Nutrien (NTR) 17 Feb 222021 Q4 Earnings call transcript

Greetings and welcome to Nutrien’s Fourth Quarter Earnings Call – 2021 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Holzman, VP of Investor Relations.

Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to Nutrien’s fourth quarter 2021 conference call.

call, and that prospects this future make conduct plans expectations, contain we various we statements about As forward-looking information. were assumptions forecasts. material applied these making Certain conclusions in and our materially Therefore, could from forward-looking information. those actual differ contained results in

over Additional turn most our shareholders quarterly Ken in and are U.S. to current with report, annual Commissions. these the MD&A information will as information report Securities before our Canadian CFO, President form factors filed we about Interim well assumptions and contained questions. Farah, and your Pedro as call for recent to now and comments I opening Seitz, annual take and CEO our

truly outlook we long-term shareholders. morning Good over company call. forward impacts the our continued Jeff. superior for change. I challenges navigate our through are XXXX for Thanks, of to chain value in deliver heightened extraordinary supply look was our world recapping the the and year the and to food XXXX security pandemic, disruptions, positioning welcome quarter business to to the how as Nutrien’s related fourth to climate an earnings results, COVID-XX and global XXXX concerns

heartfelt commitment communities colleagues and thank or our the life-altering safety we in your deliver Nutrien with all proud and of on a Our past a this year challenges demonstrated our XXXX no our that we that Nutrien the you, of care report to fatalities best well-being solutions today, positively strong performance address To all-time at has these that and safety our stakeholders. culture impact operate. performance live meaningful am injuries. listening sustainable benefit can I an achieved employees and to where of all

robust underpinned generated financial of Now, was flow earnings nearly in outlook, market of fundamentals. model billion. EBITDA our cash the core XXXX results than from we strong delivered our and doubled teams, record adjusted strong of to turning and This our EBITDA activities more Nutrien integrated performance operating of growth $X.X of the by $X.X execution Solutions each business billion with competitive Ag in our benefit geographies. advantages of to adjusted billion, our and $X.X

to continued digital the of grower and chain, sustainability delivery reliability products, supply our with relationship innovative through direct the of strengthen capabilities We our expanded solutions.

to in ability in billion. was growth XXXX. these each deliver major to by on our increased XXXX Our our from exceeds now proprietary of margin a and $X organic than strategic XX% products Gross more contributor robust initiatives

and global business solutions support fertilizer to retail for and of conditions network. Our of strength digital our to platform our long-term sustainable reached delivery sales the market record building North our sold American we tools favorable the digital agronomy billion volumes due out customers. are agriculture $X.X

We our retail completion the network also expanded acquisitions. of XX through

North next growing outside retail and reside earnings our U.S. over diversify grow will to a business the to expect one-third that Brazil. More than focus our of now we earnings share outside the continue on X continue We in with America of years. our of

We Coast volumes. terminals in available reliable $X.X in prices capacity. which projects sales the to ensuring supply by strength and production to We on X the American was our increase budget. marine of potash projects distribution of sites. to tons, during system team several In X delivered to increased includes nitrogen our X our the we of to as ability West nearly and large adjusted We a billion small million generated the several of the brownfield enhance access critical the higher North low-cost year of projects these EBITDA a by launch of customers. and volumes X business. and expansions, the assets. and Canpotex’s our utilized offshore The progressed advantaged expansion at emissions nitrogen of $X.X safely of domestic supported Nitrogen business well adjusted Phase realized Phase that East potash brownfield higher of our This supported nitrogen, record cost on plant by growth delivering low and and market portion sustainability efficiently of our billion, Our production initiatives as two and long-term EBITDA represents our completed position GHG prices will on reduction turnarounds time

of team on our improved capitalized record $XXX phosphate, fundamentals EBITDA in deliver market to Finally, adjusted million.

flexibility increase phosphate business margin improving to and the maximize free is of higher of and industrial flow the to by premium of the cash Our in volumes the plans of focus our products. operations leverage reliability our fertilizer

average global Brazil new returns to generated input outlook, markets. cash Australia business continues prices XXXX, per are very supply in In XX% of the timing well soybean and prices. supplies to rising key and margins expect average the crop month these support the Prospective environment. historical increased to oilseed which for grower margins due crop in we our to fertilizer corn over XX% the support global U.S., and and above will the by above current a corn XX-year uncertainties. price below crop on are be projected past Turning XX% to procurement in retail this futures. to U.S. crops based In grain levels strong due are demand also ton

margins pull earnings. a assumes fertilizer fall to EBITDA some forward commodity more adjusted season had strong this led retail application anticipate return and average and volume guidance XXXX. We in very to fertilizer historical of Our a

