JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 13 Oct 232023 Q3 Earnings call transcript

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] We will now go live to the presentation. Please stand by.

would Chief turn and Financial and Jamie I to call their time, CEO, Chase's JPMorgan Officer, Dimon. this like the to over Chairman At Jeremy Barnum; Mr. ahead. go please Dimon,

everybody. morning, Good

want Before to on we press call. actual start call, the repeat we just the something said I

say we about to have the the attacks Israel are deeply before recent just JPMorgan discussions get resulting third we our out civilized of in Chase all here and more. place hatred into horrific no quarter So saddened Terrorism bloodshed I who that earnings, all about and want go how are and suffering. to hearts and all on world, our at

very Thanks, sentiment. echo the Jamie. I And of much course,

available in website, the on refer to Now back. the please our earnings turn let's our is third and disclaimer to quarter presentation results. The

X. Starting firm $XXX investment billion XX%. firm-wide billion, expense. of $XXX income EPS of of legal million delivered million $X.XX net These an $XX.X reported $XX.X Corporate on and ROTCE losses of in revenue included and on of of Page results securities The net

X, we quarter, where the Similar Republic to of some have called On Page out more we impact relevant. First have detail. last

$XXX quarter, net contributed billion this million billion $X.X For $X.X of income. of Republic and revenue, expense First of

year-on-year. revenue firm-wide prior and NIR net Markets was ex securities rates was higher million X%, lower Markets or deposit up And Card, investment or Now $XXX partially balance Revenue of or million $XXX offset the than First which year-on-year. NII driven by ex X% down Markets billion revolving the up excluding balances. by focusing $XX.X was lower losses included year. on $X at Republic. $X.X results, XX% billion was or up higher XX% billion

inflation $XXX by Expenses growth wage front of as And in loan a and ongoing net release driven by charge-offs X% $X.X primarily million scenario, Card well driven changes driven billion included in central costs technology as higher in credit or Card and legal staffing growth. and billion, by predominantly by $XX.X office billion the year-on-year, net expense. were up $X.X reserve were offset primarily

Basel and basis up capital the the CETX versus income ended We as prior a XX our net circumstances the line share We XX.X%, quarter, about was ratio In pace AOCI. benefit quarter, sheet the net on modest evolve $X capital of of Page as balance remain points had billion of likely quarter we'll less and the buybacks opportunities offset of partially buyback repurchases to capital trajectory III or emerge. On reassess to X. proposal. distributions by with with this in light continue will hierarchy, endgame of the

see topic And on III we on added it. a pages endgame, that of of couple the Basel the you'll

X. on that So Page starting let's cover now,

well of us, it this to significance thought the discussing as Given industry the spend households proposal was important and broader end as it. businesses as for we time users,

is expected deal And with of while a so positioned there's to by increase banks large, in the why quantify having this proposal are time asking by us it's in well the we over and start important impact the policymakers lot granular interest of well statement stress. given repeated capitalized to that proposed detail, know

increase does not Given analysis that of of sense that a disconcerting, lot make a detailed supporting and context, the capital us. magnitude absence there's this is to

in no billion. thing capital RWA of One risk billion point RWA expect increase $XXX to immediate systemic Starting $XX.X or around billion RWA. or change requirements is a that $XX about requires increasing We've XX% our footprint. in which results already the at said to by with additional XX% firm's by with $XXX out we X.X% billion, capital in GSIB, increase

originally. time failure matters worse. Since that on despite made at been record to has economic the the outset, of RWA. being Fed And and address long $XXX all additional billion to problem acknowledging miscalibrated a of implementation, the themselves was the this flawed now for We've those an GSIB applied growth, are conceptually problems

combined capital could is view simply to increase levels multiplying the the have surcharges. the existing adjusted than that with buffer dollars keep associated the rather the surcharge by proposals Our constant RWA GSIB of

