The Progressive Corporation (PGR) 1 Nov 232023 Q3 Earnings call transcript

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's Third Quarter Investor Event. I'm Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations, and I will be moderator for today's event. The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website.

Although our quarterly Investor Relations events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60 minutes schedule for today's event for introductory comments by our CEO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. Introductory comments by our CEO were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we'll use the balance of the 60 minutes schedule for this event for live questions and answers with members of our leadership team.

this include in statements. discussions always, event forward-looking may As and expectations on subject that These materially events event. based during current those can to and discussed from actual uncertainties statements are and management's are today's differ risks to cause results many

Additional XXXX, uncertainties available where as the harbor our reports and annual introductory risks supplemented Relations pleased in comments. who the our year first, CEO, challenges be the and XX-K safe discussions some investors.progressive.com. To of to of will affecting find factors related for third documents via will to introduce kick XXXX, on by you Form for found those quarters second, statements at forward-looking I'm section ended information other discussions our concerning can today, Griffith, These risk is with report December of business, and face. statements Tricia? XX, Tricia XX-Q the our of off Investor us the website we our begin

are Good difficult a morning, second deliver in I ratio we weather facing headwinds, us calendar meant charge were today. battle quarter, uphill believed cost, we to We of made thank of a in joining steer the events end a on At strategy Rising development and our the year loss difficult were in adverse XX target, the catastrophic very our you combined to significant place. the and for decisions challenging delivering this the facing while uncertain who leaders time. Despite future. that business strategy. and through

better it we we easy, side. While properly, wouldn't knew we be other it we out come the if execute on that knew

in still the in suggest work to is is more working. results and our there future third uncertainty strategy our quarter do, much the While

third first Before quarter, discussing what happen. not did in discuss did let's the happen what

all quarter the company-wide only of first unfavorable First, points across year, unlike the of lines. saw X.X the third modest half development reserve

caused last by our fixing adjusted in coverages, fixing higher our first attorney in representation flattening As many in presentation the cost the tracks we to call, rates XXX. In steepening during half the and trends reserves severity group our our discussed some contrast in by higher third Florida first trends reserving including vehicle replacing in we loss quarter, in vehicles. saw for the half, and House Bill precipitated things,

also higher severity to pre-House now reserved the XXX We Bill lawsuits. we have believe for adequately related

Hawaii. Second, year. in of reinsurance were catastrophe quarter, the third half after in not points losses the We lower the total first X.X do homeowners in write than

the to catastrophe limited. After our reinsurance, of of fires path the And X XX Including of took months year. first more property lines. heart-wrenching devastating every quarter, third and was Commercial homeowners losses day. we and Lines earning our low. What rate XX had Hurricane now So Idalia the points were the rate in the exposure points relatively we our that with auto we a profitability. in those density actions we is than also quarter address the rate insured Maui in rate have taken third that to lower year-to-date while personal in in took trends effect quarter looked in of premium autos was X loss the this and destruction, and points on as third to positive of approximately Both in homes in the people that happen did was the path non-rate

our actions profitability help the targets. writing refine We continue to meet business to to the adjust we and are across non-rate portfolio

our results, is underwriting improved also higher the benefiting to net addition income interest rate from In environment.

recurring funds continue higher sustained basis investment year. same For rates, to higher expect points income is higher, months, investment XX% the higher growth. to With are adverse address we yield interest those to period portfolio increase on rates. Many we yields and mature XX to X the unit actions of as an securities reinvested impact our the with have took take first rates at than and is last profitability and lower continue interest

last down the a auto decrease self-imposed third we pullback prior expense the find pricing, quarterly ratio our we talked personal spend of at in the as quarter in in about contributed cohort XX% end manage compared to right media to second This seek and at acquisition in which compared through the is and were year combined the balance in length the to to quarter. our ratio a our apps reflection New of call. PIF

endeavor find marketing And profitability always, between spend. and balance right growth. We as new business to continue our the assess we to