We particularly and expect our seed crop product margins protection remain growth Brazil. strong anticipate nutritional will business, and our specialty in in

we respond our opportunity in to for potash in in market mines and utilize network again see world-class strategy XXXX. growth conditions changes significant to is X of Our to

at demand some XX.X Latin incurring ship occur small America first and Nutrien increase in million to more capability capital per Belarus impact to strength and significant fully were and expenditures. volumes Canpotex through long-term on in Earlier we ton, XX.X to Asia. December. We customers between signed a expect the with incremental new production If impact, additional $XXX record tons, Southeast also sanctions customers supply. to in committed week, on million expected assuming Canpotex April shipments to to potash China the is hiring the has temporary have through this from with see India by employees quarter contracts due further

levels Our fundamentals, in book reflects granular strength is nitrogen, potash first a current closed The in few in domestic recently short grade we increase announced now the nitrogen entered the second quarter. XXXX. order high product. for have particular increase plant Chinese per support export the expect prices risks energy year deliveries $XX quarter. and global prices first for the will incurred In a in outages market and in quarter for We relatively low we inventory geopolitical global heightened and restrictions ton the with

However, will due year will operating the over rates. it we to turn full allocation increase I our volumes sales expect of expansion Borger to to higher capital and review completion now project Pedro? our Pedro XXXX our in priorities.

Thank you, Ken.

are in is sales volumes midpoint As an represents businesses. to adjusted nitrogen. a Ken and given fundamentals just our ability prices utilize XXXX. potash company, guided the higher the setup growth XXXX to our at XX% the billion year an of in and EBITDA to the to of expected earnings our advantages in market We which increase this of to for billion, The be record selling from $XX existing key each drivers and strength excellent $XX.X we competitive of highlighted, have the increase capacity

key trends retail lower in in to fertilizer XXXX QX, expected to the be are commodity underlying forward due Although normalization pull earnings the margins for still business are financial strong. some in of the very and metrics

the cash significant in ratio guidance provided presentation generate of range adjusted operating this of earnings have cash Based $X.X and increase billion a of substantial capital scenario and billion year We on expect we posted allocation activities provided opportunity in advance a this illustrates to conversion our operating year. EBITDA a potential our website. $X.X approximately by have flow XX%, our priorities scenario the we XXXX. opportunity our this This on to to have

inflation at billion, and the the by expect long-term that debt we pandemic nominal of the to our in further. during expect billion need the of and over We capital year, nitrogen $X.X past range expenditures were to reflects prioritization sustaining impacts reduced the reduce which the of of $X.X deferred any sites. billion, not debt some end-of-life do assets replacement $X.X we In projects XXXX,

positioned very sheet take of opportunities the well through is cycle. to now balance advantage Our value-enhancing

expected embarked expanding retail In tons cost, to and on rapidly agriculture our production Brazil, particular, In proprietary growth of X.X fragmented capacity The network of expanding markets, targeted business terms additional total growth in plan we Brazilian capital, that have for an opportunity well-defined opportunities expansion of a in set efficient our is product investment that growing digital due X core a its other of market, nitrogen, for provides significant Phase tuck-in capabilities. our million. brownfield $XXX enhancing have acquisitions we a retail include to a add low environmentally million structure. and in

evaluating in of and hydrogen are XX% million X and eliminating our in projects also XXXX. that at by are the $XX Scope increase options of We approved production low-carbon have to X approximately ammonia aimed current emissions

And investments unmatched. small increase make production us for would that potash existing capacity. global Our annual expect development underground to enable equipment we from is mine position to and

to our with enhance investments and We autonomous will power, that XXXX in increase self-generated efficiency we attractive and to returns. billion businesses expect potash moderate In projects investment approximately projected allocate $X to across of mining are total, sites. technologies making other safety the our

Nutrien to XXXX dividends address in repurchases, distributions. shareholder I Lastly, would Since share billion and $X shareholders billion allocated through including return $X.X alone. has XXXX,

to X% Directors ability distribute the Board difficult and through demonstrated XXXX minimum stable and the and to $X share market common to pay share dividend a We of the of the repurchases. of cadence balanced $X.XX have dividend cash in a a the share our throughout approved purchase a year. Yesterday, billion conditions XX% Nutrien’s under to to a quarterly plan on repurchases most We in shares allocate excess X-year the increase up per period. growing over of

capital strength we beyond I for just the there cash outlined. our projected of opportunities flow, be Given allocated a believe potential the is additional to

the value-enhancing Ken. evaluate to I shareholders it for will pass an this update back We provide year our to uses and most will the And progresses. cash now as