Another the for op capitalized lens and of stress is overlap the RWA capital already risk clear with on buffer. the through losses introduction proposed increases risk operational its

this disclose. on we for does our without billion risk by around Although there new operational about is information to will have capital capitalize that billion the this on embedded the disclosure op the estimated capital from in our of go Once limited $XX point, SCB we RWA, have required any $XX change based Fed portfolio. Fed we the risk up

Now SA-CCR increase from then, of which what's XXXX. out Zooming since stress let's capital will proposed and shows the us happened X.X%. of page surcharge have and this adopted buffer actual the details turn Since impact the last Page and the X, over GSIB this to rules most been recent capital proposal, reminds few years. the to our of

III and current XXXX XX% see point. would to are in the relative a Basel proposals we assuming increase starting GSIB endgame capital that our form, So their finalized requirements in

from incorporate it's of to This SCB. the likely will expect to into proposals We into done absence illustrates Fed the And capital issue requirement. in which overcalibrated yet. the not again and GSIB there remains fix given how headwind CECL indefinite long-standing pro-cyclicality flaws, aside And of these the the CCAR, course, the it increase continues to overall are, of a still those a future. dynamics, the present

important to think also have We actually here. point a did choice agencies the out that it's

unnecessary does the that Implementing be capital credit of this creating a requirements. is compliance consistently also not mandate have in the the in increase compounding modeling true with effects SCB, capital it technically would increase GSIB XX% Basel-compliant, Basel risk may Basel endgame Europeans Basel proposal retaining III requirements. by While the have, compliance without addressing and and achieved how

forcefully As deal advocate you engage great and beyond would continue the period comment a to technical in detail. expect, during we of and will

For of the we capital of level since equally about the framework the this to over and both critical flaws design wanted call, construct framework's the purposes the in to time. the the increase itself durability coherent important of points make is broader

discourage for scale significant The features exacerbates goes If pricing there and diversification. be and proposal through existing on beneficial to credit impacts likely it current as consumers. availability written, of businesses and will

that In the deploying market changes building block that and the persistent are want operation critical ongoing addition, market-making well-regulated supporting of economy. clients are that which to U.S. cost We committed breadth, the depth regulatory capital the dramatic in basis and suggest the makers to to believe to a regulators capital the banks vital resilience for of current markets, on of U.S. American markets. the the capital principal a increase is

So warranted proposing of magnitude. caution is when changes this

now businesses, nominal to CCB growth customer income With on continue year-on-year. Consumer to Cash levels lower has relatively with trends that, with with go X. we our to spend pre-pandemic for normalize buffers starting Page spend faster. reverted pre-pandemic to groups stable and flat normalizing

income excluding $X.X Turning on First now to was $XX financial XX% billion which of the revenue year-on-year. Republic. of CCB reported up billion, results net

X% NII continue higher were data Wealth in Management, deposit #X based driven was quarter-on-quarter. retail share down up higher We by revenue & and Banking End-of-period and rates. up ranked on on capture year-on-year year-on-year XX% XX% in In deposits Consumer net leadership our we driven markets. position performance inflows were investment continue flows from Banking Client assets solidify strong market our key customers. yield-seeking by to as to FDIC

up smaller were Originations quarter-on-quarter, slightly In given remained year-on-year, of they $XX.X Home billion year-on-year. a Lending, revenue market. was down XX% down X% but

up share. up year-on-year higher was Moving Auto. to driven revolving were normalization partially gained And X% $XX.X competitors and lower for NII to continued in up lease we and Card back were outstandings due Card strong auto & Auto billion, Services year-on-year originations acquisition by income. XX% offset higher as both. Revenue pull Services we account by year-on-year XX% balances, on market saw Auto,

Expenses primarily technology. of front by driven X% office were in largely billion investments and $X.X staffing, up in continued year-on-year,

million net Services, offset continued a predominantly Credit The of were by of In build release credit year-on-year performance $X.X $XXX in a by Card to due million were terms in quarter. net Lending. billion million which reflected million normalization $XX this up build charge-offs driven of Home primarily $XXX $XXX reserve costs Card.

