Vistra (VST) 8 May 242024 Q1 Earnings call transcript

Good day, and welcome to the Vistra First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Eric Micek, VP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thank you all for joining Vistra's investor webcast discussing our first quarter 2024 results.

being website from at is section Investor today our of www.vistracorp.com. discussion broadcast the live Relations Our There, you can presentation and also find copies release. of earnings today's investor Leading President and President Financial Officer. Burke, and are Moldovan, Chief the Executive Kris Vice Chief Officer; Vista's Executive Vistra's call today and Jim They by senior other executives during address questions are second as part necessary. joined the of Vistra's to today's call

market materially projected harbor presentation statements I website Slide differ to our safe encourage the to in available of the statements. Such results of the review X from all and forward-looking today based most other the Relations are forward-looking that on include presentation, We presentation actual or assume included comparable could release obligation earnings update and those website. Also, matters measures. Vistra's discussed on assumptions Reconciliations cause listeners to no the to uncertainties investor earnings presentation, statements we financial financial that release, limitations are are today's today's date. forward-looking to implied. to on subject CEO, Burke. included references of the be to of certain as President appendix now discussion measures call directly over industry our I explain the and certain the and turn Jim GAAP believe risks of will certain risks in investor the and measures. use forward-looking only which the provided statements, non-GAAP Our on to non-GAAP the Investor in the in contains statements, to data section reasonable of the and call

of inclusion appreciate taking both for hard our quarter this results to stock the XXX. exhibited strong conjunction a market patience place in improving I call. the sector. team result of our bolstered time, all shareholders is by the This in of as milestone you our of Thank time recognize over want to Vistra of first is taking by XXXX S&P namely support day a I major join dynamics work in power the with first call Vistra, and and our you, the execution the Eric.

We the stakeholders. about Vistra in for included excited to are index prospects future its the and pleased be and

Turning to X. Slide

the that results see a we for the long-term worth Vistra's quarter, Before increase it's in positive cover we noting significant outlook.

high-performance day are new hard closing increasing sustainable, the Our teams best continuous on colleagues. The while Continuing practices power name the to and providing unify The of Harbor has were of been power a ready team affordable, throughout that X sustainable quarter best work the for team, X, been this our is execution, Vistra each process a acquisition and to believe working at positioned of demand our crucial our March under of integration improvement. create the during welcome to were Vistra's fundamentals and closely hard with with integration the has work we our reliable, Energy to theme ensure core customers. culture we to and theme sites other at X organization. on share

for potential performance the the fleet. several nuclear identified improvements teams the operational result, a As and throughout

including Harbor the expect from the of run contribution the billion will XXXX. rate identified, EBITDA expected Kris later, benefits additional we exceed synergies As improvements cover Energy we've now these in beginning $X.X adjusted and financial to

priorities. key other the to Turning

May in to X this quarter returned place Since $X.X of to during that repurchases billion of through of year. execute we've our the billion, capital XXXX. time, fourth return on including investors share $X.X approximately continue We our put plan

sheet enabling 'XX. plan. repurchases our capital throughout 'XX shares Crucially, least to an of the balance view strong, remains continue return We to our attractive investment $X.XX billion and at as expect execute and share ongoing

on indicated at leverage the results finished approximately the Xx, exceeding expectations net our previous quarter call. Our quarter

XXXX. year-end by Xx below be to leverage net expect We

approach disciplined in to storage the enables in portfolio. Vistra growth sites on Our us interconnects and invest that solar capital capitalizes energy also

year we and the earlier of and be began where these on paired construction online this solar strategy, and expect Our year. energy end sites good to the storage Calpine by Baldwin this examples facilities of are

our first nonrecourse in completed attractive for providing assets. operating portfolio Zero, capital of growing we've Finally, financing Vistra renewable our

XXXX. operations Slide of to to We adjusted first Moving X. $XXX a quarter compared achieved the XX% ongoing million, EBITDA increase of

As of last results contributing the this you quarter can year. to see, many first continued of into the year themes

our the of lower-than-expected record as to The warmest reflected on across first the comprehensive power hedging quarter country. U.S. led winter of the again XXXX in cleared benefits the program prices

cleared quarter operations, $XX strong February another megawatt with results results. our of per not average to mid-January event rescheduling in hour. In hour mild in quarter, environments, weather we an daily March, team at reflect the so, included and of the volatile prices again business markets including approximately do below us signal power when on down opportunities average generation first to with per ramping over quarter delivered $XX winter economics for a in only these megawatt while which realized strong price XX%. then to weather deliver planned and serve first but Specifically, our optimize outages availability the Being flexible once enabled power commercial

our Texas team another and geographies. Midwest customer retail the growth positive Finally, and quarter delivered count of Northeast across

later this ongoing EBITDA are now a operations or $X,XXX,XXX,XXX growth from adjusted note credit, before complete, potential the implemented Energy to the production uncertainty combined $X,XXX,XXX,XXX. of this the it nuclear to It's excludes around to important free tax any Harbor adjusted year. be a given we're benefit on the how will PTC, regulations acquisition guidance issued that when basis guidance for cash initiating operations and of $X,XXX,XXX,XXX flow ongoing $X,XXX,XXX,XXX With of

