In addition, in the wake of the financial disruptions from 2008 and onwards, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (the “Basel Committee”) has revised the Basel regime to provide for new, stricter regulations with regard to capital adequacy and liquidity coverage. These stricter regulations (many of which have already come into force, while others are expected to become effective in the near future) will mean that, in general, financial institutions, including SEK, will need to maintain relatively more own funds (capital base) in relation to their risk-weighted assets as well as better matched borrowing in relation to their obligations. Furthermore, stricter rules on which assets can be defined as liquidity reserves as well as stricter requirements on the clearing of derivatives may also affect international capital markets.
In December 2017, the Basel Committee introduced final revisions to the Basel III capital framework to reduce the variability of risk-weighted assets within the banking system (the “2017 Revisions”). In 2019, additional revisions were made by the Basel Committee to the CVA framework. In October, 2021 the EU published proposals to CRR and CRD (CRR III and CRD VI), with the purpose to implement the Basel revisions into EU law. The EU proposal follows the defined requirements of the Basel standards, and while SEK expects a net positive impact of the new requirements on the Company’s risk exposure amount, uncertainty remains until the new regulations have been finalized. Under the EU proposal, the CRD VI needs to be implemented into Swedish national legislation prior to January 1, 2025 before the new requirements become applicable for SEK, while the CRR III will become applicable for SEK as of January 1, 2025. For more information, see Item 4 “Information on the Group and the Parent Company—B. Business Overview—Swedish Government Supervision—Capital adequacy regulations” below.
European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR), a regulation regarding over-the-counter (“OTC”) derivatives, central counterparties and trade repositories, came into effect on August 16, 2012. Since then, various parts of the regulation have been introduced. One of the major revisions relates to risk mitigating techniques, where new bilateral margin requirements are imposed on OTC-derivatives. The application date for the new initial margin requirements for OTC-derivatives was postponed from September, 2021 until September, 2022. Under the new requirements, SEK may be required to post additional collateral in relation to its OTC derivative transactions, which may entail increased costs impacting SEK’s business, results of operations and financial condition.
SEK may experience negative changes in the value of its assets or liabilities and may incur other losses related to volatile and illiquid market conditions.
Increased market volatility, illiquid market conditions and disruptions in the credit markets, including those observed during spring of 2020, make it difficult to value SEK’s assets and liabilities during certain periods. In particular, SEK is exposed to changes in the fair value of certain assets of liabilities due to unrealized gains and losses (e.g. in the form of changes in currency basis spread). Such changes in fair value can have a negative impact on SEK’s results as reported under IFRS.
Subsequent valuations, in light of factors then prevailing, may result in significant changes in the value of SEK’s assets or liabilities in future periods. Furthermore, at the time of any sale of any such assets, the prices SEK ultimately realizes will depend on the demand and liquidity in the market at the time of sale and may be materially lower than such assets’ current fair value. Any of these factors could have an impact on the valuation of SEK’s assets and liabilities, and may therefore have an adverse effect on the Group’s results of operations and financial condition in future periods.
Losses could result from SEK’s derivatives used for hedging, and SEK’s hedging strategies may not be effective.
SEK uses hedging instruments in an attempt to manage interest rate-, currency-, credit-, basis- and other market-related risks. If any of the variety of instruments and strategies the Group uses to hedge exposure to various types of risk is not effective, the Group may incur losses, which may have an adverse effect on the Group’s financial condition and could impair its ability to timely repay or refinance its debts. The majority of SEK’s derivative contracts are OTC derivatives, i.e., derivative contracts that are not transacted on an exchange. These derivatives are entered into under ISDA Master Agreements. If a counterparty were to default on these contracts, the underlying exposure would no longer be effectively hedged, which could result in losses.
In addition, there can be no assurance that the Group will continue to be able to hedge risks related to current or future assets or liabilities in accordance with its current policies in an efficient manner or at all. Disruptions such as market crises and economic recessions, including potentially as a result of a continuation of the global outbreak of COVID-19, may bring a challenge to the availability and effective hedging instruments or strategies. For example, the expected transition away from remaining IBOR exposures may have a different impact on the hedged item and the hedging instrument, which could cause some of SEK’s hedge to become ineffective, resulting in potential losses. An inability to hedge any material risks could result in additional losses, which could have an adverse effect on SEK’s financial condition and its ability to fulfil its obligations.