not by personal While retention year-over-year. basis. auto, new the especially X PLE growth were with growth be our PIFs indicator plus written quarters premium up premium $X.X rates than net at up through rates billion. To on means PIF spectacular continues company-wide XX% applications Positive the was year-to-date XX% tight of put in shrank September, X our growth growth auto year-over-year first our actions, robust premium higher the is occurred carrier, Through still we are underwriting, We or in on our amazing competitive X higher we added strong. in insurance to XX% was a we've our statistic. retention, year trailing personal competitors that perspective, equivalent many created declaring in X, the marketplace. Despite Despite robust premium top ago reflected an personal the that profitability believe very year-over-year successes a is face of the which measure quarter year-over-year yet are auto remain victory. headwinds truly into a to a in and

stands currently our Our calendar year above ratio XX X.X points target. combined

they suggest are we still inflation have vigilant. elevated. Macroeconomic While loss but indicators abating, are is trends flattened,

of geopolitical could our change the macroeconomic the and Given overnight. future view environment,

plans for rest information the new to and XXXX in. refine continue our as We XXXX of comes

take We offers market business advantage have we quickly of opportunities built the can a us. where the

things the that the with best-in-class react I'm results of ourselves. will change, confident of expect So we goal we as delivering

year, calendar announced, historical our a fourth approach previously this on a reporting again beginning as historical quarterly quarter, I on your basis basis continue we monthly now will we've you a such versus to for comparisons move limit of Consequently, and comparisons reminder, and next for XXX the Finally, joining as will a on will convention. Gregorian us, basis. Thank results take questions. and we will a we

today's now questions. portion the This of available have recorded concludes answer event. our Instructions] members of to [Operator We previously management team live

Morgan question of first comes Our from the Bob with Huang line Stanley.

are growth Just Once going -- XX% how a about the you combined your should quick way now about Obviously, to to question think that be XXXX, closer XX% into closer to you XXXX, assuming losses get think you is XXXX? once you and appears reasonable would you heading it that Curious a forward? more appears growth to are on ratio. improving, as targeted -- that ratio trajectory we to in growth. combined future the manageable, getting -- into reaccelerate assume reserving should

reasonable, Yes, Bob. that's definitely

$X were direct is auto get thinking side. We last there, and from we're doing work diminish points the grow even from company billion hard X.X the little of seeing of market PIF of nearly to a a our We're bit compared actions, to to about it. if year. months to Here's have going And our spend media so ambient continue pullback X we're able us to to first with getting on out the last XX% pretty to part caught lot obviously I'm the the how a XX, on non-rate that. still you shopping. the we self-imposed statement higher

the year. So people but community we're that about there, pretty say this necessarily out were for XX,XXX we to analytical able for that mostly excited what achieve us And not got there. I the

what start So of our growth. start the We'll profit work relatively to back to we'll on do non-rate pull in And comes before continue near that. actions. future, to some

to back. been hierarchy look a out We can to of that of there. start So have lot pull obviously test. actions we a uncertainty we'll non-rate There's

pull of going budget So we're put rest -- non-rate the pretty met the And back on of go measured. we'll quarter but then be going robust and that And tranche We marketing that hierarchy have, team to plan obviously, actions. just effect. we're in still a this into with our XXXX. into are working can next to media we to we

So uncertainty. lot I would excited. a we're of been will say, say there's that I

and And as our really XX better. we but at can so or diligent as grow is to we're going fast to cautious, goal be

Maybe bit little reserving. a pivot helpful. on very That's

a But just of time? On developing disclosure the It in kind An looks improved you on. had XX-Q, explanation trends of of over are lot frequency, like normalized, curious quite terms bodily on bit. severity injuries. how a frequency on specifically

to around forward? causing expecting what's have curious numbers trend frequency a And will the should a if number generally be that Just negative is to improve? normalize frequency back we that that commentary it any going there you

it to our -- could A lot do really It's geography discern Yes. to frequency. mix, mix, of do underwriting has with hard CMT have with it effect. to be

too from a lot much just overall really say on focus months. because stability is XX we're to of don't I down X.X%, So XX perspective there's that want would inputs. What about to I a

stable So stability are we've of say been down look XX where overall. I'll still What about when our UBI frequency are pre-COVID. data, as we far about at is as also we months pretty seeing XX% VMTs

XX% from But what versus lot in workers seeing data remained stability is home that some I we and about swipes of again, can't we're a not shows that, at commute office pretty movement will have hours, that Now confirm that office working badge more continue. external office. to stable of

while. a always of inputs our change There's stable there's back as So about that's of it's but some there some and quite rolling been a a of lot especially lot actions, talked is we stability. always happening, for non-rate

