Nutrien (NTR) 18 Feb 212020 Q4 Earnings call transcript

Greetings, and welcome to the Nutrien 2020 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Richard Downey, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, operator. welcome XXXX conference outlook. and and our to everyone, quarter fourth year-end morning, to call Nutrien's discuss Good results and

the and today and us CFO. phone Chuck On President Magro, is CEO Pedro Mr. Mr. Nutrien; Farah, our of with

conference applied conduct statements various in conclusions actual forecasts. in expectations, making this about information. Certain results that contain Therefore, materially contained and these our prospects As forward-looking make from could material future call, we we plans information. assumptions those differ were forward-looking and

Additional these over you. current and recent Canadian information about will I Mr. as shareholders factors information annual contained and the with direct Magro. Chuck most in quarterly as U.S. now turn assumptions securities our annual our to our and filed are report, commissions MD&A report call to to form we well which

I Richard, down good to in history. go And Thanks, as challenging healthy. your safe as and one call, that everyone. will listen years morning, the most loved ones recent hope and you are you and XXXX of this

we can of year, much better economically. see socially we look and towards a both prospects As XXXX,

For we some includes in have fundamentals time. Nutrien, input than seen stronger agricultural and this crop

virtually capital our operating for That manner per the our both dedication best results a and ongoing to We the of our was our annualized during share has security key and pandemic. returning quarter. in outlook, review Last world businesses I ever commitment and also they the $X.XX business, farmers fiscally while a program our feed for inputs more across appreciated. thank including progress long-term achieved services responsible of business and food today our that growing to to year Nutrien's The this implement our strength excellent fourth that of announced regard, execution Nutrien's and strategy as remain take to been dedication need the in this our Before thoughtful right we in impressive to providing and on increased X also committed across like safety dividend yesterday moment employees a our I'd dedication shareholders. We as and XXXX results. well the see purpose and all In basis globally and reinforced apparent in importance their health metrics, we all to demonstrated important factors for sustainable are crop to our an of year truly never your to conviction beyond. have and new share XXXX. buyback intention we evident

First, we despite believe and there recovery is including solid global growth food economic demand in by agriculture aided catalysts, structural the turndown. in a cyclical underway, some fertilizer

very growth. chain. our we is of that industry-leading prices plans that to and will Nutrien finally, our improve well position cost contribute growth, competitive control, leverage ag higher that positioned And the sales technologies from are fertilizer will with Second, volumes across and and earnings further reductions input have value the implementation within

Ag lower are Fourth we significantly annual cycle, quarter year-over-year, in EBITDA target than billion over accounting higher of cash up the in cash gross at to the XX% same for after quarter volumes of quarter fertilizer fourth last to for with up were stellar crop excellent delivered Retail products due our in low cash XX% the lower Australia growth season the XX% mostly $X.X was result fourth the full percentage percentage point this of an Brazil, and significantly was fourth and U.S. Even Solutions flow, Brazil the Earnings and On both with and organic year-over-year. the the crop the in mix wide-open flow performance were were up quarter than from margins. up year. This slightly application Nutrien where $X.X well our improvements a Now in in turning and generated both capital. margins dividend protection growth, year in an of period and to in fall and fourth protection margins were billion basis, results. for working year. quarter flow and margins a Australia due protection last at typically free noticeably margins quarter to effect U.S. the a U.S. crop firm XX%.

through acreage full margins. retail and retail and strengthen acquisitions. Organic services expect position in we our of customers offering for crop and XXXX, the growth million competitive in continue XX% business margins further operations. grow all our sector, EBITDA, improvement the our the expanding growth generate ag across to annual protection to and For that of accounted XXXX our the our solutions innovation other in in leadership $XXX intend value XX% products about accretive We for from with new

surpassing location approaching of XX%, and million per $X U.S. target per EBITDA increased fast million facility XXXX Our selling facility. our $X.X per

of year Our EBITDA our the demonstrated earnings XXXX. this in of also retail the by XX% over sales U.S. increased to to grew EBITDA strong by X.X%, size reaching accounted increased full almost XX% growth EBITDA just EBITDA percentage Retail regions the to sales rates a margins Retail and point, in organic in across while for increase by total outside nearly were XXXX. X.X% all major of XX.X%. U.S.

through target of ratio chain which below end X capital enhancements was from investments we retail's also ongoing supply optimize. which contributed coverage technology cost million XX%. an our by cash point. is on this supply working Furthermore, declined which our nearly in even also the percentage season resulting reduction This and the operating We low with helped retail a despite Ruralco combined inventories from to focus our our working capital XX%, in improvement chain achieved and to impact XXXX average XXXX, the to continue improved acquisition, low ratio extended fall These $XXX by record actions, improvements. drive lowered year

$X.X double sales the and exceeded more XXXX, million than platform levels. Xx digital original in billion of our goal $XXX Our XXXX over

orders year XXXX, achieving this with next in of demonstrate are sales of the We continued X XX% of digital in retail targeting and now again years. North goal the American billion expect momentum $X to