XXXX quarter guidance However, of forward prices the could and the the we our the operations for based to amount a ongoing balance adjusted settled PTC curves the where on EBITDA in range. first year, significant believe add

is the below timing of ongoing due to XXXX note a for our operations ongoing impacts. operations from XX% Finally, adjusted primarily EBITDA to before target rate implied you flow cash of stated will couple conversion growth adjusted free that XX%, to

return expect our XX% to in range target XXXX to beyond. XX% and to We

Tradition, we roughly are ranges is EBITDA While view providing and our half that reflect time. of Vision contribute our Vistra is Vistra to to each not over adjusted guidance specific expected for

However, growth given flow Vistra rate expect capital cash and the a EBITDA to expect we higher to rate approximately a XX% adjusted at Vistra XX% before structure, you to time, can at XX% free will Vision current compared of Tradition, XX%. business mix which to convert to convert over roughly

data has of in been to electricity Turning demand. forecast, and other the power X. about from of There demand including discussion recent months build-out substantial much the centers sources potential growth Slide

of by approach XXXX. could additional Third-party demand research indicates data gigawatts center-related activity XX

multiple manufacturing in demand continued we CHIPS by geographies see the These build-outs, also due to teams potential activity, electrification additional commercial, large chip serve. reshoring our industrial of drivers Act; increased multiple partially approximately power site evidenced However, been of industrial, as the residential include: drivers country, Texas, state by to of per the and Texas of at steady in X% expectation XX across in additional strong gigawatts evidenced year. as the which by particularly West XXXX; and demand of X.X% has the load population growth, of

solar, low XXXX ERCOT recent In reports a year see expectations more higher, the increase growth than country of April a gas XXXX wide ERCOT that range. needs. growth continue an these But we that be. from electric electrification, albeit those need the see we load sources. and suggest growth XX issued be the threads large with has baseload wider discussed drivers, greenhouse range these recent the to turbine what recently plant environmental as Permian from make demand X.X% back X% as to to from new expect outcome Reduction to by from also served needle to if Act demand actually Inflation year PJM's through per need as we estimate. generation approximately be or incentivize grid a could of even report, in load per XXXX materialize. their most doubled higher the will half potential will up their EPA from the years to retirements be in combined loads and recent skewing XX those gas Texas, as battery rules gas in before more drivers rules facilities. will it's This demand In been are of the will to and will outcome and economically across rules that final on gas-fired data expected more of demand. The continue Act, high and resources, intermittent The was to peakers to cycle all trailing build markets. The coal wind, the and solution it center CHIPS Natural unclear X.X%, some With challenging litigated the

retires. coal factors for given markets. capacity it is We run overall well likely portfolio annual and is energy existing to Vistra assets diversified higher addition, sustainable as need these assets of needs growing more in In will to meet reliable see trends, our positioned that at

Slide on curves see the the forward can of longer you both X, demand considerably on end up PJM outlook, improved on Texas curve. markets As particularly the and in have the the moved

around-the-clock North megawatt since or calendar fixed over for forwards approximately last price ERCOT hour November example, increased an in provided XXXX. per we As XXXX XX% $X guidance

commented more that from even load conditions past, curves and retirements. that tighter the thermal For result and the did increases we've asset not we reflect the continued and XXXX, the In expected significant. backwardation growth to XXXX planned were grid forward

on and some additional we forward interest With believe dynamics. market transacting curve, the recent recognize out beginning is both improvement the to prices market in further these power in the

which beginning integrated dynamic As market. call, our and us with of dispatchable assets create in model, at critical positions value retail combines this business, I long-term business generation to stated the a well the premier increasingly growing

operations midpoint XXXX As market we to a combined EBITDA billion. opportunity curves, result, a $X.X currently billion $X ongoing based of for estimating on are recent adjusted

results. ongoing to approximately uncertainty of EBITDA review outlook improvement of given quarter turn than from without guidance, the excludes over that XXXX our will outlook result benefit, Vistra sight that, downside we first evaluate while more Kris both And which hedge long-term $X for the any a opportunity addition, and XX%, Kris? is amount detailed we in billion. and for the continue upside I XXXX, timing for adjusted any including our to to it percentage, XXXX the appropriate our operations nuclear is expected will meaningful benefit through near-term to with PTC, of the potential a long-term In in unallocated the XXXX. benefit. an of Like and of to have PTC provide midpoint to any significant capital potential Even remains of inclusion line

Jim. you, Thank

XX. Slide a year-over-year. Turning $XXX in This million first million million $XX XXXX to $XXX quarter including retail. delivered represents from from negative Vistra adjusted million, operations by XX% $XXX results nearly generation, ongoing offset of approximately EBITDA improvement, strong with

to ability of another weather team's quarter strong enabled our comprehensive conditions, optimize of program, the flexible record, including despite assets on our quarter with generation, combined results. winter For mild another warmest hedging the