BMO. The next with question comes Mike from of Zaremski line the

ambient your internally, you're evolved -- as which How view? about should shopping? benefit, industry Should profit of healed, ambient own profitability at and well as and position? have kind guys do LTV of margins guess And industry's is ambient CAC kind long extraordinary shopping. on heals a are all guys as on Or getting benefit lower ultimately, we thinking you from the the looking the to shopping has -- as then pretty Progressive's of I the at kind follow-up as capital view you of as your be it kind dissipate.

again specifically of about it's saw this been get How Mike, year We market and as of change did while. beginning front we then cars. I in a for out fixing is the at trends hard rates think severity begin in that, the of with, to a

we're And front shopping. We in that behind, about of you low when the closely in per sale. ambient get others can the auction be great watch really out it might that, really to is getting that a going So that get part cost environment.

put we'll competitors but do, So the rate I of can't they're but as there, that means the we and out if we lot really profit all. will market what that to at and going feel imagine is trying gas to we going business. that, margins, other like I on shopping softening put definitely get to how to to watch happen, their needed that's get target which means that they're a is speak

today, Mike, Much purchasing with add. are Progressive. of the ambient shopping we a dissuading policy I'd from

the we through to that place So in had those as buy potentially we saying, a shoppers to Progressive Tricia as had been policy. profitability. so, to on are ambient pull are non-rate improve was going more And actions we've back do designed of get some going of obviously to

So what adequately that growth. I'll more become out priced as call, unmet have we there some, we're demand will

Okay. That's helpful.

it's development. There's that, market gears other coming lot is new lastly, I bigger does this to there, the But price at what's peers. business hoping that reserve guess assuming hefty a or the any on with color increases. a with of cause that growth you business than commercial on TNC commercial parts was And business? lot I share can you I'm a come a of to of side. on of auto personal to offer to taken switch business just penalty business been also you've going Lastly, non-TNC? been

I'll with last the part. start Yes,

I is it necessarily sometimes with that we the comes know think what product state. in don't

we're any just new So we've seen TNC. where like in the cost it, learning business, that associated with

those the doubled in are the had we some are way, right more states UM/UIM. limit specifically, are is better. But since specifically what another have mature mixes, the rate we've much rate you're that increases. the relating We've said on by rate structural challenges performing And few a over driven just to And XXXX the business. TNC states seeing states. So increases

both have. customers that we we've been of is gathering doing with the really our So data what

to their fashion develop own more We have the approaches timely in then writer. with them obviously with a separate two of get companies, how data being right largest And auto them but flexibility. and work have We commercial talk about bifurcate a the to trove they just treasure the data. to rates and around

into or what now. think is X-month can't performing comfortable specifically get working UM/UIM about we in I with it And more go the segmentation. right need, closely but very proprietary, specifics high that's to the the on working we're So because talked lot with I better. greater states we're of of rate other policies a And limits. they're we're states, because the

The of next the with line question comes Bhullar Jimmy from JPMorgan.

had reserves. in had where an several you guys So We a development for the adverse on had had first, months commercial Commercial development side personal side, adverse I you in auto and think I well. September, as Line question on the consistent issue

months sort trend what in discuss and were maybe where this the drivers the as beginning development well? continue that that Commercial not of what adverse might So you few confidence for a is of gives Lines a of the

Yes.

Gary the in talked of was did the claims. his one I reported up at factors, make TNC the pretty in reserving injury was of I Lines. We'll Commercial look. Really about similar we specific two think that other Lines. team the and some late those states the And and saw looked obviously some have of passenger feel So those Commercial deeply. things We in continue just in reserves it auto the private the we to majority the

continue XXX, Gary the of of high cars. Lines will reserved at think states as House adequately for year sure to we're Commercial throughout think to And So the make Bill Florida well. look those limit fixing

the ratio, as view has your by any there mostly as the well? hikes decline active price in part market pull while secondly on on been driven proactive to Okay. Or And and a from then just you're seeking and marketing? back not expense your be the on exemptions structural are changes

obviously looking always in in ratio. as increase back on we're that especially expense ratio pulled well hits the advertising, But to premium. and we've the Well, reduce significantly the expenses, as non-acquisition expense

with guess. And coming back you'll into come spending? back, market I you you start need to the do What see before marketing more