Moving flexible to due in the exceptional fourth demand offshore Sales expectations this surpassed markets. volumes volume increase $XX XXXX. for operations. volume in quarter cost were potash cost per to able On our perspective, annual of and over continued our X.X low our we were U.S. demand, year. up an From to cash basis, last in record tonne strength America. tonnes and meet million We achieved fall North in leveraged we network to the a

and business, saw progressing cost automation the our excellent for XXX,XXX XXXX, in and are improvement nitrogen volumes, debottlenecks and good both safety operations. operating for North year. will sales we a strong also We significant contributed in cost from that These rates continuous benefits programs the We our tonnes in in optimization sales to and further our projects controllable Similarly, improve quarter and our nitrogen cash decline to American position. due by volumes increased reduce our agricultural demand. factors our

reallocate for usage. recovery capital outlook. assuming Crop the of in we $XXX the as seeing our America, position can several to We this return addition, agriculture cyclical sold weather. the The Egypt nitrogen to believe equity XX% we part we could start get in season be facilities a million MOPCO normal setup and have review, reasons. higher improved is excellent our North as multiyear Shifting crop we portfolio for ongoing of for prices the in in spring inputs. In

large-scale bushel. as China we inflation are on believe America rebuild following corn their operations have South and North transition fever. in going oilseeds industry rely in food more to will devastation help has yields is hog swine per by to importing believe forward factor We professionally as grains $XX domestic that nature. major the utilizing feed been is demand, crop rations which over caused recent African prices stronger herds China ease While to their more crop below structural trend, as they more the slightly and imports they need been heavily manage

the With X years, least to is acreage demand supported of input In XX higher increased prices globally. by in planted U.S. increase future at soil grower crop we activity. the We spend set crop anticipate crops which prices, and for prepay meet countries will acreage objectives strong approximately for acres. crop higher around and strong the change be In to expect the million total there also in sampling highest use by level margins potential climate by alone, customer XXXX, in world. many our biofuels in U.S. see the planted to we for response

year-over-year $X.X Our is to of billion, expected for billion business units EBITDA achieve $X with annual to higher adjusted growth. guidance significantly all

we'll to and from sight We Australia a year. half have on continued line more of our get continue refine as second in and spend America of benefit half planted XXXX, we outlook discretionary to insights Ag Nutrien first to strong Brazil. Solutions in growth increased expects and North acreage, the of the higher good

increase the market. In market. lagged transacting are as at so far, now potash elsewhere has often price in U.S. seen For prices the they strongest potash, prices tonne. Brazilian in have firming are seen rallying a rise every standard but prices The Southeast a do $XXX Asia,

weeks in $XXX prices further Asian markets. coming certain believe tonne firm approach will regional we could a the However, in and

positioning domestic fully levels, We volume selling or at continue on to or higher to without price fill our and China. sales are order international April book and through we India committed

supported XXXX volume and well nitrogen are curve. conditions to prices improved being market higher to Our guidance and crop million sales and conditions. we tonnes expect prices match as a and cost XX.X higher demand phosphate, million strengthening is XX from In demand stronger by for industrial as

for markets significant are an year in a We these Nutrien. on from be will also XXXX ESG XXXX. also perspective constructive

regards new long-term interest first the a half farming growers in one-of-a-kind this by our our in of metrics the which program overwhelming We will continued unveil has area. this demonstrate there comprehensive been to the world. will an with In in year, strategy program, leadership around carbon performance

and agriculture, fundamentals value investment capitalize the is We in to management we'll believe ag including scaling across in positioned continue and sector in to market spring, acres the direct XXX,XXX company to unique growers well up expertise, Canada for capabilities its and with monetization the chain. Nutrien program future. on connection have best-positioned U.S. Nutrien improving our in to and digital the work pilot across on our is in this We our program and agriculture. carbon lead lined the the

market earnings actions creation and we under We control At exceptional and to grow have in generate business control Investor opportunity recent what levers the we improving in with value focus is experiencing. can plus pathway value agriculture, that outlined over through commitments. and a cyclical within our leverage follow control. Day, our currently years This on to on we our recovery our to always, X are our $X very we conditions. a plan, as billion And next our will presents compelling the

I of years his questions. management all all the Mike wish down Mike step the to past wanted Executive let's valuable decided With the open retail entire we X business. for you Frank best On over in Finally, Nutrien's that to that, operator, know as Nutrien behalf has the VP it of for thank contributions let him team, and future. up

Instructions]. [Operator

question the of Bout comes Your Jacob first from from line CIBC.

your to you Hoping a Is questions potash a below recent could with spot India do price? selling guess to year producers settle that producer low see I international We've on such X activity to get settling at this speculate, got were my markets. see a the market similar why if China that prices. would you at producer moving are, a we and thoughts India market? And prices? and China was in

the feel perspective market the beginning world. we're are rushed clear the major I'd that What these actually there's current potash were China. Yes. We market going not our has We've you're been for yes, X, players Jacob, now contracts sign with And right. from seeing say sure. reflective of India conditions so only X had right contracts and in on lots but is, this. certainly and pretty right the on around