Pedro. Thanks,

stronger. we remain industry XXXX are few with on has Global and the our bring for been prices and nitrogen comments key entered company of supportive we additional Just capability levels get your our to final historical grain a the and We oilseed prices demand The questions. products never well higher and regions in before inventories crop volumes. where our outlook significantly operate. below for and potash to

our plans will key all the value well-defined advancing for have on focused is the business strategic for priorities team each of long-term leadership and We that executive maximize stakeholders.

that team, organization to joined results in highly the have an their in confident I deliver again once members throughout helped extremely group to take We I talented of your and occasion by am our rise of leadership employees ability in would XXXX, am happy we be to and record the to today questions. XXXX.

Please [Operator BMO. line question. Instructions] Your of Joel from proceed come with will with Jackson your question the first

Hi, a good I the Belarus is fluid, this. of on quite morning, couple issue everyone. BPC questions have Obviously,

to can’t market the restriction market balance imagine is second that market in goes take rise years need to see the and if unless want, significant million year sitting it’s do? sales millions an number prices they to demand the down. month, you to to that potash have the now. structure tons will the X do ramp, their what can a nobody Belarus because in and you small you What what, to tons trouble, has idle demand balance you extended to or do think you hire bunch spend do is right fraction of do longer have of induce to think And can’t going to BPC the are going X and do miners of on I a that. the bring part Like you a because So X is probably to of conclude they investment months,

decision the say extra it nowhere making fair tons? to is those near bring back So to you’re really

the quite Belarus in Great. And Well, question, thanks we’re for situation watching the Joel. closely.

taking suggesting into and of XXXX. say worth guiding We’re in million what’s And that. to potash shipments – happening we’re Belarus XX that when XX tons account million in is we

access difficulties it BPC east. with Lithuania, difficult had finding For we also get anticipated to to of be tidewater sort obviously that rail would then our even access port for other to difficulties and getting through part, and the

XX do, supply. this prices at at could and on tons million will will how by your looking we’re to be uncertainty well, actual of this all around the market what top with capped wondering So In availability last? question XX of about the shipments anything, long the that if meantime, the end it, million

additional yes, pressure And see some pricing. we could so on

always Of additional is at the Canpotex China see? pricing. could So for it concluded we and pressure to the our calling We’ve but average additional have when India course, the true we do ability on X% annual for on planned In what and to per our for it. contracts growth production brownfields tons our part, market $XXX talked with XX X.X% ton, capability meantime, capacity about we of see bring is existing million some to need rates.

which an into XXXX. say, people the opportunity to order as put we’re volume. tons increase In the from to we’re up in us at our top to this world. million the year part certainly, of capacity putting need prolonged addition machines we’re see meantime, end, hiring also X.X investments market. say, Belarusian And additional should exactly an situation, opening ground, XX.X And customers more make challenges material So faces flex on to would more for is need in it’s guiding Joel. we and that, looking the you In mining for some and that million at to those I’ll at the preserving

and prolonged again, term, make need in longer the challenges investments the of to in order Belarus up investments. would the order hiring in For make to Joel, to ground those need we some opening see would we in people, see to

of come with Please with Jacob Your from CIBC. proceed next question question. line your will the Bout

– some granularity for further XXXX. the some Have Good on for guidance looking retail morning.

are lesser you for from in EBITDA year-on-year. looking then M&A targets, year-on-year Can going versus feel to well guiding bit half? look And sales, down we extent, a your sales, How and and when You’re organic are? in assumptions a at be was big particular, when is guess, products proprietary of targets about proprietary surprised it talk at to pull-forward And first XX%. down to what I that quarter, growth that the first lower I we’re digital I actually XXXX was effect? XXXX

Thanks, Great. Jacob.

strong identified did. some they So have We prices fertilizer XXXX the parts there. escalating fall you that meaningful margins I way season. think moving in did had with application the fertilizer We very a

