JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 13 Jan 232022 Q4 Earnings call transcript

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase’s Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] We will now go live to the presentation. Please standby. would Chairman turn and and Officer, Barnum. I to call Chief time, Jeremy Chase’s JPMorgan CEO, this like the to over Financial At Jamie Dimon; Mr. Barnum, go ahead. please

is refer to disclaimer Good everyone. much. very back. the our you please The on Thank presentation and website available morning, the on

Starting XX%. of of and $XX.X billion, on delivered firm of EPS an income X, net the of billion $X.XX, Page ROTCE reported $XX on revenue

the a quarter, of we of significant two shares, million by Visa sale This on offset items in B $XXX net gain corporate, investment had $XXX million securities loss.

with highlights. strong credit year wallet year-on-year, the and across and X% few remains a on to share up both spending. is non-discretionary debit ranked X% at Touching but of growth discretionary a in actual continues Combined performance fees credit the and #X ended spend normalize, for We company. with IB global

of mild central in as macroeconomic the outlook, primarily X% well charge-offs On driven as or credit build X% was partially which by production billion or were Markets uncertainty. costs recession revenue year-on-year. Page of by card or up driven more net now was reduction $X.X The Revenue billion have or offset lower $X.X Markets billion services, rates. billion to structural billion year-on-year, growth up $X.X included by our a and year-on-year. results. quarter XX% $XXX higher lease lower $X.X million. XX% or NIR AWM, driven of net in Home on driven fourth Expenses fees X, up predominantly well Markets a case as down was management expense IB of fees billion performance investments. and income of auto $XX revenue. $X.X in higher we ex by reflects billion $XXX loan and updates $X.X reserve And NII the billion And in pandemic-related $XX.X up Lending as was ex XX%, firm’s by million was

results of of Page billion the revenue XX%. year Looking an income of at X, billion, reported EPS full delivered we net of firm the ROTCE and on $XX.XX and $XXX.X record $XX.X

Page we CETX reflecting B On of the the ended for AOCI XX.X%, shares the on which which distributions, up capital ratio card sheet quarter-on-quarter, quarter with points, lower approximately reached primarily billion early. by lower declined a in we offset Markets increase XX now quarter less partially by services. X, $XX Recall the had sale was that benefit an the primarily income, RWA. RWA net XX% and Visa of basis have in of a one balance CETX quarter gains business, and in we driven lending, including XXXX, of target first RWA the

So given this to that, we quarter. repurchases resume share expect

for spend spend businesses small Cash on fourth X% E-commerce up is X%, buffers year. spend up segments X% for the back for up reflected with up yet of normalizing let’s and to and in Both credit are Now, sentiment Combined are health our is last discretionary flat. of businesses year-on-year. both the to was Page income normalize, lower this cash businesses levels was pre-pandemic Retail the third be the Consumer year. of travel. data. and fully Starting They reflects on and our both roughly expected U.S. income slowly although year-on-year, are starting data. the quick businesses, by debit on based faster. and segments consumers X. not strong on go spend particularly discretionary growth in-person our on update back concerns footing, with quarter consumers being a solid small lower while quarter to to generally spend smaller buffers non-discretionary continue in a recessionary strongest

Now moving to financial results.

CCB which billion, was income quarter, XX% up net billion This year-on-year. $XX.X $X.X of of revenue on reported

partially Consumer to we quarter-on-quarter year-on-year, by in inflows Client by customers. good notice up that Business higher Deposits being & will as down higher production offset outflows plays was by market strong our Banking out, revenue. presentation the year-on-year, rates. Banking year-on-year, were NII lower deposit & including down Starting are relationships. our offset with assets by were seeing Home XX% revenue on partially spend new was down momentum, XX% X% You largely and investment rate driven we renamed remains by driven there, Wealth revenue from cycle performance, XX% net Management. driven Lending where

Auto, Card income. card Services are lease Card by services XX%. revolving up up year-on-year, NII balances, were now XX% balances higher we on higher up pre-pandemic predominantly offset XX% was lower revolving Auto outstandings revenue & and to Moving Total to driven levels. were by back partially

up billion, were below down depreciation $X However, by by should of originations XX%. lower higher volumes. primarily levels, Expenses And offset still tailwind year-on-year, revolving balances billion XXXX. well pre-pandemic which are per auto then lease account X% driven auto investments from be as in largely $X.X as were compensation, a

terms of up billion, Lending were in net $XXX of in of performance million million million $X.X Card charge-offs and credit reserve In $XXX and builds $XXX million, Home costs this reflecting $XXX quarter, credit year-on-year.

revenue with income fees Investment was announced reflecting of activity down line billion fourth revenue reported In on fees Page $X.X in year-on-year. net the were down billion Banking billion the XX%, earlier quarter. were X. $XX.X market. $X.X of year. for lower Advisory, XX%, the CIB the down on XX% Next, in of CIB IB

down for in fees businesses conditions, XX% debt underwriting Our were affected market equity. by and XX% for resulting down

conversion the difficult outlook. very be conditions sentiment about but same. the Pipeline and robust, the dynamics terms quarter. Also the year’s outlook, sensitive remain first is it relatively that last economic market compare will to is against In note of a

market products flat relatively markets was by strong securitized activity, drove up in billion, Moving against be while Markets, Equity fourth year-on-year, billion, macro environment. markets, revenue was elevated a up particularly client was $X.X Payments last and emerging year. as in the by XX% in strong continue our Income currencies to quarter franchise. driven X% XX% strength was revenue the challenged rates to Fixed year-on-year. $X.X up volatility

