JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 12 Jan 242023 Q4 Earnings call transcript

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] We will now go to the live presentation. Please stand by. would Chairman turn and and Officer, Barnum. I to call Chief time, Jeremy Chase's JPMorgan CEO, this like the to over Financial At Jamie Dimon; Mr. Barnum, go ahead. please

available to the in morning, The good and disclaimer website, you, refer presentation the Thank is please and on everyone. back. our

special of $X.X XX%. of and on and $XX.X in assessment income reported delivered Page billion These of net EPS an losses firm The billion, Starting of results billion the included $X.XX FDIC X. ROTCE of securities million net $X.X on $XXX revenue investment corporate.

more On Page impact X, our results. we we out relevant. have Similar quarters, to the have where called on prior quarter Republic First of fourth

to that also business. we of have note in which You'll CCB appropriate the certain lines allocated deposits, now were previously

First billion income. net $XXX the of million and Republic expense For $X.X revenue, $XXX contributed of million of quarter,

NII was $X.X was by $XX.X focusing And markets billion up or firm-wide X%. revenue revenue Now the NIR and was or or higher on $XXX year-on-year. Markets of Markets quarter results $XXX Republic, predominantly up X%, up ex driven $X.X or First XX% million ex excluding was billion rates. fourth million X% billion up

net was driven $X.X the in related which real largely and name billion deterioration growth to or wholesale, $XX.X were $X.X including assessment single the billion, reflecting XX% Expenses $X.X charge-offs a build card technology. charge-offs FDIC valuations were were costs reserve the current card and primarily outlook growth $X.X up The and net reserved. $XXX in exposures And in inflation million. predominantly up commercial predominantly billion in the billion of and estate loan and driven by were wage build year-on-year and compensation, billion by special bank. higher driven front Net commercial for of by previously office in net reserve

and of $XX billion, revenue ROTCE net XX%. Looking full X. The reported delivered firm an EPS Page the billion, and at we on $XX.XX income of of year results $XXX

X. On We the primarily up III a and to continued XX the firm Basel by modest income, of ratio CETX capital prior Page of offset pace versus points balance with partially net by RWA, quarter towards the gains on OCI driven ended sheet builds lower a the end and distributions XX%, as game requirements. quarter capital basis proposed

driven our starting X. Page CCB spend and Now spend Total businesses, account consumer growth, card to stable. credit let's remained year-on-year on debit by go with was up and strong X%

reported income Turning on now to CCB net the billion which up of was revenue Republic. of $X.X $XX financial First billion, year-on-year. results excluding X%

& Wealth Banking by by year-on-year. Client Management, NII strong market and year-on-year, In average offset lower investment up X% up with largely XX% on balances higher down deposits revenue inflows. performance higher net were rates, driven X% reflecting assets was

record been it's retail for new year fact, money. In net a

In predominantly of the this by Home higher loss NII. and revenue Lending, was quarter absence driven the an up year versus $XXX prior million MSR

lease Moving services balances, was income. offset by driven on Auto, NII to Services up auto year-on-year Card higher revolving X% card lower by & partially revenue higher

normalization were and we as up continued in ] up primarily in were largely REVOLVE market XX% and billion acquisition outstandings and compensation, as And while advisers investments Card well gained ]. inflation to employees up share auto, billion, $X.X including bankers, by XX% of Expenses were wage continued an of [ in technology. margins. marketing technology increase XX% year-on-year as retaining driven and account $X.X strong originations due in strong [

reserve normalization predominantly card. growth $XXX card. in due performance to in $X.X credit In loan costs million That quarter, build by driven largely credit terms were billion up $XXX of this net million which continued of were charge-offs, reflected year-on-year

billion. Investment of the of year income Next, XX% ended XX% CIB of $X.X $XX we was The year-on-year. and a X.X%. IB ranked X. billion $X.X with were up on Page Banking year-on-year, fees the net also revenue reported #X on revenue wallet CIB of up billion share

In to weak equity with XX% quarter up up year compared advisory, XX%. a up Underwriting debt up X%. significantly prior fees fees were and were

with are timing We of extent well encouraged healthy a pipeline, normalization markets uncertain. headwind level starting markets but and and as capital the M&A capital year remains a the by are we activity, announced remains as the the of

