred aircraft deliveries and operators shedding staff are the newest concern. In the following sections, mba defines current and recent passenger air market conditions, highlights major factors influencing aircraft values, and offers mba’s view of the current market situation for each aircraft type examined in this valuation.
HISTORIC AND CURRENT PASSENGER TRAFFIC |
Air traffic demand growth is measured by Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs), the number of kilometers traveled by paying passengers, and has historically been a fundamental indicator of the industry's health. Annual macroeconomic factors like Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and microeconomic metrics like the number of new aircraft orders have typically been highly correlated to RPK growth and retraction, as seen in the chart below. RPKs are regularly analyzed alongside other airline monthly trailing indicators like Passenger Load Factor (PLF), a measure of how much capacity is filled, and Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs), which IATA defines as measures of carrying capacity available to generate revenue.
While 2018 marked the ninth consecutive year of more than 5.0% Year-over-Year (YoY) growth in RPKs, all regions began retracting in 2019, with North America and Europe stagnating. GDP rates, too, had begun flattening in 2018 and shrank further in 2019, especially in advanced economies. | | |
| | Sources: mba REDBOOK FLEET; Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs); International Monetary Fund (IMF); International Air Transport Association (IATA) |
Of course, all metrics saw a precipitous decline from 2020–2022, with RPKs falling nearly 95.0% in April and May 2020 and PLFs flagging greatly, even as the only flight activity proceeding was deemed critical to global infrastructure. While RPKs, PLFs, and ASKs have shown sustained growth since early 2021, total revenues began to match 2019 levels only in the last six months.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 3 of 58 | |
According to IATA, total RPKs in February 2024 are higher than the same period in 2019 for the first time, with 2H 2023 marking the first time that total RPKs were within 5.0% of 2019 levels and international RPKs were within 10.0% of 2019 levels. YoY total RPKs are up 21.5% in February 2024, with international RPKs up 26.3%. Total Market PLFs, too, have stabilized, averaging 83.6% over the second half of 2023, higher than the average PLF levels in 2018 or 2019.
Source: IATA
Global Domestic RPKs outstripped 2019 nearly every month in 2023. While global International RPKs still lag behind pre-pandemic highs, they were only ~4.3% down from 2019 in January 2024 and 0.9% above 2019 levels in February, compared to trailing 51.9% in 2022. North American carriers have fully recovered in terms of international RPKs, with February 2024 levels up 14.1% above 2019. Total RPKs were still down 0.4% from January 2019 levels, due primarily to Asia-Pacific International RPKs remaining 6.7% below January 2019 levels, though February total RPKs are 5.7% above those of February 2019. mba expects all markers to return to pre-COVID-19 levels moving forward into 2024.
As RPKs continue to improve, so do ASKs. mba expects continued recovery in ASKs in 2024 and beyond as travel demand and capacity reach and exceed 2019 levels. Total Market ASKs in 2023 exceeded 2018 levels and are only 5.9% below 2019 ASK levels, but still lag by 14.0% in the Asia Pacific region. Domestic ASKs have hit new records, rising to 13.7% above February 2019 highs, and global international ASKs in November and December were above the same months in 2019 for the first time since the pandemic. mba expects international ASKs to continue growing and reach 2019 levels throughout 2024.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 4 of 58 | |
Source: OAG
However, while many airlines were able to return to profitability in 2023, according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), 1,159 full-time or part-time airline positions were lost in January 2024, plus another 2,117 jobs for U.S. cargo airlines. In January, American Airlines announced layoffs of over 650 customer service employees, all non-union, and Delta Air Lines revealed that it will slow down pilot hiring in 2024. United Airlines announced in April that it is asking pilots to take voluntary unpaid leave for at least May 2024 due to delays in Boeing aircraft deliveries. Spirit Airlines stated it would defer all Airbus deliveries scheduled to deliver 2Q25 through 2029, not taking delivery until the beginning of 2030, boosting the airline’s liquidity by US$340 million (stated by the airline).
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 5 of 58 | |
Though headline and core inflation rates have stabilized and trended slightly downward in the Eurozone and the U.S., interest rates remain elevated, with the U.S. Fed Funds rate at 5.3% and the Eurozone rate at 4.5%. However, major central banks have begun talks of several interest rate cuts throughout 2024, providing investors with optimism.
Sources: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Trading Economics
| | As a result of inflation, escalation costs on new aircraft, engines, and parts have seen atypically high increases since 2021. The Industrial Commodities Producer Price Index (PPI), Civilian Aircraft Manufacturing PPI, and Employee Cost Index, indices used by OEMs to determine annual price escalation, experienced significant increases in recent years, though not at pace with core inflation. New aircraft prices saw an average compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 0.5–1.0% from 1999 to 2019. However, this includes a prolonged period of near-zero inflation and periods where new aircraft CAGR was closer to 1.5%. mba continues to monitor the impact of increased costs on escalation for new deliveries. |
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 6 of 58 | |
Additionally, much of the recent price increases in engines and parts have been prompted by the rise in cost of some of the most important raw materials in airplane manufacturing, including aluminum and titanium. It is also likely that such costs will continue to trend downward from early 2022 highs as inflation continues to trend lower. Both production indices have shown further signs of easing in 2024, bringing hope that escalation increases for both new deliveries and engines will slow. mba expects engine and parts escalation rates to remain elevated in the immediate future without becoming a long-term trend. | | |
| | Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) |
EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES ON AVIATION |
Historically, oil prices have strongly influenced aircraft values, typically constituting 20.0–30.0% of operators’ total expenses. Previous spikes led OEMs to quickly introduce more fuel-efficient aircraft, while fuel price drops have typically kept older aircraft in service longer. High and volatile fuel prices can significantly impact airlines’ balance sheets and, in some cases, have been the final nail in a cash-strapped airline’s coffin.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 7 of 58 | |
After a period of volatility between 2007 and 2011, oil prices remained over US$100.00 per barrel until the end of 2014, leading to the launch of the A320neo in December 2010 and the 737 MAX in mid-2011 as prices surged. Next generation widebodies, too, have been announced when oil prices are high, as the 787 was in 2004, when prices were climbing, and as the A330neo family was in July 2014, right at the tail end of another era of high oil prices. However, by January 2016, Brent Crude had fallen to a new 13-year low, dropping to US$26.00 per barrel. During this period, larger, older, less-efficient widebody aircraft were utilized in larger numbers, keeping residual values for such aircraft higher than one would expect in higher-fuel-price environments.
Oil prices in 2020 briefly fell to new 20-year lows but have since rebounded strongly; in 2022, oil prices rose above US$120.00 per barrel for the first time since 2015. In April 2023, OPEC announced that it would cut oil production by 3.7% of global demand, further limiting supply after a previous cut in October 2022, with yet another cut of over 1.0 billion barrels per day starting in 2024. As a result, prices are currently quite volatile and have decreased since June 2022. As of March 2024, the price of oil is around US$85.00 per barrel, increasing from a low of US$75.00 per barrel in June 2023. The outlook on prices remains highly uncertain.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 8 of 58 | |
NARROWBODY ORDERS AND DELIVERIES |
In 2023, orders for narrowbody aircraft rose to new heights thanks to continued demand for new technology narrowbody aircraft. The June Paris Airshow was a very busy time for both major OEMs’ narrowbody programs. IndiGo placed an order for 125 A320neos and 375 A321neos, which made history as the largest order in commercial aviation. Air India placed an order for 140 A320neos, 70 A321neos, 140 MAX 8s, and 50 MAX 10s, plus 30 787 widebodies. Though order books and backlogs remain strong, Boeing and Airbus continue to face issues delivering new aircraft due to ongoing supply chain pressures and manufacturing woes. | | |
| | Sources: Airbus, Boeing Orders and Deliveries |
Boeing has faced numerous new production issues with the MAX family, starting in April 2023 when a flaw in the manufacturing process was found to affect two of the components fitted on the aircraft. Another manufacturing defect was found in August 2023, causing additional delays in MAX production prior to the door plug failure early in 2024, which has curbed all MAX production in early 2024. The manufacturer had planned to ramp up production to 50 aircraft per month by 2026, but the U.S. Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) has limited the total number of monthly certificates for MAX aircraft to 38 for the foreseeable future. Actual delivery numbers have fallen short of this figure, with 25 delivered in January, 17 in February, and 24 in March. Airbus exceeded its 2023 target and confirmed a production rate of 75 aircraft by 2026. In 2024, Airbus has delivered were 28 narrowbodies in January, 45 in February, and 55 in March.
Sources: Boeing Commercial, Airbus Orders and Deliveries
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 9 of 58 | |
NARROWBODY UTILIZATION TRENDS |
Source: OAG Analyser
The utilization of narrowbody aircraft has mostly returned to pre-pandemic levels, with March 2024 narrowbody ASKs 9.2% above March 2019 levels, with every month since July 2023 exceeding 2024 ASKs. Utilization of narrowbody aircraft will likely remain strong in the near to mid-term as domestic travel demand continues to increase. The return to domestic travel levels seen pre-COVID-19 has been the primary catalyst for the recovery in values of new tech and mid-life narrowbody aircraft since bottoming out during the pandemic. Though delivery delays of new aircraft and durability issues of new tech narrowbody engines have led to narrowbody capacity restrictions, such circumstances are likely to support aircraft values further as operators frantically seek out aircraft to meet increasing domestic travel demand. mba holds a positive outlook on narrowbody aircraft values and expects Market Values to continue trending upward due to heightened demand and capacity shortfalls.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 10 of 58 | |
WIDEBODY ORDERS AND DELIVERIES |
Sources: Boeing Commercial, Airbus Orders and Deliveries
As international traffic demand recovers, widebody orders have been pouring in. A total of 737 widebody aircraft were ordered in 2023, compared to the last robust year, 2019, when 348 widebody aircraft were ordered. The A350 family was the most popular aircraft in the 2023 order book, with 300 orders. Orders for widebody aircraft will likely remain robust in 2024 as the outlook on international travel demand remains positive; although, the year has started off slowly, with only four orders for the 787-9, four for the A330-900neo, and one each for the A350-900 and -1000 through the end of February 2024.