So some Tarsi carry more to I’ll there was significant to we through to into market XXXX. also But intend to QX, it but share had hand forward some we color. pull over Jeff gains that provide

supply strong And Yes, to on fall needed look, that obviously, of occur with that and we’ve might things we a we and I the strong mention very Jacob. had constraints really seen the marketplace. fall, fall that chain strong some in

have of fertilizer margins were year on that our able efficiencies capabilities up, ton network And sets obviously, think we we for per we like take last were advantage the to to planting season we early up the fall that. had. that And about that. happy were spring and it it as and really quite things us strategic We our and storage so relates spring

healthy normal I built If at are And see were into fertilizer ‘XX, from see be in if we those organic that’s got in got products. build I they we’ve a have share built fertilizer we our commodity Ken standpoint, built margins we in our up anywhere really actually we’ve margin – three shelves business And share ‘XX plan market to into organic keep that just EBITDA a on one I’ll our share very back. look, well don’t In and we a for we’ve just ‘XX in it nutritional going But ‘XX. We organic pretty all on from And to made were we at return by grew point more actually of ‘XX. of gains. the And focus So think growth ‘XX of those proprietary margins in growth, from We plan. will margins that for our in of out We XXXX. our business. growth will a seed And our something a to ‘XX. standpoint. up million plan shift together. perspective, proprietary increases for look certainly XX% those a pretty for look that we to expand from growth. basis other grew to organic what $XX ago, mentioned XX% will continue across plan as rely expect as above margins business. they in got over will we of seed our thing heavily our our have just minute margin amazing organic

your So I that questions. answers hope

line your Mizuho. question next with with proceed Christopher Please from will question. Parkinson Your come the of

Great. Thank you very much.

potash – incredibly should Allan, thinking to on cost could cost near the in be Just current Cory, line? we already generally Cory, ton intermediate outlook? of guidance? embedded outlook? And about potentially And the what you how Joel’s would how much. about given Rocanville say, the be of again. full the so operates and healthy getting kind will change land circle characterization thinking things the the BPC benefit noticeable that But you’re if the be outlook, back question, term of be just we per we to assuming your characterization if should from what to demand let’s the us would advanced I’m with to Thank plan be about the

– per has bit. few Thanks, a foreign Yes, a Chris. against with to pressures experiencing there mean, us Obviously, ton, at Great. is I exchange respect moment. cash we’re cost the worked

XX.X in XXXX With have and there we additional bring our preserving But for say XXXX, supply say see we are of gap given I that our experiencing in pressures. should in persist. those on make per material the if with where respect we again, able also pressures million ability volume we’re said, that ‘XX. wouldn’t if that capacity that events tons, We’re potash it, also higher to on plans created paying to would some be calling an cash again, were we a is sustained expect above to bring And are that we’re inflationary royalties potash million in ‘XX ton guiding tons gone, if have that, these to for in to I’ll up changes prices I’ll our XX.X don’t able the cost you increased – some and volumes customers million so another just say to market I situation. that X.X by side Belarusian to maybe

will Scotiabank. question with the next line your Your Ben come question. Isaacson from of proceed Please with

Thank much everyone. and very you morning, good

months Just you question said hear XXXX was another from sold you X potash to weeks sold little of end a QX. for maybe Canpotex to anywhere I say demand. two-parter. has of Most like to felt it a or X.X you, just that I Canpotex strong ahead the to surprised due think Ken, X out out ahead was

the this prolonged especially money of Can would incremental question My mentioned more the you you So that, respect about of plan. million years. you’ve of of second expansion part issues but been is to would the would going there you out just on have like a Yet elaborate potash investing now Belarus, a incremental is for this demand doesn’t have potash you tons is, the issues development. sound first as thought question see and sorry, cash that? talking that have spring? the that’s I’m in start I you is a it of in accelerated part sign X you of starting, that we’re number on for disruption order into to Belarus with

for Ben. bet, the you question. Yes, Thanks

go The related is and sign actually key offshore are strong Again, wouldn’t the just we destruction. grower definitely first to just levels to low demand the sentiments where out and well. inventory I as if where margins we So a in every regions quarter region we in of really sell region, operate about strong. region commitments demand are that through are this say

demand for palm Asia, we has this sort really oil big certainly commitment, fall go market Southeast prices, so sorry, first so we – seeing market, very season. granular U.S., to Southeast record the strong so where And and and product in the again, oil market we’re product been to of has very year had palm the a in standard-grade Then meaningful strong strong standard-great incredibly prices so to quarter Canpotex Asia. turning application

into here compared supply. small in then So again, – up in the XXXX, inventories record while very and to growth strong in to Brazil, shore in again the the now where – spring growth growers we’re the inventory demand in little looking U.S. grown are And bit demand market. anticipating it’s have Brazil, overall to and is the a looking XXXX

no, looking seeing so shore And at up supply, the to stage, we are so this not disruption. grower Brazilian also demand

In fact, margins grower are strong.

our say, up which and we a Ben, have production, approach Your this. we is very increase When go X to to want ground, about just just question take we open million to pragmatic tons, I’d expensive.