Payments up XX% revenue year-on-year. billion, $X.X was

client investments, was growth flat offset credits. it equity deposit-related fee Excluding predominantly was as by

was billion, lower a Moving which income year-on-year. X%. record quarter, X% rates securitized strong last quarter Fixed offset in products strong fourth was to our $X.X Markets. and Total up by revenue up quarter revenue was It off year. partially was business, a another coming

million Equity Markets revenue-related of compensation. $XX Credit reserve Securities and Services costs lower was revenue and timing $X.X X% revenue by billion was up predominantly cash. the X% down year-on-year. billion build $X.X Expenses of million. net driven $XXX year-on-year of charge-offs $XXX in derivatives were reflecting of a of by net X% million, up driven were

X% year-on-year growth, Page Commercial credits. was Moving to of impact billion the by of X. offset by Payments offset partially of lower deposit-related client $X.X by on was was Commercial Banking driven of largely NII $X.X billion net driven higher reported year-on-year up Revenue rates The $X deposit by billion. the income up largely balances. fee revenue X% Bank where

up client investments and XX% Banking markets and an increase capital was by million Expenses reflecting activity. the year-on-year billion office $XXX expense, including M&A increased in well primarily higher as employees, front Investment X% revenue up were Gross technology driven and as of including year-on-year of Markets volume-related of acquisition. new $X.X impact

quarter-on-quarter. nonoperating driven primarily for client balances demand year-on-year CRE alternatives clients loans year-end. activity. as continue opt quarter-on-quarter X% impact were payoff loans reflecting X% have down lower continue utilization flat to And as loans higher an on and flat deposits originations muted at X%, revolver remain are cautious. as seasonally Loans were as for were C&I rates higher down and new down were by and higher-yielding clients to lower deposits Average

million build of reserve outlook. net and of driven were $XXX $XXX Finally, by credit valuation net million real commercial our deterioration costs in million, a including a charge-offs $XXX estate

X. business, And then on our AWM to complete lines Page of

million Management up income net on higher loans. predominantly with margin year-on-year of of inflows offset lower margins levels, $XXX XX%. Revenue reported lower spreads Wealth reflects billion and wider in strong average of fees market X% management & by net on offset partially Asset higher NII. deposit balances, driven and was NII by $X.X decrease pretax The by

including up billion and in investment China performance-based the the $X.X XX% driven impact higher acquisition our Expenses continued Asset of of banking incentives, by adviser Management compensation, private JPMorgan continued largely in growth closing year-on-year were global shares. teams,

inflows across and income inflows positive for $XXX $XXX year. liquidity, inflows equities and for year. long-term we the quarter In billion net net of net the quarter, $XX $XX for billion, the and fixed the full of billion For full billion were saw

And $X.X AUM driven we record quarter-on-quarter. XX% trillion levels. were trillion inflows $XXX and up have and asset by client loans net year-on-year client were market of deposits assets $X of both X% for quarter-on-quarter, the continued net And of finally, and year. billion up X% were higher inflows up

$XXX due Corporate and billion Revenue million loss mentioned were rates Turning $X.X higher reported to of Corporate securities was year-on-year. of up special Page to mix. upfront. year-on-year of losses of included million was on billion up billion $X.X a and was by a million. driven billion year-on-year assessment. net balance net the compared FDIC sheet with loss up $X.X I $X.X net impact NIR NII billion $XXX the the X. million a expenses And $XXX of investment of net predominantly $XXX $X of loss

for outlook the to pivot NII Page XXXX, let's that, on XX. With starting with

We expect Markets ex approximately $XX NII XXXX to billion. be

assumes the forward this follow drivers, the Going currently includes that the X curve, which through outlook year. rates cuts

On to deposits, we very modestly be expect from current balances down levels.

lower will normal repricing sensitive, deposit decrease NII, and decrease remain therefore, should rates margins. rates more resulting we lower While asset pressure, in

expect help as impact but of card loan will in We lower muted. pace likely rates. loan offset the Outside of same this the to XXXX. of remain at strong some should card, growth Still, growth not continue