of billion was debt $X.X X% on Next, equity. were reported and XX%. on share down X. CIB year-on-year, were Page of and Investment fees down for for wallet of X% were a we IB year-to-date X.X%. ranked CIB income billion revenue fees with X% $X.X year-on-year. #X of net X% the down Underwriting up revenue $XX.X Banking fees Advisory, In down billion.

also remains headwind. a into picked was September, a healthy Payments the half, up year-on-year. terms of level of but the down capital quarter. Advisory compared significantly, fourth announced continue the has we encouraged which M&A billion, we're the markets and be to to X% $X.X by going will year-to-date pipeline have first outlook, up revenue activity in In

equity by up driven it higher deposit by rates, investments, offset partially lower Excluding XX% was balances.

Securities income as a by Moving as rates, to strong to Markets Securitized Markets against increase activity XX%, products year challenged in higher by X% third improved reflecting by Markets. Emerging in prior Currencies year. deposit lower off year-on-year lower well an $X.X predominantly quarter partially billion, performance lower very was by a trade $X.X down driven volatility. as revenues Equity down up up was Services offset strong offset and This was X% revenue last activity was billion X% last coming Total of in compared a very year. revenue quarter across Products Fixed driven by credit. was was quarter financing strong year-on-year & balances.

billion million. inflation. net were a expense reflecting predominantly of legal $X.X wage $XXX million million, Credit reserve driven were lending of release up activity by impact $XXX of benefit driven higher a year-on-year costs Expenses and charge-offs the $XX of net of net net by XX% and

with billion. X. reflecting Investment Commercial Markets reported net year-on-year, up Bank of year-on-year Payments Revenue was Banking up million XX% $X.X and the increased driven gross up higher X% revenue to of billion, Moving M&A billion income of volume. rates. XX% on was year-on-year And $X.X Commercial $X Page $XXX by revenue of Banking

higher down primarily and Expenses impact higher-yielding for acquisition. headcount, $X.X billion alternatives. were deposits of investments by new in the were driven including XX% including client as quarter-on-quarter technology and nonoperating an lower of well X% driven opt expense, as deposits clients volume-related increase largely year-on-year as X% by Average office up front year-on-year,

And flat, continued demand stabilization were lower originations loans utilization. in X% estate as of up and revolver loan year real in X%, banking up activity. C&I new Loans payoff reflecting prior quarter-on-quarter. CRE funding loans were were well as reflecting

were a and of net costs million, credit charge-offs of net million. $XX $XX $XX build million Finally, including reserve

of lines AWM our on X. Page complete to Then business,

$X.X of NII Asset was billion billion on deposits. year-on-year with Revenue income fees $X.X pretax inflows were and offset & of average Wealth of Management margin reported net performance from management fees by levels higher strong and net relatively a lower higher flat market XX%. lower as

were up teams Expenses Global and of JPMorgan our X% year-on-year Shares Asset $X.X and closing continued driven adviser China billion of the impact acquisitions. banking growth by Management the private in

the and of $X.X XX% trillion led inflows asset higher For were net continued XX% positive all by levels. assets were trillion we liquidity, equities. $XX client driven in saw net across was quarter, by year-on-year up inflows billion, and net AUM inflows $XX of year-on-year, And of classes, market $X.X up long-term billion.

while were by client Finally, deposits migration flat X% quarter-on-quarter partially to offset by were inflows. investments, down driven loans

billion, the were Expenses of last $XXX $X.X to was net included due upfront. compared the Turning on securities income billion of million loss And $X Revenue million. XX. up $XXX losses investment year-on-year Corporate $X.X mentioned million net NII rates. up NIR $X.X billion, of to net a was Page to reported higher impact $XXX year. year-on-year. up million of Corporate and $XXX was I billion

to year, throughout when NII this reprice We XXXX be driven To have $XX.X normalize, it NII be Markets we sustainable. to by NII don't and level approximately than we previously the ex we've Page do know will slower saying consider outlook been with while respectively, the billion and finish, assumed. not with what Consistent XX. the we of on billion, now increase $XX expect