We have to install infrastructure.

have have ground We to that comes We if ground. that off. maintain still maintain to demand

have We hire to people.

We have mining to at put faces. machines

up so tons. in XX.X to million million and XX.X can way XX – absolutely ramp planned And thoughtful a from

So we all to we a be faced costs. left basis side but going don’t way issues up pragmatic with quickly, to supply these go on ramp the want it because away then we’re if do that very in can

production a the we’re on going way that’s in So bring planful way, and do can we it. to

from question Please Your Morgan come proceed with Andrews line with Vincent will the Stanley. your question. next of

and you good and how specifically, in little could Thank you shape thinking half, of the a how everyone. if nitrogen morning, of on the maybe particular, the maybe give year are for and some Wondering baked into cost year about the you assumptions guidance you’re curve energy more or the it? your second that see color more

Vincent. Thanks, Great. Yes.

the more drop color. Sully I’ll as Raef over to in well. nitrogen that supply-side strong provide events a hand But it’s in ag again, fundamentals So to

Thanks, Vincent.

year, the then, not very been in with growing build have just we X and ammonia overall of to million so something – Supply at and we a supply underlying and shut-ins X the million And an worse, market some has led perspective prices demand additional and spike start there like me let rate. same at out to saw to tons make market. of situation. look, demand That is gas production So Europe course, tight the in that matters that seen a tight.

– rest year. would we forward, the of for $XX going puts the for similarly, I floor forecast Urea above of and think under Now situation. but very ammonia forward. think demand That, Europe prices gas course, global in the the tight supply remain going

We’re X.X year seeing restrictions exports from was on the million be tons in that won’t last that China about market this year.

We’re grow in strong India, seeing North America. demand increased good demand, economics in

So I again, $X.XX I prices North similar advantage a North tight that America, see in picture. $X.XX providing What U.S. in to – think above be market gas see Europe, would gas we of suggest sorry, will position. the range in will that $XX. America good In in very us is very we pricing

to normally So really point. is. see a is out summer there’ll I think There than good door. we lull that be at throughout going It’s overall, reset some hard in think get a strong the We product do the in demand pricing be year. to

got think, So performing be will the we’ve and minute. for see higher at reset. year we in And we overall, see last this better year, overall, some we strong good there we see second some the forecast average pricing out business than the nitrogen pricing will continue will half. the will But and pricing

it’s good think to year I going be us. strong for a

your line with America. of Steve the from Byrne with of question proceed Bank will next question. come Please Your

rates. business? for your have this returns into forecast hoping was rates to that items. I you’d and from be intentions, acreage. from Nutrien application increased increase I much economic business was that visibility based on your if for U.S. for either expect application you Or then you. corn farmer trimming analysis? more orders has a spring? you pending is two One retail own calculations rate And orders from seed that would application maybe variable that some sampling, your for soybean the based by a forecast or have soul wondering your service on Thank visibility other Yes. Do Is on retail that you item of would be share

Thank Steve. Great. you,

question of Tarsi, your Head second Retail Retail Head So and the our over first of I’ll then then our for Chief to pass Jeff to Newton, Interim question. Jason over Economist, and

Jeff? So

Steve, in morning, and questions part. these Good take Yes. I’ll

the As we to of would no Steve, in this fourth quarter. the saw particularly belt. I pullback off would – it and And across as relates were application we very we base rates, areas those obviously, dependent on well certainly yields the what today on what And you the saw removed fall corn rates, and that know, that rates in how of of a year. had size and lot we was on P&K crop much based are most last strong

their saw done was went And with so they years. growers like this growers last in – what we right programs follow have over the X X or

soil number were X%. I with between and soil a very X% some soil the day If look of testing year-over-year ran there up – is of somewhere up Analytical tests Waypoint numbers our at testing, that out were strong. other to tests I and As number it total looked relates soil at through

that off in you ‘XX. at year came And remember that, to strong an extremely so and – got

that applications machinery to anymore. that seen blanket And exist rate variable days don’t our really direction that. a strongly years. continue relates much And in in capacity. look, rate I see applications rate, or XX we really date From set last a that that increase over the it to and of rate. the lot as standpoint So we up move some those didn’t to this to XX that will make is this think well in spring more for The just we’ve as fall of see get testing variable run

some we information that doing, to we’re go acres any rates and and today take testing of in back have to go build map prescriptions, slingshot we individual and platform able soil we’re digital the to fields. and as have off we Our the an able our to across that that those be it and of specifically applicator those tools vary