Expenses of revenue-related Excluding basis, driven year-on-year, the investments, up by deposits up investments, predominantly and year-on-year, by and year-on-year, billion were by timing impact up rates. Services driven X% driven market driven levels. higher year a primarily $X.X higher billion higher of rates, and full revenue-related year-on-year structural compensation. billion X% by XX% compensation. of were was On net $XX.X XX% lower Security of expenses up by expense offset partially the was equity offset $X.X lower predominantly it was growth revenue of by largely the

the were continued XX% banking deposit the Expenses quarter-on-quarter, Banking loans revenue were slower deposits. loans partially capital reflecting year $X.X originations net Gross pace Investment was primarily X% down originations billion on and quarter-on-quarter, up of Commercial C&I X. up Moving non-operating activity. driven of Bank income Commercial were and a XX% reflecting X% Page revenue up in of year-on-year, growth deposit-related reflecting quarter-on-quarter, earlier and billion to of by Loans both from $X.X by of markets investment of attrition year-on-year, higher XX% and $X.X were revolver were reported Banking XX% impacts in offset rates, X% X% year-on-year. prepayment which $XXX due by billion. margins, year-on-year up revenue reduced down Deposits activity. lower and [ph] million strength fees. was utilization. driven up XX% Record to year-on-year higher sequentially. CRE

Then to complete AWM our X. on of Page business, lines

balances, linked Private $X.X with predominantly of margin was billion by Banking management Asset $X.X year-on-year and of and were of by offset predominantly Advisory X% in market XX%. & in our this performance Revenue higher of on to billion reductions billion declines. teams, Wealth lower Management pre-tax reported performance-related lower placement largely year’s $X X% driven growth by by up net fees margins income compensation. up year-on-year, driven offset deposit Expenses

inflows overall outflows billion, net For trillion the $X.X year. positive across quarter of net year-on-year of driven client we and were billion billion and $XX $XX AUM inflows saw were of by the X% XX% levels. equities $XX fixed income $X the full of down billion and in liquidity, year. assets long-term respectively for for And market full net the lower and quarter, trillion for and $XX

were lending, deposits while were investments X% driven cash other and loans quarter-on-quarter, driven rate securities-based down sequentially rising the by environment, alternatives. X% migration to by lower down Finally, in resulting

due to Corporate a billion net impact $X.X of mentioned million I Turning NIR Corporate the up Page reported up was $XX NII year-on-year higher million were reflects million of earlier. and gain was the a X. year-on-year. And Revenue was million. year-on-year. loss of expenses up $XXX on two billion rates. of $X items of billion $X.X billion, $X.X $XXX significant to $XXX

XX. NII of XXXX, which for pages, With to a over will I that, next sip take with will pivot outlook Page few starting the the let’s I cover on water.

Okay.

approximately to NII $XX and We ex billion. $XX expect total billion to NII Markets be approximately be

On the significant the that expect $XX throughout evolve how NII XXXX. billion XXXX page, culminated quarterly the show how in increases we we quarter run-rate in to fourth and for the for

both the a that includes outlook hikes the late cuts early through is expected of December, the year in combination Going curve. assumes rates wholesale guess the of Offsetting hike our of follow year which later in the nice the The forward consumers. in best The of deposit expected drivers. annualization the and the be tailwind. in repricing, paid should the tailwind impact that and rate

addition, well and balances further we growth looking the spend mix, sheet revolving as modest and company. growth the of normalization as loan In solid expect card at account rest balance of growth overall per across

balances note offset is and both We uncertain. by this it’s be particularly lower outlook NII wholesale. expect But given this in to important deposit very that will modest tailwind attrition that consumer

migration focus assumptions forwards, pricing maintaining product relationships bank quite could be and and this what assumes. will funds and Fed maybe be from different from on behavior determined different competitive attrition balance dynamics as deposit and customer Specifically, primary by growing we outlook and deviate meaningfully decisions and could

That ones of relationships timing the NII. deepen investing the we sequential the expect up as loan all all to as our and return, growth executing equal. we new And trajectory further, as just would finish of of affect to factors on throughout existing NII impact NII the strategy else could said, continue see customers well growth, acquire year. And we sequential these of to significantly with as being

year the result expect a indicates, to for higher this is NII be the NIR. As we as remember, in Markets of guidance negative rates, offset slightly but Markets

to be the includes XX, $XX about which XXXX assessment. to expect we adjusted expenses billion, from Now expense Page approximately million FDIC $XXX turning on higher

a increase Going which we inflation, Day, as you we investments, is modest connection driver a And headcount labor-related from the the executing expect with forward-looking from a are to which, invest at all the labor while in consistent investments. run-rate are of last The consistent growth headcount at in effectively on the continuing through detail An of is of in annualization basis, increases we it additional it’s Day primarily remain as year, more throughout abating with to Investor modest increase year, other our more in seems some than be May. XXXX. to and you the on drivers, our while for well plans told continue give what year. Investor will including themes we XXXX

is course, Of flat as are generate ultimately XXXX, outlook and completely was it in XXXX, close And be for to across true, company. dependent which includes as volume will the market we efficiencies this always. a be to revenue-related finally, tailwind to expecting always expense while continuing