But it. the Now world. we we're going seeing basically on around and not certainly we're can't us, demand to is what for just strong change that, dwell

domestic if sales America, to, the by volume the are over strong So home. North relative here you by quite have India that increased going really are contracts at last year, and China. the up at pleased demand has X say, And momentum have good Brazil. look million signed with and we prices that we high Prices nicely moving forward. for tonnes, in Brazil our driven demand primarily quite in there, now and been we're progress book

and India clearly that, is for right back. thinking is on China the we we're now are look way it, And say markets us, at now I'd our lowest what the those table. all So about net are options when

accordingly. at to levels And our going volume to certainly rest don't significant allocate expect we're put disconnected the markets in world. So price the I of those volumes us from

to better and places Canpotex we're have things is unfold. for in to prioritize have but And we'll active we how our the So see to potash, going obviously, discussions, those put XXXX.

question comes from Scotiabank. line Ben next Isaacson Your from of

talk America that hit especially growth in can the goal EBITDA you in You Are then the talk as follow-up, a overall, in right North we there you but can Chuck, retail that should the just margin? I is what your retail is U.S., What how EBITDA now margin? about guys of we're decrease higher about Are exposure, slightly maybe Plains about for X.X%, seeing that the and And think believe, positives? Southern area? risk? there negatives? the

Ben. Yes,

So decrease our impacted seeing, it look, that retail we're the not has operations. on

nitrogen it answer I'll impacted the it's comment that retail have And questions talk probably your to Raef may So broadly. first. industry has let be me But because more through. on important Sully

right Canada but weather to would farm fertilizer. expecting very across very fertilizer we're right in recall, with storage up here, Canada. even So was season XX cut spring some very short a there's optimism incremental has fall now U.S. and corn last obviously, application planted. solid the We're the management good activity, season we're in spring in acres the for million and of chain you Canada. of being I an generally, the movement if got the and U.S., prices retail moving fall, in supply In right season expecting south. expecting more seeing down we're And We've canola is still strong just a slowed now, now the solid the strong And say,

much had an impact hasn't really of there. weather the So

to over EBITDA nitrogen in on with Before just the I turn your it to to talk margin. we're weather, Raef seeing about what question

So very growth. we're good seeing

XX was In had I And years, this fact, if looking it day. back go other the at business X.X% margin. you a

have and to and is really more a slow is strategy that that lean retail And the up network steady. platform And then make supply on overall farmer cost. we we out over So be think and we think clear. that that, that, lot very margin continue there driven opportunity to And layer journey. EBITDA the to It's relationship higher-margin in trying our margins at the the think you there's will our we is a been is portfolio chain strategy the optimize as and products. opportunity time, Part our drive back with that we're and at of efficiencies same on the if that time, well. now do, for least X proprietary drive years. going course, our reduce digital efficient, we've top some office sell to employing and products What of of more that,

say there we've is upside we number, want that to that you think So except same it's seen. on significant the and to path a don't I give that

a you slow on retail. what in overall perspective you EBITDA Raef, we're from for in steady the seeing comment is So expect increase to in U.S.? weather and want what a should quickly do nitrogen just margins

Thanks, Yes. Chuck.

to last XX So it's -- on being have Chuck plants we've spell because couple obviously, impact the whole, in days. see with of are I off has Ben, nitrogen We been gas industry X Most their of as cold supply supply down as pricing. seen impacted. the mentioned, gas think a impacted that selling them the the of

X the We're plant moment. XX% come to about issues. that's down had have running We at mechanical for XX%

the industry as spell week cold the largely, expect by the whole back up end on. the passes will of be We

to at their impact of gas the come the pricing. bit opportunity a there's number of just season start But spring down in will probably into continuing some firmness mean there's the to sell supply So plants them little have an come down market. of the because for to largely

from Your question Citi. from comes P.J. of the Juvekar next line

pigs, rebuilding long herds. talked Chinese about about I to months. that continue? X How XX You it think would of takes for

into something demand opportunity 'XX come 'XX? of that continue sort that that biofuels will and maybe much on about sort into growth grains, for can And So you then of the from? that would mention talked you how is

going our Go I'm to questions. P.J., your answer Jason of Head ahead, Market have to Yes. just Newton, Research, Jason.

to When unfold, the hog it rebuild recover. herd to started heard was X take we for years that going it to had between X and anywhere

in below within You've the that government the But private XXXX, probably Chinese level. think estimated that the seen it rebuild significantly the herd I were estimates numbers rebuilt that about was China herd by late XX%.

to expect as pork a we'd prices are of bit recovery is what the think strong. see currently I a bumpy

And than And into selling breeding will rebuild then That's the in China normal hog news things of may feed degree. see periodic you to the disease, meat despite the herd, outbreaks that is totally China. so demand bumpy slow market. a some of to seen rather that are strong grain going in some farmers we've occur, The extremely the pause that also is in causes road good which rebuild.