Sources: Boeing and Airbus Orders and Deliveries, December 31, 2023
Though the backlogs for widebody aircraft remain strong, deliveries have lagged in the aftermath of the pandemic, largely due to continued supply chain pressures causing delivery delays at OEMs. Many operators have been forced to reactivate current generation widebody aircraft that they previously planned to retire as they attempt to meet capacity requirements due to recovering international travel demand. Lufthansa reactivated all ten of its Airbus A340-600 aircraft in the second quarter of 2023. After facing further delivery delays on widebody orders from both Boeing and Airbus, the airline announced it would also reactivate some of its A380s. mba expects deliveries to remain heavily dependent on whether and when supply chain pressures ease.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 11 of 58 | |
WIDEBODY UTILIZATION TRENDS |
Source: OAG Analyser
Unlike domestic travel levels, international travel recovery has lagged in the aftermath of the pandemic, causing depressed utilization of widebody aircraft in recent years. Widebody ASKs comprised 45.1% of total global ASKs in January 2019 and have climbed back to 40.0% of total global ASKs in March 2024 but have yet to rebound fully. However, with continued signs of recovery, international air travel is expected to fully recover sometime in 2024. Unlike the value trends seen for both mid-life and new technology narrowbody aircraft in recent years, the current and new generation of widebody aircraft experienced different impacts due to the pandemic. mba holds a cautious outlook on the current generation of widebody aircraft due to suppressed international travel demand and the long-term residual value impacts recently seen on various aircraft such as the 777-300ER, A380-800, and A330-200/300. However, mba’s outlook on new tech widebody aircraft remains neutral to positive as no residual value impacts were seen for these types. Order books have become very robust for new tech widebodies, and delivery rates are expected to increase as international travel demand further recovers and supply chain constraints ease.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 12 of 58 | |
Overall, the industry is continuing its comeback post-pandemic, though certain questions remain: most importantly, when international long-haul traffic will sustainably and fully rebound, how aircraft deferrals and slowed deliveries will affect capacity, what the effects of tightening monetary policy worldwide will be, and how current turbulent geopolitical conditions will affect the global economy. But the pandemic’s direct impacts on passenger air traffic appear to be behind us, and major indicators like increased flight demand, robust aircraft backlogs, sub-US$100 oil pricing, and quelling inflation and interest rates point to a recovery sooner and stronger than recently expected. While mba is monitoring the potentially unsustainable escalation in new aircraft and maintenance costs, the overall market sentiment going into 2024 is positive, with upward value movement seen across the most popular aircraft types and further improvements expected over the coming quarters.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 13 of 58 | |
737 MAX 8
The 737 MAX is the fourth generation of the Boeing 737 family, preceded by the Originals (i.e., -100 and -200), the Classics (i.e., -300, -400, and -500), and the Next Generation (NG) (i.e., the -600, -700, -800, -900, and -900ER). The 737 MAX 8, typically referred to as the 737-8 as part of Boeing’s refreshed marketing campaign, was the first delivered member of the MAX generation as the successor to the exceedingly popular 737-800. The aircraft was certified by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in March 2017 and delivered to Malaysian carrier Malindo Air that May. The 737 MAX 8 is fitted with sole-sourced CFM LEAP-1B engines, while its competitor, the A320neo, offers both CFM LEAP-1A engines and Pratt & Whitney PW1100 Geared Turbofan (GTF) engines. In addition to fuel-burn, noise, and emissions improvements, the MAX also offers longer airframe-check intervals, extending the C Check from 24 months to 36 months, the Heavy Check from 96 months to 108 months, and the Landing Gear Overhaul from 120 months to 144 months.
In March 2019, nearly two years into service, the MAX fleet was grounded by all major civil aviation authorities after the second fatal crash of the aircraft in six months. On November 18, 2020, 20 months after the grounding, the FAA published an Airworthiness Directive (AD) specifying “design changes that must be made before the aircraft returns to service,” finally opening up the path for the aircraft to return to service. Most other civil aviation authorities followed suit, including China, a long-time holdout that finally granted clearance for the operation of MAX aircraft in December 2023.
Positives
| + | Successor to the highly popular 737-800. |
| | |
| + | Order book holds a large, geographically diverse operator base. |
| | |
| + | Longer airframe maintenance intervals decrease operator costs over the life of the aircraft. |
| | |
| + | Sole-source engines ease remarketing to secondary operators. |
| | |
| + | LEAP-1B is marketed to have a 15.0% fuel-burn improvement over current technology engines. |
Neutral
| o | Not a clean-sheet replacement as originally intended. |
| o | The MAX 7’s delayed entry into service has prompted some customers to convert MAX 7 orders to MAX 8s. |
| o | The high-density configuration of the MAX 8, the -200, has only one operator currently, Ryanair. How it will be accepted by the secondary market remains to be seen. |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 14 of 58 | |
As of April 2024, approximately 1,300 commercial passenger 737 MAX 8 aircraft have been built, including 147 MAX 8-200s. A shrinking number remain undelivered with Boeing, currently 81*, down from over 300 after the grounding order was lifted. Most of these aircraft are based in China and, therefore, have yet to be certificated due to importation acceptance processes by the Chinese government. The 737 MAX 8 has slightly more orders than its closest competitor, the A320neo, which has 4,121 orders and 1,942 deliveries as of April 2024, according to Airbus. However, the A320neo family as a whole has received 10,501 net orders compared to the 737 MAX family’s 6,299 net orders. The actual total number of MAX 8 orders, including 200 seat variant currently stands at 4,413 aircraft with a backlog of 3,145 aircraft. After losing over 3,000 orders since the height of the order book, the total backlog for the family now stands at 4,813 commercial aircraft. Boeing’s 2024 production rate for the MAX aircraft is 38 per month, but plans to ramp up production have been halted by the FAA following the January 2024 Air Alaska MAX 9 door plug incident.
Net Orders | MAX 8 3,923 | MAX 8-200 490 |
Backlog | MAX 8 2,802 | MAX 8-200 343 |
Delivered | MAX 8 1,121 | MAX 8-200 147 |
Destroyed/Retired | 2 |
Undelivered | 81 |
Stored Aircraft | 61 |
Active Aircraft | MAX 8 1,019 | MAX 8-200 143 |
Number of Active Operators | 81 |
Number of Customers with Backlog | 62 |
Average Active Fleet Age (Yrs) | 3.47 |
*Undelivered fleet count is based on the result of the worldwide grounding of the MAX family in March 2019 and slow delivery of the built but parked aircraft Boeing manufactured during the grounding.
Sources: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024; Boeing Orders – April 30, 2024
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 15 of 58 | |
| Q | In May 2024, Copa Airlines announced its decision to delay the introduction of its 737 MAX 8 aircraft by six weeks on US routes, citing Boeings production delays and current delivery status. (Simple Flying) |
| | |
| Q | In May 2024, Air India Express received its first two of six 737 MAX 8 aircraft leased from AviLease (Aerotime) |
| | |
| Q | In April 2024, Australian LCC, Bonza, announced the suspension of all operations with immediate effect, as its fleet of four 737 MAX 8 aircraft were repossessed by lessor, AIP Capital. (LARA) |
| | |
| Q | In February 2024, Boeing announced that it will replace the head of its 737 MAX program, effective immediately. This comes after the latest incident involving an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9 aircraft in which a fuselage door plug became detached midflight, forcing pilots to make an emergency landing. During his tenure, the program faced several production issues and experienced two crashes that grounded all MAX aircraft for 20 months. (Reuters) |
| | |
| Q | In February 2024, Boeing announced it has more work to do on about 50 undelivered 737 MAX aircraft after its supplier, Spirit Aerosystems, discovered two mis-drilled holes on some fuselages. This will potentially delay some near term deliveries. (Reuters) |
| | |
| Q | In January 2024, Boeing delivered its first Boeing 737 MAX aircraft—a MAX 8 to China Southern Airlines—since March 2019, ending a four-year freeze on deliveries for the aircraft in China. (Reuters) |
| | |
| Q | In January 2024, the Federal Aviation Administration barred Boeing from expanding production of its 737 MAX planes, following “unacceptable” quality issues. This comes after a fuselage door plug on a 737 MAX 9 became detached midflight earlier in the month. (Reuters) |
| | |
| Q | In November 2023, Ethiopian Airlines placed an order for 20 737 MAX jets, nearly five years after the fatal 2019 crash. (Reuters) |
| | |
| Q | In August 2023, Boeing discovered improperly drilled holes on the aft pressure bulkhead on fuselages supplied by Spirit Aerosystems. The manufacturing glitch will cause some near-term delivery delays. (Seattle Times) |
| | |
| Q | In June 2023, it was reported that Boeing delivered 50 MAX aircraft in May compared to only 17 aircraft in the month prior when it experienced production quality control issues; it appears to have overcome the issue. (Reuters) |
| | |
| Q | In April 2023, Boeing experienced a production quality problem, that delayed deliveries of new MAX aircraft. The issue is related to two of several brackets in the aft fuselage of the plane. (CNBC) |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 16 of 58 | |
Southwest Airlines is the largest operator of the type with 223 aircraft delivered and also holds the largest backlog with 482 (unknown variants), which accounts for 10.0% of Boeing’s published backlog for MAX aircraft as of March 31, 2024. United Airlines holds the second largest share of the backlog, with 347 unfilled orders for MAX aircraft, although the majority of the aircraft the airline has accepted are MAX 9s, which is a likely indicator of the composition of the rest of its order book. While the number of delivered MAX aircraft continues to grow, operators are beginning to reintroduce previously parked fleets into active service. For example, nearly half of Southwest’s MAX fleet was parked as of October 2021, while none are stored as of April 2024. The largest operator holding a relatively small percentage of the total fleet is a strong indication that the aircraft will have a highly diverse operator base.
The 737 MAX 8 is a popular aircraft with both low-cost and network carriers and has been used on both domestic and short-haul international flights. Though short- to medium-haul international routes have been predominately served by widebody aircraft, the 737 MAX 8 allowed operators to decrease capacity and boost load factors on thinner routes. It should be noted that three of the five largest customers for the MAX have order books that will potentially double and, in some cases, triple their existing fleets. There have been concerns that LCCs with large order books may cancel or defer part of their orders for both the MAX and Airbus A320neo families as passenger traffic is likely to take several years to return to pre-COVID levels.
Five Largest 737 MAX 8 Current Operators (Delivered Fleet)
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 17 of 58 | |
Current Fleet by Region
North America is currently home to the largest fleet of 737 MAX 8, with 38.9% of the total delivered fleet. Europe is home to 20.6%, followed by Asia, with 17.0% of the fleet. As the aircraft is relatively new, the regional diversity represented in the chart to the right is a positive indicator, as future deliveries could see the number of operators and geographical diversity increase. | |
| Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024 |
According to MyAirTrade, as of May 2024, one 737 MAX 8 aircraft is currently available for ACMI lease. Availability was high during the pandemic but peaked in mid-2023, with six aircraft listed for lease only, and has steadily declined since October 2023.
737 MAX 8 Availability
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 18 of 58 | |
In May 2020, in anticipation of the MAX grounding being lifted in the second half of the year, Boeing restarted production of the MAX with new procedures in place to reduce incidences of foreign object debris (FOD) damage and increase production efficiency. While 2019 saw the most 737 MAX 8 aircraft assembled, a portion of these aircraft have yet to be delivered due to the grounding of the 737 MAX family. The current production rate is stated to be 38 MAX aircraft per month.
737 MAX Delivered to Date
Sources: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024; Boeing Orders – April 30, 2024
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 19 of 58 | |
mba’s Aircraft Ranking model considers numerous factors that affect an aircraft’s market standing on a scale specifically developed for each asset class. These ranking factors are individually weighted and compared against each other to develop mba’s overall ranking score for each aircraft type, which is expressed on a scale of 1.00 to 10.00. The most prevalent aircraft configurations are used in the ranking analysis, which can be further identified in mba’s REDBOOK publication or web-based valuation service. | |
The 737 MAX 8 ranks lower than the A320neo but has the third highest score for a narrowbody aircraft and has improved steadily since the end of the grounding. As more aircraft are delivered and entered back into service, mba anticipates the 737 MAX 8 will exhibit one of the best scores for narrowbodies, though it will continue to be held back slightly by the low number of seats compared to larger narrowbody aircraft.
Despite the grounding and several years of cancelations, the MAX program has a larger order book than ever, though its competition, the A320neo family, has been much more successful to date. Due to its size, the 737 MAX 8 aircraft is well positioned to eventually replace the 737-800, of which there were over 5,000 delivered. However, several years of low-priced oil in the mid-2010s hindered the 737 MAX 8’s initial success as operators delayed their transition to the 737 MAX 8 in favor of the lower acquisition cost of the 737-800. A different factor that may affect MAX 8 sales is the number of other variants of the MAX family, which may cannibalize some MAX 8 orders while still not offering the range and passenger capacity of the larger Airbus A321neo.
