Fourth Quarter 2023
Earnings Call
Video Update
Max K. Brodén
January 31, 2024
For more information contact:
Investor and Rating Agency Relations
800.235.2667
aflacir@aflac.com
Aflac Worldwide Headquarters
1932 Wynnton Road
Columbus, GA 31999
Preliminary note: Forward-Looking Information and Non-U.S. GAAP Financial Measures
Forward-Looking Information
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a “safe harbor” to encourage companies to provide prospective information, so long as those informational statements are identified as forward-looking and are accompanied by meaningful cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements. The company desires to take advantage of these provisions. This transcript contains cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected herein, and in any other statements made by company officials in communications with the financial community and contained in documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Forward-looking statements are not based on historical information and relate to future operations, strategies, financial results or other developments. Furthermore, forward-looking information is subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties. In particular, statements containing words such as “expect,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “goal,” “objective,” “may,” “should,” “estimate,” “intends,” “projects,” “will,” “assumes,” “potential,” “target,” "outlook" or similar words as well as specific projections of future results, generally qualify as forward-looking. Aflac undertakes no obligation to update such forward-looking statements.
The company cautions readers that the following factors, in addition to other factors mentioned from time to time, could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements:
•difficult conditions in global capital markets and the economy, including inflation
•defaults and credit downgrades of investments
•global fluctuations in interest rates and exposure to significant interest rate risk
•concentration of business in Japan
•limited availability of acceptable yen-denominated investments
•foreign currency fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate
•differing interpretations applied to investment valuations
•significant valuation judgments in determination of expected credit losses recorded on the Company's investments
•decreases in the Company's financial strength or debt ratings
•decline in creditworthiness of other financial institutions
•the Company's ability to attract and retain qualified sales associates, brokers, employees, and distribution partners
•deviations in actual experience from pricing and reserving assumptions
•ability to continue to develop and implement improvements in information technology systems and on successful execution of revenue growth and expense management initiatives
•interruption in telecommunication, information technology and other operational systems, or a failure to maintain the security, confidentiality, integrity or privacy of sensitive data residing on such systems
•subsidiaries' ability to pay dividends to the Parent Company
•inherent limitations to risk management policies and procedures
•operational risks of third-party vendors
•tax rates applicable to the Company may change
•failure to comply with restrictions on policyholder privacy and information security
•extensive regulation and changes in law or regulation by governmental authorities
•competitive environment and ability to anticipate and respond to market trends
•catastrophic events, including, but not limited to, as a result of climate change, epidemics, pandemics, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, war or other military action, major public health issues, terrorism or other acts of violence, and damage incidental to such events
•ability to protect the Aflac brand and the Company's reputation
•ability to effectively manage key executive succession
•changes in accounting standards
•level and outcome of litigation or regulatory inquiries
•allegations or determinations of worker misclassification in the United States
Non-U.S. GAAP Financial Measures and Reconciliations
This document includes references to the Company’s financial performance measures which are not calculated in accordance with United States generally accepted accounting principles (U.S. GAAP) (non-U.S. GAAP). The financial
measures exclude items that the Company believes may obscure the underlying fundamentals and trends in insurance operations because they tend to be driven by general economic conditions and events or related to infrequent activities not directly associated with insurance operations.
Definitions of the Company’s non-U.S. GAAP financial measures and applicable reconciliations to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures are provided in the presentation slides that accompany this transcript.
Due to the size of Aflac Japan, where the functional currency is the Japanese yen, fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate can have a significant effect on reported results. In periods when the yen weakens, translating yen into dollars results in fewer dollars being reported. When the yen strengthens, translating yen into dollars results in more dollars being reported. Consequently, yen weakening has the effect of suppressing current period results in relation to the comparable prior period, while yen strengthening has the effect of magnifying current period results in relation to the comparable prior period. A significant portion of the Company’s business is conducted in yen and never converted into dollars but translated into dollars for U.S. GAAP reporting purposes, which results in foreign currency impact to earnings, cash flows and book value on a U.S. GAAP basis. Management evaluates the Company's financial performance both including and excluding the impact of foreign currency translation to monitor, respectively, cumulative currency impacts and the currency-neutral operating performance over time. The average yen/dollar exchange rate is based on the published MUFG Bank, Ltd. telegraphic transfer middle rate (TTM).
Max K. Brodén
Q4 2023 CFO Video Update
January 31, 2024
Thank you for joining me as I provide a financial update on Aflac Incorporated's results for the fourth quarter of 2023.
For the quarter, adjusted earnings per diluted share decreased 4.6% year over year to $1.25, with a $.02 negative impact from FX in the quarter. In this quarter, remeasurement gains totaled $71 million, and variable investment income ran $27 million, or $0.04 per share, below our long-term return expectations. We also entered into a reinsurance transaction that for U.S. GAAP purposes was treated as a recapture and led to a non economic loss of $151 million pretax. This transaction has very favorable economics to Aflac, with returns significantly above our cost of capital.
Adjusted book value per share including foreign currency translation gains and losses increased 8.3%, and the adjusted ROE was 10.5%, an acceptable spread to our cost of capital. Overall, we view these results in the quarter as solid.