seeing about optimistic very we’re we’re there. So what

then new digital Jason We agronomists of our this that our to we Steve, like. summer, last it prescription to lot tool and precision book to them to little base And even a fill and what We’re movement. us capabilities and and But give same. optimistic information our let Echelon plans agriculture, more. basically with growers we corn that on standpoint, release From allow flat seeds a looks maximize our more sit a To is crop just ROI. year, our in seed growers looks going real-time these which as yes, with late September. last bit as started see in it help soy relates I’ll to we’re don’t looked them will we me year X.X, for what date, like the off book expand of more

a I you that’s bit and we’re crop slower of So at we’ve process that booked come we don’t to don’t got Jason, what to have where prevalent in if been in into decisions looking see what will be that today, probably know comes just a little more and if movement, lot some options something they they so that? add and make well obviously, want we’re have the many South, because movement to it area.

margins of crops. we’re million seed assumptions for and and the run know are then so I’d acreage And looking million million, from and intelligence make corn to a we our also his that off at corn, the an look the acres crop needed acreage XX combination economics XX and what’s million and helped And robust. for of analysis, acres No, just basing and the growing both at prospective acreage And SMBs of soybeans today we’re on soybeans. strong XX give expect of standpoint. economic to market range XX really competition have more to economics for Jeff forecast the really to on by sales that to get the in team fortunate historically high, range

proven market. strong around booking I leave our strong and because we’ve are a the out with varieties to Canada very seen Dyna-Gro in And Canadian the our corn And don’t well. market the our same want on soybeans and as important in very U.S. and seed canola fundamentals receipt,

with Zekauskas Jeff from the will Your question. JPMorgan. of with Please come next your proceed question line

Murmansk as colleague Thanks of you out What ability very any of have or of customers? or much. Have cargoes water the as about Do on see inquiries you much see? of from know you you their you that ship any normally Belarusian any customers to of typical commitments? Russia? Belarus gone product do think in received Do would out the

production, which Yes. clear And of Thanks, there there, Russia. St. that. but of I Petersburg the we’ve lot Jeff. say at we’ve that already Belarusian think the of of Port again of St. closely. further it’s is up as from Murmansk, kilometers at – at looked port that it’s lot And north sort the And a to broke that though a of that is I’ll closest, the very Petersburg. is looked which then closely always Port I a well. think importing and as But capacity I X,XXX There product not just missed port. one challenge

a to is track East, China. relative to is – that then and but track, kilometers So X,XXX long very there

very so limited access And BPC tidewater that. about at in And think is it customers BPC absolutely I’m traditional working less moment. on that market, moment. to seeing some had we to we’re With volumes. have the options case also that are BPC seeing volumes sure the hard the it the we at they inquiring is the case respect are And what for we’re the getting shipping

Your from your next come line Hello, of your question Adam with is line from will Goldman. Please Adam, the question. proceed open.

at time. end this from your may You unmute

on from We Please proceed P.J. question in queue your will move with with Citi. question. Juvekar

why production aggressively of to waiting I mean, inventories. the for kind that you’ve this to morning. don’t ramp of more low Belarus excess grain situation up take wondering Yes. not your Hi, Higher advantage situation. potash carrying production been for I you good capacity. your if process, was decades, years,

a you Thank just So you about faster wouldn’t in bit on capacity little you. this bring potash? can why talk

million building Great. trying off and with ramping into million that over we say XX.X did XXXX additional to Thanks, our long customers. I line the capacity we’re walk product how that of above we’re additional suggest doing tons. What again, pragmatic are practical P.J. cost and left the capacity. and of in our may the preserving our and curve I at costs. and moment, now we million Again, tons again this up XXXX, and to XX.X managing X this Belarusian on then market the a very to situation and staying and this And to getting important, that in watching here it last always do,

And people, go side up so I maintaining near-term opening those to avoid and potentially ground that get infrastructure, for church all some because trying of trying to costs. strike to Sunday these stuck it’s say building supply would only away, balance. with hiring see I’ll And again, Easter that events say we’re