Since the aircraft’s return to service, mba’s long-term outlook for the 737 MAX 8 has been favorable and is improving as the program matures and its order book grows.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 20 of 58 | |
737 MAX 9
The 737 MAX 9 is a stretched version of the 737 MAX 8 and is the intended successor to the Boeing 737-900ER. The 737 MAX 9’s first flight was completed on April 13, 2017, and the first aircraft was delivered to Lion Air (Indonesia) in March 2018. While offering the same number of seats as the 737-900ER (178 standard, 220 maximum), the 737 MAX 9 provides an increased Maximum Take-off Weight (MTOW) of 194,700 lb. over the -900ER’s 187,700 lb. and an increased range of nearly 600 nautical miles (NM), up to 3,515 NM. The 737 MAX 9 is powered by two CFM LEAP-1B engines, which offer up to 14.0% fuel-burn improvements over the current generation CFM56-7B engines. Although the exact backlog for the variant is not disclosed among the backlog of 4,287 MAX orders, the MAX 9 variant appears to trail behind the other variants.
In March 2019, nearly two years into service, the MAX fleet was grounded by all major civil aviation authorities after the second fatal crash of the aircraft in six months. On November 18, 2020, 20 months after the grounding, the FAA published an Airworthiness Directive (AD) specifying “design changes that must be made before the aircraft returns to service.” The FAA also published the MAX training requirements that must be met before commercial operations may resume in the U.S., stating that these actions alone do not allow the plane to return to service immediately. The FAA must approve each U.S.-based operator’s pilot training revisions, and FAA-mandated maintenance will be required of each parked aircraft. In January 2021, EASA, the U.K. CAA, and Transport Canada also announced the approval of Boeing’s software and training updates to allow the 737 MAX to return to service, followed shortly thereafter by the CAAs of India, Brazil, and several other countries. China has not yet recertified the aircraft, but significant progress has been made toward these efforts, and recertification is imminent in the country.
Positives
| + | Sole-source engines will ease remarketing to secondary operators. |
| | |
| + | The new engine technology of the CFM LEAP-1B provides better fuel economy than the previous generation of aircraft. |
| | |
| + | Increased MTOW and range over the 737-900ER provide operators with new route opportunities. |
Negatives
| − | As of January 2024, the MAX 9’s direct competitor, the A321neo, has sold significantly more aircraft, with 6,169 orders and 1,246 deliveries. |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 21 of 58 | |
During the worst of the pandemic and MAX grounding, Boeing saw over 700 cancellations of MAX orders. However, since Boeing does not publish the MAX order book by variant, it is difficult to establish exact numbers by variant. The 737 MAX 9 was originally designed to compete with Airbus’s A321neo. Sensing that the 737 MAX 9 was struggling to compete against the A321neo, Boeing launched the 737 MAX 10. Although the 737 MAX 10 could draw more orders to the 737 MAX family overall, it has negatively impacted the 737 MAX 9 order book as many customers have converted their 737 MAX 9 orders to the larger 737 MAX 10.
| | 737 MAX 91 |
Net Orders | | 340 |
Backlog | | 124 |
Delivered | | 216 |
Destroyed/Retired | | 0 |
Not in Service/Parked | | 8 |
Active Aircraft | | 208 |
Number of Identified Customers2 | | 11 |
Sources: mba REDBOOK FLEET, May 2024; Boeing, Airline Press Releases
| Q | In February 2024, Boeing complied with an FAA request to cap 737 MAX production at 38 aircraft per month while the manufacturer worked through its quality control issues. (Aviation Week) |
| | |
| Q | In January 2024, an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9 aircraft was involved in an incident in which a plug door unexpectedly blew out mid-flight, causing rapid cabin decompression. As a result, the FAA issued an Emergency Airworthiness Directive, and all 737 MAX 9 aircraft equipped with cabin exit door plugs were grounded for inspection before being able to return to service. (Aviation Week) |
| | |
| Q | In February 2023, Hong Kong-based airline Greater Bay Airlines announced its consideration for an order of 15 737 MAX 9 aircraft. (Bloomberg) |
1 Confirmed orders.
2 Includes aircraft lessors, which will place their aircraft with a number of different operators.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 22 of 58 | |
United Airlines is currently the largest operator of the MAX 9, with 75 active aircraft. The number of MAX 9 aircraft in service has slowly increased over the last year, from 124 in January 2023 to 215 in April 2024. Due to Boeing’s policy allowing operators to choose variants closer to production, the number of MAX 9 operators may grow over the coming years as both domestic and international air traffic return to normal levels.
Five Largest 737 MAX 9 Operators by Active Fleet
Sources: mba REDBOOK FLEET, May 2024; Boeing, Airline Press Releases
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 23 of 58 | |
Current Fleet by Region
North American operators, led by United, operate more than half of all delivered MAX 9s. Yet, there is a small operator base and relatively sparse geographical distribution. Should the order book not expand, remarking opportunities for the MAX 9 aircraft may be unfavorable compared to those of the MAX 8 and MAX 10 variants.
Sources: mba REDBOOK FLEET, May 2024; Boeing, Airline Press Releases
mba’s Aircraft Ranking model considers numerous factors that affect an aircraft’s market standing on a scale specifically developed for each asset class. These ranking factors are individually weighted and compared against each other to develop mba’s overall ranking score for each aircraft type, which is expressed on a scale of 1.00 to 10.00. The most prevalent aircraft configurations are used in the ranking analysis, which can be further identified in mba’s REDBOOK publication or web-based valuation service. The 737 MAX 9 currently scores lower than its current generation competitors. This is due to the minimal number of known orders, operators, and delivered fleet. However, the 737 MAX 9 is still a very capable aircraft, and it scores high marks for its engine technology, max payload range, and passenger capacity. The 737 MAX 9’s score will increase if Boeing wins additional orders for the aircraft in the near future. | | |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 24 of 58 | |
The long-term outlook for the 737 MAX 9 is uncertain as the manufacturer continues to experience set backs and production delays, and the aircraft continues to be looked over in favor of the range of the MAX 8 and capacity of the MAX 10. Due to Boeing’s flexibility with regard to changing between the 737 MAX variants, it is unclear what the total 737 MAX 9 orders will be in the future but mba does not believe the order book will grow favorably. Based on new orders as of May 2024, the MAX 9 appears to be the least sought-after, with only 5.5% of the known orders going to the variant and even the niche MAX 8-200 and MAX 7 narrowly beat the MAX 9 in gross order. Without a defined market segment, the aircraft is in a unique situation where it can compete with Airbus in range but not in size of the base spec A321neo. Given the continued need for larger, more seat-cost-efficient narrowbody aircraft, the 737 MAX 9 has become a niche aircraft in Boeing’s portfolio and does not provide the versatility many airlines seek in the narrowbody space. However, with top airlines and flag carriers taking initial deliveries of the aircraft, the 737 MAX 9 may retain value similar to the 737-900ER as operators hold onto the aircraft for the majority of its economic life. mba has a cautious outlook on the values for the MAX 9 but believes there is potential for the aircraft to have stable residual values given its strong operator base.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 25 of 58 | |
737-800
The 737-800 is the bestselling version of the 737NG family of aircraft, which also includes the 737-600, 737-700, 737-900, and 737-900ER. The 737-800 was built to replace the 737-400 and is a stretched version of the 737-700. The aircraft entered service with Hapag-Lloyd Flug (TUIfly) in 1998 and has been a commercial success for Boeing, selling nearly 5,000 commercial units. Even with the launch of the 737 MAX 8, which replaced the 737-800, demand for the 737-800 remains strong.
After over 20 years in production, the backlog for the 737-800 has effectively closed, with the last delivery made in 2020. Many carriers in the U.S. initially ordered the aircraft to replace older types like the Boeing 727-200, MD-80, and MD-90. Its secondary market has grown to include flag carriers, start-ups, low- and ultra-low-cost carriers (LCCs/ULCCs), and charter operators. The 737-800 operates with sole-source CFM56-7B engines and standard blended winglets, but customers also have the option of purchasing “Split-Scimitar” winglets, further enhancing fuel efficiency.
Positives
| + | Most popular member of the highly successful 737NG family. |
| | |
| + | Large operator base is geographically diverse, allowing for easier remarketing. |
| | |
| + | Well-received by various operator types. |
| | |
| + | Sole-source engines ease remarketing to secondary operators. |
Neutral
| o | Based on the number of current conversion orders, the 737-800 has exceeded the popularity of its predecessor, the 737-400, as a converted freighter. IAI, AEI, and Boeing currently offer freighter conversions. |
Negatives
| − | The 737 MAX reentered passenger service in December 2020 and has been recertified by all major civil aviation authorities, which will likely negatively impact the 737-800’s medium- to long-term values. |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 26 of 58 | |
As of April 2024, 4,410 active passenger 737-800 aircraft are currently in service with 165 operators. Since the start of the 737-800’s production run, Boeing has received 4,989 orders for passenger 737-800s, making it the most popular aircraft variant based on orders. The A320-200 is a close second with 4,743 commercial orders. Demand for the 737-800 in a freighter role has accelerated since the pandemic began, with lessors looking for alternative opportunities to place their parked aircraft and cargo operators seeking additional capacity to meet growing e-commerce demands. As of April 2024, 192 737-800s have been converted to freighters; conversion slots remain filled, helping remove excess capacity for the type in the secondary market.
Net Orders | | 4,989 |
Backlog | | 2 |
Delivered | | 4,987 |
Destroyed/Retired | | 136 |
Not in Service/Long-Term Storage | | 221 |
Converted to Freighter | | 192 |
Converted to Other | | 28 |
Active Passenger Aircraft | | 4,410 |
Number of Active Operators | | 165 |
Average Fleet Age (Yrs) | | 12.70 |
Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024
| Q | In April 2024, Sudan-based Bard Airlines acquired a 2011-vintage 737-800, the first owned by the operator. (AirFinance Journal) |
| | |
| Q | In April 2024, Sun Country Airlines acquired its second 737-800 this year. The first was a 2014-vintage ex-Pegasus Airlines aircraft; the second is a 2010-vintage ex-Air Austral aircraft. (AirFinance Journal) |
| | |
| Q | On April 7, 2024, a Southwest Airlines 737-800 lost its engine cover during takeoff. The following week, a United Airlines 737-800 arrived at its destination missing a panel next to the main landing gear. The FAA has indicated that they will investigate both matters. (Reuters) |
| | |
| Q | In January 2024, Alaska Airlines announced that it would invest US$130 million in cabin upgrades for its 737-800 fleet. (Simple Flying) |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 27 of 58 | |
Ryanair Holdings Group, which includes Ryanair and its eponymous subsidiaries as well as Malta Air and Buzz, is the largest operator of the 737-800 with 411 aircraft, 8.9% of the in-service fleet. The fact that the largest operator holds such a small percentage of the total fleet positively indicates a highly diverse operator base. The 737-800 is a popular aircraft with both LCCs and network carriers and can be used on domestic and short-haul international flights. The aircraft typically seats 162 passengers but can carry up to 189 passengers in a single-class layout, which is the current configuration of over one-third of the fleet. The 737-800 is also approved for 180-minute ETOPS by the FAA, allowing for flexibility on which routes operators can use the aircraft. North American carriers have taken advantage of the 737-800’s ETOPS certification by flying the aircraft from the West Coast of the U.S. to Hawaii. These routes previously were served by large widebody aircraft, but the 737-800 has allowed operators to decrease capacity and boost load factors on the routes.