denominator Our basis, credit, assessment. outlook this Card billion. now for to be approximately recent X.X%, $XX mostly as adjusted pending Also, excludes On by a XXXX now remember net adjusted FDIC And legal excludes to reminder, XXXX expense. the this approximately due on outlook growth. an expect we rate expense which special balance the charge-off is driven is effects

always, the now uncertainty. operating of past. geopolitical So of situation, those, to our significant we're as reprice as being pointing need with to another focused Basel But are up, proposal, recent a And been the year, of various sources wrap we've prepare rate the pleased out there quarter scenarios they in environment, range the on the when results. of strong continue the economic all including are and deposit endgame been Throughout for and impact and us as most. they have of customers III prominent for clients we outlook,

And let's the open with Q&A. that, for line

John Instructions] [Operator Autonomous McDonald first with Our comes question from Research.

give pressure? Jeremy, deposit I seeing far And you see was reprice longer you a expected you're for migration. deposit so do impacting more been higher if on little potentially us than far how What's could and wondering on front? so better color reprice on that what rates

Sure. Thanks, John.

we've quarters. seen themes I in prior think the are same the much pretty as

current been we've recognizing the to So to point trying be of as on some are talked sustainable, that that maybe little about or to about pockets this some we think in cautious a do call, And press yet some a tiering think we little we levels happened in and don't hasn't bit bit we'll at year. the course, future. that reprice the degree, whatever have

So factor. one that's

very is CD to the well. getting continue we're and capturing from get the strategy money in field, We're feedback working good In the motion. meantime, --

CD would the seeing of and And deposit have rate result paid so a the we're slow migration, hoped. associated in working internal of sort of we as as sort that's but migration increase

And kind out plan, according of say. I so everything playing is to would

means deposit we're market I both continue competitive be the from price as say, think from of migration just that pricing, terms to on the a internal higher other In at we to environment. And for possibly as effects. pressure always will end, upward and function there longer, of it products going

the as seems portfolio, outlook of it of like securities couple a positioning quarters. some terms in cash just the balance are And you given How securities sheet the you've done last for in rates? in follow-up, your repositioning

Yes.

large sure we're predicting our believe been position Jamie rates, we time, something and higher nor a good think not say continue I'm to and some And significantly I have lower so of it. present position for results. I would particularly that's here, challenge rates significant higher that's prepared to we ourselves to being that, neither say company. to course, produced while rates try the for will in And

for duration sheet, keep duration of -- So shorten mind slightly probably at rates. the But bit the modeling do extend margin, that, higher little we're or do when still biased rates the on the in rather, balance the higher a the duration deposit side.

a So well. factor that can as be

Research. next Chubak question Wolfe Our comes Steven with from

Jeremy, capital outlook. I just about was hoping to markets inquire

thinking the September. You are IPOs, just an rates, over to cited the medium poor thinking And levels and about are timing improved higher activity geopolitical tensions persistently near of activity? how term? performance in outlook in how just you the recent you about But inflection given of

saw in very that question. the the to we during you normal consider even current sort year. might levels last you good of levels Investment the to Yes, Banking I mean, the obviously, what relative quite but know, is which relative remain XXXX, elevated depressed, certainly as pandemic,

team bit. eventually some out, last would complicated think time pointed of a we'll more to there levels and hopefully in optimistic economic the little And is And our that, they things while current it do above recognizing is have are improved say by little recover those those environment meantime. that's bit We quarter. years to to mixed and bit a many headwinds, levels, I the think a fair, be than the as happens, you recover and growth little I were banking

the positive on of outlook grind of headwinds, levels to side. some obviously, with lower feels but some uncertainty a headwinds and and given little me regulatory structural significant slow announced it momentum, some bit a like M&A in So that

proportion lot And just be do written, of proposal of the inflation of mitigated time? on can what for as If on commentary a slides, for color some you thank over through regulatory so my to the the were follow-up you go helpful you provided. Certainly, believe that. the

inclusion And impact of potentially you SCB hoping think quantum could how could and CECL as the some context I you the also provide was to CCAR.