Yes.

we're start and Again, cautious to to marketing even -- a we a I actions, initially be do that spend our have back like But fourth spend what spends spend of have. at said, for have is already we if that continue pre-planned marketing that's XXXX. and roll will robust and really you we on the plan. amount planned look We reduction, the and into quarter going media non-rate a significant

pull think the business back profit we is one XXXX. So of first there's if we long as of forward as that a the we that we're lever in ourselves lot where our can had if we did we making target in place pull margins find half or

The of Yaron line next with the Kinar from comes Jefferies. question

questions. Two

any do now? first, which is the from hopefully you strike So impact see behind us UAW potential

some we vehicles think, bit because weeks in little to wasn't a do recovery around parts There's of about the X total. made. long, even as the I weeks though XX XX before We new strike being well to that as see start

strike this. the into group mode of went of around the sort John sensitivity saw Murphy when we immediately, analysis happen, his So and

that. minimize deployed on a for is company. or this have issue customers executed and disruption our in our really And We the XX the both to and main weeks so next just plan

Got it.

near-term impact So or to beyond not but XX XX so? really potentially, weeks

That's what thinking. we're

we're that quickly like the more react continue course, based the to. the every watch about need see thing and has but the in having fixing especially The may do should mechanics concern not is rate towards in just and forward all impact. it worry earn adequately states past, that Of we'll should that shops we body any data on to really a vehicles, be most that, have of say, been as delays now we the I in we to to able right the talent to we'll going just which in and priced,

second question, Got help you this. it. then us my think And maybe can through

a in a So auto, as good well. of rate still of you've implemented lot personal that earning chunk

loss trends. the of stabilization some about talking You're

of new much adequacy, an you accelerate you the to ratio? expect that when So Or a the penalty? if growth impact is business still healthier loss immediate because improve and the on adverse ultimately this impact do rate

spend lifetime price believe units But year, we putting if is new that. we are on then business book penalty. good at there it. we about or cohort XX feel new to on Well, we more And calendar XX a if marketing, the a we'll

efficient more target to. the we our But in. think rate We to of that are that's margin it to feel by part do goes and very we if in we media as we'll we're know spend, price we happy go as better in that. we every can day really, day And profit make business and products new earns each all

The from with the Bank next of Josh Shanker of line question comes America.

competitor about individual elsewhere and the year? and competitors, on when company I change has but in leakage for year year the look don't a need behavior, grown its does over year has direct GEICO in market to of growth share come the some year the independent from? other market can has dramatically. And GEICO becomes companies. customers has I significant most think channels, customers, that where at what to like type might not new at publicly of where calculus the thinking more you add next the the desire I yet Looking customers tell past the that passed, aggressive traded achieved of a captive the Progressive policies be come And new lost so Progressive gains share and to been speak and about lot about And that's of

we is the We coming make much Josh, where we're of as the Well, our through we're to our we because company, to we know proof carrier. business anything try prior target to of and as growth do I understand think margins. think profit going a long I grow can

to have GEICO, not the sure it's for expense other ratio, companies, in about it's strategic market? I want pillars, and actions. to with we're our brand, come then and keeps prices culture but all And I quickly before, right can it it's our and they to and win the of Do We and about to continue starting competitive have Do our to it's make react depends But where we've very making able our really when -- people competitive? And are going X broad have And coverage. just priced sure on people the that that's have been so and really us, continue that's don't brand? care focus, do of which on specifically we think invest grow. a that about prices we we that pillars talk from. them really, be all is right talked competitors the to percentage X to those And so high-growth company. strategic where really our of in they

indicative to consider in coming we're segments where thing of is The somewhat would which they're Josh, there, be from. growing

are also growing, our standard we yet and continuing the have more that we So do not actually not And their the are this on grow with rights Robinsons, been a of we've auto bundle preferred shrinking in we bit homeowners the segments home to Progressive. been business, well call little but who year, end.

nonstandard of spectrum. the the end So

And think they a future really from set is to about it. us customers whom but well obviously, So our customer that come stick because, where bodes important for way also longer. we're really those important, growth our is I into bringing think with

the property such as that I as the of -- business a business or a are you it's and question the bifurcating where what fast you that answer, want what property segmenting is you to extent way better goal or it there that percentage at XX% way And guess, you're in geographies business by some the can. state, is but is have running not given of there the growing the operate? and it there the states yet operating maybe achieved Obviously, of segmented

Yes.

started I apps about indexed and the saw that policies job. in to year great that believe what have in book ago, data in new think queue in volatile you a and And we We're with more the and nonvolatile. Florida, the that we states we non-renewing and less a Florida. start we're XXX,XXX over derisk doing policies with was just on about in we're

And so we love Florida.