Turning to retail.

was of the quarter in XXXX, the range within what As we case first the result was expected.

entry power balance fourth ongoing see continued and of the costs We winter substantially We due second continue [ be position all the to retail strong EBITDA adjusted the and months for to summer accounts to and in ] shaping hedge first quarter year retail and the of margins therefore well higher anticipate the achieved in believe year. operations quarters. in for

Harbor, first on Finally, on which combined. On an and inclusion benefited update XX. Slide X Harbor, Energy month process the integration quarter the $XX of we million our approximately for totaled results of generation Energy from retail provided

acquisition, to short businesses $XXX time realized approximately mentioned the Jim that closing. to of integrating Harbor expected and benefits team to progress since significant contribution to expected $XXX has the the later-than-expected identified made XXXX million, earlier, the approximately XX-month timing million in teams gross are estimate. margin favorably despite from As In the the our contribution are completing which benefits XXXX. in-year These compares Energy be bring a

to run Turning rate XXXX expected year-end Further, of to increasing core the total the the Energy this citing first date, across we pleased million synergies we generation teams synergies previously of million when on of am by benefits. competency $XX expected announced $XXX to integrating of of that Performance the completed efforts to amount fleet rate with run year-end efficient nuclear to to million. a identified following to report We $XXX highlighted Dynegy Improvement, year-end rate or Harbor, by of million continues lead operations of OPI, deliver, by communicated we a our achievements improvements by of XXXX. our assets, program program million acquisition Operational the XXXX. Based more EBITDA opportunities we the having adjusted are that teams $XX expect $XX run for rate integration of run our acquisition. I and the

opportunities be additional these achieved spend. to Importantly, with capital we expect little incremental

update Slide XX. our Finally, allocation we the on of plan on provide an execution capital

leading reduction of to call, statements approximately line an share the XXXX. XXXX X, As course November quarter of shares $X.X number XX% and with outstanding billion of that we In approximately execute the executed to to in billion of of repurchases share were May we $X.XX repurchases, the at XXXX. over expect XXXX our fourth on least compared

we trading an thus flow believe to the long-term at today, and elevated see With repurchases capital. yield update our provided continue of our use free sound cash share a be shares still to

allocation quarter Moving to dividend increase when was first X% which our XX% in in XXXX of paid share, program. week plan established. over represents and per XXXX the impressive over capital We increase dividend an stock an dividend the the dividend our of fourth QX our announced last paid of $X.XXXX common first quarter approximately XXXX

balance net currently leverage sheet. ratio at Turning to sits Vistra's the Xx.

to earlier, end below XXXX net Xx long-term to Xx. below of As the by to and expect target Jim leverage stated continue return a we ratio

you issued $X.X leverage to of unsecured we As notes maturities our seen, and April. beginning and have expected billion fund XXXX overall These not primarily may notes levels. senior our issued to the are were successfully increase of at secured

tight are model business issuance the very pleased favorable the well-positioned transaction and We with outlook. of bondholders as by view recognition and Vistra's spreads

year quarter first of was the active Vistra the period for Finally, an Zero.

these the solar began coal to our exceed continue return at larger Notably, we team developments at Our energy our current activities X sites to inflationary comfortably former expect thresholds. of projects storage this spring. construction environment, targeted Illinois despite plant our and

free million the we developing Importantly, business, also capital first loan, which storage was Renewables well structure $XXX long-term renewable step term nonrecourse Vistra financings. energy step Zero growth of goal from operating the projects on cash nonrecourse a a received, initial towards took combination with flow solar of at financing in to our our and the Zero. and the is closing fund Vistra The

the acquisition, Vistra closing Finally, in to in begun with have Energy dividends paying connection we investors Harbor of the minority the Vision.

pay million as capital we on [ will to Vistra's power Our in that part analyze is these approximately current allocation view ] our as program We consolidated expectation we $XXX dividends earnings continue of a basis. XXXX.

We you that, quarter second proud very the on and team's forward look executing of our ready strategic to Vistra line performance for progress year, We begin we're are the questions. against to open remain to updating we committed the our on X With operator, our to priorities. call.

Instructions] Guggenheim first Pourreza question [Operator The comes Shar from with Partners.

priority? you kind it's later we least, this disclosure moves the the curves a details level obviously, that And around resegmentation Jim, between not does to moves expect just sound like you've sparks, should provided separating the broken around not rather record as very or in segments viability in we've year at obviously your thoughts with kind roll forward change sooner vice X companies then later maybe stand-alone than here, the potentially of versa? the the or can just X that more change the but Tradition's seen top of and maybe

Shar. which sparks obviously you've power the a has This Sure. Fixed-price the have think as for focus overall. has Thank value about Yes, I come last of X has discussion the lot noted, increased. in months, Vistra increased. positive really also been tradition, into you,

As how note, part our of overall. business a integrate model the is you we Vistra Tradition key