So trying to take. we’re that’s the approach practical

Your Michael line from next the Inc. TD question. proceed of with with question your please will Securities, come Tupholme

add you do question of production, tons last potash more also function, a regarding Phase based tons production business, you of about And and you the on the that? the as lines, to follow-on to both nitrogen talk and on Related expected can then the timing just you same capacity significant incremental ramp Thanks. also terms along decide flex quickly then anything in X up how can the beyond answer, that talk can of expansions? XXX,XXX about if XXX,XXX

second year. hire Good. open our near-term in of Yes. the watch top million we’re that, preserving of should million tons tons these people, And is in it we on XX.X nitrogen. of sort and think looking as hand events of at guiding after now I we for end for the ballpark can as, an mine market that to as with watch side this we how But more X.X of is potash that’s sort up terms pacing, what additional ground, respect supply think bring making volume. could again, it least some to over about half some capital expenditures to Raef unfold in we we the Again, of that as again, customers decisions, development, are these increments today are

Sorry.

finished was rates. nitrogen last higher the X it the component of major projects. to The expansions, operating I It’s that in think September. Phase we our relation was have in mentioned, now Just Borger, which at finished was

this expansions. we So, be first year benefits the the X Phase those of full see year should brownfield

projects of last it period should The of a second The ‘XX. bulk but X-year and be will for be completion ‘XX, the will has project finished by phase started be ‘XX. ‘XX, in ‘XX

and to on gradually, as those of UAN bring supply well good urea a those as just additional ammonia the it’s we mix So, downstream products.

Samuelson Your of Sachs. your with next question question. come from Adam line will with proceed Please Goldman the

alternative the morning Hi. realize? cash just ratably to it really about at just will question like larger really and dictate to what is flow give least is question to major XX% kind capital have EBITDA about upside? year – M&A this of of allocation be that. you a of line coming looks think allocation. or Yes. And get would $X to the trying I where about billion to of I there does new the that help in that guess sight the Thank wings, Is the year you committed implied that authorization shares. pipeline I some you sense a potentially of come upside cash – of am this things beyond just think trying some through? would waiting buyback kind my on you. how sorry and am uses Good of Can capital everyone. by the us

I Great. question. over it to Yes. will for Pedro. Thanks pass the

the of view not a position, but Okay. only of from cash are this I question. Yes, think also in of cash conversion thanks Adam, for strong generation, we year. kind EBITDA a very point

this Our buyback at and the are it’s course, and are going billion be we cash those in fairly confident, balancing of the conversion of time think first to we like over on $X time XX% and has we share year. the point throughout fluctuated

reason forecast, committed In throughout started billion, frankly, to kind $X and since additional there things the why we India the actually that, when here. that some that. did we We the we few year. those up are to to geopolitical this the firmed that of we and of doing be respect going market, in the the contracts doing And that’s specifically have a was risks China

us makes our on for more it even the guidance year. confident So,

see of options throughout billion, year, In will opportunities So, – should billion we And allocate do we will investments $X of be we course, that have to are materialize that how option share And project. we the not attractive is have some year utilize going to projects also retail, $X throughout in as year. that that to very we low the for specific, able distribute we of the those shareholders not much we we to an but as will And some we But but this buybacks is as carbon ammonia try the there to develops. evaluation that to are additional always we cash are this as top year, for evaluating a evaluate we we historically. some seeing should the intent possible there. And have the of overlay cash, of hoard done therefore, on our additional that. have have.

additional behind what’s we with and to cash X%. other X% we that committing NCIB additional that’s have, for the an So, X% because the be flow are that used will

UBS. with next line with proceed question. Roberts Please John the question your will from come Your of

whether on lower are, than global or your Thanks. on could ratios On nitrogen XX, ratio, on higher Slide what Welcome, yields? Ken, you luck. constrain us crop think stocks-to-use view they and you U.S.? North America the do are global And good stocks-to-use the give outside constraints could the

John. Great. Thank you,

I over Economist, first to on then So, to the question. pass will Newton, question Chief our nitrogen the Raef Jason and

Yes. Good John. morning

around As of since at you level the lowest the are ratio, as China, we really they they the world actually, outside are grain stocks-to-use look if XXXX. well. at look at tight And stocks

historically tight. really So,

and we with Southern given and know Northern soybean in we Argentina there having struggles already crops As production. know, and Brazil are is hemispheres, seasons, growing multiple

going to will are supportive are oil the to at as major So, currently forward there supply we standards. is challenges Whether and across wheat production board, balance crops, tight that forward. growing palm maintaining soybeans, year, really the or coming or by historical balances major we with be look tight supply-demand regions looking already across a corn

from of length there. the little the lot North I part the quickly see question be will it. distribution There a am Look, any how destruction bit a of perspective. concerned and season starts and think depends So, for we second transportation with the may on I was demand America, a example. constraints tightens

it globally, to be a don’t it tightness to if constraints think will we get underlying able at good and there. supply distribution, an But of most be of because transportation I previous most there any think the need. to comments, was have they price, around I what in

proceed Your your come question. with of from next with Please Research. Cleveland the Michael line question will Piken

Yes. morning. Good

tuck-in built of both Just year. wanted sense a and this your retail your domestic off good lot is like internationally acquisitions in growth get it guidance retailers any where for in, environment pretty to a there of whether in just came and seems strategy the for kind

you, Thank Mike. Over to Jeff. you, Great.