are Those questions, Steve. all Yes. good

including are of philosophical which that are of mistakes nature, proposal. I probably either front. on possible as what our sort technical the you in too call currently might or advocating try the level for think the Basel prepared from highlighted to in of with some quantification start perspective, the necessary think focused that we're changes, some aggressively very of things them actually first to provide might I nature early my But it's we remarks. I III endgame on things If on as some proposal, in of be

And optimizing just is can I that premature change proposal, non-optimizable. generic might the that as stuff bit like risk so of RWA that part operational spectrum. a away would sort at is talking feels point across that it's in sense, out significant a And given therefore, entire lot of you as about of the tax point. some how this a -- think

So level important finalized we possible it's expectations some of about that's feel once that these is the addressed. hopefully rule and the optimization manage to items technical of are

Also, optimization. just costless I use revenue don't -- businesses. on to where affect There's exit definition what and the you don't it technical term fixes your depends require it's I that optimization, of sometimes

it I type in will think past. has optimization been that be of to than the harder find

that which that's but But because to would be out, need exit is alternative, destructive, value as to than be be shareholder will it do we better simply activity costless. things. pointed won't we And the may it

make longer sense. tax of investment renewable which of may risk a of quadrupling result the energy is A the that business, no good as example weight, credit the

will those very but Now are tricky assets. that long-duration one because that's changed be is we hope

want sheet. whether balance that stuff finalized, and is rule some the to now raises So questions put it on the we between about

of then, long what bit to on transparency to think to that we it a We probabilistically so it's on sorry, quarter that capital answer. that CECL know have and because these for the and lack will, given going relative the days, little quantifying hard CCAR, to exact Fed's modeling of everything CECL forth, got is predict I else push the peak be. putting bit just a which terms like wait of and So of is CCAR tend yes, so impact a higher. in the we've But one into and exact

next Our with of America. question from comes Ebrahim Poonawala Bank

Jeremy, Just credit. question, first on

mentioned to the release Could I of change reserve central talk is was some the remind changed? to us, in just central the What what tied think scenario today? scenario. you you the us

And then consumer are the where you fundamentally softness, credit, in terms or side? on seeing of the commercial on either like

Yes.

the on I gets read very X out case So think, fourth sort mild our but competitors think the team. to you had modest growth this put to year. our negative I central X% few think first quarter And with, early now by a all I scenario, of quarters in excellent have a around that in should revised No, quarter our recession out quarter of GDP of seriousness, quarters their U.S. research the then this research central XXXX. that economists include growth, for outlook X.X% got and and of into

downside, still we're outlook. that is reserved still through acknowledging weighted to the our So basis average in just central rate than flowing that case a higher on while unemployment we're to a significantly skewed process the

sometimes you, that So which this given X.X% is we've number, quarter.

just following of that. really the We're not more process. complicated than much kind it's So

coming certainly is roughly, that's I expected. your to nowhere think story And trickle exactly we we in office that think I the the or not course, charge-offs then, nowhere, less are a Meaning the answer see credit? am was, And play more softness other And or I as through in where expected. to space. of question seeing out actually seeing continue normalization consumer of

already number or realization see the the allowance that But there. are Commercial numbers the You of that in just small built the and of more Bank. we've charge-off the very less

don't the going you That's doesn't of time, details any makes expect speaking last was the -- to back Jamie terms helpful. said Maybe sense same philosophical just that Basel But in on changes. you on make at the the we I laid And out everything think pushback. month, side, endgame.

play meeting Is fact to deaf thing some we the perspective? in on to it resigned falling case see gets the the we level of all from road going that Are sort this the middle outcome worst it there out? Or towards ears of finalized? more as are is a of shareholder

Yes.

to Washington. of speak advocate. it team in sentiment very Jamie guess for let But a our smart got is very know. We're to job X,XXX-page that studying himself I'll the going a So We've people rule on you point. as big proposal, It's what not closely. is

in the operational that Interestingly, $X preamble, in of analysis forgot impact we their that billion noted recently they -- did like lending, they sort they $X on of of RWA. of the the about risk some about forgot billion about Fed,