It's implies of with quarterly meaningful XXXX, Combining NII ex guidance rate some what a $XX with time. for throughout sequential year you of run full just declines approximately been reported Markets quarterly that important telling to billion $XX we've billion. note that the consistent we

surrounding that NIR. which, it as previously be remain. of for of NII, expect to the in of Markets should total And keep outlook we highlighted And NII, full mind always, billion on sources $XX uncertainty think in the that approximately many in NII the increase offset year, we've you largely an reflecting as

Now let's turn XX. to expenses on Page

about adjusted expect We $XX expense billion. XXXX to be

Day Investor business. detail share You'll between growth And in this Generally, you both we terms slide, and and to you'll see that more the opportunities hear of of terms are, returns. expense see can both in course, and now greatest where the in terms, is line percentage then. by at aligned dollar of available on provided and

firm page, biggest growth is line we've the Thematically, writ drivers. business of side call right-hand some On I the the driver might highlighted large. what

defined of narrowly continues and of XXXX. But expense increased company, that, with profitability, about company increase addition, billion is a $X improved growth outlook of Within volume across across million coming the compared and represents in ongoing NIR result about a to the of additional in as categories. the $XXX gains to the revenue-related range growth produce which share

comparable bankers, increase the quantum technology as and last branches, year's themes: driven is is advisers, investment to all [indiscernible]. same as The by of increase well

business XXXX in a rate increase exit modest lower a with as of a produces integration efforts. Republic First Net-net, expenses but result run significantly

Finally, through on lower the flowing as some inflation despite inflation a of effects categories. significantly our outlook we most economy see whole, in residual still expense

that exit year-on-year page conditions expense It's to the during company. run worth portion the future growth to that in and response profitability fourth the growth in executed, a included the XXXX growth of We been business general to the of already noting and rate. rate on in include both illustrate decisions significant the that and XXXX market investment support both is have quarter increase the

rate we and to XXXX and wrap turn continue the to On let's with Investor to Now guidance. card up. consistent Page charge-off expect below credit, Day cover net X.X%, XX be credit

leave what income XXXX We're possible. of what to in very revenue accomplished who year without year thank items. was, an made despite proud notable producing some and this outstanding everyone noting it So we we significant closing, it want record and net shouldn't

At as we by X% an indicated which overearning, XXXX the we the same target. that ROTCE to above through-the-cycle our were throughout time, extent is emphasized

has outlook path be the we our returns. us shouldn't normalization that beginning As surprising to XXXX, towards down march to of turn our it

of management expected geopolitical uncertainties, of this returns about for through tailwinds and remains and team laser-focused of But And despite to environments. superior produce the ability economic this communities. and optimistic franchise's range remain XXXX the executing clients the shareholders, dissipation on presence broad we significant a

Q&A. the open let's that, with line for And

Matt For of the from first Deutsche [Operator line O'Connor Bank. Instructions] our coming question, from it's

out there? the updates Thanks on comments for medium-term all that interest put net Any income. on you've that outlook the

updating. I'm particularly not

$XX And I that think I put exactly we describe wouldn't that you're referring out to outlook. there. number billion an that as

to the more think number. bit that little a quantify just extent a not revise so I it's overearning, particularly out number necessary try the put there to the to of we

I that below XX just page prepared billion the and and some But point in significant XX, sequential highlighted highlighted I rate decline. that look on would you we guidance that exit at and implies $XX again, the of full as out, exiting as year remarks when obviously

So you that year maybe XX on next ever can topic when or the in later to and we of XX. year. the see us that in is marching or the get sense, not for path a to kind Whether

quarter. billion buybacks, of this Okay. strong on process bought couple then some capital a separately, And but uncertainty dollars also of the your generation on stock just proposals? regulatory you given What's back thought

And question. our organic general Good have capital I we in obviously that lot Yes. exactly framed based the generation. in it correctly a think of on you've buyback capacity sense