rebuilt, herd as barns style being with is the is As and rebuilt more feeding it commercial rations. hog

growth mandated. lot not we unlike specified been forward standard, the the side, the occur -- biofuel biofuel renewable with growth On and potential a has what saw to going fuel of

as U.S., that a by about blend fuel move helps we billion that equate XX% would part for be for reduce Canada out, in biofuel the to the bushels rolled the So uncertain XXXX, X to rate supply a of of talked In fuel emissions. a component potential standards if of corn. that additional are example, like. what to it's EU, U.S., bit in little about the looks and But that being there's clean

place there what strict the we uncertain mandates. with incrementally and Indonesia positive, think definitely Malaysia, outside in see strict biodiesel blending because mandates impact of I in is aren't so And but more

P.J., X comment in Yes. on just more herd hog the China.

the X is rations. but rebuilding the thing, managed So they're rebuilding with feed how professionally

where persist is incremental think That's comment that for I because either thing a the soybeans we're could made the way now. in the need foreseeable rebuilding structural beginning of they're the how that's think their we corn for they're right the just remarks I that herd. observing -- prepared That's the future. rations of new or

the question Crédit from Suisse. comes line from of next Chris Your Parkinson

Great.

Chuck, beginning Just very quickly, retail. on

update other So So margins? could product expand there's a your to on America. digital us an on of also and across ag, just above-market you your third-party acreage growth drive Can And an you quick that all growth be et in that give platform North would penetration, if Australian great? ops just cetera. update also initiatives include

sure. Chris,

same for of the $X our we Day have So is margins. in like plan we the multipronged. and billion, time, we'd next Obviously, look, X we'd course, out to like retail, At that's of that the midpoint EBITDA grow the EBITDA the at what set retail to the provided. to Investor years,

invest is built, And about to is strategies. think, The platform is implementing that do the proprietary so you as and with allocating then, overall X that. The One think second and to none. higher-value I we've if we're part been way direct that you digital retail, strategy, of products we've really well that and And trying platform technologies. we're that's certainly capital products know. is the in services to

platform in Australia We now and have Brazil. that in same

enhancement driving those in major That's and customers. driver. which first the companies margin is for products integrated have we So differentiation countries, really

growth. just is geographic second, The course, of

success, just Brazil. a Australia. off in building And in tremendous think, So we've platforms good now to start leading I had really we're in

integration, very time expect of more every Ruralco the And in I impressed performance synergies get look So increased we we've And the they a is at the do. I what underway. Australia, there's can through from that that and organization, just well already acquisition perspective.

last I small when few a helped was Then what did in as look in well. it at remarkable. had also we year the Australia, pandemic, We which acquisitions pretty Brazil, during

a Brazil Brazil And about just announced XX announced just locations an with one -- run did we ago, sizable in we we in So and company our the platform acquisition we retail with rate products now sales integrated X has $XXX of X the have X ago, acquisitions. weeks weeks million. now have

to $X So billion Brazil. wanted, way well out revenue was on our of about we what which coming in

driver, really sorry. second that's the driver, So third the

And optimization, new I And journey would and larger and where we're new even The third think, technology be with in network I working XXXX. about exclusive is a the to Technology, we've say chain going and products to with share the geographic business. we've see, talked of working really jointly and having time, on the core we're success our suppliers. or before, solutions optimization been relationship, investing with driver deeper that products, Nutrien. certainly -- course, that starting this that's what is then, less in are to some supply for diversity so of suppliers

next of Your Sachs. Goldman comes Samuelson question line Adam from from the

little I X% your to up and the X% thinking markets up maybe your XXXX areas the about was all on up kind retail expenditures in is EBITDA The outlook kind And of you follow key of for operate. hoping more. bit a crop to just where XX%. plus outlook guidance key year-on-year, is in

leverage just in that you're trying farmers up probably market so when a least you some different that about mix this temper, about range good of crop you're me the trade in would buying best high-end -- might favorable outcomes faced and to years, certainly, at that as framing in what volume making terms pretty X range of that think of I'm seem be they're good investments to think and help the some should operating the environment? the So there, low how input be inputs what

That's right.

perspective. a way the is, describe I think we're it EBITDA growth I obviously, very tried expecting to would retail. look, good in We've So provide

would we is XXXX, the year-over-year. at Last And business about retail up X% grew you think the beginning I XX%. year, XX%. retail up the If since of midpoint be look it certainly,

our crested million. growth initiatives. per growth. came over good very target way to on $X.X as XX% And I organic XXXX, growth million the So the came of mentioned, finally from of location our And $X -- EBITDA it

would initiatives for that same. growth say from it. that growth expect And XXXX to organic have that I going think then And M&A The is of more behind outlined the our of year-over-year. we'll we're I've We have very so reasonable majority what already. come will

the I how it a both a perspective, -- would you've M&A the doing question And bit so asked way the would the get if little be we asked was to earlier more end, I top about on have year. right in but And North from would pipeline seeing world, we good a of is opportunities, now say. around what pipeline M&A the in we're America