Five Largest 737-800 Operators
Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 28 of 58 | |
Current Fleet by Region | | |
| | |
Asia, home to the largest global share of narrowbody aircraft, also has the largest fleet of 737-800s, with 38.2% of the total fleet. The aircraft is popular with LCCs and legacy carriers both in Asia and the rest of the world. As airlines restructure their fleets and the MAX program matures, aircraft breakdown by region is expected to change over the next few years. | | Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024 |
According to MyAirTrade, as of May 2024, 11 737-800 aircraft are currently available for sale or lease, representing approximately 0.24% of the active and parked fleet. Four are available for sale only, one is available for both sale and lease, and six are available for lease only. Availability has declined steadily from the peak of over 50 available in 2021, as more aircraft are moved into conversion or entering back into service to meet growing passenger demand, but during the low season, more aircraft tend to become available.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 29 of 58 | |
Like comparable narrowbody aircraft, the 737-800 experienced a boom in demand in the early 2010s as operators looked to increase load factors on routes previously served by twin-aisle aircraft. The emergence of LCCs in middle to low-income countries and the steady development of regional airlines in China also contributed to the aircraft segment’s rapid growth. In 2018, the 737-800 deliveries dramatically declined due to the introduction of the 737 MAX. There have not been any additional orders since the start of 2020, despite the grounding of the MAX, and only two deliveries to an unidentified party remain in the backlog.
Sources: mba REDBOOK FLEET; Boeing
*While two aircraft remain officially on the backlog, they are unlikely to ever be produced.
mba’s Aircraft Ranking model considers numerous factors that affect an aircraft’s market standing on a scale specifically developed for each asset class. These ranking factors are individually weighted and compared against each other to develop mba’s overall ranking score for each aircraft type, which is expressed on a scale of 1.00 to 10.00. The most prevalent aircraft configurations are used in the ranking analysis, which can be further identified in mba’s publication REDBOOK or web-based valuation service. | | |
Until 2018, the 737-800 held the highest score of all aircraft evaluated by mba, but its score has declined over the years as its backlog depleted and the A320neo family and MAX markets matured. The aircraft benefits from its popularity, as it scores high marks for net orders, deliveries, and total active aircraft. Its multiple freighter-conversion options will help extend the life of the aircraft and offer additional secondary market opportunities. mba anticipates that the 737-800’s ranking will fall further should more aircraft become available, but it has room to strengthen if the market stabilizes further.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 30 of 58 | |
The short-term outlook for the 737-800 is positive, as the aircraft is well positioned in terms of passenger capacity, operator ubiquity, and freighter conversion capability, while availability for passenger aircraft remains tight. In the long term, the outlook is neutral, as the 737-800 continues to lose market share to its successor, the MAX 8. The 737-800 benefitted from the MAX grounding in March 2019, which lasted for 22 months, pushing the Market Values up during the latter half of 2019 and into 2020 before COVID-19. While the 737 MAX 8 is not a true clean-sheet design, it does offer a 15.0% fuel-burn improvement and lower emissions than its predecessor.
Market Values for the 737-800 came down an average of 13.0% at their lowest point during the active COVID-19 era, though the impact varied by vintage and was similar in decline to the A320-200. mba anticipates most airlines will hold onto younger 737-800s while older vintages continue to be placed into conversion. While the aircraft has seen strong value recovery with the return of passenger traffic and increased freighter and parts demand, there is still concern for value volatility in the medium to long term. The aircraft will likely face increased retirements as the MAX becomes ubiquitous and the converted freighter begins to reach market saturation.
Due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, values for older 737-800s reached a level where freighter conversion began making economic sense, and the diminishing feedstock of 737-400 aircraft viable for freighter conversion has made the business case for converting the 737-800 even stronger. The first 737-800BCF was delivered to GECAS in April 2018, well ahead of the A321P2F, which was delivered in October 2020. The 737-800BCF currently accommodates 11 full-size pallets compared to ten on the A320P2F and 14 on the A321P2F. While it remains to be seen whether the 737-800 will achieve the same success as previous Boeing Converted Freighters while facing new competition from Airbus products, so far, it has proven to be very popular with airlines and lessors and provides a second life to the 737-800 program.
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 31 of 58 | |
737-900ER
The Boeing 737-900 entered service in 2001 with Alaska Airlines and ended production four years later in 2005, after only 52 deliveries, due to a lack of orders. In 2007, the 737-900ER was introduced in its place, entering service with Indonesian low-cost carrier (LCC) Lion Air as the newest member of the 737NG family. The 737-900ER features an additional pair of exit doors and a flat rear pressure bulkhead to increase interior accommodation to 180 passengers in a typical two-class configuration or up to 215 passengers in a single-class configuration. The aircraft has the same external dimensions as the 737-900 but features an increased MTOW of 187,700 lb., strengthened landing gear and wing structures, up to two optional auxiliary fuel tanks, and winglets. These improvements allow for a range of 3,265 NM, carrying 180 passengers with the installation of the two auxiliary fuel tanks and winglets. In 2013, Boeing announced further improvements to the aircraft with the introduction of optional split-scimitar winglets for new delivery aircraft or as a retrofittable option for existing fleets. The split scimitars provide approximately 1.8% additional fuel-burn benefit.
Positives
| + | Sole-sourced engines ease remarketing to secondary operators. |
| + | Commonality with other 737NG variants may increase the potential operator base when remarketing. |
| + | Aircraft that have come off initial leases have typically been placed quickly, even during the pandemic. |
| + | No published availability for sale or lease. |
Negatives
| − | Aircraft production was completed in 2019 with no additional orders as operators’ order books favor the 737 MAX and A321neo. |
| − | The two largest operators fly nearly 60.0% of the 737-900ER fleet, which may cause market softness if one operator retires their fleet. |
| − | The program was not as popular as its competitor, the A321-200. |
| − | Limited regional distribution due to the aircraft's niche purpose may limit long-term secondary market opportunities for the type. |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 32 of 58 | |
As of April 2024, 493 active 737-900ER aircraft are in service with 17 operators. An additional 11 aircraft are in long-term storage, the lowest number since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and an ex-SpiceJet aircraft was parted out in early 2024. Boeing received 505 orders for the type, far underselling its main competitor, the A321-200, which received 1,791 orders.
Net Orders | 505 |
Backlog | 0 |
Delivered | 505 |
Destroyed/Retired | 1 |
Not in Service/Stored | 11 |
Active Aircraft | 493 |
Number of Operators | 17 |
Average Fleet Age (Yrs) | 10.1 |
Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024
| Q | In April 2024, Ukrainian airline Skyline Express received its first 737-900ER aircraft, previously operated in Turkey by Mavi Gök Airlines. (CAPA) |
| Q | In April 2024, Indonesian carrier Lion Air accepted delivery of a 2015-vintage 737-900ER, the ex-Srijiwaya Air aircraft that had been in storage since 2021. (AirFinance Journal) |
| Q | In January 2024, the FAA recommended door plug inspections for 737-900ER operators, following the incident with Alaska Airlines’ 737 MAX 9 door plug, which was also adopted and recommended for European operators by EASA. (Reuters) |
| Q | In June 2023, Aeroflot announced it would acquire two more 737-900ERs on lease despite economic sanctions on Russia. (Aviation Week) According to mba’s REDBOOK FLEET, as of January 2024, these aircraft have not yet begun operating for Aeroflot. |
| Q | In April 2023, Sun Country Airlines entered a deal to acquire the five 737-900ER aircraft that Oman Air is retiring. The first aircraft will be delivered in late 2024, and the subsequent aircraft will be delivered throughout 2025. (Airways) |
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With its addition of 33 ex-Lion Air 737-900ERs, Delta Air Lines continues growing as the type's largest operator. As of April 2024, Delta operates 163 total aircraft, nearly one-third of the fleet. The second largest operator is United Airlines, which has 136 total aircraft, accounting for 27.0% of the fleet, many of which were inherited from Continental Airlines after the 2010 merger. U.S. operators often use the 737-900ER on transcontinental routes with high passenger demand previously served by widebody aircraft. The 737-900ER’s range and MTOW capability allow operators to perform longer flights with increased load factors. Though the 737-900ER has a heavy presence among limited operators, the aircraft is mainly operated by carriers who have historically held onto fleets for most of their economic lives. Lion Air, which accounts for 12.5% of the 737-900ER fleet, suffered significant financial distress early in the pandemic. However, it found some relief in shedding the aircraft that went to Delta and has successfully restructured most of its leases, assuring lessors of plans for continuation.
Five Largest 737-900ER Operators
Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 34 of 58 | |
Current Fleet by Region | | |
| | |
North American carriers operate 75.0% of all 737-900ERs, as the aircraft is well-suited to transcontinental routes and flights from the U.S. West Coast to Hawaii. Asia is home to 17.3% of 737-900ERs, mainly consisting of aircraft operated by Lion Air Group airlines. The aircraft is not as popular in other regions; the Middle East is home to 6.3% of the fleet, and Europe is home to only 1.4% of the fleet. There are no 737-900ER aircraft operating in Africa, Latin America, or Oceania, where the A321-200 is the preferred large narrowbody aircraft. | | Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024 |
According to MyAirTrade, as of May 2024, no 737-900ERs are listed as available. The last remaining SpiceJet aircraft had been available until it was returned to its lessor during the pandemic, where it remained stored until finally being scrapped in January 2024. The 737-900ER’s low availability reflects the young average fleet age and the leading operators’ preference for keeping aircraft for most of their economic life.
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Similar to the A321-200, the 737-900ER increased in popularity in the mid-2010s due to network carriers upgauging their fleets as a reaction to increased competition on routes. Operators also looked to increase load factors on routes previously served by larger twin-aisle aircraft. The correlation between load factors and increased 737-900ER orders can be seen in the graph below, though the correlation diverted when the MAX aircraft began to enter service in 2017. The 737-900ER completed deliveries in 2019 and currently has no additional orders.
Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET
mba’s Aircraft Ranking model considers numerous factors that affect an aircraft’s market standing on a scale specifically developed for each asset class. These ranking factors are individually weighted and compared against each other to develop mba’s overall ranking score for each aircraft type, which is expressed on a scale of 1.00 to 10.00. The most prevalent aircraft configurations are used in the ranking analysis, which can be further identified in mba’s REDBOOK publication or web-based valuation service. | | |
The 737-900ER’s score currently lags well behind its main competitors due to low orders and deliveries, a completed backlog, and a very small operator base. The aircraft scores high marks for its young age, max payload range performance, and low availability and percentage of the fleet in storage. Given the out-of-production status, the 737-900ER’s score is expected to continue to decline in the medium to long term.
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mba has a positive near-term outlook for the 737-900ER as the majority of the operators are high-credit airlines, and the few aircraft that have entered the secondary market in the past have been placed quickly. However, its competitor, the A321-200, was a more commercially successful platform. The long-term outlook will be shaped by the future success of the 737 MAX 9, 737 MAX 10, and A321neo programs. While not a true clean-sheet replacement, the MAX represents a break in production, and the last 737-900ER manufactured will suffer the most from a value perspective. In addition, due to the young age and inability to carry LD3 containers in the belly hold, the 737-900ER is not as good a candidate for freighter conversions as the A321. However, the aircraft benefits from being held by stable U.S. carriers that tend to hold onto fleets for the majority of their economic lives, which should help keep a large number of aircraft out of the secondary market.