We have Robinsons. a lot of

lot non-renew but money to lot We autos we have we to we needed continue of homes, some. a and were and have of not making a

of We're of get long strategy there's and and year So will that so. We necessary unlike the next wasn't is segmentation, about lot on And we or in a obviously, not what the in in I risk but Ian years as knew it would good But but quarter to to off, the time a investing than we're execute, our the will rate think still some we because understanding need time. feel was ago property channel. more there. storms. over investing happen the our that. for a will we're really And more take is in it channel better reinsurance, came take past. buzz it was lot was plan, in many it third the But heart there auto

of Greg comes James. next line the The from Peters with question Raymond

or to gen want your getting back action. sounds those back around the companies? next change actions. fees were? comments about us to step the it of And exactly to any they year? over you're some commission include things remind expect those those lead actions what to non-rate you ready things Can Do to some of Did like dial I you

to Pat let But about and want around on on comment do our that. bit? that It less a about talk strategy Pat, commissions plans. you paid more little was I'll underwriting some

how Tricia's John's around comments kind as comments door. let Greg. around much Yes, the we are business centered of in front well

restricted have place. plans bill we in more So

coming are verification information ensure the more require the adequately. the risks we're additional We we checks have priced make and accurate to get door in on sure that to

into as when in of talk those the about are year. we markets lifting -- some the primary leaning non-rate approach we that that's are actions, the we So things end

out where and generate markets. year start more once would demand in for XXXX gen we've lead as we're to 'XX, been about point put then the the spending in calendar we XX a needed. confident investing market we Your more, And a thing, books be while for those of actually the that that would

a expect still persists. So it seen of hard who up, We've attract cost-effectively ramp to competitors push that their annual we to, efficiently that the to and what a we need only be but a rate We've as lot spend that, do customers. will we will policies. need back through lot seen ramp systems there's and market right

So get of there's effect into be market And perspective. in we'll more still we on the new that lot to had into as a rate lean the consumers. year from a spend

to Great. property I the question, other around guess comments business. the pivoting the previous some of

You're several perspective, on seems Just updated it Robinsons next you're from in been results drag combined ratio it's loss cohort? objective on that leader definitely the the XX trending running your for it -- to property would to -- share your a maybe like still that grab in combined just your it's Is years right now. that a business to or some direction ratio or your but It get for corporate-wide. going helpful. as XX target views year? that a I view consolidated you're using be a above

attempting loss it you you been use has a well. a I'll as Yes. back, home It done when look We're drag. that. not tell has Overtime, to pretty leader,

investing Florida, Now technology in That's new in need little have probably a models. we're we why why seen we're and to like country. we across states and the what should doing was product that now. segmentation, Louisiana bit did derisk That's Texas, the

good. we So feel do

a can't et plan property continue the But bundled because to on not, derisk make happen have part margins have that no our no, cetera. is target desire in know our But have going book of We -- super cohort our year. the if and future. profit to that we you're the is predict be or we and next margins goal Robinsons different to to our target our I have what's robust important I future. idea depending

an less in been exceeding we growing objectives the are just weather Florida, have including historically, volatile noted, company. in in for volatile areas terms period was have where priced perspective point, results we the property a Tricia been -- think to way the and XX to And far as that historically. And Tricia shrinking we more XX for as more we set the actually noting, from out aggregate XXXX of considerably

we and actually personal a have targets we deriving about as by business. equivalent than the ratio or combined return on think So better all segment, different to auto capital those

year is targets But our in calendar based XX business. the commitment different achieve of pricing to that, the that aggregate. below are we the on characteristics So each