Yes. know, in it. Sorry Michael. you – Good plan pretty have is we we filled of have right tuck-in Hi. do our about cycle morning And we top the we in for acquisitions just as are what are conservative now.

are still say judicious growth there us. So, as there I looking there, pipeline And in Brazil we we see bit Australia. obviously, that think is a a are area we when a will rich for those are to little is more well. I pipeline opportunities. pretty at continue opportunities and that Obviously,

necessarily as turn those wouldn’t we so tuck-in. And

in So, those acquisitions, we I the this to valuations are when those them. on put act on at look looking and at we them, opportunities again, primarily and North Australia. of America tuck-in And cycle there. We at opportunities careful the we and want where continue be am are I but look point to with

James. Your proceed with the line question. next of Raymond question will Hansen with come from your Steven Please

guys. morning Good Yes.

Just of end different tons a quick here. question on into the your allocation markets

LatAm. report, India at and Just China Southeast from a towards Asia Canpotex it away the the marked in show data year pretty shift and does last looking

new a You week. here this signed couple contracts got have of

got have some see So, also will the the I we BTC in could be created by normalization we but consider data, to that tons vacuum think that great.

of better we should past? about Thanks. tons versus forward going those the guess into I allocation is, the think the question So, the how use markets higher

Yes. Steven. question, No, great that. Thanks for

markets in I you can think can that return India to for contracts historical expect is the to China they of share market the settled major Canpotex serve. now you and expect each what of sort with

the Chinese around And America of third the have so They quarter about historically, XX%. then about been market. Brazilian they have of been the Indian North third market a market, a in about of and a

in standard again, with year, China will and among offshore more But contracts market these to more other that’s India. settled at going traditional grades XXXX, that allocation of so was the into those terms And last to true contracts, expect we is It with given below shares. that market, to well related settlements, markets, of again, you Canpotex true. diverting volumes can sort expect return markets,

the which with We have proceed line in final question. question from Tamagno come one queue, do with your of will time Adrien for Berenberg. Please

for my taking Thank morning. Good actually. Hello. questions. I you two have

First, voluntary be this perspective and just impact an projects, not might really coming chain take you growth see the country and actually under case sanction having not you. do this for handle because it farmer Belarus, able the we on in ammonia, they a be supply well be on that be of well on be to years, need the more not appetite actually the for you or its from think off? integrated pricing carbon capacity, And could to the its the sanctions able their domestically? you to growth not deliver to Thank currently or secondly, do low-carbon are than will see existing

Great. Thanks, Adrien, for the questions.

it some mean in But and term will additional we I yes, your I view. Newton respect volume the new volume pass Belarus, And for market to to with about over here Jason so question are in the XXXX. longer expecting

ramp produce or the they volume on much shipping, Sure. within to think the uncertain any in it’s of believe, in But will see within could Belarus. be up, ramping they with ramp-up whether I least And sanctions XXXX Good up project how we – how impact in the may the the on of morning systems. their slow one production actually further. expanding restricted them have at some allocated which did coming We Adrien. on their constraints can Belarus,

with may of sanctions bigger think sanctions on project. I the than a restrictions impact probably the their exports So, have and respect construction to

the ammonia Adrien, question, on to then And Raef. over Yes. low-carbon

Adrien. Thanks,

this watching we What’s used carefully. first us, So are substitution. look, to low-carbon the be place energy as see think all I an will that ammonia is will we apparent,

to that So, don’t vessel we And the lower for be we do sector I that power also the an powered. it. crops have there have carbon. generation access we as seen will need go agreement next will and good renewable our or you is time. that classified a see to countries think you for in will growing agriculture ammonia And some transportation. grow or And get think other driven think that in in be the signed that’s application by sources I over demand that, of

talked growing. I answer strong meantime, will is other about. in think demand see, So, the but today, we the from we those sources small that And

closing Alright. reached our end call the Q&A of back allotted have the I And session. would for turn to now time we over the remarks. like Holzman to for Jeff

Thank today. you for us joining

If a Investor you good have follow-up questions, to reach feel free to day. Have out Relations.

This concludes today’s participating. for conference Thank you call.

disconnect. may now You