And so see. we'll

that the backdrop is positive very think I crops retail. for

So acres, of and we soybean one planted all acres, corn the well as benefit in thing but south, I retail. acres will will more other XX more million the cotton see And that think second half adjuvants, most the really meaningfully discretionary in retail more products. haven't year, micronutrients, those sort the years likely of which of on spend is for seen couple a boosters, we yield in of

couple haven't high last as As because years we which in really expecting crop crop soon very of pricing. the ground, we're a the comes interest, seen the of of out

of the from comes from BMO Joel question Jackson next Your line Markets. Capital

mandate prices they of other why there? players, a to then seem volume. is have China, Chuck, get And you the Southeast and let's global and and different to up, has pricing. a back if which want of the challenging on Asian and Can Asian to answer Why lock is you to a bit potash Belarusians and India so bifurcation the in discussion it granular been the between questions? pricing go couple maybe than BPC

net, China India, a want flow And a prices and you has not and you pricing of got -- cash tonnes you've do concerned predictability out up on in want too. reconcile to to everywhere and have they BPC So year get be to sell tonne do lock advance, in Brazil because deal to price in that? Like somewhere with you match. how to they how

Okay.

a about, lot to Joel. there there's talk So

market. is what company volumes every the X I can all sell First would all, of say in no

a So this and global massive it's is growing. market,

demand terms not incremental don't so to the into growth million coming this are incremental global of expecting tonnes market. that in and year, And of X we much of up supply forget,

Asia, question other and So on Ken to let Canpotex, we But the this working like the to Go of perspective. with he I'll right day-by-day comments provide answer back Seitz that with pass can your ahead, over Ken. backdrop. rest he's Southeast And come because then some on now your you questions. a me

Yes, Thanks, great. Joel.

I'd are So Asia. seeing actually prices, yes, happening that we the in they're would some see the argue you in in if part reported strengthening lagging Southeast -- -- fact, I of world. that what's

we in course, Asia saw oil prices palm continue significant in palm XXXX saw in Of oil oil And to palm Southeast recovered. with disruption in prices recovery prices demand We XXXX. as off demand dropping strengthen.

markets, into that So other XXXX, spot tender it's potash In those to their a words, are levels. Asia, system. Southeast more but of Malaysia, procuring in sort Southeast back XXXX we see they are Asian getting demand. little demand strong using Indonesia, seasonal nature because

another we're next I we like the of see X.X seeing expect Southeast to do months, we'll tenders of in coming. sort over of round round tenders And it that Asia months, say, strengthening with And so now. see

to the of with be Asia potash but rest lag, on the see prices the with strengthen. going You reported Southeast believe may we -- is it's as it trend prices, globe not, in

Yes, Joel.

the global And the tightness. that we're wrap versus we XXXX backdrop the forward So in means pricing that just to because rate Even XXXX, a usually have which be will to at it going going expecting increase. in momentum the operating our global XX% expectation year-over-year is terms of seeing if be rates, quite to a are global rate, operating up, is in potash somewhere And we like operating supply/demand to we're to you going look business. just continued close is tight.

able it the markets market. prioritize be netbacks, to we think And the just, I before, customers will the highest make said service we Nutrien sure the that have we're that So need wants I to into way the that going to move we're our as move where we but volumes to.

Your from line Byrne from Bank of of America. the next Steve question comes

flattish hear can to in of your generated gives your products you proprietary you XXXX. that do Dyna-Gro XX% like confidence slides to and last of your retail brand or by more One view this that to the XX% XXXX as years. would being the drive on you're what see EBITDA do X you And indicates And I Loveland get going how brand? think you driven given the there?

we when added the over so We've in we've investments Actagro Brazil. made that Steve, the the portfolio. we've Yes. years, portfolio to at last Agrichem we of look couple added the think

a that offerings got of broader a in kind we've of phrase set all robust, are So up more say, proprietary wrapped I'd that products.

of when got that value suite line. be And just expecting add that we tremendous you margins year, were at up bottom were quarter Protection, in last going to a year, U.S. they so we're to confident the are grow. you fourth look for Certainly, the at to products full up. to look are actually CPP And the crop we've And able very farmers' even if our

move just with now the to CPP products in we through Australia. that And Ruralco we need new the have channel through so

So Brazil. the sorted now. in that's of new just acquisitions we getting kind out of And that right course, have

perspective, to say crop a from protection we're continue percentage. to well positioned I'd that So grow

I to Dyna-Gro our mentioned none, in got the is that that we've Dyna-Gro. second core and think, germplasm had And markets. and seed there we've just is what tremendous success, you Now I'd say with

do. And for at last optimism it's look versus a up that XXXX if our you plainly order Dyna-Gro seed, lot time of will so around book for year. what we this have then And just our

get I we'll in think, really to the what that confidence be seeing of products. you terms indicated. to of our And the numbers that we that's forward good momentum, the drives percentage So proprietary are able

comes Stephens. question from of Mark the from next Our Connelly line

into of spring, in but just sort us. I you Chuck, net probably at freight was the a complicated you least curious through in could if it's context of for the takes sense logistics could My of businesses. and the put nitrogen, puts is higher and walk sort us hoping I'm positive

Yes.

then the So the I little logistics, for will is maybe bit potash Ken and talk Mark. in same have what can a I'll do I Raef do nitrogen have you about

ahead, go So Raef.