The question Evercore. of Motemaden next the from David comes line with

spoke mix had on business loss is can the question I So could could size book? the as business ration. in first new on you and a just I'm improvement that, catastrophes, to new was that -- the year auto quarter last excluding opposed lower renewal between coming presentation, this ratio, less accident and if of in quarter, just that having and the how business benefit my you loss about the wondering shift have on renewal just from new much the improvement the ratio loss have

we target I business margin. size on, about bring think to That's we intentions pretty that renew, and we tough new customer, are reach profit our you a as will obviously when when know more but our we

have And year taken actions I would the on far offer renewal new larger loss that that we've influence accident mix. ratio the rate than

business. double we that auto alone points X So the a we than number. more just quarter basis, for year-to-date earned in our as third personal in On it's noted, had

that the you're that where that's But we obviously, taken have the Obviously, and considerably So best as the but to denominator numerator, earning in severity the rate improvement moderating loss seeing to that's a gotten bit is when significantly, we've and has this you helped ratio is -- ratio. well. loss the Well, take way the us there's of continue up improve. most get from. that quarter in

has it at like and question, a then retention you all guys the I seems bit you I have surprised said, guess has would And the all is influenced profound have definitely It's new how just little more -- strong ratio thought. business than better been just I seems as given you to I are And better there. than a the on thinking adding business? on -- at just guess, about growth mean, out that in obviously market and impact book. renewal loss retention that the Pat, a how or more just maybe on the XXXX, hard a

surprised I an stable say certainly -- in And with have the mean, is the really, us if us, based watched we rates. is it because we the some thing on competition as do, It know has delights don't inflation And extraordinary retention what would want having we to data. trends. rates I I been fashion that. increasing

stability we'd have small in what I customers do a while, call the is bites they we to been for shop. where take small say feel tremendous that So our but some growth don't a and this and the was really rate haven't makes of Apple able saying trends. And I around have XXXX, love sense on to

that's as trailing can goal. and trailing we're see fast will long like the we X we happy we So stability, that XX. and as as But grow some stability. our both the with to retention as of very see a We'd

year. point a I'll obvious, but in the state fairly last And retention we're off terms low of coming

our got the better and now still and some able take So market our we find rise of need maybe even of last rate rate were have up, rates caught terms taking in And surpassed though they XX they're find year, less rate, shop to that a as like us and as think to shop, customers on rate. Competitors increases, it the rate. of rate cases, consequently, and better continue in they in of a in customers for. actually could those we ahead sort the taking points saw I ahead would market of

And getting enjoyed we've closer that historical highs, so our we renewal the Tricia and trends PLEs back back We're as to are robust to noted, yet the we're expectancies rates, lifetime and changes seeing, think with year-over-year we're continue. up previously. delighted going they're not but we're to

Fargo. comes Wells Greenspan The next of the question Elyse from with line

you're little first question, XX% guys you My bit that right, pointed year-to-date. the out, a above

got QX like to QX. better have a fourth the loss going relative what earn it you're in, in trend, right, quarter, in sense guys You the to And rate of right? sounds the

you I'm well. So there sure have as expectations

months swing we XX% the what's go few as that the with ultimately you So whether biggest for the earnings below next into get year? of target like variable

Yes.

think weather huge. I is

closely. that so watching And

We have passenger to another side. earn points on in auto private X the

-- earning from we've of Commercial 'XX been But Lines 'XX revision. improvement, our non-rate year both we Line actions. in Commercial a the lot 'XX rate and On been side, believe, in through as calendar

headed get we're need we We of 'XX But on we the with earn of analysis side. so some deeply expenses. think often to do starting into commercial line do there. what to rate really care about a lot to quite we And

Elyse. and So And company, to variable, we been we've as think continuously trying can expenses the going big is a reduce I weather be to do that.