Tradition we in with and that's level Residential that in that residential. well. And usage lot side have large that supports a extremely business Vistra of vary of is business So have something the a can a very weather. we retail Vistra asset that Vision, has

and of solar, large seasons. in storage On that of and we us side, and a weather help the we, will the some with but that swings the the see Vision would not intraday our fleet have nuclear course,

for And Shar, hoping think I the Tradition is recognized side being is were what so we highly Vistra happen which is valuable. to happening, being

side. about was assets there valuable. ago, Vistra question view the was think that a the were I mark already months Tradition obviously, in a Vision There

I you're would folks some be I the replicate. And been because interested in have think frankly, to inbounds the rules that they're harder we assets with And that's received issued, going to seeing suggest being the addressed hard the that tightening EPA are to replicate. in of these of in assets marketplace. by Tradition even

the shared a We as try, today, information and disclosures. think about the model obviously, script of we integrated So far conversion Tradition some in our as weights. relative lot value flow cash and has we Vision free and the of EBITDA

the So think associated with this some model. But our the a integrated financials goal work don't that. provide GAAP I insights here was into to how for it's point, a at reporting to us priority do on

drive our you more segmentation the to as goal I of lot do and that insights forwards a economics, provide some key to than it think capture investors our the methods. with our to the which, traditional have the know, ability is

I a So think, how of we're bit, about as thinking little color, that's Shar, it.

I what's then, gas a debate I dynamics. at the XXXXs Got ERCOT the through big early market rush for it. That's scarcity And Are we another dent due entry demand end Jim, in guess point? make it even in the whether house view and right kind and of will of of decade. a over perfect. now setting new on builds just mean, this your turbines? on a investor up

question, Shar. Great

in little the Texas -- is all, of application first think will bit. starting I The queue the of open I build loan officially so think gas process a June. to program for

the we Number last -- one, different backwardation to the severe in the I seeing. are have in sparks the a even ERCOT, no think longer it's that accustomed over ways. of improved XXXXs we while early than have couple months, X

sign. bullish that's So would a loan program The sign. be a bullish

it not cycle XXXX. that anywhere if last to to. an combined to make than different for that early comfortable baseload have That do the it XX% operating run cycle final carbon technology somebody the to by were difficult the be factor, combined the was rule rules, turbine see issued capture and technology, week was point rule capacity need will with the which very proposed installed gas EPA can in technology, the over However, XXXXs. we capture would We capability carbon with world the

think less will are capacity to are emphasis think I be on the and the even to a percent going heat sense The don't the need run rate solar, factor. And in I shorter of early peakers. capacity run So with renewables, the XX% But machines higher ultimately than the peakers would build-out coming XX-plus be the to think in, peakers standpoint. make the assets duration batteries, a I you and factor wind, build-out they're from XXXXs. that going saw

far oversupply, I ERCOT. with As situation chicken-and-egg an a as it we're think is in

I the the to for is the there think is and going supply. demand demand waiting be

think I so and serve static it's with demand don't asset which best it. dealing where And we're a can situation

are I leader ever-increasing to it's I development for think the going demand come And on economic coming it's in true opportunity. this as to business, that's to a be wants transmission, think think will that long Texas, to true I as assets which has positioned continue for And grid. as I itself believe be an renewables. open for

I gas think it's like true dispatchable assets for peakers.

I what we different than are the couple So ago. a of decades fundamentals really think saw

'XX Kris. you X incremental midpoint quick And would Kris, to 'XX? that how be then are So I X on fully guess Perfect. how in just opportunity, opened really there were EBITDA sensitive number? much you for if the just

Yes.

number. I'll what say sensitivity, the $X we the feel about is billion On good

that high is. confidence hedge given curves a and where are our number, in the where have We percentage

in twice, moves about we do to to we what XXXX, that versus deck is say, power you'll given roughly confident what sensitive in think sparks our billion would for on see But feel and it's in we're sensitivities, XXXX. showing But it we I haven't look that. number. $X as As we as

Jim, today. you. fantastic execution Thank

Thank you, Shar.

comes next with from question Durgesh Evercore The Chopra ISI.

Congrats print. on the solid

the ask us I you Vision Vistra like EBITDA and can gave XX% numbers about conversion? cash 'XX you and the flow the maybe free Just on for it So is then then Tradition. of looks

the answer Just efficiencies? Is from Maybe get you the are trending? the XX% of Vision that integration, to on things please. side XX%? just that, how what that higher, to drivers more The to is that do you but see talk that

good a that's Yes, question.

and put this As X in rate. lower free on you based I we cash a would would to our target as issues, conversion expect, said of say, And flow the XX%, XX% bit prepared we're a we lot timing remarks, Jim than year. on little emphasis internally that

Slide One that those the is of increased you'll on XX, Energy Harbor -- see million. $XXX of that

$XXX of to that accounting recognition. million One for due expense a change is that $XXX really methodology in outage of million is

that's increasing So that into turning item EBITDA is not but a noncash cash.