Starting with our Japan segment, net earned premium for the quarter declined 8.5%, reflecting the impacts of paid up policies, reinsurance transactions and deferred profit liability. Lapses were somewhat elevated but within our expectations. However, if adjusting for all these factors, the earned premium declined an estimated 1.7%.
Japan’s total benefit ratio came in at 66.1% for the quarter, down 90 basis points year over year, and the third sector benefit ratio was 56.2%, down approximately 150 basis points year over year. We continue to experience favorable actual to expected on our well-priced, large and mature in-force block. We estimate the impact from remeasurement gains to be 130 basis points favorable to the benefit ratio in Q4. Long-term experience trends, as it relates to treatment of cancer and hospitalization, continue to be in place, leading to continued favorable underwriting experience.
Persistency remained solid with a rate of 93.4%, and was down 70 basis points year over year. We tend to experience some elevation in lapses as customers update and refresh their coverage. This change in persistency is not out of line with expectations.
Our expense ratio in Japan was 21.1%, down 40 basis points year over year, driven primarily by good expense control and to some extent, by expense allowance from reinsurance transactions.
Adjusted net investment income in yen terms was up 13.5%, as we experienced higher yields on our USD-denominated investments and related favorable FX, and a return on our alternatives portfolio higher than last years quarter. This was offset by transfer of assets due to reinsurance.
The pretax margin for Japan in the quarter was 30.4%, up 370 basis points year over year; a very good result.
Turning to U.S. results, net earned premium was up 1.1%. Persistency increased 130 basis points year over year to 78.6%. This is a function of poor persistency quarters falling out of the metric and stabilization across numerous product categories.
Our total benefit ratio came in lower than expected at 44.6%, but 40 basis points higher than Q4 2022. We estimate that remeasurement gains impacted the benefit ratio by 290 basis points in the quarter. Claims utilization has stabilized, but as we incorporate more recent experience into our reserve models, we have released some reserves.
Our expense ratio in the U.S. was 43.4%, up 230 basis points year over year, primarily driven by seasonality and higher DAC amortization.
Our growth initiatives – group life & disability, network dental and vision and direct to consumer – increased our total expense ratio by 420 basis points. We would expect this impact to decrease in 2024 and these businesses to grow to scale and improve their profitability.
Adjusted net investment income in the U.S. was up 9.9%, mainly driven by higher yields on both our fixed and floating rate portfolios.
Profitability in the U.S. segment was solid, with a pretax margin of 18.4%, driven primarily by the remeasurement gains and partially offset by higher expenses.
Our total commercial real estate watchlist remains approximately $1.2 billion, with around $500 million of these in active foreclosure proceedings. As a result of these current low valuation marks, we increased our CECL reserves associated with these loans by $26 million this quarter. We also moved three properties into real estate owned, which resulted in a $14 million write-down. We do not believe that the current distressed market reflects the true intrinsic economic value of our portfolio, which is why we are confident in our ability to take ownership of these quality assets, manage them through this cycle and maximize our recoveries.
In our corporate segment, we recorded a pretax loss of $318 million, which is somewhat larger than a year ago primarily driven by $151 million loss on the recapture of ceded reinsurance. While we saw the positive impact of both higher rates and amortized hedge income, adjusted net investment income was $116 million lower than last year due to an increased volume of tax credit investments. These tax credit investments impacted the corporate net investment income line for U.S. GAAP purposes negatively by $174 million with an associated credit to the tax line. The net impact to our bottom line was a positive $23 million in the quarter. To date, these investments are performing well and in line with expectations.
We are continuing to build out our reinsurance platform, and I am pleased with the outcome and performance. In Q4 we executed another tranche with similar structure and economics to our first transaction from January 2023.
Our capital position remains strong, and we ended the quarter with an SMR above 1,100% in Japan, and our combined RBC, while not finalized, we estimate to be greater than 650%. Unencumbered holding company liquidity stood at $2.8 billion, $1.0 billion above our minimum balance. These are strong capital ratios, which we actively monitor, stress and manage to withstand credit cycles as well as external shocks. U.S. Statutory impairments were $8 million, and Japan FSA impairments, JPY 1.5 billion, or roughly $11 million in Q4. This is well within our expectations and with limited impact to both earnings and capital.
Leverage remains at a comfortable 19.7%, just below our leverage corridor of 20% to 25%. As we hold approximately two-thirds of our debt denominated in yen, our leverage will fluctuate with movements in the yen/dollar rate. This is intentional and part of our enterprise hedging program –- protecting the economic value of Aflac Japan in U.S. dollar terms.
We repurchased $700 million of our own stock and paid dividends of $245 million in Q4, offering good relative IRR on these capital deployments. We will continue to be flexible and tactical in how we manage the balance sheet and deploy capital in order to drive strong risk-adjusted ROE with a meaningful spread to our cost of capital.
Before I end, I would like to bring your attention to the 2024 outlook slides that we have included in our 8-K for fourth quarter earnings. On our earnings call tomorrow, we will address our financial results in 2023, as well as the drivers for earnings in 2024. I look forward to discussing our results in further detail on tomorrow's earnings call. Thank you for your time and attention.