XX, on on to and the exceptionally credit you in the card see benign XXXX Moving for the across Page was page, of wholesale, consumer. company how the environment can credit rest

specifically, recent Turning our rates about charge-off to outlook, card gave outlook for detail changed. this conference Marianne net a hasn’t XXXX of really at bit and quite our the

delinquency the of So And to the XX% to of entry story, future rate levels. it is recap leading indicator currently that around charge-offs. is pre-pandemic

around normalize the charge-offs the the about with X year, to of following that later. months middle expect We associated

be loss result, a will rates XXXX in still normalizing. As

points still be net XXXX the So up well in rate levels. while basis XXXX, rate anticipate normalized of low fully approximately to from we card exiting expect the we normalized but charge-off the historically X.X%, levels, around year below XXX

XX to up wrap So a Page for let’s going turn before to brief Q&A.

scenarios, was many very We dynamic an XXXX have the is results, are for for outlook, emphasized a the of the my Throughout of the of and proud results. uncertainty are what XX% XXXX we producing quite in in I ready expectation discussion performance. revenue strong of key while ROTCE environment. a another drivers And record range of our

ROTCE. on strong to So of as deliver forward, remain expect to look our near-term to our ability we and the we confident continue in returns target produce through-the-cycle XX% we in

operator, that, open up with the let’s Q&A. And line for

Instructions] Research. the Autonomous [Technical from Difficulty] coming John [Operator of from is line McDonald

proceed. You may

on ask range about wanted is Hi. of Jeremy. The outlook, quite Slide XX. costs I morning, wide. outcomes the NII Good to deposit

Does with it like where to of $XX the outcomes? you that? drivers you of As the kind could this the of up NII cost looks Maybe mentioned, of and color the demonstrated some of there. give billion X.X% deposit X% lines midpoint about on that line up range $XX billion kind

[Technical to I That’s type we give there you too all time. production. bottom significant rate have a we seeing literally. in guess, consumer, are are a migration there wouldn’t mean can impacts best on relatively supposed fact of our – now that the as We expect left I of to internal NII The know, for in CDs a right is little balances. drivers talked is are of quite into the company John. especially changes some and we usual wholesale. Difficulty]. And says. And on interest-bearing on Sure, new within Jamie In continued of the and to also produce average, bit flowing the as the take stylized about, CD out deposit non-interest-bearing going the just already indication see non-operating the meaningful the that drivers see small paid that good as are would attrition, outlook chart over

X% of market have We morning. this CD a got the in as

I deposit as of said And migration is of prepared forward of continued we be across remarks, modest well, in company so as internal expect as on. CD the and look will the function the and so course, attrition rest do rate a And in production cycle – there driver. we QT it a the

best we business way the the and got the one in run this be course, will have another year. for outcome in will all the we of of outlook. So actual guesses those different or just And

of buybacks, you it thoughts in that putting on the potential And that quantifying you capital about think buybacks? Thanks. Okay. size any the have and of will kind mix how and buybacks approaching decisions on or

sure. Yes,

of you to in the number sort So model. in the of helping out a like guys mode put

another sort got of we obviously, we at seeing have you GSIB way things, year. coming are look If stuff the next

there, number for billion $XX and of target you something generation, of think I all XX.X% use for of a sort know, that using of is buybacks at capital capital say, estimates, year So the course, of and But our dividends, your good minus etcetera organic the to elements hierarchy. buybacks are this like XXXX. always uncertainty end of the

uses quarter come shapes to that that as and that quarter. will in the for when first So release see much our NPR it’s how part be do we of III going if could second better final, it and our entirely some information timing Basel will are discretion will also we the the will be while and at sometime it we meaningfully won’t an money, the potentially the content so shape of of And first is unlikely noting and or that NPR only conditions maybe have a decision-making. decisions those well. short-term cover be surface that and it There area the

Got it. you. Thank

question next of Erika from UBS. is coming from line The the Najarian

You may proceed.

amount deposit follow-up beta. give attrition terms with of of beta particular. of Hi, with specific the a to deposit that what of this if is uncertainty morning. to my on terminal you forecast expecting But you deposit appreciate the there just, wondering for can I regards John’s year’s good guardrails significant imagine, Jeremy, following line NII you’re in questioning, could question NII is as sort up more a I’m in in question, first and

expectations early headwinds beating appreciate getting from very have printing time, the I’m including in seems billion feedback At that’s they this for number the that consistently occurring is fourth investors $XX.X NII NII the think giant XXXX, like what same year. I you been for quarter. the a conservative

helpful guardrails what versus So figure that? as own be are that’s could more I specific expectations the very try to think investors their why out

Erika. Thanks,

that I year a we’re I year. do evolve that if quite trying the So of were for giving desire full number you will too, a look, would to I think the specific appreciate totally guardrails. lot involves we’re which, I guessing how throughout about if helpful you. more want things by be honest,

I guardrails data I guardrails, at level is start and the just think especially relationships moment of the lot to cost. precision said, repricing of the dollar implicitly outside the maintaining we outcomes which are because than that giving connection that balances chasing with a bank about in be every or decisions once as unlikely. of any you you to we’re And not that’s that granular rather with level as just company of assume into, will very primary a strategy, a faced get end, a the in in growing respond at prepared

So modest for deposits, on [indiscernible] said. company the in that balance context, expect as we do Jamie, I attrition across

thank Erika, and about do big give not why I consider a want do I XX you. conservative. to picture

its out reduced balance Reserve Federal came bank the $XXX $X.X sheet by trillion So billion. deposits. of

can banks And places. in all And money are for competing in and of of investors market funds. course, so are the money different invest now, banks cap bills,

competing And banks are started some heavily.

and cash forget Some prior XXXX. if lot what – happened you less. compete of and in look have a at maybe But excess

never had go rates people huge think this up zero rates. looking never that. mistake I a fast. make this queued at We’ve We’ve had this

funds. there rates. going saving it, to of for migration to be expect are we’re more change and lot CD, competing migration I A more So money market will to people have to

to happen. earning you we’re that’s to NII And that own returns. out and this do but can earning. we’re out And at we’ve this earning always But sometimes on at are are I I and our sometimes the don’t XX, okay, We we’re people just other good even pace that will at – over doing. and point we would say, want look also quite under pointed time what it it Now timing, over know not earning quarter.