The aircraft has benefitted from the significant recovery of global domestic traffic within the last two years, especially in North America, where the aircraft is predominately based. The 737-900ER has a limited operator base, and while availability increased slightly during the summer of 2022, it has historically experienced limited to no availability. Due to the aircraft's niche role for its largest operators, the 737-900ER saw moderate Market Value impacts throughout the pandemic era, which the aircraft has since recovered. mba anticipates values will remain at or above Base Value in the near term, with little to no residual value impacts for the type in the mid-term. In the long term, values may become more volatile as the aircraft enters the end of its life and its current operators begin to retire the fleet.
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777-300ER
The 777-300ER is an extended-range variant of the 777-300 aircraft, which itself is a stretched version of the 777-200 and 777-200ER. With a stretched fuselage increasing passenger capacity, the 777-300 and 777-300ER are capable of transporting 63 additional passengers in a typical three-class configuration (up to 339 total), whereas in a single-class configuration, they can seat an additional 110 passengers (up to a 396 total). Though the 777-300ER is the same size as the 777-300, it offers a further 2,000 NM range, allowing the aircraft to compete on routes previously dominated by four-engine widebody aircraft. The newer technology and operating economics of the twin-engine 777 family have made it one of the most popular widebody aircraft families of all time. In some cases, operators of four-engine aircraft opted to replace aircraft like the 747 with the 777-300ER, as the type offers similar capacity and range with the benefit of reduced operating costs.
Positives
| + | Healthy geographic distribution, particularly popular in Asia and the Middle East. |
| + | GE90-115B is the sole-source engine, which aids in remarketing. |
| + | One of the most popular widebody aircraft in terms of total orders. |
| + | Freighter conversion programs are unlikely to begin delivering until late 2024, which should help absorb some of the aircraft entering the market in the near term. |
| + | Fewer aircraft are currently stored than at any point since the pandemic, a positive sign for utilization. |
Neutral
| o | Emirates flies a significant portion of the fleet, loosely tying the residual value to the airline’s fleet plans. |
| o | Currently, 35 777-300ERs are operated in Russia; nearly half of these are leased and, therefore, subject to current sanctions. They may never enter the market again and instead be written off by lessors. |
Negatives
| − | High cost of ownership remains a barrier to entry for secondary operators. |
| − | A large number of unplaced aircraft coming off their first leases during the pandemic negatively affected values. |
| − | New technology aircraft like the 777-9 and the A350-1000 have the potential to negatively impact the residual values of the 777-300ER. |
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As of April 2024, 756 777-300ER passenger-configured aircraft are actively flying with 42 operators; another 42 aircraft are in long-term storage (not including those aircraft already acquired for and awaiting conversion). The 777-300ER was able to command a strong order book due to a lack of competing aircraft from Airbus for 15 years but has not had a new order since 2019. The five remaining orders on backlog are unlikely to be delivered. While Airbus has since introduced the A350-1000, which entered service in early 2018, that aircraft has met lukewarm demand, with only 299 orders, according to Airbus’s latest published data. Boeing’s replacement for the 777-300ER, the 777-9, has seen stronger demand, with 383 orders for the type as of March 31, 2024; however, the 777-9 has been delayed until at least late 2025 due to certification requirements. This may help support 777-300ER availability and values in the short term, but will likely negatively impact values in the longer term as more aircraft enter the secondary market. Due to the uncertainty surrounding actual deliveries of the 777-9 and the relatively young age of the 777-300ER active fleet, many existing operators have not placed an order for a replacement aircraft.
Net Orders | 837 |
Backlog | 5* |
Delivered | 832 |
Destroyed/Retired | 17 |
Aircraft in/acquired for Freighter Conversion | 11 |
Converted to VIP/Other | 6 |
Not in Service/Long-Term Storage | 42 |
Active Aircraft | 756 |
Number of Operators | 42 |
Average Fleet Age (Yrs) | 11.12 |
Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024
* The remaining backlog belongs to Pakistan International Airlines, which has held this order unfilled for over ten years, rendering the production line effectively closed.
| Q | In March 2024, AviaAM transferred its second of six 777-300ER aircraft for freighter conversion with Mammoth, with future plans to operate on transatlantic or China-EU routes. (Flight Global) |
| Q | In March 2024, Philippine Airlines took delivery of its tenth 777-300ER, an ex-Garuda aircraft, on long-term lease; a second such aircraft is expected to deliver later this year. (Aviator) |
| Q | In December 2023, Turkmenistan Airlines received its first 777-300ER aircraft, previously operated by Cathay Pacific (Aviation Source News) |
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Emirates operates the largest number of 777-300ERs with 123 aircraft, representing 15.4% of the passenger fleet. Qatar Airways comes in a distant second with 53 aircraft, representing 6.6% of the fleet. Network carriers almost exclusively operate the 777-300ER, as they have the infrastructure and demand for the routes that can support large widebody aircraft. A concern for the 777-300ER is that such a large fleet share is concentrated with a select few carriers. Once these carriers retire their 777-300ER fleets, owners may have difficulty finding secondary market opportunities for every aircraft should large numbers of aircraft be placed on the market in a short time span. Nearly every 777-300ER that entered the secondary market pre-pandemic found a new operator, with most going to Russia. Due to sanctions against Russia, the secondary market has become much smaller for the type.
Five Largest 777-300ER Operators
Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 40 of 58 | |
Current Fleet by Region | | |
| | |
The majority of 777-300ERs are located in Asia and the Middle East. The 777-300ER has both the capacity and the range to meet the somewhat unique needs of carriers in both regions. The 777-300ER has helped Hong Kong, Dubai, and Doha airports to become major hubs, as operators use layovers to connect Asia and the Middle East to the rest of the world. While Asia holds a slightly larger share of active aircraft with 37.0% of the fleet, the aircraft is more widely distributed among carriers in that region compared to the Middle East, where only a few operators control 34.8% of the active global fleet. | | Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024 |
Adding to that concern, operators in the Middle East account for large shares of the 777X and A350-1000 order books. With such large orders placed, mba expects the regional fleet distribution to change once these replacement aircraft enter service in large numbers.
According to MyAirTrade, as of May 2024, one 777-300ER is available on the market for sale or lease, currently operating for Cathay Pacific. This is a recent low after the removal of ten ex-Etihad aircraft late in 2022.
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Demand for the 777-300ER increased between 2011 and 2014 as oil prices soared. Operators started to look for an alternative to inefficient four-engine aircraft, and the twin-engine 777-300ER offered operators similar capacity but at reduced operating costs. In 2022, Boeing delivered three 777-300ER aircraft, leaving only five aircraft in the backlog.
Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024
mba’s Aircraft Ranking model considers numerous factors that affect an aircraft’s market standing on a scale specifically developed for each asset class. These ranking factors are individually weighted and compared against each other to develop mba’s overall ranking score for each aircraft type, which is expressed on a scale of 1.00 to 10.00. The most prevalent aircraft configurations are used in the ranking analysis, which can be further identified in mba’s REDBOOK publication or web-based valuation service. | | |
The 777-300ER benefits from its large order book, scoring high marks for net orders, deliveries, and freighter conversion opportunities. Concerns about the likely future increase in availability, the consequent value volatility, and the large number of parked aircraft bring down the aircraft’s score. The A350-900 scores the highest for large widebodies but is a smaller, new technology aircraft competing more closely with the 787-9 and -10. Tepid acceptance has hindered the A350-1000, which was meant to compete directly with the 777-300ER. The score for the 777-300ER is expected to decline in the near term, and it could be further impacted by availability and active-to-parked ratio depending on how airlines restructure their fleets over the next several months.
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mba anticipates the market for the 777-300ER will continue to soften as production has effectively been completed and international routes remain constrained. mba has seen an approximate 14.0% drop in young aircraft values compared to the 777-300ER’s height in the mid-2010s.
Despite the large number of aircraft expected to come off lease in the next few years, the 777-300ER is a staple in many legacy carriers’ fleets. The aircraft boasts significant fuel-burn advantages over the 747-400 and A340 and is easier to fill than the Airbus A380-800 without the same airport restrictions. After the smaller 777-200ER’s Market Values tumbled in 2015 with little chance of recovery, concerns for the secondary placements of large widebody aircraft began to arise. mba believes the 777-300ER has a place in legacy fleets and expects more operators to extend leases or tap into the secondary market, as North American and European carriers have indicated. However, the timing of full recovery for international long-haul traffic will influence this. Once the successor aircraft enters service, a shortening of the economic life for later vintage aircraft can be expected, as seen with previous technological replacements. However, current production issues with the 787 program and the lengthy delay of the 777X may force operators to hold on to their 777-300ER fleets longer than anticipated, which could help stabilize values in the near term.
With the launch of several 777-300ER converted freighter programs, values for the type may be stabilized by demand for conversion candidates in the mid-2020s and part-out demand to keep the existing fleet flying. The long-term outlook for the 777-300ER depends highly on its largest operator, Emirates. Despite recent cancellations, Emirates still has the largest order for the 777X and may release a large number of 777-300ERs into the market in the mid-to-late 2020s, which may prolong the current soft market for the 777-300ER through the end of the decade.
mba anticipates value volatility in the medium to long term, and though Market Values have substantially softened since the pandemic, they are showing signs of stabilization. Considering the lengthy return for international passenger traffic, mba has made downward adjustments to the Base and Residual Value changes as the aircraft may run out of time to see full recovery. However, it remains to be seen how easily parked aircraft will be absorbed into the market once international passenger traffic recovers fully and how many will be acquired for freighter operations, which may help buoy Market Values in the mid-term.
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787-10
The 787-10 is the largest variant of the 787 family and the last of the family to be introduced to the market. The aircraft was designed to replace the 777-200, A340, and A330 aircraft and later to compete with the A350-900 and, in some cases, the A330-900neo. The first aircraft was delivered to launch-customer Singapore Airlines in March 2018. With the addition of nine fuselage plugs, the 787-10 is five and a half meters longer than the 787-9 and can carry 330 passengers in a typical two-class configuration, which is 40 more seats than the 787-9. The 787-10 also has a larger cargo capacity, carrying two more pallets than the 787-9. However, with the same 560,000-lb MTOW as the 787-9, the 787-10 trades additional capacity for a shorter range of 6,430 NM compared to the 7,635 NM range of the 787-9. Like other members of the 787 family, the 787-10 is powered by the General Electric (GE) GEnx-1B series engines or Rolls-Royce (RR) Trent 1000 family engines.
Positives
| + | Similar to the smaller variants, the 787-10 offers class-leading technology, including a single composite-material fuselage and wings and health-monitoring systems. |
| + | As the latest iteration of the 787 family, the aircraft incorporates many of the improvements made on the 787 family from the start of production. |
| + | The composite fuselage is expected to mitigate the maintenance costs and corrosion issues over the lifespan of the aircraft. |
| + | Trent 1000 TEN engines fitted on all 787-10 aircraft resolve many of the reliability issues that affected the rest of the Rolls-Royce-powered 787s built prior to 2019. |
Neutral
| o | Dual-source engines from GE and RR could impact residual values should one engine type become more favorable as the program matures. |
Negatives
| − | Small order book after launch put into question the market acceptance of the type. |
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As of April 2024, there are 98 active Boeing 787-10 aircraft with nine operators. The relatively small order book and potentially small operator base has generated some concern regarding the market’s acceptance of the aircraft and long-term value prospects. In total, there are 168 787-10s remaining undelivered and the orderbook for the type remains strong.