-- cash the has structures. that those -- is through for periods, hurting conversion. And And flow the the of the you team is years, products that that has a then other generally as variety we hedge So cost risen would do free the that as expect, X increased. outer in of if retail of we hedging price

create does we between the recognize timing revenue when that mismatch a in those on So pay we premiums when and options cash future the years.

would we forward. to So we reverse as that go expect

timing impacts, just this conversion then to would to moving year starting flow see that XX%. if X closer and be And just those we some us So XX% forward. next get improvements other the reverse our year free closer you cash

of capital you free the the I curves flow. that rise, comment does would earnings what require see to higher additional some and necessarily is, Kris's Durgesh, cash to achieve not add as and expense

expansion you free that the more the margin see you some would see the the to projections of cash nature So and expect by dropping line. conversion flow gross as to of improve, bottom of the improve

part So gave that trend when free we conversion. flow the for cash you describing the outlook we're the of is that

on it the some you yield? Is think What are EBITDA? What flow color. broader going give it share you those IPPs decision-making not there's all it metrics as share Very us to And of about but appreciate group you're appreciate at? that lot we buybacks. to? around then looking it Is a is there's free I market how your a parameters? or forward? clear-cut helpful. cash debate Jim these going answer, buybacks do are and you Is just I long Kris, comp comparing can the

it Durgesh, Sure. we a and as start this started how that -- It were course, next more and to a next was does cash yield the use of process, of compare years talking free of the think, we would a comparison about pair to our When I'll capital. the to very yields argue recognizing cash flow I was as relative [indiscernible] how choice, ago, marketplace. obvious in flow free of deploy north where value capital, best we

our price forward we've to we've also earnings of move, As the continued see share which power is a seen business and good move the the move. thing, curves

still organic Those those, think And us competitive sit think some we're we There some well certainly including We've trading. other still may multiple competitive And we that is on gives from mid-teens share not come there. so projects more now flow opportunities flow in retail M&A opportunities, market. the either/or. competitive. cash have got the value. see returns, that like today of all upside generation. But type do we the plants we projects good where of those peers Zero and news cash down, we currently some yields. The certainly free above confidence type an yields are are see flow have our cash inorganic gas both that could today I where But ability with to in do from the a also free some free you'll Vistra be

lot returning we've the believe buybacks, free XXXX, as yield, our of today through where sit through discussed capital cash sense. we with $X.XX the billion flow still I makes So the a

competitive we on the additional as the benchmark through table. have we've focused flow on do We repurchases, could cash of capital on such either they're but other opportunities. return of got long opportunities other unallocated lot buybacks, of we're return through growth more really as that And shareholder dividends, as capital with options that a

I think we opened add? to Vistra. considerably. choice set, like this place were to ago you'd Kris, years it's but in be not for It's up X terms of an exciting anything that's where

we've our we where we ways recently. and near-term provided the internal sits at we extent from now, don't internal right feel we look our today, would reiterate we to look the well, then just, model to a we see -- value it but we feedback buy. would And as do issue, continue consultants update we partners, which And the exceeds our that again, have where stock given disciplined evaluation. way our an that at our a be it gets that then to different like still it To it, and maintain And I Yes. is our we spend as any is stock. get in being how we've point valuation, discuss to good capital. will done

The comes next question with from David Stanley. Morgan Arcaro

update. wondering, could -- I'm I location... you Great talk was curious, which

Jim. is this David,

Was think mention the about locations. data I curious sorry. I'm centers broke question? little I you heard and that It up a bit us, on

give more timing, attractive data your might as nuclear with the potential which an plants, be update others? wondering was than you to center could I that. about opportunity Sorry locations

David. thank Sure. Yes, you,

now of it I started the conversation are was is AWS think looking came which the at last close rearview this of the We -- early Harbor, March. up of certainly in year great. course, out And is our mirror, at course, time, year. picked process Energy has actually deal prospective which, a Talen the

sites, benchmark a X Then X single-unit unit think what provide. have I that still course. the So the event the was with. The sites industry. I an a certainly the then more that there's is And can sites the for will plants. -- preference desirability unit redundancy is market order gas of their this there's have of and grappling watershed for say

bid tried normally search needs. is been what's us very and sort with of So partners to find interesting, partners to we for David, about our opportunities have their discussions energy potential for into

interesting has as speed partners, I coming partners preference has, potential is us many even this have become in would gas important as nuclear been some. say actually has really Now a very to reversed. them to them. fact, of to We directly. And for

we've So actually RFPs our some actually from can with XX,XXX megawatts. our flipped bit that XX got, XX,XXX standpoint, out some so a it and all options we've little megawatts states And put we've of But projects are obviously, on ourselves. we the with. do table

inbounds, responding be simultaneously of marketplace multiple opportunity actually we've might the best instead out just So conversations us. actually the to handle see what the and gone for to to