second my up And Okay. advertising come has question, bunch call. then a this on

to calendar in resets, next clock, like it right, year. the sounds So the the we obviously, of get start

think I'm will how that through of advertising at is this more we're on push you thought for next expect ultimately too then then the not the XX% can just to recognizing So considering and happened the restarting soon, marketing trying machine. -- when turn the year? of process kind you year? right, go And growing around you when that's what you start too to fast balance do

media likely little more Pat in comment actions if next is a on seeing. of if bit, of non-rate sort over. on achieve put see I we clock much are the do you quarter. of sort we but back a -- we months. us lot excites we're to it we spend of what to let that And we to of the depends depends But are get Yes. the the into our to that -- play some But need pulling business, because start we're to. A then going be anything? how of see starts do lot I weather on new think a the But intentions normal can first in able want add several lot that Pat,

add first Yes. last The only thing is I quarter. would

know market. of the lots perfect market is ambient shopping really remains sort first ad be of market. And shopping spend how how we yet much much storm So fatigue hard of don't a in XXXX, quarter could in what we had in and of

rates and ambient be similar reinforces a shop are shopping price they much may are, shopping that. our So off point as consumers lower because market. and first If to or find you switching John's quarter not available the that rewards when in where pays in about there

So markets as markets Tricia advertising for local this most of were we today, there's mentioned, yet we year off don't know. But we're the where markets there were but off too. at start

new period. targets generate dynamic lifetime for expectation on during our our the very that we business of it's based So profit hitting

So the you're available to needed that we that start is we up ramping depending got markets dynamic the on adequate much ad support and spend. feel that more leaning as we year, first the after of which but market how be and will ambient we've right rates and will the spending system, in into

The next UBS. Meredith the from line comes of with question Brian

a curious just going and bit I'm kind Elyse's of question. little maybe to

saw going and probably and perspective, going guys of this to inflationary to saw -- it? cautious a a open then time given in kind belts be you growing we year earlier you bit quickly going around, go that experience of uncertainty up maybe before you your to all after engine you macroeconomic sudden, this under just data are little the where are more get more are little this pressures, a from Given really continued growth you're to pop the a

states on And pull whether like enough watch, feel we slowly why we got discipline think it's beauty pulling back in be where XX the a back, XX, cohort calendar I or year Yes, sort and we've year. more of cautious, the the why that's be rate. the and around will the that's -- we'll around that's only test, and we'll a

grow, want bit that's think so will uncertainty closely. little limiting watch been But to a And that we but that factor. there's so do it I a we much of

in aren't we we So this the year. same position rates we to crank up did where have like

then Maybe you for it talk and the a a could business. Tricia going know some going ramp from kind see start at was the is I XX on while, that And we How the to we BOP about I, to is in be? that states. this thought how up going. of trend what And question, to to a talked relative the are to and BOP sense. just point, business I letter saw perspective? topic the it in kind a Makes profitability you're rollout of haven't growth in second about you little bit

in Yes, we're still part small we states of excited about are super how BOP, relatively a the it's business. many

is we'll won't business, about to new comfortable. we targets, watch we think we it's understanding and have so actually And more as grow you business costs course, it and acquisition what it costs, going So higher business, when and with to but continue it loss publicly. than is expect of be on the comment and -- that obviously we stable get

Great.

so surprises no So far?

Yes. Exactly.

from comes of Meyer question Stifel. next The Shields with the line

little could get less should you of in COVID? normal, how profits fact terms I we had what to generating the have probably growth and bit a that pricing the quickly for much of back fully be you're there have As excess way you're than quantifying that both profitability curves to growing is assume been? any telematics before impact

to the curve. Well, we don't fully price

have discount. We both the expanded the and on surcharge

say. think quantify I'd to tough to I what pretty really that it's is

Yes.

think curve to to to more accurately. to continuous I expanding expanding been monitoring over Tricia data in the and policies right, world offering is price more more closer able our be time, to collect price and to we've been the we've UBI So continuously

of it's this coming business. coming As it, most wouldn't from I It's how our meaningful to powerful collecting much point. to as we continuous both in is the specific rating a And to to variable. of our quantification the accurately at technology piece data And of more and expense from a on on precisely the the more growth time over data continue comment profit invest analyze far that lower price basis. and

probably think states. XX% I in earned of premium our we're So

I at think in time. have this XX continuous monitoring states point

moat feel to think really space. that widen in good to have or maintain we about we So insurance invest even continuing the we that issues-based

Okay. very helpful. That's

Is the or The in the of rights that can't marketplace? that smaller opposed again, personal clearly thematic. compete. more option maybe auto Does economically insurers simply to as this out of second frankly are probably more and efficient? there buying at Progressive There renewal question, is outcompeting look lot less a