Net Orders | 266 |
Backlog | 168 |
Delivered | 98 |
Destroyed/Retired | 0 |
Not in Service/Long-Term Storage | 0 |
Active Aircraft | 98 |
Number of Active Operators | 9 |
Average Fleet Age (Yrs) | 3.8 |
Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024
| Q | In March 2024, Japanese carrier ANA announced that it would be deploying the first two if its 787-10s on Japanese domestic routes in a high-density configuration. (aerotime) |
| Q | In October 2023, Boeing announced that it had delivered its 1,000th dreamliner, a 787-10 to Singapore Airlines. (Simple Flying) |
| Q | In June 2023, British Airways took delivery of its seventh 787-10. (Simple Flying) |
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United Airlines and Singapore Airlines are the largest operators for the 787-10, with 21 aircraft each, or 21.6% of the fleet. EVA Air follows with 11 active 787-10s, or 11.3% of the total fleet. Etihad Airways is expected to eventually become the largest operator with a total order book of 30 aircraft, 20 still undelivered. The leasing community has been slow to accept the aircraft, with only Air Lease Corporation and GECAS ordering the type, compared to the wider lessor exposure the 787-8 and 787-9 command. The 787-10’s slow uptake from lessors is likely linked to the limited operator distribution; although, the aircraft could see its lessor exposure broaden as the program matures and more aircraft enter the sale-leaseback market.
Five Largest 787-10 Operators
Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 46 of 58 | |
Current Fleet by Engine Type
There are two engine options for the 787-10: the Trent 1000 by RR and the GEnx-1B by GE. Like the rest of the 787 fleet, the GEnx currently holds the majority of the engine orders for the 787-10. The Trent 1000 TENs, with a core taken from the A350’s XWB engines, are fundamentally different engines from the issue-plagued Package B and C Trent 1000s fitted on the 787 fleet pre-2018. The GEnx-1B appears to be the preferred engine type on the aircraft, as based on the current order book, at least 80.5% of the fleet will be powered by GEnx-1B engines. As of April 2024, 67.3% of the delivered fleet is GEnx-1B-powered, with 88.1% of the remaining backlog powered by the GEnx-1B. The Trent 1000 was selected for 8.3% of the remaining backlog, with six orders still undecided.
787-10 Backlog by Engine Type | | 787-10 Deliveries by Engine Type |
| | |
| | |
Source: mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024
Engine SFC |
GEnx-1B | 0.512 (at cruise) |
(lb/h/lb) |
Trent 1000 | 0.506 (at cruise) |
(lb/h/lb) |
Current Fleet by Region
With two of the four largest operators in the region, Asia is home to the largest fleet of 787-10 aircraft accounting for 42.9% of the active fleet. North America hosts the second largest operating fleet with 21.4% of the fleet, followed closely by the Middle East and Europe. This distribution should diversify as more aircraft are delivered, although Asia currently holds nearly one third of the undelivered orders. | | Source: Boeing, mba REDBOOK FLEET, April 2024 |
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mba’s Aircraft Ranking model takes into account numerous factors that affect an aircraft’s market standing on a scale specifically developed for each asset class. These ranking factors are individually weighted and compared against each other to develop mba’s overall ranking score for each aircraft type, which is expressed on a scale of 1.00 to 10.00. The most prevalent aircraft configurations are used in the ranking analysis, which can be further identified in mba’s REDBOOK publication or web-based valuation service. | | |
The 787-10 scores poorly compared to a majority of its competitors mainly because of its small orderbook and narrow customer base. The 787-10 is also negatively impacted by its limited range when compared to other widebody aircraft such as the A350-900; however, the new aircraft benefits from being one of the most technologically advanced commercial aircraft of its time and from the fleet’s young age and the fact that all delivered aircraft are in active service.
At this time, it is too early to determine the long-term success for the 787-10. There is some concern about the size of the orderbook, as only 266 aircraft have been ordered, net of cancellations, and its orderbook has been slow to grow. Despite its slow uptake, the 787-10 is a capable aircraft that offers a compelling cost-per-seat advantage over its competitors. Orders for the 787-10 may increase, especially for shorter trunk routes or transatlantic routes served by older 767s.
787-10 Market Values have recovered from pandemic lows and are now trading at base as international traffic demand continues to increase. The aircraft also benefits from an operator base made up mostly of flag and legacy carriers with strong credits and government support that were able to weather the pandemic. In addition, being a clean-sheet design, the aircraft’s economic benefits will likely result in operators holding onto the type and continuing to take deliveries while retiring older widebody aircraft. mba expects that Market Values will remain stable in the near team and continue to trade near base.
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IV. Definitions
Extended Desktop Appraisal
An Extended Desktop Appraisal is one that is characterized by the absence of any on-site inspection of the aircraft or its maintenance records, but it does include consideration of maintenance status information that is provided to the appraiser from the client, aircraft operator, or in the case of a second opinion, possibly from another appraiser’s report. An Extended Desktop Appraisal would normally provide a value that includes adjustments from the mid-time, mid-life baseline to account for the actual maintenance status of the aircraft. (ISTAT Handbook)
Base Value
ISTAT defines Base Values as the Appraiser’s opinion of the value of an aircraft in a stable market with a reasonable balance of supply and demand. The Base Value of a tangible asset typically assumes its physical condition is average for an asset of its type and age, and its maintenance status is as described.
Base Value assumes that the value is for an unencumbered single-unit transaction valued for the asset’s highest and best use (as defined by the Appraiser), that the parties to the potential sale would be willing, able, prudent and knowledgeable, and under no unusual pressure for a prompt sale, and that the transaction would be negotiated in an open and unrestricted market on an arm’s-length basis, for cash or equivalent consideration, and given an adequate amount of time for effective exposure to prospective buyers. As Base Value pertains to a somewhat idealized market it will often not be the same as Market Value. As a starting point, the Base Value of a tangible asset typically assumes its maintenance status is at Half-life/Half-time.
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V. Methodology
In developing the values of the Subject Aircraft, mba did not inspect the Subject Aircraft or the records and documentation associated with the Subject Aircraft but relied on partial information supplied by the Client. This information was not independently verified by mba. Therefore, mba used certain assumptions that are generally accepted industry practice to calculate the value of aircraft when more detailed information is not available.
The principal assumptions for the Subject Aircraft are as follows:
| 1. | The aircraft is in good overall condition. |
| 2. | The overhaul status of the airframe, engines, landing gear, and other major components are the equivalent of mid-time/mid-life, or new, unless otherwise stated. |
| 3. | The historical maintenance documentation has been maintained to acceptable international standards. |
| 4. | The specifications of the aircraft are those most common for an aircraft of its type and vintage. |
| 5. | The aircraft is in a standard airline configuration. |
| 6. | The aircraft is current as to all Airworthiness Directives. |
| 7. | Its modification status is comparable to that most common for an aircraft of its type and vintage. |
| 8. | Its utilization is comparable to industry averages. |
| 9. | There is no history of accident or incident damage. |
| 10. | In the case of the Base and Market Value, no accounting is made for lease revenues, obligations, or terms of ownership unless otherwise specified. |
| 11. | Young aircraft have inherent maintenance included in their values and are, therefore, not maintenance adjusted. |
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Maintenance Assumptions
Utilization
The maintenance status of the airframe and engines for the Subject Aircraft were provided by the Client and are as of May 1, 2024. mba forwarded the data to the date of valuation, June 1, 2024, based on each Subject Aircraft’s average daily utilization. The Subject Aircraft were presumed to be active and accumulating flight hours and cycles, apart from MSNs 37200 and 42202, which did not accumulate flight hours and cycles between the date of data and the date of valuation. For engines with an on–wing and active status, total flight hours and cycles were forwarded to June 1, 2024.
Maintenance Intervals
Airframe and landing gear check and overhaul intervals are based on operator-approved intervals that follow MSG-3 guidelines and are limited by either calendar months, flight hours, or flight cycles. Engine overhaul intervals are based on mba’s proprietary database, specific to aircraft and engine types, which considers data provided by the OEM and industry average time between overhauls as received from MROs, lessors, and operators. Engine overhaul intervals are adjusted based on the historical utilization and operator region of the aircraft.
Maintenance Cost
mba’s maintenance costs are based on internal data specific to aircraft and engine type as well as the operating environment. Airframe checks, landing gear overhauls, and engine overhaul costs are derived from OEM-published costs and average costs received from MROs, airlines, industry publications, and mba’s Asset Management team. LLP replacement costs are based on OEM-published costs as is standard for current, in-production engines.
Portfolio-Specific Assumptions
The following ESNs did not have flight hours or cycles forwarded from the date of data to the date of valuation.