So capital apply. will the hierarchy normal

plan low and with just right about finalization But bit SCB the of we've a do reminder, to continue for been as probably net the as rules. buyback a that seen of the And that buffer, building now, a buyback, now of we a of to quarter also need modest $X us you've volatile. little and pace uncertainty have to that quite of kind in has on the light number remain is a billion consistent a the probably you bit about said, talked

in mind. So that's another keep factor need that to we

Next, of line McDonald we'll Autonomous Research. to John from go the

the into in of assumptions? quarter? the Jeremy, loss how could And what's and loan of little of releases outlook average reserve kind baked you in macro played on change more give any reserve a terms weighted builds into dynamics color the this

quarter, this that's John, Actually, pretty like all Yes. quiet.

as driving I the the average So to of the recognizing in really numbers, you see X.X% our between is can unemployment average the being little elevated, it outlook and we didn't been number remains weighted skewed levels. downside We in still current is skew weighted and which rate and skew our and has something obviously, which have the the big difference macro X.X%. bit the revisions what's the just a see off that peak X.X central think risks that still unemployment outlook, like any

follow-up it's matter the versus like helpful. little a impact just color that give for cuts, sensitive Fed but amount Okay. a you some And are like does much flex sensitivity X you on maybe how Could if X, I of it X, a how to complicated, few the bit cuts the know first the then to be thinking might And on you what's you're cuts? outlook couple of when of X? like Fed us a of NII.

do to happy Yes, John. that, Sure.

this to think So look I way the EAR to probably do at is our best numbers.

don't until lower. a on estimated the going that to an but bit you Q, little basis, So we as it's know, update be

So like as opposed I to X.X. think X.X something

So is in number just about round $X EAR. billion

in maybe that noted, I than I way EAR, we than I that bigger. gives would little number the [indiscernible] think we've because say But That's the think work with. been to [indiscernible] maybe empirical asset -- to model we be lags higher the be I you as it. that. bit little just number even do would sensitive. remain a hopefully, the just you And higher a little enough a empirically, though do one seeing is quantify

Jim Seaport Global from of line the Mitchell Securities. to go we'll Next,

you just that? a get cuts, deposits? all the assumptions that do Can the does in in dynamic you, we Maybe in about Jeremy, to NII just start deposits. discuss and then migration and on different a are on in way around question, growth if X change your How follow-up reprice thoughts the thinking layering

Yes. Both good questions.

reprice do So let's let's just first. --

bit dovish all the of taking product off effect level this think reprice, especially equal, a and of X these else I So environment little more the has Fed cuts reprice. pressure

of to At noninterest-bearing continue lower out expect to I continue And into bit the that same checking we of time, a out migration would and particularly ongoing wholesale, a environment. even of rate and savings into expect trajectory do migration, interest-bearing. little internal CDs in

you to would a of a and So when to as even it if cuts. expect X nonintuitive. in actually a bit example, nonintuitive a pay the as think continue people intuitive And that at gets actually CDs, little paid, for bit with world change result, rate like weighted migrating franchise, little change average with for into about beta-type look rate just trying but you little maybe deposit number that's if we kind in rates math consumer you're be higher that do a

in QT down, outlook then I in the the decline the the despite that to the to And having balances, of muted. consider quite later consistent growth modest that lower It's speculations you'll loan be slow terms our a balances note system outlook whole that And is very various expected said is be it as modestly with pretty in continues. yes, down when for about rate. you year which a

different our kind of customer based optimistic that ability agree little So margin with share at environment I bit across then to deposits is to our supportive obviously, And on continue for our businesses. be of you in the system-wide proposition we this take deposit all about more balances. a value

Next, we'll Merrill from Poonawala go to of the line Ebrahim Bank Lynch. of America

I guess maybe one question.

thoughts for Jeremy, and sure a your as the the love the I would but hear believe on outlook about if to the Jamie call, quoted worried saying to soft landing. Jamie's effect consumer has soft do when love hear, pricing think market you landing around, base, incorrectly? Or I'm you the are he resilient rate the hikes? customer of as your that and as statement, your the maybe, not market at Looking is expecting as I sees you lag increased at still would look I

Right.