I on if in But -- we've said, company more have last rolls. can think time a brand, We investing going is distribution you we some this that itself. and seen in a segmentation, to of couple to smaller difficult technology, that always so book as depends. gotten look do of years, like you've

to policies get those to premium wouldn't I want our on get a So book. -- pay to that

efficiency. I our regardless get can think just our based size we and them on

with [Operator Barclays. Instructions] Benguigui line The Tracy comes the next from question of

some Just quick math.

increases get plan XQ, an auto. year. you X% for additional year-to-date XX-Q, you achieved in something will full the to said You us the that XX% like so in rate take And XX% in that

increases last think quarter, rate penciled you I the XX% in year. personal auto full for

share key feels like additional this to lot, It's take you rate not now. you need needs? drivers but So can it behind more the rate a

difference. mean I I know too I would don't Yes. a -- read think point into much I that

a delay be could it having Sometimes, in it approved.

the seeing, are we We is about have that through what talked been trends to but that same go have the rate department, we've each about.

cars, attorney any it's comment more fixing whether or reps so So [indiscernible] on that?

down action statements the rate is and its it obviously, segment level. to and dynamic, know, forward-looking as Our you state

to important the it's So remind we business. manage how

managers that, at trends, trends, assessing product have in as specific is and as who plan the level, do going some the non-rate all projecting manage they state We marketplaces, spend. well actions and cases, as we than what noted, are in product they their in what terms and ad understanding even to of lower on

when dynamic. We severity again, which we lot we to say to going to have moving and assure XX single it's environment is into we take. we're seen aggregate the to down aggregate, Where we obviously in take But that XX, comes a see, more the today. be moderate there's changes back claim rate that we it's So change very or But hard that a fantastic. plan And changed it's digits, that normal can and think goes, to dissect from I it what to it's you. in to know. tough it severity. goes

The quarter. lines. development you this claims And modest you're there you Were It adverse came Florida that personal curious about looks had auto from reform? mostly the reopen I'm feel favorable Okay. reserving year factors? because Was Great. quarter? the prior good adequately also in other seeing commercial [indiscernible] like if

confident House feeling We're Bill in much cars. more right. exactly both That's the and fixing

what remind I can but you claims seen of the first past? on in What haven't caused last know And Okay. it me half quarter, the the you the you in that changed? reopen touched it year

we and And into of the customer, and damage couple write -- happen, that claimant, I get you the then person, we've maybe that it's closed. there's repair, gets more things whether the Yes. can find the And delayed an a to estimate. but when payment, or mean, an insurer repaired, car they so increases it's shop is it it rental. feature made the paid goes

rentals with it -- length get really parts. so It's time, lead time labor to was increased. of the it's So rates,

are there into factors So couple of that gone have different fixing a cars.

a And influence on the injury of lot there -- Florida side, was sorry. I'm there

we to and XXX had of be. we influx and the of would the an claims attorney where increases Bill reflect reserve take drove House what And setting so representation cost to lawsuits future believe

Okay.

the it would maybe what like. Was calling until claims those an look closes, don't perhaps you wait close closed? actual claim So in premature you estimate

It's system our works. the way No.

two reserves. files, have we or set that's and line And we if then coverages. change So those know file dynamically to when strengthen different for reserves our change need one we they not

are at the we best loss this time. we information cost estimating absolutely yes, have But ultimate the with

in our that of I can think to -- vehicles very common business even parts it's can't you because are supplements have you have see.

other suspension So and parts.

then you'll damage, as property with write more or to see, or can more. able you you evolves, So And especially shouldn't see collision claim less. you what the be write

supplements. really common. that's could be there but nothing, it's Sometimes But

Zaremski of question the comes line Mike BMO. from with next The

Just one on Florida.

positive through guess, from know written Are on Or too the influences it big -- to just the legislation the pit reserving I I now in its the of recently any the a that Florida? soon has guys business? python made in way pig So have guess you tell? you mostly. is seeing I terms book

bit. tell. to be but we We soon out a anticipate let will to too positive, play it's it think have that I'd this

have last to appears our question. been That

So that concludes our event.

So I back scripts. you closing to will over hand the the for call

replay a concludes year. for will That Relations be Event. Third the next the Progressive event on the the of Investor section Information website Progressive's Corporation's of Quarter available Investor about

now disconnect. may You