They So is the -- highlights on RWA possibility that impact omitted of simply it there seem to or just fees. a risk forgotten. operational have the

long, going So they'll and complicated, disagree resolved are be, on it's those. we're listen. while point And of of and technical technically. in a it's we some are that do all there, We the technical. think advocate it's technical lot stuff, probably sense, these forcefully issues some anyway, to should is hopefully, this And with there mistakes

to $X say correction a the I meant getting room. just trillion... from I'm Sorry,

I $X No, the got yes. got that. trillion, Yes. I

[ actually. ] That was talking what about we were

something put out on BPI [ ] it.

yes. did, BPI

from next Stanley. Morgan Ryan question with comes Our Kenny

I to NII on dig want in side. the

ex So you by billion year. XXXX guidance Markets the raised $X NII for this

over-earning, comments to the press so What JPMorgan's NII So I earlier does And just next we I on? your to know year normalize like? release get there. look or suggests normalized triangulate do in want

Yes, of things. a couple

the me timing first. let do question So

of marketplace so the and function environment predicting is forth. So dynamics to rate and be are the and we're competitive and on that When clear being so very we not going when. a

bank don't everyone on So remind we're think which just we the to rate, just are sustainable. really run just current trying to fundamentally not

going Day, we some like, to little out range was quantify before we that push there aware about of a put and type how what mid-XXs be overlaps First You'll of kind we look forth. year, although we so and number that acquisition Day talked last tried number might Investor there. of sort at normalized that Republic this were -- thought and the on Investor to bit, up And a so earlier

to of of having now in settled that out kind bit, anyway, caveats current all for does billion that is look just we benefit like, the when. it's guess number But that and little us about what So point we time everything probably with don't rate. you of quite a trying obvious if the sort a $XX that it's think closer to with a this we're and know bit the run lower than push

Inside think the will i.e., people it some sooner, company, happen me.

think people Marianne and and happen Some later, i.e., it will Jenn Jeremy.

don't was I I in aware know know. don't But camp, everyone's opinion here. wasn't that I over I actually.

And we but this has how where growth given and are year, year. different too then categories? talk next loan higher early seeing significantly side, coming? And cycle be for growth, we slowed should loan demand loan growth the to directionally, in growth across the requirements know industry the are about think capital What about it you on might loan I the

Yes, sure.

been pretty story the with what growth, loan on we've So all year. consistent is saying

were both of normalization revolving spending loan we growth robust very in from coming So and and that's the growth balances. Card, seeing

has that, muted probably look bit we're little we about be this it it normalization than As period. but optimistic during forward, more still a been will

competitive more Auto, as pretty was little as bit raise to loan robust rates. recently, slow the growth slightly pricing seen our In side of on also a sort a industry we've both function

the some that's and lost better, And that's previously, share we is back so chain so situation supply And generally, supported. been come now.

should As we forward more it be little a muted. look there, bit

And environment. growth the I by going loan think just be story to generally driven in economic Wholesale, is the

landing, So slightly any But have what soft lower would mild growth. be to muted. on believe lending, depending it or you I relatively slightly loan no in we higher recession, about case, expect

Basel this not fairly course, light we in mentioned market be what change also, as across may think and and true both actively, managing which the of board, change we remains constrained by will Home originations, of retain. is but will And But Lending conditions. things III, I it rates

with comes Our next question Cassidy Gerard from RBC.

put a Jeremy, Community the strong out up ROE I in dive ex what First you Consumer about your you ROTCE your you we into us really know have credit, When that. of XX% at over-earning jumps talked for get & and quarter. segments, number the XX% Republic Jamie is have guys different on Banking. really

were these you away But supposed fintechs market over-earning what's What's that nonbank high business guys everybody's put drivers and competitors pick this all that other out, these such share, profitability in behind an great all to the of all driving when numbers view even credit at of take you here. have level? ROE, a up at

Gerard, Yes, I'd couple say a of things there.