Ebrahim. Okay,

a lot of exclusive. mutually I aren't things So actually think those

a this the think think, the I uncontroversial statement I probability one, evolved a landing. at outlook That's, consensus has of that soft So significantly to economic it's point. higher include

So whether that I is or it you consensus. issue, a separate believe is the think not but

about adjusts taking effectively where press are consumer of the consumers we the now metrics cash than how more buffers of they also And they're find behavior I of but resilience, the been question on that relevant consumers year we comments in spending call. are terms are were. in this spending a that, normal, normalized. see The in world that light that In less that into means go it, the all cash comfortable made the fact way some now new buffers have really the than as is

in trajectories take, So back take consistent think soft view one can that, the the just [indiscernible] about that to credit. but that a with always worry consumer and market. a speculate very else means, equal, labor I about step central important strong different it's a case strong modeling, ourselves remind obviously, all labor scenario we that could market do is landing strong And very

So world. the see we that's how

maybe a filtered step the And multifamily being taking there further, some of has around we CRE that been just see concern apartments. into whether

quality. areas what pretty of But any through You one, exposure, all bleed of sense us seeing office CI a are just we've parts you commercial of have in or seen a of, give retail in lending? other any multifamily large high particular

Yes.

ones the answer are there on big is aware we that we uncontroversially no, reason And do for kind in. multifamily, on bleed that while -- question some is pretty the of different that's the pressure short And in it's the actually good markets no So that multifamily. the through. of are us, from we of is

under less stuff supply-constrained pressure. more it's markets much in that is So higher-end

supply-constrained markets. multifamily you portfolio And know, affordable more as is our much

robust. there really And very remains performance so the

Erika line to of Next, the from we'll UBS. Najarian go

My on regarding a first with question the buyback. is that follow-up

You in printed XX% CETX the quarter.

net -- net every Again, that's net XX of RWA to a points on RWA produces growth, quarter. net income basis Your basis, your growth.

I'm wondering which $X in terms Jeremy, the a reconsider enough SCB, having Or will we June term? this clarity that could results, be for in what delayed? looking quite you that pace you're wait it DFAST BX sort need finalization, quarter. the Do of from could buyback seems that billion guidepost for, of you increasing the like over to be medium mentioned

understand what question, asking Erika, I Yes, it's you're why good a you're asking, it. and

I think clastic organic variety is be uncertainty. but decision-making uncertainty it's is generation, capital the a all strong right probabilistic that bit right? ingredients, uncertainty a factors, this cloud the answer about of under rule, in going And about ingredients the is little which requirements. that unsatisfying, to kind SCB of a finalization the Very you've are listed the the different of

other our obviously, priorities. buybacks using hierarchy capital for capital hierarchy, is we're always And at normal the of the are our bottom which done the after the

think a that do previously now. what is for a want I I obviously, well that. we pace with which So we we're under lot regime, said whenever we the modest flexibility stands, of and to may adjust But current that sticking have

the just everybody $XX of in follow-up, that 'XX? the Investment contemplate be comeback And billion could increase expecting a for does a seems as expenses to or significant for XXXX, that Banking

is yes. that of in bit little A there,

NIR volume talked increase year-on-year as outlook. that about see that I we think that category. an talk a So about revenue-related you in in my $X prepared and billion have remarks, result improved I noted of would category will you often And the

expectation and part our that continued the share Investment of in rebound Banking that. wallet is the So hope of of and

from of Fargo Next, to line Mike the we'll Securities. Mayo go Wells

that, in could expenses, before $XX with been this you year-over-year. that's color quite like to a seems and guidance a lot through up increase. visibility. your the X of billion give increase $X It know ago I without big So expenses just some of years we've on big if And billion

AI, of pay? upfront are that to So due give of get tech? just pickup? if to that that of that incentive much visibility, what How to you and how could billion expected the $X returns us due due much to much to is How

because I right, as Investor Day a Day. extra yes, from your the give will course, and Yes, answer of between you be the and you at will, Investor for important thanks hearing Mike, to now But noted, it's little transparency. question take question. more of And you're and bit us time I here to

structure go and the I'm And we the page to business. use line going through that follow on each of

increase we the X% CCB, driver with starting an had as which So about is dollar the biggest It's overall. it's year-on-year, last same year.