Mark, you you're bit a question for? that sorry, more the I'm little could give me looking Okay. on just

complications rates sort from in we're the higher of about logistics and about business, the of this product Sure. for I'm picture, nitrogen your moving global -- in to really into everywhere for affecting season. of hearing spring perspective first and a of trying in are think the both what big kind terms place impact freight

rates. I recent mean, actually some getting Look, successes, we've had better

warehousing about a the got or country. we've terminals So locations XXX of across network

guess I I guess have network -- to the the for don't be positive having tonnes the So and spring ahead a been of close customer. had, we've season able it's we Using to been us. we've

but there. not answering question, I'll that's I'm sure So your perhaps pause

you And you so want add? got specific anything to if

me jump Well, here let Raef. then, in

had integrated highly placed actually what's the just for where forward answered wide-open you've the at you the store we and distribution in the able the you so week, I'm is of we America season industry. do if think it And in network, looked but think if to needs season. inputs. last product it go the between So at sure peers have we the of when anticipation spring ag overall largest seed, us, right I for downstream market, we all not look can and storage Literally, comes business review in a it's at look inputs that last is of say we were just question, to at to crop to a look now And upstream And about exactly it be and retail fertilizer and our in front the if I North spring. it week the one business. ready the in networks and spring when you the

you from think, for perspective, think I international also can we advantages, I to that, Ken, potash. talk and some an have

managed us And I continue our meet Chuck. quarter say customers, well. ours to And those saw in demand. our of that between rail just Mark, to warehouses movements XXX the serve absolutely, that we would XXXX, and domestically, mobilized where and we infrastructure Yes, growing fourth

which, at So that mostly low are earlier, moment, order committed. very and the chain as North Internationally, are is iron the up, supply vessels seen we while those it's in book, that freight ones rates the QX low, carrying some in our to our ore. capesize it's heavily meet but and ocean inventories I true utilizing true America on, said we've are QX effectively go

I us. net market But global up as for is the ocean freight prices think, around and positive go commodity We expect the you will is tighten say, a globe. volume moving more that as Mark, that

today, commitments. to we're it those we stands be potash as record expect to able again, expecting, all and demand, So absolutely meet

of comes Your line the from next question JPMorgan. Jeff Zekauskas from

Can you for a market Do you that view of differently impressions a that. your know phosphate the give about were little bit you us now? I tightness in the while, bearish market?

want in now? we're market phosphate you do Raef, seeing what right about talk Jeff. to the Yes.

certainly. Yes,

is I think So continuing. look, Jeff, tightness the

is think [indiscernible] jury's I lot North of Obviously, not. we're saw. we we'll whether XX, that the with March or up is ruling finalized in what see a tied America seeing

an But we think that's tightness go increased some if We from second continue. of the -- -- ahead, the the market. others. into still tightness see will imports OCP even that production is the phosphate I may to see doesn't that towards underlying I and the think we'll if and suspect year, see latter coming I country there half. should end start in in think the I

I there's in a supply. think, tightening structurally,

next Your line UBS. the of John comes Roberts question from from

Does the in imply especially unlikely acquisition retail, Brazil? any significant to activity authorization buyback see in were they

it no, not. does John,

year, pipeline, as got So what growth in both. we I is for do the we've good at growth. plan us, able stronger to retail, always a M&A to was really we talked of and opportunities very the predicated at as do plan with we've front the and we expect we this be looked on But we'll look have when about organic mentioned, opportunities,

it year like in I the debt to you we if EBITDA, think think be right X.Xx. to net where zone year the the last finished about with around sitting, where middle So of we'd we're

going generate financial we very expanding a So And market margins. the we capacity. to XXXX. of expect cash have We're in flow into free strong

at buyback allocate that an we but capital longer So for yesterday, you Board business grow shareholders. the part that, best mix. expect we we'll XXXX. of term in approved it a the will But retail would the returns certainly is important and The can to to prioritize be look do expect

line of comes next Markets. from RBC Your Wong Andrew Capital from question the

I a on to the just bit focus guidance. EBITDA want little

guide. volumes a then. the $X retail look are history that to are, at maybe compare then higher obviously you've XXXX, and since well I'm when and XXXX, billion. as is assuming, synergies had higher, as acquisitions the lower with you we with But seen So potash acreage, nitrogen costs using improvements whatever

obviously, delta, So little is of pretty a but market fundamentals are pricing also that strong. bit