We’re maybe maybe on over something earning underwriting credit. else. We

and we give it report So will going these don’t to very secure wait and numbers, to false good is. how but we’re still to and see notions you are you, I want

of in follow-up exactly questioning. line And my that is

Let’s good. here. are the your second To returns zoom a still out point, Jamie, for

quarter. You the mentioned I’m recession. And I that asked to outlook a captures reask third the mild your question already going in

JPMorgan Investor with on you As think even headwind out provision? and do you about Day, NII ROTCE the in the in you think laid XXXX, that XX% hit can the that headwind

factors Yes, of we we a that. yes, can. lot But could can. turn But

I we think interesting we Day our think think which recession, even May, number, which the when you recession, which in Investor a ROTC good. be if probably may I a do real a is do industrial will we it would average equal real have what in we is give more company,

those and to some going we’re you good we good returns, grow. that, XX% detail So is – XX% And give still and are if you remember can around very still compound. is

are Some and point, don’t to numbers. know point. be want also point, capital And have this what to exactly needs we at growth at one XX%. Those I extraordinary is modify we that to

add And as point very clarifying minor Erika, to clear want this. be me crystal about let just a I

the we like we the factors, forecast, way weight facto a pandemic discussed is So you recession, we mild scenario more allowance from our construct that’s scenarios is a in central economist and a is which conservative terms correctly, perspective. the other it’s different case that know embedded an range the build say, around of de forecast the allowance, anchored through the in actually than through while of way the as and as lot, and

So about. we clear just want to be

you. Thank Perfect.

Bank is line question from Lynch. America from next of Ebrahim coming Merrill of the The Poonawala

proceed. may You

underlying. just following on Good up credit assumptions Jeremy, morning. maybe, I the guess

backdrop around, assumed you us in If customers of you given sense then in lot the in ratio year, that today? the rate what’s end about that? Are CRE commercial with overall could rate cap your just the in concerned the chatter backdrop? reserve at current outlook give terms Are struggles just of reprice rates pain unemployment what’s you around it real estate, seeing a of the of a the to be happening points and and

Sure.

quickly, Let me CRE do just Ebrahim.

our term from lending type As you multifamily business. the know, commercial office is sort of classic quite business different really

very is portfolio best office locations. A Class small Our best developers,

of are So the credit is the variety a perspective housing, commercial secure vast affordable estate term that which balances for in real sort multifamily reasons. loan of a quite really lending from majority commercial of stuff,

comfortable quite with feel that business. profile the we So loss of

credit so so asking And overall. then were yes, you about in assumptions the

So The us conservative economic and central the a yes, has that’s correctly, like I at as peak forecast unemployment adjustments higher unemployment imply outlook than said, reflect that the that. mild a we something like scenarios if to I peaking more X.X%. have a make case recession remember notably slightly to

about I we’ve mild And something So current XXX%. the more lending. be appropriately are hard very embedded about the the our our below think a well – it in than outlook in have soft the appropriate that wouldn’t But presentation, of capture in landing current full-blown a we that clearly assumptions balances. talked of definitely is trajectory conservative reflect probability they numbers to course, can since

follow-up when guess And look like Noted. relatively just loan stayed pretty year-over-year at managed you well as on growth versus RWA growth RWA, you’ve I a flat.

of opportunities Basel? the about you. to should optimize out Fed the just that think managing still we with RWA? evolution how think about on there comes we into Are whatever Thank As capital, going

Yes.

So definitely there to still optimize. are opportunities

continuing work focus. big We’re a of hard, it’s very area to and

that for this the Some we’ve company, market yes, what real not perspective. but are of the we that that. the although particularly outcome, a obviously consequences a hoping from due passive might capital the said in are it’s that we to of is should believe environment. more that will capital in not clear reflected see We with not drivers that III additional And also a what we’re this the that unreasonably Basel happens. of are And in not that’s effects appropriate, There is material economic capital to case choices quarter some but numbers, call they as optimization other and making this of be of a are consequences headwind but are will zero. you There quarter’s result items, punitive RWA. be

you. it. Got Thank

is question of coming Glenn from from next Evercore the Schorr The ISI. line

may proceed. You

thank second. to I’m levered talk curious, you. Hi, a I loans want for

good of half half of these last better on year. avoiding the a done put job some the You’ve loans the these – for like

have on call part. your good Things gotten lot a So cheaper.

However, are sheets, bank of for consider up cheap balance to book. up with see pick the back if in? have big curious to the enough. in levels from lot not a this back things Do yourself kind And still yours, general available I’m gotten to back you of mucked how is have funding important activity banks?