• | 658505 |
• | 804292 |
• | 960715 |
• | 960716 |
• | 962312 |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 51 of 58 | |
VI. Valuation
Aircraft Portfolio |
No. | Aircraft Type | Serial Number | Registration | Manufacture Date | Engine Type | ESN 1 | ESN 2 | Operator |
1 | 737 MAX 8 | 44309 | N27290 | Jun-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 603741 | 603756 | United Airlines |
2 | 737 MAX 8 | 64609 | N17312 | Jul-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 602765 | 602821 | United Airlines |
3 | 737 MAX 8 | 64608 | N37307 | Aug-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 602846 | 602843 | United Airlines |
4 | 737 MAX 8 | 67604 | N37324 | Dec-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 603967 | 60B013 | United Airlines |
5 | 737 MAX 8 | 67588 | N47330 | Dec-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 60A132 | 60A488 | United Airlines |
6 | 737 MAX 9 | 67184 | N37560 | May-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 603421 | 60A463 | United Airlines |
7 | 737 MAX 9 | 67590 | N37561 | May-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 603202 | 603353 | United Airlines |
8 | 737 MAX 9 | 67591 | N37562 | Jun-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 603227 | 603861 | United Airlines |
9 | 737 MAX 9 | 67187 | N37563 | Jun-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 60B229 | 60B235 | United Airlines |
10 | 737 MAX 9 | 67186 | N17565 | Jun-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 60B287 | 60B292 | United Airlines |
11 | 737 MAX 9 | 67188 | N17564 | Jun-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 603288 | 603568 | United Airlines |
12 | 737 MAX 9 | 67603 | N77573 | Aug-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 60A367 | 603602 | United Airlines |
13 | 737 MAX 9 | 67193 | N77571 | Aug-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 60B352 | 60B375 | United Airlines |
14 | 737 MAX 9 | 67609 | N77575 | Aug-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 603120 | 60A674 | United Airlines |
15 | 737 MAX 9 | 67610 | N77576 | Sep-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 60B443 | 60B473 | United Airlines |
16 | 737 MAX 9 | 67615 | N37577 | Sep-23 | LEAP-1B28 | 60B472 | 60B475 | United Airlines |
17 | 737-800 | 31663 | N76528 | Oct-10 | CFM56-7B26 | 805240 | 804292 | United Airlines |
18 | 737-800 | 31652 | N76529 | Dec-10 | CFM56-7B26 | 804586 | 805596 | United Airlines |
19 | 737-800 | 39998 | N77530 | Mar-11 | CFM56-7B26 | 804678 | 804677 | United Airlines |
20 | 737-800 | 39999 | N87531 | Mar-11 | CFM56-7B26 | 804509 | 804545 | United Airlines |
21 | 737-900ER | 31655 | N38443 | Dec-10 | CFM56-7B26 | 804398 | 804401 | United Airlines |
22 | 737-900ER | 31643 | N36444 | Dec-10 | CFM56-7B26 | 804446 | 804447 | United Airlines |
23 | 737-900ER | 40000 | N73445 | Apr-11 | CFM56-7B26 | 804866 | 804869 | United Airlines |
24 | 737-900ER | 31661 | N38446 | Jan-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 960530 | 960540 | United Airlines |
25 | 737-900ER | 31650 | N36447 | Feb-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 960603 | 960604 | United Airlines |
26 | 737-900ER | 40003 | N78448 | Mar-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 960637 | 960645 | United Airlines |
27 | 737-900ER | 31651 | N81449 | Mar-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 960715 | 960716 | United Airlines |
28 | 737-900ER | 40004 | N39450 | Apr-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 960735 | 961746 | United Airlines |
29 | 737-900ER | 31646 | N38451 | Apr-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 960742 | 961747 | United Airlines |
30 | 737-900ER | 40005 | N68452 | May-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 960831 | 960839 | United Airlines |
31 | 737-900ER | 41742 | N68453 | May-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 960869 | 960871 | United Airlines |
32 | 737-900ER | 31640 | N38454 | Jun-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 960904 | 961908 | United Airlines |
33 | 737-900ER | 41743 | N34455 | Jun-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 960936 | 960943 | United Airlines |
34 | 737-900ER | 37205 | N37456 | Sep-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 962201 | 963202 | United Airlines |
35 | 737-900ER | 41744 | N28457 | Sep-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 962231 | 962234 | United Airlines |
36 | 737-900ER | 37199 | N38458 | Sep-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 962248 | 962252 | United Airlines |
37 | 737-900ER | 37206 | N38459 | Oct-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 962312 | 962318 | United Airlines |
38 | 737-900ER | 37200 | N34460 | Nov-12 | CFM56-7B26 | 962316 | 962330 | United Airlines |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 52 of 58 | |
Aircraft Portfolio |
No. | Aircraft Type | Serial Number | Registration | Manufacture Date | Engine Type | ESN 1 | ESN 2 | Operator |
39 | 737-900ER | 42175 | N68811 | Jan-14 | CFM56-7B26 | 658490 | 658505 | United Airlines |
40 | 737-900ER | 42201 | N61882 | May-15 | CFM56-7B26 | 862112 | 862113 | United Airlines |
41 | 737-900ER | 42202 | N62883 | Jun-15 | CFM56-7B26 | 862193 | 862210 | United Airlines |
42 | 777-300ER | 66591 | N2251U | Jan-20 | GE90-115B | 901497 | 901498 | United Airlines |
43 | 777-300ER | 66592 | N2352U | Mar-20 | GE90-115B | 901507 | 901508 | United Airlines |
44 | 787-10 | 66988 | N14019 | Nov-22 | GEnx-1B70 | 958735 | 958792 | United Airlines |
45 | 787-10 | 66987 | N13018 | Nov-22 | GEnx-1B70 | 958798 | 958799 | United Airlines |
46 | 787-10 | 66989 | N12020 | Dec-22 | GEnx-1B70 | 958806 | 958807 | United Airlines |
47 | 787-10 | 66990 | N12021 | Dec-22 | GEnx-1B70 | 958809 | 958810 | United Airlines |
48 | 787-10 | 66985 | N14016 | Dec-22 | GEnx-1B70 | 958780 | 958782 | United Airlines |
Aircraft Portfolio Valuations |
(US$ Million) |
No. | Aircraft Type | Serial Number | Engine Adj. | CBV | Mx. Adj. | Mx. Adj. BV |
1 | 737 MAX 8 | 44309 | $0.48 | $51.22 | $0.00 | $51.22 |
2 | 737 MAX 8 | 64609 | $0.48 | $51.53 | $0.00 | $51.53 |
3 | 737 MAX 8 | 64608 | $0.48 | $51.83 | $0.00 | $51.83 |
4 | 737 MAX 8 | 67604 | $0.48 | $53.04 | $0.00 | $53.04 |
5 | 737 MAX 8 | 67588 | $0.48 | $53.04 | $0.00 | $53.04 |
6 | 737 MAX 9 | 67184 | $0.48 | $52.00 | $0.00 | $52.00 |
7 | 737 MAX 9 | 67590 | $0.48 | $52.00 | $0.00 | $52.00 |
8 | 737 MAX 9 | 67591 | $0.48 | $52.29 | $0.00 | $52.29 |
9 | 737 MAX 9 | 67187 | $0.48 | $52.29 | $0.00 | $52.29 |
10 | 737 MAX 9 | 67186 | $0.48 | $52.29 | $0.00 | $52.29 |
11 | 737 MAX 9 | 67188 | $0.48 | $52.29 | $0.00 | $52.29 |
12 | 737 MAX 9 | 67603 | $0.48 | $52.87 | $0.00 | $52.87 |
13 | 737 MAX 9 | 67193 | $0.48 | $52.87 | $0.00 | $52.87 |
14 | 737 MAX 9 | 67609 | $0.48 | $52.87 | $0.00 | $52.87 |
15 | 737 MAX 9 | 67610 | $0.48 | $53.16 | $0.00 | $53.16 |
16 | 737 MAX 9 | 67615 | $0.48 | $53.16 | $0.00 | $53.16 |
17 | 737-800 | 31663 | ($0.20) | $19.45 | ($4.77) | $14.68 |
18 | 737-800 | 31652 | ($0.20) | $19.66 | ($5.44) | $14.22 |
19 | 737-800 | 39998 | ($0.20) | $19.98 | $6.17 | $26.15 |
20 | 737-800 | 39999 | ($0.20) | $19.98 | ($1.29) | $18.69 |
21 | 737-900ER | 31655 | ($0.40) | $19.38 | ($5.08) | $14.30 |
22 | 737-900ER | 31643 | ($0.40) | $19.38 | ($5.29) | $14.09 |
23 | 737-900ER | 40000 | ($0.40) | $19.83 | ($4.77) | $15.06 |
24 | 737-900ER | 31661 | ($0.40) | $20.85 | ($4.23) | $16.62 |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 53 of 58 | |
Aircraft Portfolio Valuations |
(US$ Million) |
No. | Aircraft Type | Serial Number | Engine Adj. | CBV | Mx. Adj. | Mx. Adj. BV |
25 | 737-900ER | 31650 | ($0.40) | $20.97 | ($3.01) | $17.96 |
26 | 737-900ER | 40003 | ($0.40) | $21.09 | ($4.62) | $16.47 |
27 | 737-900ER | 31651 | ($0.40) | $21.09 | ($2.55) | $18.54 |
28 | 737-900ER | 40004 | ($0.40) | $21.22 | $1.89 | $23.11 |
29 | 737-900ER | 31646 | ($0.40) | $21.22 | ($4.23) | $16.99 |
30 | 737-900ER | 40005 | ($0.40) | $21.34 | ($3.23) | $18.11 |
31 | 737-900ER | 41742 | ($0.40) | $21.34 | ($3.61) | $17.73 |
32 | 737-900ER | 31640 | ($0.40) | $21.46 | ($3.52) | $17.94 |
33 | 737-900ER | 41743 | ($0.40) | $21.46 | ($4.07) | $17.39 |
34 | 737-900ER | 37205 | ($0.40) | $21.82 | ($5.94) | $15.88 |
35 | 737-900ER | 41744 | ($0.40) | $21.82 | ($6.08) | $15.74 |
36 | 737-900ER | 37199 | ($0.40) | $21.82 | ($5.93) | $15.89 |
37 | 737-900ER | 37206 | ($0.40) | $21.95 | ($5.84) | $16.11 |
38 | 737-900ER | 37200 | ($0.40) | $22.07 | ($5.22) | $16.85 |
39 | 737-900ER | 42175 | ($0.40) | $23.86 | ($3.64) | $20.22 |
40 | 737-900ER | 42201 | ($0.40) | $26.11 | ($2.54) | $23.57 |
41 | 737-900ER | 42202 | ($0.40) | $26.26 | ($1.86) | $24.40 |
42 | 777-300ER | 66591 | $0.00 | $96.36 | $0.00 | $96.36 |
43 | 777-300ER | 66592 | $0.00 | $97.86 | $0.00 | $97.86 |
44 | 787-10 | 66988 | $0.00 | $139.23 | $0.00 | $139.23 |
45 | 787-10 | 66987 | $0.00 | $139.23 | $0.00 | $139.23 |
46 | 787-10 | 66989 | $0.00 | $140.11 | $0.00 | $140.11 |
47 | 787-10 | 66990 | $0.00 | $140.11 | $0.00 | $140.11 |
48 | 787-10 | 66985 | $0.00 | $140.11 | $0.00 | $140.11 |
Total | ($1.52) | $2,267.17 | ($88.70) | $2,178.47 |
Legend for Portfolio Valuation:
Engine Adj. - | Adjustment for Engine Type |
CBV - | Current Base Value |
Mx. Adj. - | Maintenance Adjustment |
Mx. Adj. BV - | Maintenance-Adjusted Base Value |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 54 of 58 | |
Aircraft Maintenance Adjustments |
(US$ Million) |
No. | Aircraft Type | Serial Number | Int. MX. Adj. | Hvy. MX. I Adj. | Hvy. MX. II Adj. | LG Adj. | Engine 1 LLP Adj. | Engine 1 PR Adj. | Engine 2 LLP Adj. | Engine 2 PR Adj. | Total MX. Adj. |
1 | 737 MAX 8 | 44309 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
2 | 737 MAX 8 | 64609 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
3 | 737 MAX 8 | 64608 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
4 | 737 MAX 8 | 67604 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
5 | 737 MAX 8 | 67588 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
6 | 737 MAX 9 | 67184 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
7 | 737 MAX 9 | 67590 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
8 | 737 MAX 9 | 67591 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
9 | 737 MAX 9 | 67187 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
10 | 737 MAX 9 | 67186 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