we've that it's overearning for the NII, first, of coming when disproportionate right? reasons talked not a deposit is just credit, So it's margin, out about that amount also So about. we talk on of consumer franchise all the

we're proposition value and like benefits the back a which that about they're customers the effectively X-decade comes the for now, the would and CDs. we we're some word And drives compete services broader to of future that includes answer and are there's right to although and happy decade, all the to entire out, the customer we're But and not app the investing now, of here really that around over-earning online is of why sometimes, services because able doing don't of engagement point and also products that question branches And history a holistic complacent. recognizing this and seeing long enterprise, I your suite loyalty.

are circumstances core above there, are the that the fintechs current the a there, still franchise continue competition earnings preserve extremely investing and that that is to true but means the to rate of need normal, we is and value. the know robust. we credit The also still particular And little environment bit it's

which earlier good. into your answer And the internal then about rates ties on deposit JPMorgan comments, inside as about and a debate on margin side. Very the you migration the and your Jamie, consumer funding and higher follow-up, of the going

'XX, noninterest-bearing around above are that pre-pandemic. or had which deposits, XX% XXXX you expectation repricing net to is back have or slightly XX% think, more of JPMorgan total noninterest-bearing cautious see Your is guys going to interest-bearing? I income on you're that just this the in Is Or deposits interest number? it little of more your folks a that of the going deposits inside interest-bearing of the deposits, some

Gerard. good a question, it's Yes,

-- bit I good reasons. not your noninterest-bearing that I'm picture think for of the to than get it's through little look split question. sure a at I but I'm is that. reported a sure question, And best It's a interest-bearing, couple one the not this bigger

So part first, migration noninterest-bearing so consumer, slightly in product, right a that now. across how within both that's paying of even consumer, like checking And paid, you probably play of there relatively wholesale where out. businesses, their and small operating between got some of wholesale a world the dynamics low some and in in the that not retail, is in But consumers of amount rate ECR savings across see and manage course, we've different then, got people and you've balances. savings, terms are different dynamics dynamics

to interest-bearing from a a bit of moments driven to the response that that's see ECR savings checking or and by system-wide and wholesale. terms and at to overall product-level future. migration happen And from may rate So I deposits as may tend competitive this of answer little the would holistic to zoom environment, the our level reprice potential out in internal not environment, then in CDs, the

comes question UBS. with from next Erika Najarian Our

reasking maybe you. different question sort first of the my question for a way. Jeremy, Again, is

this quarter. rate new would imply income net for exit $XX.X guide of an billion in year for fourth run the Your interest

will about As hand, we dynamics higher continue reprice. think the for on one rate your longer, assets fixed in to

How a rate about billion of asked think about that we continue relative been exit as creep and to do fourth quarter? that you've other, we lot those higher. takes the to the about the that dynamics puts could deposit in On $XX.X think

Yes.

I the Erika, a saying quarter think kind Markets. we're your number So exit believe simple And rate, to that... billion is -- those question answer that ex equates to I run of fourth $XX

billion. $XX.X

I what meant not to that's Yes, say.

She said $XX billion...

that. didn't I hear

closer to way $XX a it Anyway, it rate and normal model more exit an run [ we on think something call basis, Anyway, billion Okay. billion. is $XX saying bit ]. we're rate that that so

one that's So block. building

I of of CDs rate the is internal less betas thing and bit our a migration the the binary deposits that, and think little that Underneath and as volume, a percentage little increases, interesting, smoother. it's between one and which balance that's bit sort actually,

we type look balances, reprice, smoother, bit X% we overall. you CD out and product-level would little when stuff things world, lower-X So I get of model of get a this as that migration, say, at bound with mix

in to manage will but a but it that, also remembering for point And most that of is be watch just it's worth it's picture things everything interesting now. one we us the big So not right of it, the the last that's company do we obviously client can very important franchise. to And as what we've this we often cycle, the those of the means sort any said, on to relationships, focus in any and we're bank cycle, and focused for lose we're didn't primary lose long-term planning us.

where don't wholesale, [ And know quantitative which exactly $X.X into just there. has reducing still the sucking deposits. tightening the say number, That's -- ] effect, the also, a directly, remember Fed large I the and is consumer trillion. money Fed also program as would be in RRP will we That