Yes. of things A Glenn. couple there,

So for short better, Terms is answer business pricing is we’re better. are absolutely there. open

the have needed. We resources

look issue. overhang risks. system not No and the the handle We’re need there bit needs of a market We think a convinced that, that’s think overhang people is in to I activity the the to there. the true. overcome has and in to the narrative fully like is that forward numbers we’re and overhang, capacity no Also, that

So your point. recognize I

think the I it’s the of to activity. an we business not about concerned are point, but for perspective wide finance overhang open from bank’s particularly ability and interesting

Interesting.

a more maybe asking, So so. bit

at with trying letter, it or you I to out fin-tech. Is Maybe, think Maybe you a angles, competition just competitive that go In leave where that it. see landscape from backdrop? the much in for moats that competitive higher you. And low intense loud. worse, not just was last I’ll rate have about you talked better just while Okay. and we annual to Jamie, all

same. the it’s think I

have theirs. even basically the who the a lot of And rates the folks Walmart services folks. of and You in are help fin-tech and doing will obviously, world Apples, starting banking maybe hurt higher some some

forward. going competition tough expect we So

Okay, thanks.

the Gerard Cassidy of The RBC Capital from from next question is line Markets. coming

You may proceed.

Thank Jeremy. you. Hi,

Gerard. Hi,

payments equity mentioned over the write-downs, is times. going equity equity Can your you you took investment And out write-downs, that... you Jeremy, us growth in business share the if private obviously, some was that on assuming challenging I’m with through XX%. the

write-down a last It a this was wasn’t year. year. gain It

it. I got

a write-down there thought there. was I Okay.

Okay.

Let me sorry that. make about that clear.

Can JPMorgan? with Very the good. equity with to in is us you investments? a – the there sticking that. Thank maybe your it private equity really are an when equity just about Can you Jamie. loan moment. book? markets think And share private risks you, – for where Or just you expand it upon from Is

a Sorry, want is to things. take that? me do couple of you Yes, this

primarily an payment alternative right. function that of part mark the is a some initiatives. that previously. management is this just investment we of of kind of up So internally fact of accounting the Jamie is This investment we is the sale got standard were year-on-year as The because in an to headwind forced developed that our

and throughout lot like of So on anyway, point space? the general across there it’s because point about And well, Investor equity and The is quarter. talked that guess exceptionally important so that rates, higher are how is fine. Did core and is performing the your question forth. services there hear value-added correctly? is write-down so but both a also And a this I feeling the Day private at fees off and in small paying that business because of I strategy we that

of these terms companies these have down many having? are companies elevated risk Is in just valuations come so struggles of their there obviously, seen to And lending any considering any Jeremy. correct, That’s lending, some the of considerably. they

Yes. manage quite that’s I think as tightly a risk a that company. mean I we

and financial of effectively they sector we a could like little normalized cycle. on the discipline what non-bank have probably as wholesale exposure look bit now. higher the defined. feel our we the which credit to is obviously And than charge-offs we through are what zero, are sort have thought But course, Our about we with what of confident books.

a good question, questions a loss loan quarter. Two that. you did guys reserve then that follow-up And this Great. as building job to up

the into First, management the reserve in second, decision-making for up was of takes your of much of Credit the a are exam reserve. And case, the that reserve results account? build the quantitative February. of the part always Shared Does building released versus buildup National more some how overlay base

that. say answer, oversimplifying I’ll mean, that give I Yes. a but I’m would I you lot.

simplify. Over

know. yes, of intents did of I The for the I Yes, quarter-on-quarter. management not purposes all sort change conservatism overlay and got it.

way I think think Gerard. that’s about best to the that,

– Natural sure then And yes, ahead. go

The our affect Credit will materially. National thing Shared results not

Jamie. good. Very Thank you,

The of from from line Ken Jefferies. is coming Usdin question the next

You may proceed.

regime. or Hi, NII if the ongoing of thanks. us mitigation us Good morning. the efforts I’m pending on just the any, – parts the RWAs it’s for How do of type the about help points your income on business? all capital statement, what the you help you trading effects if wondering that advance of understand we’ve we made in already can has, understand whether can

Yes.

just So if take one. that I

assume going mortgages, in to take how affect really single that It we and not And affect much. loans, access Do day, we’re Just it we today. in doesn’t every manage does might that, hedge it growth X but modest have RWA. like to not the it – business stuff CVA derivatives, businesses, RWA.

And a lose we and a somehow down still will of a the little bit – in are they I this, be so there the little X of tight. road they And reopening and day, we don’t very will build markets. bit opportunity And that. securitization in think biggest the reopen.

scenario reserve in that terms of that rule the in baseline? Can of us process. understand quarter quarter on just – gave ahead Just rate X% of on last get reserving follow-up, X.X just unemployment gave you does analysis still peak this recession? you kind the And to to? XQ thumb Okay. you average relative where of for And mild potential average coming the then your that does in quarterly back fourth builds help to stand us one this the you

is of change to base possibilities relative why almost make it base weight is worse. could hypothetical other It case. case the And get and scenarios. But case we at just saying that about course, got if in is. than weighting. you which case, a adverse a if X% deteriorates, benchmark, it worse. review, The better itself average results. you’ll more. get in a all reserve once – the just Jeremy hits didn’t base actual the where At are We keep mind, I then probabilities worse get still like all That’s you higher you all is it look there, numbers. got That’s would need is real relative the good it our billion okay, we’re case, I Can and When unemployment, case, charge-offs that is simple? Then probabilities got you X% all that’s we unemployment. to the These it like is, base probability adverse, have that wins. and closer weighting, or $X could assume moving the and it we

it – every and slightly different break to cases, and slightly it’s different case etcetera. but this does of And so we bank a out, differently, weighting base bank describe, every and has slightly hard adverse and

And possible. so make to it as we’re just as trying simple

to is of ahead this at Yes, hear challenge way going income charge-off. The that we’re you. that effect time I statement the have

all that. we’re to that. But fit trying So for just I Thanks, Jamie. appreciate

any And once adverse, relative the be expect before charge-offs. $X have of base you’d to adding gets you case you billion reserves where to