XXXX, key is new driver similar associated and XXX strategy branches, the we're a In number and the One we this branch staff built year. about that. planning for

engagement a our Marketing driver. card products. great We're great is demand opportunities, seeing in and also

in remains And CCB so And you know, and a as that focus wealth marketing. shows and priority. our up all big strategy

as payoffs just payoffs stakes. I evidence investments know, to results of worth quite Mike, some are right, CCB here, much are noting the as designed of of them about of think investment. that it's term, table and current we've longer our and produce some in But and are see our current bit talked of some you them a actually in short-term we

example, X deposit for in by XXX X% XXXX, accounts. an card And we've X checking active So We accounts. new over million we years, basis increased last the in net share points. market growth had had

current investing we've as that adviser the need. to for support and a new returns the So we're client the future. whole, advisers well about and sure good as they key be the company AWM, producing continued very that while of clients as have very said hiring both as happy their growth is a often making driver In all

in entire disruption accelerate long-standing it a a ecosystem based that bit bank ] the And the new outlook. did the driver to half fact in to The is we well and that interesting rate middle volume the the revenue-related our and opportunity to commercial the about and we tied strategy. saw the of innovation of and created impact across year of the the adds [ exit we also in story of year loans all new improved prior an middle economy have in that is pre-existing sense AWM, as market as the an revenue and the that that, clients bit of little an question of to kind that need on support little

So some to teams franchise. different parts onboard some took the we in opportunities key of

that domestically it's consistent and to And XXXX, then the pretty you hiring we really before, theme internationally. had as look including both into bankers, ones

story different. a The which think already bit recognizes aggressively position little lower, growth we've fact point also there CIB share the starting is in is both percentage very there The investing for which terms strong been I a time of very, payoffs produced share as in some has quite and our that business, the significant gains. payments meaningful

as driver to biggest effect. revenue-related want inflation, to in and our So of question, have really say again, avoidance for the NIR all as, the doubt as labor best where the core weakness in the sure a is we're result, absolutely to fully volume appropriate And increases prior CIB to granularly outlook. do and CIB the that improved of generic I upgrading strategy well tied talent of that despite of making looking this, strength all in the at very the areas and remains including

the of talked are on entire businesses across consistent investing haven't I money various that's bottoms-up though technology technology drivers it, pretty in and really all in that note though actually driven. you'll any it's Finally, because firm actually even of the in businesses. And about are even ways the actually spending the

platforms customer And those drivers as products, well modernization. with they've as are and consistent features new what been:

level happening otherwise. the at the and company, that's throughout So both app

about I company. is say about that closing, interesting, throughout expense large, which the talking to is in technology, the the higher see driver will being think the technology I we volume-related actually that things growth writ of point one And

a good here. was opportunity bit So thanks It give question, to Mike. color the you for more guys a

follow-up. have sort I'm Okay. here. still I

Sure.

can you're your it. you And you impact I Yes, asked before the and know of you AI spending this on talk just said I about technology approach?

You're careful. being

to your see want on dollars. a You return

a a But big on AI this should bit [indiscernible]. tech little make? tech much is your should more Just how it difference? much How make much How year? budget difference can year? meat last this the How be

sure. Yes,

we lot and mind. will AI point. stuff, don't of go for detail that a think I you maybe Day, But Investor this So point. won't addressed And on I save the I'll AI quantitative I the address if into

may AI that for in So of think we is and have as which you ] and company place of running on operating with priority reach a the committee, we partnership now to of strategy organization. this an the indication [ [indiscernible] aware, member actually the be the Lori the as all I technology

So think one excited a of little as where, on I very I -- this that about think we're being bit this. hand, the barbelled

some here technology with terms going the Chase. clearly for nothing, starting the be objects developers opportunities, in for significant very time, of not we're chasing There's increased not shiny same themselves JPMorgan in opportunity AI. At there. to significantly productivity We're

tangible We It's outcomes. an want to linked to do this in extremely disciplined way. very commercial very and

well-chosen and results. resources contained, and the is and actual high-impact And those making accountable cases list disciplined that's way we're right that we're of we ourselves sure for throwing a use pragmatic so at the on current have in focus holding extremely