And interest. so that excited that process And has process. of not concluded about we're in yet but the we're the very middle

capable can specific the dedicating But ton partner exciting been in a as it's colocators size time. more in parties to happen that developers yet to here probably and is which of know of industry in a David, Of huge personally. progress be course, it that geographies. of you And great us, can We're the a time and development be am it's going the because we're set opportunity quite making And one first. shortly. hyperscalers, the for really one for to process. the some But I we or going good fleet imagine think I most our on one we don't are to think the I multiple

new wondering curious? plants. Great, just potentially you as other plants could that's you color. well, opportunities other would Was at colocation really considering also if be build gas and are yourself helpful touch And on power

obviously, the our on to then potential triple these is portfolio, and could assets capture we That's without a cycle. partners data David. for the we count lift. That you carbon the to combined carbon double, a huge existing they hard actually build really in is that equipment earlier assets. combined large-scale of having be going an data have into have it equipment new speed cycle the that capture cycle a about. centers the supply. combined asset were to ties cost of support It's center not The with talking It like if that goal, Yes, question, which can reliability for any

view really technology point at that as matures. until don't option I So this near-term attractive a that

the existing I for cycles somebody are colocate. opportunity an think combined So to

fact the are we're think build of to pull I likely gas, think alternative, needs the it's but and a price margin to solar you prepared they're wind to to about, to best require continuity and behind. the with of can that many data that prepared But available the so grid the that when supply number peakers if center on next probably be be talking involving run they large there's hedge And that, our the will partners from potentially gigawatts is be some so also the only be get for cheaper could of meters out talking I that power peakers. wrestling to

from battery think likely supply then But to gas these is, a that I more way producing I You're And probably to if the you more grid, going peakers one have role this role. queue. where comes when combined situation to we being surplus discussion see brand in and don't of until into that a could that clarity you cycles to more play be as have I when pulling that and to EPA They're the add load or queue know, to then -- have combined new gas wind, solar And build other. rules. to that along you're the but work heavily it there's be potentially lot about going actually again, there's and with built. I litigated. for the type need. might hybrid will of think a means plays purpose there's standpoint, to gas think, actually a already this play what reliability in I you're think, just

I protracted think where got invest an you've into environment to tough uncertainty it's litigation. with

baseload think existing And to confidence. why much that's I create assets are. assets baseload attention as they with I be as going to so think getting new And are it's the difficult

Angie The Seaport. with comes question next from Storozynski

first aspirations. So just maybe investment-grade and metrics

you're we when line to path time how M&A hit to the investment-grade this potentially -- like what's stock-based to use accelerate wondering could investment-grade? And metrics? mean, actually just going I you So think

Thanks, appreciate Angie. that. I

you know, today, Xx. just we're at right we As said

investment-grade we're of X from other X the notches and away there's from agencies a -- one. with think notch away I the X

So we get have some to investment work grade. to do even to closer

I of mean, the that go think leverage is I time. And cash significant at yet metrics sufficient increase look have the we're that to seeing amount with continuing to -- allocated. down in at our EBITDA as we you're -- look outlook, be we then a over just

And so will that go some repayment. to of debt

could about X. metrics the be -- talking So be next expect to investment-grade year there we opportunities do that in to or

the for about and really timing deleveraging to we to and level get the talking to X we'll start First, agencies sure get. where them to the then make need we below, we want that

investment to edge it's want to don't comfortably call, important in to get last the at area. the the we We that into on said that, for we we to metrics. think we do are be I grade, want us that grade. If right investment of be significantly

So we the waiting to to haven't had we're those detailed discussions upgrade X the yet still below. because like get I notch said,

our been in think stock run still But at currency, noted opportunities currently come it there up we're as we're for call, use transactions. -- this focused. price could and you about as we buying. in earlier to we've room and be still we I our see the we of stock The think just point, has to said, the as

think think don't a transaction. as like time potential the that, did the do for comfortable about think have do we're that I for don't why our would are. specific any driver to we ratings that. would line so. investment-grade we metrics investment-grade any be to certainly We wouldn't driver be But deal opportunistic where So we get but We we'll

then like changing especially and those bit, with And brownfield topics a the your plant. former coal Dynegy the assets sunset site Okay. associated

economic, Illinois. any seems provision, And plants, is to you meaning especially embedded these bucket. upside with in [indiscernible] assets like that the them right? might that associated two, wondering, just that this in to sunset is I from just any So there in now, there's wonder it assets from put output back if former views assets EBITDA reallocated number some I'm your the get of not that in But these [indiscernible] coal [indiscernible] these will some sites of if provided those they're ranges sure you increased change

on think the retiring some all I don't anticipate. They rules plant on or EPA coal being we're in driver rule other Oak of at X in and time is will the X that themselves, law which go-forward curves. that Lake the Angie, that XXXX we the these our but with, be means really that there's need So unless basis given looking main comply change a Grove, coal Martin frame that to plants, are economic, more we

of supply-demand part in more Texas the parts dynamic XXXX up moved more the backward curve, has dates and the think -- apparent. because And PJM dated particularly of the the is real. farther in are I becoming I the even think becoming reason