11 | 737 MAX 9 | 67188 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
12 | 737 MAX 9 | 67603 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
13 | 737 MAX 9 | 67193 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
14 | 737 MAX 9 | 67609 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
15 | 737 MAX 9 | 67610 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
16 | 737 MAX 9 | 67615 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
17 | 737-800 | 31663 | $0.09 | $0.21 | $0.21 | $0.18 | ($0.58) | ($2.11) | ($0.66) | ($2.11) | ($4.77) |
18 | 737-800 | 31652 | $0.03 | $0.16 | $0.19 | $0.16 | ($0.83) | ($2.15) | ($0.85) | ($2.15) | ($5.44) |
19 | 737-800 | 39998 | $0.05 | $0.17 | $0.19 | $0.17 | $0.98 | $1.67 | $1.01 | $1.93 | $6.17 |
20 | 737-800 | 39999 | $0.05 | $0.18 | $0.19 | $0.17 | $0.40 | $0.58 | ($0.87) | ($1.99) | ($1.29) |
21 | 737-900ER | 31655 | $0.02 | $0.20 | $0.28 | $0.18 | ($0.84) | ($2.15) | ($0.62) | ($2.15) | ($5.08) |
22 | 737-900ER | 31643 | $0.02 | $0.20 | $0.28 | $0.17 | ($0.83) | ($2.15) | ($0.83) | ($2.15) | ($5.29) |
23 | 737-900ER | 40000 | $0.06 | $0.24 | $0.30 | $0.16 | ($0.64) | ($1.99) | ($0.91) | ($1.99) | ($4.77) |
24 | 737-900ER | 31661 | $0.11 | $0.29 | $0.32 | $0.23 | ($0.39) | ($2.11) | ($0.57) | ($2.11) | ($4.23) |
25 | 737-900ER | 31650 | $0.13 | $0.32 | $0.34 | $0.22 | ($0.60) | ($2.11) | ($0.05) | ($1.26) | ($3.01) |
26 | 737-900ER | 40003 | $0.12 | $0.31 | $0.33 | $0.22 | ($0.67) | ($2.11) | ($0.71) | ($2.11) | ($4.62) |
27 | 737-900ER | 31651 | $0.11 | $0.30 | $0.33 | $0.25 | ($0.46) | ($2.11) | $1.14 | ($2.11) | ($2.55) |
28 | 737-900ER | 40004 | $0.14 | $0.33 | $0.34 | $0.26 | $1.31 | $1.91 | ($0.45) | ($1.95) | $1.89 |
29 | 737-900ER | 31646 | $0.14 | $0.34 | $0.35 | $0.26 | ($0.60) | ($2.11) | ($0.50) | ($2.11) | ($4.23) |
30 | 737-900ER | 40005 | $0.14 | $0.33 | $0.35 | $0.23 | $0.12 | ($1.87) | ($0.42) | ($2.11) | ($3.23) |
31 | 737-900ER | 41742 | $0.13 | $0.32 | $0.34 | $0.26 | $0.03 | ($2.11) | ($0.47) | ($2.11) | ($3.61) |
32 | 737-900ER | 31640 | $0.15 | $0.34 | $0.35 | $0.27 | $0.12 | ($2.11) | ($0.53) | ($2.11) | ($3.52) |
33 | 737-900ER | 41743 | $0.15 | $0.34 | $0.35 | $0.27 | ($0.43) | ($2.11) | ($0.53) | ($2.11) | ($4.07) |
34 | 737-900ER | 37205 | ($0.14) | ($0.33) | ($0.34) | ($0.27) | ($0.40) | ($2.11) | ($0.24) | ($2.11) | ($5.94) |
35 | 737-900ER | 41744 | ($0.12) | ($0.33) | ($0.34) | ($0.27) | ($0.26) | ($2.11) | ($0.54) | ($2.11) | ($6.08) |
36 | 737-900ER | 37199 | ($0.13) | ($0.33) | ($0.34) | ($0.27) | ($0.43) | ($2.11) | ($0.21) | ($2.11) | ($5.93) |
37 | 737-900ER | 37206 | ($0.12) | ($0.31) | ($0.33) | ($0.27) | ($0.49) | ($2.11) | ($0.10) | ($2.11) | ($5.84) |
38 | 737-900ER | 37200 | ($0.13) | ($0.36) | ($0.33) | ($0.27) | $0.12 | ($1.91) | ($0.23) | ($2.11) | ($5.22) |
39 | 737-900ER | 42175 | $0.03 | $0.21 | $0.28 | ($0.18) | $0.01 | ($1.83) | ($0.05) | ($2.11) | ($3.64) |
40 | 737-900ER | 42201 | ($0.16) | $0.01 | $0.18 | ($0.11) | $0.27 | ($1.50) | $0.27 | ($1.50) | ($2.54) |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 55 of 58 | |
Aircraft Maintenance Adjustments |
(US$ Million) |
No. | Aircraft Type | Serial Number | Int. MX. Adj. | Hvy. MX. I Adj. | Hvy. MX. II Adj. | LG Adj. | Engine 1 LLP Adj. | Engine 1 PR Adj. | Engine 2 LLP Adj. | Engine 2 PR Adj. | Total MX. Adj. |
41 | 737-900ER | 42202 | ($0.15) | $0.01 | $0.19 | ($0.12) | $0.41 | ($1.29) | $0.40 | ($1.31) | ($1.86) |
42 | 777-300ER | 66591 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
43 | 777-300ER | 66592 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
44 | 787-10 | 66988 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
45 | 787-10 | 66987 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
46 | 787-10 | 66989 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
47 | 787-10 | 66990 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
48 | 787-10 | 66985 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total | | $0.72 | $3.15 | $4.01 | $1.90 | ($4.68) | ($40.11) | ($7.52) | ($46.17) | ($88.70) |
| Legend for Maintenance Adj. | |
| Int. MX. Adj. - | Intermediate Check or C Check Adjustment |
| Hvy. MX. I Adj. - | Heavy Check Adjustment |
| Hvy. MX. II Adj. - | Heavy Check Adjustment |
| LG Adj. - | Landing Gear Overhaul Adjustment |
| Engine LLP Adj. - | Engine Life-Limited Part Adjustment |
| Engine PR Adj. - | Engine Performance Restoration Adjustment |
Aircraft Maintenance Status Percentage Remaining |
No. | Aircraft Type | Serial Number | Int. MX. Adj. | Hvy. MX. I Adj. | Hvy. MX. II Adj. | LG Adj. | Engine 1 LLP Adj. | Engine 1 PR Adj. | Engine 2 LLP Adj. | Engine 2 PR Adj. |
1 | 737 MAX 8 | 44309 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
2 | 737 MAX 8 | 64609 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
3 | 737 MAX 8 | 64608 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
4 | 737 MAX 8 | 67604 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
5 | 737 MAX 8 | 67588 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
6 | 737 MAX 9 | 67184 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
7 | 737 MAX 9 | 67590 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
8 | 737 MAX 9 | 67591 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
9 | 737 MAX 9 | 67187 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
10 | 737 MAX 9 | 67186 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
11 | 737 MAX 9 | 67188 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
12 | 737 MAX 9 | 67603 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
13 | 737 MAX 9 | 67193 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
14 | 737 MAX 9 | 67609 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
15 | 737 MAX 9 | 67610 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
16 | 737 MAX 9 | 67615 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
17 | 737-800 | 31663 | 79.3% | 89.6% | 94.8% | 89.5% | 40.8% | 0.0% | 39.6% | 0.0% |
18 | 737-800 | 31652 | 58.8% | 79.4% | 89.7% | 84.9% | 36.9% | 0.0% | 36.6% | 0.0% |
19 | 737-800 | 39998 | 64.2% | 82.1% | 91.1% | 86.4% | 65.4% | 91.9% | 65.9% | 98.6% |
20 | 737-800 | 39999 | 65.9% | 83.0% | 91.5% | 87.6% | 56.3% | 64.7% | 36.3% | 0.0% |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 56 of 58 | |
Aircraft Maintenance Status Percentage Remaining |
No. | Aircraft Type | Serial Number | Int. MX. Adj. | Hvy. MX. I Adj. | Hvy. MX. II Adj. | LG Adj. | Engine 1 LLP Adj. | Engine 1 PR Adj. | Engine 2 LLP Adj. | Engine 2 PR Adj. |
21 | 737-900ER | 31655 | 54.8% | 77.4% | 88.7% | 82.9% | 36.8% | 0.0% | 40.3% | 0.0% |
22 | 737-900ER | 31643 | 55.4% | 77.7% | 88.9% | 82.2% | 37.0% | 0.0% | 37.0% | 0.0% |
23 | 737-900ER | 40000 | 67.7% | 83.8% | 91.9% | 80.2% | 39.9% | 0.0% | 35.8% | 0.0% |
24 | 737-900ER | 31661 | 82.3% | 91.1% | 95.6% | 93.0% | 43.8% | 0.0% | 41.1% | 0.0% |
25 | 737-900ER | 31650 | 91.1% | 95.5% | 97.8% | 90.2% | 40.6% | 0.0% | 49.3% | 20.1% |
26 | 737-900ER | 40003 | 85.8% | 92.9% | 96.5% | 90.5% | 39.4% | 0.0% | 38.9% | 0.0% |
27 | 737-900ER | 31651 | 84.6% | 92.3% | 96.1% | 97.0% | 42.8% | 0.0% | 67.9% | 0.0% |
28 | 737-900ER | 40004 | 92.2% | 96.1% | 98.1% | 97.6% | 70.6% | 98.8% | 42.9% | 0.0% |
29 | 737-900ER | 31646 | 94.2% | 97.1% | 98.6% | 97.4% | 40.6% | 0.0% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
30 | 737-900ER | 40005 | 93.7% | 96.8% | 98.4% | 92.6% | 51.8% | 5.8% | 43.4% | 0.0% |
31 | 737-900ER | 41742 | 90.8% | 95.4% | 97.7% | 98.8% | 50.4% | 0.0% | 42.6% | 0.0% |
32 | 737-900ER | 31640 | 96.7% | 98.4% | 99.2% | 99.1% | 51.8% | 0.0% | 41.7% | 0.0% |
33 | 737-900ER | 41743 | 95.5% | 97.8% | 98.9% | 99.7% | 43.2% | 0.0% | 41.7% | 0.0% |
34 | 737-900ER | 37205 | 6.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 43.7% | 0.0% | 46.3% | 0.0% |
35 | 737-900ER | 41744 | 13.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 46.0% | 0.0% | 41.5% | 0.0% |
36 | 737-900ER | 37199 | 9.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 43.2% | 0.0% | 46.7% | 0.0% |
37 | 737-900ER | 37206 | 13.5% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 42.2% | 0.0% | 48.5% | 0.0% |
38 | 737-900ER | 37200 | 11.0% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 51.8% | 4.7% | 46.4% | 0.0% |
39 | 737-900ER | 42175 | 58.4% | 79.2% | 89.6% | 16.2% | 50.2% | 6.8% | 49.2% | 0.0% |
40 | 737-900ER | 42201 | 1.7% | 50.9% | 75.4% | 29.8% | 54.2% | 14.6% | 54.2% | 14.6% |
41 | 737-900ER | 42202 | 3.8% | 51.9% | 76.0% | 27.5% | 56.4% | 19.4% | 56.3% | 19.0% |
42 | 777-300ER | 66591 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
43 | 777-300ER | 66592 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
44 | 787-10 | 66988 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
45 | 787-10 | 66987 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
46 | 787-10 | 66989 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
47 | 787-10 | 66990 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
48 | 787-10 | 66985 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 57 of 58 | |
VII. Covenants
This Report has been prepared for the exclusive use of United Airlines, Inc., and shall not be provided to other parties by mba without the express consent of United Airlines, Inc. mba certifies that this report has been independently prepared and that it fully and accurately reflects mba’s and the signatory’s opinion of the values of the Subject Aircraft as requested. mba further certifies that it does not have and does not expect to have any financial or other interest in the Subject Aircraft. Neither mba nor the signatory has provided the OEMs of the airframe or engines with pro bono or paid consulting or advice in the design or development of the assets valued herein.
This Report represents the opinion of mba of the values of the Subject Aircraft as requested and is intended to be advisory only. Therefore, mba assumes no responsibility or legal liability for any actions taken or not taken by United Airlines, Inc., or any other party with regard to the Subject Aircraft. By accepting this Report, all parties agree that mba shall bear no such responsibility or legal liability.
| PREPARED BY: |
| |
| |
| Grant Holve |
| Analyst – Asset Valuations |
| mba Aviation |
July 2, 2024 | |
| REVIEWED BY: |
| |
| |
| Anna Kopinski |
| Director – Asset Valuations |
| mba Aviation |
| ISTAT Certified Appraiser |
United Airlines, Inc. Job File #24151 Page 58 of 58 | |