Exactly. Right.

question the what less than that case. question might your extent out And Jamie downward was of interest. growth, is this some answer says, flow-through driven of much sort the Implied in just is the it, central the billion? but of all a loan payment lot driven is does as by it quarter’s a provision in on maybe of of the because be to Hey, it by to little bit, of down to $X a build Ken,

say, little payment subject billion. that a the could is You $X caveat science, that on this to bit some or is down there not that

that. all for Thanks Understood. Yes.

of from line question Stanley. is Graseck Morgan the The Betsy next coming from

You may proceed.

morning. good Hi,

Hey, Betsy.

are about help you about can to through deliver are back a understand how positive predict it’s about needing to still thinking you NII. hard leverage? this I operating where and to already the really year. pulls. there has about we get can’t and are thinking peel bit line, pushes wanted Can markets line you expense opportunities operating touch? Obviously, know as base I leverage? you how you elements weaker to you such delivering of be how invested if us managing And so go rev the a the you Where talked little are understand expense potentially that

Sure.

which you or to expense, I down environment it across some the have better in that we three So, worse volume break respond category and revenue-related addressing sense, the our to thereby tend you categories. operating know, because pre-symmetrically are as our a – mean obviously, we And and is contribute we leverage. to expenses highlight as should

other Day, next printing decline, year’s words, want example, more that for on probably $X like number billion. are but finding we ultimate this you in in year, probably the we and year-on-year change flat. we So, will still numbers, expense, to the something assuming outcome, XX, it’s we the show the year-on-year on whereas In Investor Page close at and volume revenue-related are more

the to while the of mix the quite year-on-year change So, ‘XX dollar in comparable, is ‘XX, is different of sort sort ‘XX outlook to actually. ‘XX

the example, volume expense being environment for, about leverage. for number we the that’s and of long significant would in so contribute to revenue-related type up current would outlook, operating you that expect and wound a the are that we in budgeting And if drop

it, at we For worked revenue just the invest are as cycle. we the And that, through always know, environment bad. as is we And hard whether the of have you rest good generating efficiency. or

so should plans that the And changes short-term investment broadly, environment. really in our sensitive be to

of of certain change particular, that of the the the in in what investments course, marketing a types And in cycle be business, to card we Of may those of the like of downturn. company are equal. math NPV lower expect modified produce the making things could future core things get both to environment the strategic and investment, of downs investments all the the secure But ups we not else and... because the to going are that

IRR around of a one leverage JPMorgan for the capital you maybe room of of the increase there been And years? as operating for and level absorb generate? out a be question we us side, capital those on help capital stock. understand next has that’s reason and the capital burden through bear an for stock will to Maybe couple on debate of Day, expecting it ROTCE you the that’s march. still but gives bigger the more you you some to of charges, operating on investments. you leverage could what obviously and debate incremental you target Investor is part And capital on go points are the the better And the deliver kind asking today, hit it’s that’s could Okay. question unfair absorb As to the positive given

confident and quite in environment, economy, capital But increase real said too. the still want, it. game not into expectation the III It’s you company’s Got am in let ability number will we I higher of question. It’s costs answer feel into outcomes unreasonable mean and whether sense XX% is first answer is what capital not the numerator have of target outcome. I the just other Jamie to have increase it’s now. factors super that our it’s that talked absorb that’s our expansion, about of leverage which and But me not much a it say, And we views to generate kind and course, remind we but I there this the quarter that the Basel can possible impossible going we would returns And those the a too. denominator specifically. the of of produce of cycle. goes end just current fair incorporating ‘XX. requirements that The question how right to with of XX.X% operating some the quickly that may that of question. you good about

Thank you.

line Mayo Wells question of next The Fargo coming is from Mike Securities. from the

You may proceed.

the are I Frank you business each X your just the of make decade $X and been billion deals in increase as news, that’s for recognize money track record I last that and investing in about the $XX relates Hi. it to guide XX and there. wondering one-fifth the model over more XXXX. am your year evolving discipline years was says billion But your to financial expenses money acquisition what of are that that the to you strong in spending you pursued,

So, on anything fraud, that. you deal. financial can’t in if two So, fraud, about And do And it’s in it’s details only but discipline. the can’t resources attention. really purchase a I there And there still go price days, Frank I okay? you know about is and look, diverse you management – get earn question the is

these is is sometimes as you specifics them? other like Day, deals? of years “Look, way you go but at to are waste said, who strategy, diligence? And recognized, the in don’t go year? like accountable a Who billion when want are the to that you who And growing.” due a couple this which and is have you or strength of is another investments Frank expect or lines, when you these you you deal And does XX all Investor to? for Jamie, acquisition you investments But different of business going investment ultimately, when ago as just it are innovating them? ultimately, to right, relates you guys, going money doesn’t the some the deal $XX spend runs accountable across sources maybe Who who ultimately it? the accountable Who So, negotiates the who

let’s Mike, at. very Obviously, say, concerned a we good question, which always

all complacency talked that. and We about things like have always

XXX complacency is do have don’t year, you we to our we depth. company make And to a to are bat and anything. terrified the don’t which errors times is up – be when And you errors. obviously, bureaucracy, that So by are burdened getting stasis going then want