So there? fair that say maybe putting -- guidance conservatism it some the range there's in you're to is am in that I

was Andrew, put in a year, quickly. moving it difficult as in fertilizers a look, pin bit certainly guidance pretty prices range this to the are

So here's about think we provided. how the that we range

to you because there realized is without between for the you that fertilizer, the true companies prices for lag well First, were any were benchmarks. to saying our with look at have sell we if year, product. beyond well of an to But range. the place to And that's a NPK it in be we goes would of our look end top at and today's that prices market entire guidance forward

phosphate. especially normal a is and expecting for pricing, we're in seasonality what nitrogen obviously, So

of I higher based for would is changes be we we prices which seasonal but important. The to a would range reset expect, what the last saw have more bottom think do supply/demand. So to spring than consider I end Mark, on with lows somewhat our after season to subside year, significant

how we near reset Today's and would we end see of you'd the significant to bottom. prices, above to a year, be pretty bracketed come full top well was the if for So it. it that's our have the And so fertilizer up to guidance, ground the like crop in moving quickly. more. were this was a isn't isn't even learn we'll market -- and said, we particularly I the time challenging North The as And update America right now. certainly prices because continue

of from Andrews from line comes Morgan Vincent the question next Your Stanley.

in global XXXX, Slide for this at your potash XX forecast. looking deliveries Just

you put like and put even can North favorable acreage, little below projecting around color the if potentially to you're of and it would 'XX. to economics America? down, kind looks good flattish maybe which be Just a despite It it 'XX -- the

So what's process the thought there?

can you. Jason. Jason ahead, that for question Go Newton answer

a Yes, season really We the weather. fall did see strong of just given certainly historically fundamentals season driven throughout and and expect potash in strong expectations. spring Vincent, high acreage to we see in applications by application the XXXX, XXXX,

And so build the point assume range we channel which weather would North American were XXXX 'XX, market. inventories throughout a XXXX. years of the normal a and saw out And you in where more scenario

to inventories with come tonne million range. remain that And through be XX.X year channel so our the flat assumption to million would X.X up that

maybe one And comment. just other

what been increase XX%. have the that it's is we've with an up we in So by actually the the sampling in to soil that really U.S. data watch of data come interesting number the And seen in. sampling now, Waypoint about there's soil

of about last So seeing really farmers the levels what soils or there soil that X looking and their are are fertilizer at are deficiencies. good. which we're But the is average, for pockets is years, constant over on fertilizer X

then if that is was concerned pull XX%. wasn't. So you a also there and XXXX what And were us is into lot we at retail, the prepay up that forward that look XXXX, of I in about our there of end showed customer think at

here very half second think the spring indication I will through in until where accurate. factor of Jason season. But the think that phrased the way we strong I won't a that a solid get half. there's we determining So first has the And And year. that the be know sort absolutely of is of

Your Research. the next of question comes Piken line Cleveland from from Michael

question analysts I guess of related to sort of this follow-up a other asked. one is the that

X Looking it maybe one And tons talking backdrop exports about like decade. the for nitrogen year. million were nitrogen significantly, Chinese one in metric competitors X looks your segment you this at potentially favorable nearly said in a of your to that only of earlier this million as being viewing presentation, the they're most

getting prices in enough to of So I well expectations? of cost factors numbers global be your the what you're point cause to curve to demand nitrogen might rising guess your and sort are you and think that the that light the that

Yes.

Europe spring strong it's tight the for a So of there's in quite and think by have the that agree the half. the the steeper I nitrogen nitrogen mentioned would I've but we're positive, monitoring. backdrop the book. that to very world. outlook, is it we a cost curve our of around going season seeing certainly first also certainly order other world. in barometers we're question driven a is And parts kind that And other no in supply/demand And

I have is ourselves season. that from what the XXXX after happens the start deferred to new that think to we in fundamental capacity that is expect was some spring XXXX. There question we up ask do

a are jurisdictions there start-up. Now in have rocky of a bit normally that

we So XXXX, months need new when things think quarters. Those think capacity much isn't an How But capacity. that past from as we overall understand there after or nitrogen lot produce? come to that, do they we are beyond several supply/demand this new agree that would that all the online? I through they a of online, if do get next we comes

we view, that in expecting the So is that good season. is difference I in if difference spring are view think a there a

quite are last think And we've new could million term, We year you some XXXX. have expect half are the nitrogen. year, in we supply/demand I nutrient at that's which and longer year capital, brownfield expansions, reset supply constructive in the the second why effect. of But supply-demand this and X if middle because that's of adding overall of about and for And the nitrogen. a tonnes in look fundamentals how capacity on allocated the several between we're strong