sites course, about not that and And much of rules in economics so point those it's going the the this at as comply more are we're Ohio compliance, EPA and to with the about effect. of that Illinois are in which,

would we XX% and week, combined add capture that sufficient of either to out to to As needed cycle something very evaluate played think Grove doing which the similarly we've the gas, the the made currently, or could life we And that co-fire are Oak with have be to technology something those difficult all far believe have assets is because XXXX. don't. way possibility, those to do, Lake be last a up potentially to comments That's as to at supply we got again level. carbon we which have gas co-firing Martin extend would we sites, would to about I

lower at level. co-fire Oak it's Grove, some have a We but much

seems with markets And the something Ohio us but those So for the regulated markets, is sites with has in or Illinois. that sites to think, redevelop baseload those configuration competitive I and sites these I rules. and this the comply EPA road Angie, it is across for the is think in possible opportunity happening country, grid, whether do coal operate to it's the down unlikely the to this right on now transition

bilateral just just least the given that ranges. next think in the X capacity meaningfully of about at awaiting those we're sense did a ranges auctions embedded that some I'm you directionally those prices. Okay. auction least wondering wondering what what than you last We X in auction capacity versus in clearing auction. you assumptions I'm us provided can last is incremental give just embed And in kind or at [indiscernible] and contracts. PJM? capacity you expect last us higher if like that And with, we're what seeing those capacity

some that Yes, improvement Angie, PJM capacity trades in we are do indicating see clears. bilateral

for X in coming with and we've our think been that how are pretty July. I the forecast first we've forthcoming, the still conservative assumptions auctions built

visits clears, bring is seen steps day think stakeholders this attempting megawatt we've that see frankly, where them that to retiring. think upcoming some is state supply-demand the successful going I there's, range. like to December, or these we've reforms it's haven't see $XXX been the built. Whether leaders. our of to in be fact of in also recognition and this we the PJM And new forward. They in to be all kind later of has some I the to X that of going there in clear seen in we're $XX, the market a that gas recommended, they've but interest tightening plants Ohio like to going at dynamics coal They'd been

just a signal. assets markets sending not it's which where role to reshoring, want to they other a play in the see out, that the and It's come build they're attracting places key market So ground, Texas dynamic. industry more capacity CHIPS certainly and

a have big prove have what some a we But in we've so auctions to it's been be. they've themselves. call I next eager clears await And we're not going lift anything to couple all So these how historical add? improvement that the an at see embedded, out -- like from Angie, but to seen delayed would this auctions point, you'd out. Steve, while certainly to play of anything we to for

No.

really should to on basically, environmentally-driven historically. than retirements demand are obviously, I think, to hit market with happening Jim, which cleared that that it. as day they continue Jim a mentioned, PJM continue grids and tighter the coal look more the $XXX historically, you very It's at price-driven, tighten. We of are get megawatt you growth in that see least. if PJM average And

question next comes with Fleishman from The Research. Steve Wolfe

the an disclosures. question hedged. back at of just are where XX% those a just for color Thanks kind going the hedging, little give Like current QX year-end how some was you earlier go number, would Could hedges XX% and/or of pricing to I'm to market the be on of the that the XXXX on 'XX, versus helpful. that new it 'XX? Just more timing?

opportunistic. more it standpoint, obviously, our as look the from at hedging, Sure, we Steve,

fundamental where and we market to then obviously look there in the the price where at So is view is, actual our liquidity transact. is

closer the at was to XX% that percentage were a perspective, for of December a give end XXXX. to be frame, time year, to XX% we so just to So last hedged in going hedge

if dynamic depth There's volume, So moving in been to the liquidity participants having marketplace. And going to to your this he's seen recent, team been is baseload it's you the I'd more indicative think you're and is the of I'm recently, particularly that the I it's comment seen well impacts the a Steve, dynamic. coming retiring, by like the more this team, some they've Steve. how on comment. comment recognition been a on that together -- that has in as load And of some be of been coming, and to looking like to move because change depending volume, Muscato in because, more and on again little more also market, for obviously, Stephen as you bit Steve I'd is move supply-demand ask could market this is the

Jim. Sure,

move get As in are to longer willing contango which let's to our we're second is the off. seeing up to you us be curve thing in XX in 'XX a out no events, come buy for formation, no there's is. And are to ERCOT in. We're longer, for for waiting or that starting into basically say, that be XX see look megawatts through it trades to going been scale backwardation we pointed meaning the liquidity enough liquidity it with out, the And and people hedges that 'XX period. we've

willing to people megs time. couple a of at seeing are a We hundred buy

is in, to the seeing we come into And a scale contango we're now we think that because And don't yet. scale try off market. table. something up. so we're that It finite we're some taking can is it some of that done I

ERCOT are if to of are think, as to are you rates, heat reason given really bring not contango, your But in heat want that is just prices fast would why part heat at rates as sparks I not at the expanding I think you the sparks, gas look a and market. expanding. you look focus, rate. But if tightening

we expansion. heat of contango in gas-driven, a is to terms of more rate this and lot think So come there's

questions Are Is around is Okay. your or... between in both difference I hedges other they XX%, between X, big that -- and PJM? XX% just a And there on then ERCOT guess, there hedging.