So, you an to the careful you have firm. make like error be cripple very you when

disciplined are you see We in of very ways. and a lot that different

in You leverage our see book. lending

success the see You investments. of our

our it see You and products of the in services. quality

see also our it’s diligence. acquisitions centralized but are – done due are in team things. a in that it’s extensive And different the There the by businesses, an it all You – these for does acquisition. no so

does does it. The it. business team centralized the So,

will XX thing comfortable. We this been out there quite like that. the responsible like are in the lesson litigation. years, always the we are tell started is learned people business. But And it the you doing are something And obviously, And who for have point, of we when people one lessons here doing just at are we learned. we

is – ugly. the that the when of bad, report acquisition, And they people, goods, did to back. expect they So, they responsible, business all us we they the the are talk

this obviously, another, mistake. was. a was everything never one looking great And way huge in how thing are it for or We

Let me follow-up on that.

that to So, the relates inorganic growth.

payments which that focus relates across growth, different such lot the to cuts I business, business know as a is the it As organic of a lines. in

the be who which responsible – payments, invest commercial, great is be way got those? if Sometimes can that across? it is for be could could consumer, investment So, it PE or more sort it’s XX there, is it you bank, cuts it’s for can of investment be a XX payments. you as responsible everything management, the could aggregate asset Who you in organic business, the data, which that in be

to just So, clarified. be

the I and checks Day Jen, So, to debit, stuff consumer-related which comes and saw this Investor all reporting bunch to I a is Marianne an clear stuff and Daniel, that the and presentation Takis, you in when it’s the wholesale at think and credit, about it that say would of on responsibilities, processing, are quite counts across is merchant whole area that company. payments, payments those direct the

And you done they not time we more will and jointly way, spends if which That okay. that. on the by way you – – want just me. the that which group working make and payments up year, a are to acquisition, see all invest Daniel it’s – decided this group So, cases, working there has and to if an they

But year you have in then about the of to a third is follow-up to certain back-ended front-loaded less certain you expense there. my billion And growth, start, back-ended last mean lot How comment. a the and $X benefits to row Slide those for benefits. going of I relative past? XX your I first expenses is the mean general this see that of that’s level comfort are

things are that’s are certain we stuff weren’t Day, for changed more to – like that that. thing do, comfortable. if Investor we Totally comfortable pretty at you pretty open, every branch and every try like we tech to like for hire, they identify are all cloud, There and we guys can’t working, bank that, But every we the that you we getting infrastructure, them. which we we show of

half of branches we number. ourselves or and – half, quite the any specific but that with every – very marketing That’s dollar so question day guess, is didn’t or kind pretty a cut that the billion. accurate things, not there us specific of for return, ask if we we part, the $X give half we $X managers that, that is most again, if wealth It’s out. certain So, not stuff. very dollars a spending that billion that – and many how in, And are were we at

you. Thank Alright.

line from next coming of Research. from is the The Wolfe Steve question Chubak

may You proceed.

morning. good Hi,

with I in outlook the investment So, wanted on to start the trading off for a banking question businesses.

pipelines trading strong recession cited, additional banking of color year. context in expect you see what given from some And the rate hoping you moderation you We significant elevated. you or are similar terms of still hearing scenario QT, still Jeremy, a proxy activity the clients, the you difficult inflection would coming corporate have activity. Just Do anticipate can the investment in mild not? outlined, on I in was question you volatility especially some comps just side, provide in in trading to the facing are you when

Sure. Steve. Thanks

So, let’s banking first. do

as the we was have so if relatively the for the change and obviously, of that how things important could be look valuations And in possible raise the environment to investment banking economic actual into DCM here you of XXXX, that with we is quickly as wallet was about sure, be rates to and or of to XXXX, do it’s That valuations not in pessimistic optimistic. in XXXX. will debt to that market. specifically it the conceivably worse are make And the affects than it it’s even well. comfortable all part levels. But about year. XXXX, one outlook. think interesting as just people business right as been issue necessary now the capital that respect I with the decide to open note super a So, But it’s And banking getting relative XXXX, as deals that’s to sort conditions of M&A affects just significant, elevated from thing weak very declines is is

banking there a think in I XXXX helping that, in world. up winds actually chance investment the is So, that

that side, obviously, we Coming better saw. course, expected year, are the were things Of very actually out some we on expecting had we of we than pandemic, numbers had Similarly, the a thinking had than so the markets don’t strong the strong. are know. of normalization another of And what But XXXX about. lot those we more themes. since markets were

the with active community had a I little markets. and always we us think That helps relatively did well. management bit. And orderly volatility continuing

seem hand, bit and the one towards less As not be be on obvious, little other there volatility be a And trading X.X%, quite XXXX, going is environment themes some to a is a rate And percent look to more the markets probably headwind. will environment. like that bit opportunities rate the is those But it’s of X% orderly. maybe where away. of we continue could zero than little

So, don’t we of course, know.

see. will We

I will to we think in happens. – normalization some the probably strong would will and have It’s very see markets, really numbers expect there. are what but you we see

That’s really helpful color. And just for my follow-up on of III. finalization Basel

here. I in and Jeremy, requirements at you Sorry, peers. hinted you myself December higher capital But moving strongly couldn’t help speech, for

in Basel alluded one III in the of also comments response that your You to punitive. be can of or potentially very the finalization questions

and the really eventual additional any I you how the planning finalization could to the the areas scenario proposal, mitigation. was offer just speak absence can of for you hoping on of your detail Given

those actions really be one or can’t risk, sources headwinds? some RWA biggest that issue potential can I the What is area of inflation mitigated. you confusion of which think op to offset of really are the one that take is the of

Yes.

in like to thing, system significant worst parts And I it’s capital strong would detail sense a version think how the where punitive world very point hard is different of about the is whole. doesn’t until we that moving lot And mitigate this to requirements really that of today, reason It’s that Steve, us. of outcome closely. talk of to the increase get of a out question system to of the you the mean make but just you under the all in to given actual just I as to the studied the love how this that into potentially proposal. I a more here, issue an we So, increases, detail get just see discuss the

want just say we So, yes, to But Jamie, please. that.