Gerard we'll Cassidy Next, from go to Markets. of line RBC the Capital

something your are give X you why forward are year to income the for that cuts? you the little with behind insight rate outlook, you upcoming businesses Is you're it outlook Jeremy, is coming so customers and can cuts Can guys back assuming Or give Fed are economic fund you're forecast just rate why assuming, a cuts? their us us many curve? telling for your it net that the assuming interest X weaker? your you

more it's our We our forward curve always practice. Yes, answer interesting, there. were in but the Gerard. for outlook, the use just just I what's wish and that's

a attrition. have to some also pointed outlook, out obviously, follow-up, And deposit going good. you in Very as Okay. then you're the

You had some, of course, in XXXX.

been is hasn't us on Can surprised some the deposit you your insights disruptive base the QT markets? that hasn't second, liquidity in for it guys -- organization? on And more having impact the you are to QT give the

we Yes. Good elements you've I obviously complicating in that of heard mean is the focus I question, current about think QT one big a talk environment. have lot. and the Gerard. Jamie this a

in this that's math size by the sense I offset think of equal, hopefully from reduction X all withdrawing system-wide RRP. is math is that of last In the months been else the in the year, that the deposits. QT, a

been supportive system-wide deposits. of that's so And

into the there's at this it's start lower of QT But that XXXX, levels, RRP a is that to a is down we go going As bit know, little -- the market's case, at you expectation is that less some may point and also so year. slowing tailwind. as be

So of from have still cushion levels reasonable some -- and and we RRP. reserves

down shrinkage partially think that reason But So be is some that's year share. Fed we of with our offset what the our does. going in to this that watch of in be of to terms by the I take the system-wide to can is part half outlook for deposits second the also, modestly deposits maybe interesting belief

Next, line Morgan to the Stanley. Manan go Gosalia from of we'll

been lot of rebound. capital talk There's a markets about

the year you're starting you're changing the across you noted healthy conversations more having You what you're seeing us DCM? the -- is M&A, give the color there? with that environment how rate ECM in on rate a some and And Could in pipeline. the how change

Yes, sure.

this as you for capital markets. environment dovish else So equal, supportive more is, rate know, all of course,

if the bit, in equity you start the the and a with helps higher you that helps. go little recent if ECM, So markets into rally details

vintage I challenges whatever. been XXXX of post-launch or some modest IPO think with the there have terms in performance

in pipeline, little a in not that's about I'm at but too of converting headwind the concerned a margin terms general. So bit of the that

see there. to rebound So I expect would

DCM, all supportive. equal, are again rates else In clearly lower

rates One rate distinction between absolute of the the change. and the of nuances there is level of the

lower seeing corporates in expecting So lower to rates. therefore waiting and rates sometimes you the of refinance hope even and see

So that can go ways. both

different slightly a it's M&A, dynamic. then And

this there's was as you obviously there. think couple announced volume I year. lower nuances know, of a One,

that So all in a be revenues reported XXXX else will in headwind equal.

environment more been has we be as headwinds, bit course, M&A But we're are environment discussed. seeing of in that, of an having I a And I supportive. would deal in said of bit regulatory think pickup the and flow, expect heavily to a

slow accelerates for What on take there even the revolver to And it more here even side Do lower further, think Great. demand. come utilization, spoke is to room it flip rebound? about you in markets down? C&I, Or up capital the would you that more? if rates open from this for to muted

as in more of a I necessarily good bit revolver earlier that that in I was like it's of drive think that utilization. having a effect terms -- year, market lack debt say, of you access little say mean mean, the I question. of an last I it's Yes, a wouldn't

there think the companies of as size. little main bit I driver smaller the is anxiety get C-suite, in in just increases the a which residual

turn see out So of supported little might really function worse, think is, so to be, softer management out. so be going a even utilization incrementally how I bit lower. on, going landing think. to should and plays If the you teams are there's and utilization a The cautious the would about I XXXX things the be more CapEx more

Next, to Glenn Schorr we'll from Evercore of go ISI. the line

get overall. to your a the I relative market. The private perspective but So to want credit growth, so on banking big lot of it's industry saw only

to starting and lending. think a I see raise now there's a But in of money energy. infrastructure them you're in more and and middle lending market finance, lot direct you're lot been in seeing shift asset-backed share of

is of do versus trend importantly, does much JPMorgan to How participate? it this? a secular? cyclical and how So big is as my adapt how you think most And question you of