planning at we comment just are Steve, weren't specifically leave Yes, biggest it that. to portfolios so X our But by front. would those region on obviously, that on I

do depends we I of of depth the the market think the in minute it ago. shared comfortably volume. thing on want and some can move I where And Steve, I I correct we feel to X to to a as the your a moved that's off end respond file to trying was I XX%. XX% and question. the hedge the at were in X was year We closer up closer XXXX, around

information. pulling So I a was and trying little bit my out to be

Yes, worries. Directionally correct. no

nuclear getting a law on just then being fuel questions the of passed. lot been current And with Okay. we've

positioned on how like, uranium you you're Just on comment would enriched and could helpful. be that the

-- pricing Sure. well. There's have index of all outages And for a substantially into supply our hedged we we XXXX XXXX the it. products Steve, and significantly Yes, are the some have way few financially. to the physically have that through as secured we

over them horizon. fueling about good really feel this we planning So

disruptions to ban, over I We're liquidity Peak $X uncertain prices time considerably. We're potentially, and in it whole the process, Energy at that Harbor determined Russian of site. financial ample fairly can will kind cause an the or just there's kind we're to move in well the of market make discussions a hedged Comanche look range. the period, the say, the sure including looking these and up waiver be spot with active in With the to folks should as at very

of a Texas $XX a bit a all roughly range, end that's see to incentivize $X time something bit a frame that we we'll with the of going billion, spot roughly period. But we'll megawatt and But how funding probably into together end to the it little Harbor. we production develops. of were be looking see further to it's that decade this and put in domestic that to down, and the If markets take so all the DOE, of in physically done additional provided that's are little these open a and think physically over the $XX risks, So site, it materialize $X.X embedded out locking down average hour back some the financially, there. on more we've the numbers with good locked Energy job today. we've hedged But of I both for

The next UBS. question comes from Bill with Appicelli

have as the of contracts and the can as duration you higher we been average those move remind side, But of wholesale Most just the my ability on retail through to the answered. us go prices forward roll questions time? prices the

Bill. Sure. Yes,

duration contracts years. to can X up years be business that way the sell X to the So we XX of all a

have which to longer-dated be to Now tend appetite our for customers say as the X- X-year to would portfolio is more residential the business, skewed contracts. to much don't Residential those tend contracts. I

that. meant if so new higher goods themselves also the when sustain the sustained higher in in would market respond steady I has power build seen power from prices a this price prices, and expect prices. has you've been a sold this stable in you to environment, lower would lower situation, and cost past need in And competitive do prices a see high power a sustained retail And you to reflect to of that market. It relatively that mean perspective time. believe the over retailers

X- been hadn't reflect we retailers would standpoint, inflation you try is think, you whatever even to on it's associated that they of the to build, bills so start been power where per hedged. Uri, and expect hour wholesale dollar of in that large wholesale And after from shock-driven retail Storm has integrated more you get procure. But seeing have aren't these side. additive a lower model that categories that folks horizon, megawatt or revenues type retail X-year steady were to consistent margin So past like other Winter the sent vortex costs. fully higher to our the with that a more in more polar by being This with target the there happening I steady

just That's that very on same helpful. follow-up topic. And X then

share market potential as speak the state? you customer you've given in customers growth, In terms of of and seen counts just your growing can the a -- the to pool the population

going to I'm is our the President of Scott cover. to Bill. Sure, ask Retail Hudson, and ask here, Scott business I'll

acquisition, quarter me That of year-over-year. customer on We all, and current had counts also not touch came performance. in all just only we success had these but grew the growing strong first nice opened, from in organically. that Harbor books let of really and the market really residential retail direct-to-consumer the We across Energy Well, sort we're by XX%. performance Sure. markets just some

nice really So rates in growth around population. Texas the

at roughly to retail market of market and Jim share. or X.X% grow that it's And the our kind As exceed to grow mentioned goal market with earlier, X%.

and have our significant we very And flagship the those have that that brands market, what that that particular what them but complement in in So continue of brands advanced our with us by sort grow It large X understand other to these holds targeting products Energy analytics brands towards brand is of another. to and TXU share X use allow ERCOT specific to goal populations. continue a is optimizing sort also we really of populations, what coordination to markets.

Jim This like our to over Burke turn for remarks. any closing would back I question-and-answer the session. to conference concludes

look a our which we again our platform you. and We and growth inclusion excited I and Yes. for joining Pennsylvania. unique And in thank visiting includes Have S&P your we appreciate are Vistra, and soon. XXX future forward Ohio everyone, Vistra opportunities. and milestone great Thank looks to Thank and a you, great bright. very us, want our new our in to about the investment is The team, interest day. members

now attending presentation. for concluded. Thank conference The has you today's

may You disconnect. now