I those parts, mean you G-SIFI, just, know let’s they look, all guys are. the trading book, operators’ just that CCAR, the what see moving capital, the

there. get business We don’t ratio. figure have and we to we We like then we stuff modify will what when capital with deal our will And that. it’s necessary increase them out to think

are that. quite on We clear

numbers press One on we loss-absorbing put capacity. the of the of top total our was the new release

I now of have point, mean is thing $XXX like all when we $XXX So, billion. almost really, enough. $X at one is that, trillion those billion liquidity,

see just it international international is. what And requirements. through laws, it their going – to so their work are let’s but They

hoping the is nice. supposed are would is that America same international. corrected. to as G-SIFI be We be That

We if happens. that will see

tell number to high, what So, to have let’s are if do going just guess. going see. We too about And are the to don’t is we you we it.

there to time to Just point, bit is be road a Jamie’s adjust, it’s that Jamie’s a to expansion minor is it of clear, a will from sort see like important long just NPR will… point let’s then supports to there that, expand be we to – the to so on what and

so Fair my enough. Thanks for much questions. taking

O’Connor from Bank. coming The line from Deutsche question is of the next Matthew

may proceed. You

or looking given you you securities just on Obviously, yield is the think given ago years parts, securities time, lot at same flowing curve is of do the Good cash quite a inverted rate the lower guys are the less morning. How of managing depending the the a than And book couple frankly. outlook part deposits? most was what the of environment. it at book,

Yes.

you securities $X.X like book things outcome investing, an but deposits the loans deposits. of and of trillion excess like remember, have And So, that. is and $X trillion basically

So rate exposure, manage all manage – to these it various interest things. and we

down which quarter for when going to say are of and the every what how we and the at to that. and we to deposits stuff ACM are need loan book we numbers, going percentage much you then we JPMorgan’s much than it, we all in to the we the it rates you loans – buy, coming Obviously, people. today. sell, is forecast, am lost invest lower and liquidity, get coming higher give as you size so in, much is how an I is see And And other based not going you most forecast what what like upon much adjust time

conservative of We kind too. there are

question. picture bigger a guess I

selling. curve really buying, is guess have rates thought And should at? We X-year XX-year you and thoughts such drop seen much than I I on so you out. lower people of to the are wondering if driving in had even a the buying who aren’t banks further was really they what’s and said, part be most And as

do. get we other the should But every answer, to it, We we We curve. plans, get pension is doing, doing. course, part everybody Yes, at look what the of look of that. are what We at at banks look governments.

in positions. have this in I call, different earlier I banks mentioned think are

don’t. finance have may books. Some their to to securities We loan sell obviously

from important. in So, today. That different Jeremy curve six months it’s same is very not the now And yield as out, people will are position. a be pointed that

be when forecast. lot be spread. will look Maes OAS Ginnie kind We are a forward, it’s that While it there with investment would is of opportunities. we actually of to know the when not our there bought we portfolio, wrong. invested use XX We And a

take – you you because sold securities. the you think attractive $XX-plus securities one have reasons it reinvest when we We of more billion of can that losses, gives

Got it. Thank you.

from line the Andrew coming is Générale. The of Lim question final from Société

You may proceed.

questions. Thanks for morning. my good Hi, taking

a the of CECL? builds one I am credit year. the more quality. top my So, this on out how commentary That’s you with soon. should the at reserve end for it to out Could give specifically year, shape shape respect bit out quite a question. this guess, guess I cards color us that for guessing NCOs, should credit of first on giving first us I on Thanks topping

the unchanged all forth. your are in unchanged and assuming so the and all are unchanged Just property assumptions macro are assumptions

CECL Yes. $X in quarters Andrew, I Jamie’s than a where there few world we outlook think have economic of like quite is a is in color there billion a is some it today. about decent and well, over bit, worse think I talked terms the

to you outlook going for loan it giving not But it’s business get evolution allowance. today definitely of an environment. loss the evolve function into the will are a of as appropriate and sequential of We the

Sure.

Okay.

made NII then. a into down drill square few want just Let’s to comments there, I you Jeremy.

I still in increases heard I sequential you talking NII. you if So, think are correctly, about

So, billion I towards looking $XX guess XQ. like for plus maybe XQ, even

and say, we for way off costs cuts maybe So, sharp I and increase get a few fund it? Fed as $XX deposit the guess about we XH well. then as, Is we are should a be hitting drop billion rate thinking that about

Yes. No.

So, Andrew, let un-controversially no doubt. wouldn’t there, just say really me

somewhat XX out. the we at fourth sequential a rate the telling plays quarter about comments or XX, were for ADX world our exiting conclusion, there markets drawing run declines in somewhere And as whatever. we that address sequential are full and are you the are of obviously there year, where we telling some are what a which my function the increases of correctly So, we sort which to in are is from slide, obvious

adjust, make in growth. we perpetuity. Does will project into to normal those things We sequential don’t are the saying Once future simply that sense? return

No. Absolutely, you Thank sense. makes That’s Right. Yes. great. for that that.

Yes. Thanks.

no like have I queue. back Mr. hand call the questions in to additional would to now We Barnum.

very you Thank much. it. That’s

much. you Thank very

talk will We all you soon. to

concludes That you participating. all today’s conference. Thank for

You may disconnect at this time.