Glenn. Thanks, Yes.

think last this key as the is an competitive important one your the I what you dynamic we the and company. of part, So factor which as in say, the that a is question, most offer as of is things part important

time. a that is It's So some meaningful in we've for the it something environment. shift watching been

trade-off initiatives and traditional new the of both head businesses effectively, unitranche lending to but types actually that's sort It made tends speed client versus when of can and to head franchise. the pricing some syndicated in with wants. of the ensure DCM best possible and between go we some structures be we a We and to execution. both our long-time private can providers what strong credit also have enhancements these of our provide exceptionally if compete uncertainty that And

bigger lending results some certain across from course, pushed we're the both talk a regulated a the of activity lot context already that to picture, risk certain and about been commercial the CIB bank priority, of the Basel the that's in So getting actually end with out see in client game, and segments. perimeter. III of the And the people of starting

happening point that ours, intentional be results the of what's of and clients of We just just around sure make with is should particular, likely our in here are the consequences too. the we're So more looking aware They're end, are to little important the clients. these And here be and and that bit. corner a them. right, clear, regulators, people compete in also

Do asset-backed? has? your the it of an as business, following path see you direct Anything too. part It's same lending important specific on

that, haven't heard interesting. Glenn. I It's about much

be we're I haven't So to But look me right it makes much it's not that such now. that fact think driver the a heard big you. into maybe going honest, to for

our go the from Partners. line Peabody Portales to for question, final Charles And we'll of

the that about from NII year let's because role be plays to your this their $X billion that question have NII contribution First $X up, you'll year. of and First forecast. will a Republic Republic billion I'm in assuming $X.X full say, year Another to next 'XX billion

rate you're But note of Republic? X your significant I assume detractor NII then that also adjusted FDIC to a from that assumptions given you upwards. that mortgages you mean, amount pricing I rate of and is that have have forecasting Or cuts, First

First NII higher First So forecast rate you're First would a talking longer, that stay I'm be bigger about hurt Republic talk cuts, sensitivities the if if So your But Republic, much for guessing. about Republic there. contributor? probably from of wouldn't rates

Charlie. Thanks, Yes.

out we guiding our stay this need order period-on-period First understood we Investor improve reported of business in results track Republic First comparability, said we earlier when of the Republic. is to want in at that kind that to So thing of the [indiscernible] and out year Republic we while of kind gave guidance on been Day First we've one to that,

focused we including in First embedded our be on so the is firm-wide, And that having guidance really franchise. Republic now everything

let just you to a react said. Having of said things that me couple that,

micro So envelope to of the of math. of again, validation your into other or the don't way want like some back one get I

have the some loans did on accelerated we we that of pull-to-par purchased this some But of the accretion year. of some

high you're annualization doing think the XXXX the for I a So number. maybe that is bit

you assets actually just all for Republic that my to question a various and And and sensitivities the of little a can EAR the perspective, all from response because of kind math you I bit the then with from includes liabilities the prior to First of EAR the I simplify fully direct think dynamics.

And so I think easier that's it to about kind the an of think way for company. like

sure down the Within Republic XX contribution I well have up? from to or from you're went so saying, understood Just XX. market being that, NII make to as would First you ex what

I it. the we had day did [indiscernible]

don't Republic. So that a yes, statement about guiding think I second, sort it into answer I really but if on that mean I I to get of First can business the probably want for my question it prior violates of

right, If big XX. the First months had in we're picture, we I X picture, going have to XXXX, do big XXXX, of Republic so NII.

So all there. there's else equal, calendarization in

quickly of that that also the pull-to-par impact What's as the of XXXX assets pull-to-par is short-dated of and happens as fair [indiscernible] that part the of little a quite true in sort the result probably we number discount a bit. XXXX at relatively -- meaningful certain juice of that a valued therefore, transaction,

about it. annualization probably think is straight not therefore, to way the So right

Then and like about into questions the then FTP just and and get the funding complicated. it's whatever, the too you just

there. go not rather I'd So

do have further at no questions time. And we this

Okay. everyone. Thanks very much,

for participating all in conference. today's you Thank

enjoy may your time, the You at disconnect this of day. rest and