Your comes next Raymond the from Hansen of line James. Steve question from

sales thus exceeding just just opening is acres. in sense $X opposed some a players expectations reference the point customers for wanted I The that's that your for about color and in And possible from just around of the are sense target you rate to there have that? actually think don't as you've of the penetration, lot seen digital digital talk course, confident you give for your I a are this believe. of today? outlined I how us using a here from of XX% and some super get billion a customers to value? A actually of relevant. space, how platform just remarks to get this number to the at year. clearly it rollout made far standpoint, is with Chuck, penetration strategy But to a trying also you've many other the peers dollar your to the lot

Yes.

year. way some have the we So deal Steve, accurate. of question phrased I But think. in with in is like to are absolutely with available, then And data the COVID progress it offline, we this of pleased with you $X some to expecting platform, the $X.X have and platform. restrictions said, we be We're billion But coming the billion the to with very have year mobility. probably I digital the helped last orders honest very through the generally, of

growth. have also we good customers digitally the get continued now XX% And we is of an we're And And are that a what do is digitally we in our So really you is see churn of finding that we actually, in rate nondigital digitally active, is some us customers. that get are that And are double we'll customers seeing from actually customers customers. that And with which expect customers active to less. that increase active, share revenue percentage to data from wallet. interesting. we're XX% have the have improvement in actually XXXX. online to payments, double But do the of quite

about we're very are we're pretty out both these you rolling our XXXX, all our that So the good for for if offering. that value-adding for us. look customers, indicators at And them program and is in the program excited

we're platform. of to So even to the going our products add more

really get the basically now can crops. call can their with of farm. the we're each field plan model now us, services contract then in right Growers to and digital the create even a which can to and their plan and the digital for an for field planning away, of our fields is we And their they take of a on go products I So exciting. platform. a it products online. working entire e-commerce they contract on digital that percentage order rolled capability, And still out

quite with of planning experience be to reason very the finance get that just another getting that commercial we then January, we're large, that, now we good strong the engaged connection digital digitally positive, And programs set and will of of platform in capability our the our the to from process to feedback kind a really digitally beginning pilot is right active customers. Nutrien growers. the So Nutrien. and Nutrien the on for goes with tied And think in

we're think exact we're of is investment, hear is journey getting you the they up the quite to have on with follow more I have on those to it, numbers. more our positive. fingertips. about And customers my I more on the platform. trying We'll feedback don't the So on as drive up

comes line Oxgaard Your from from of next Jonas the question Bernstein.

the -- it 'XX the every strength commentary. outside looks seems of more forecasting forecast, of your are given over your surprising flat you and the at ag or other Looking which for like practically environment region, 'XX, less potash Asia,

I question could the you reflect well, X-part we So see is like what put more here? strong the and guess fall volume And application took the that than there some think 'XX the is variability does ground? your the it -- first, of here? Is already do b, in a projections the

Yes.

backdrop, tonnes. of to volumes the actually we're we maybe the market we'll follow Nutrien global but going look region. be demand to demand will of a each have that. -- regions seeing macro so So you Hopefully, perspective you're and the I detail why a that, part of of kind from of a million quick the just to that get thinking, that's can. don't look look, the a are we'll Ken, is think, that look, help But if at bit have And then couple you and here. at up what into expect you understand

ahead. Ken, So go

things XXXX. thanks seen Yes. several X And at in we Jonas, in staring across is, the fact, for I Yes, the have of regions globe the and in shipments guess we're consumption question. record that

record more consumed. in million million than million record. of so previous of million starting ever global at China was XX.X XX.X That's tonnes. tonnes tonnes. XXXX. And up Brazil is they've XX from That's XX.X demand the point actually mean I tonne sort was

X it record So million maybe from X there, as grow the expecting or million And Chuck to starting point demand. tonnes. said, global is already we're

on to to that million the of growth and of record we're XXXX. the expecting million X-year again, this or we there, on that a expect India, described tonne be while demand year. growth And earlier tonne expecting North it We've we at demand saw of for this -- So of saw Indonesia Jason X.X China, And look demand the 'XX talked about top demand X sort demand sort Newton from strong that's ranges, when XX, all we're average. North in which reasons range, America. go to strong a is million X Malaysia, said in we We in up America. call. we're to earlier, as expecting record in in bit I and

are in that we those Again, a when you record big demand all XXXX. growth and very XXXX, on we're regions up, strong building so And into serve. it the further global add expecting

from comes Your of next question from Securities. the line Tupholme Michael TD

about tonnes million of Investor at X.X% provided that expectation or an XXX you global your demand up XXXX At year-over-year late in November, Day point. for nitrogen

Just global wondering if that still have nitrogen if Or for any expectations holds views on you demand true. year? this updated

Newton ahead, Jason Go Michael, Okay. can question. that answer Jason.

Michael, we'd the demand XXXX. expect growth in with that's to in where be line

stronger. ended we little where in were XXXX I think a versus probably up November bit

still base X.X% it's XXXX, so from stronger And in growth XXXX. but a in

Operator, hour this. there's coming we another call and here, the we're know after up to

everybody So we us thank for today. joining

is Relations available. so thank you. And -- any Investor got you've we If questions,

joining. That Thank today's you, conference everybody, call. concludes for

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