I And question complex, endgame that my on very on at backward-looking. Basel And unnecessary overly it you with agree point zooming complex. out It's clearly this III is is second maybe and impacts. completely the

complex in I and you dislocating American process. in and hear capital public could while here of in that I CETX pricing points that advocacy I guess Main clear the you RWAs Street basis terms your for quarter is generated I pipes fact what this my in guess is of XX understand markets. And harm down. have this the is question we're loud is, how are not terms the that of

endgame lingered profile at this your XX%. cycle, really for return the natural JPMorgan, of it feels and your Jamie, for -- of the your you that know XX% the little I harm you change own day, does earnings on were natural the September. like But power for a at returns? Barclays in Basel III But managers through bit end portfolio JPMorgan when

Yes.

Okay. good That's question, a Erika.

I in of pieces a think there's there. couple

important Basel most piece the take light of which the proposal? the through cycle or we me target. is III not let XX% that endgame keeping So in first, Are the

it's you capital, that, at to that we're what So But disclosed not not we've when answer today. going increase you change XX% number in have short about look by a start acknowledging is -- to returns. bit returns, that things, you right? be a In simple is different have terms, do earnings headwind talk about X to little and here. to but major a numerator-denominator power they're We pedantic and

Okay.

probably return endgame Basel So the the of I say down increased impact capital, you a significantly lower reasons. terms bound that's of number. numerator dilute in by the couple if that, the the just for numerator of that's would say doesn't change, lower III the a

for to in in places will we different in the be rule once is will seek changes. hoping Two we is where And and we wholesale. consumer are is, that can. final, One reprice the

will it product can it be be some hopefully it. level, some relationship But that of level. of of will Some mitigate

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see. we'll So

necessarily returns, necessarily may But yes, we XX%. returns and I about assume if And but the shareholder-destructive finally, then we know That's exit things. at you preserve to things may to higher mean. that, certain much a I do going doing are that to things going wouldn't producing be that's what exiting not lot stop

So that's that.

and on to organic part impacts our capital ability about other of implicitly separate the from very And to then question the generation. economy I your meet think And long-term returns on it's talking impacts the was requirements. important just

to And be says, and Jamie able were conservatively, to lot as course, be going fine. Of and is of build to managing we're a capital always building necessary we'll order achieve we capital in JPMorgan capital the early long-term on bearing the real which is, the or the return But question always what really is economy. the what have impacts that of on on strive time to particular doesn't target any do. compliance, we or

Schorr Our with Evercore ISI. next question comes from Glenn

market, So of crude going I you most dangerous agree in that everything about on big the and release And the on in the mentioned. much the on comments sadly decades. global potential the appreciate time the things on what's trade, very world markets, impact in picture

are what you you more maybe hanging does in, yourself believe The conservatively? type prepare if do what shoots How on? that obviously, is, are times? green question that's How then shoots are for you green have do I tougher And a have of surprise still you it importantly, it? yourself mindset you what -- that going you markets manage about while doing about wrote, you banking

Jeremy. you Yes. Go ahead, Do start? want to

Okay.

is than very mean, on mean, markets markets green shoots, and I rate obviously, note But think markets little whippy equity both we a I just been that do cautious. there So recently. are bumpy, more optimistic are have you'll our momentum. bit comments were. have we I been

want don't optimism to too we carried So with here. get away

coming disinflation looks are immaculate The a there's We currently, the expectation a on are course, trade actually low picture, that to And off sort improvement. base, economic solid. hope the so of we of very happening. normalization an overall and least and path is at and

a optimistic are quite caution. reasons bit all near of in those bit a but term, So it's be tempered with the to little

an this been but system. fiscal markets can add caution. look forever. like still can't at -- and would sales and the and profits and monetary stimulus stay can't it There I you in extraordinary it amount and sentiment drive And of of course, has that, all

never clearing kind can this you've fiscal -- at have kind and of had Between the the rate, of QX, factor. out before continue stimulus how which much you

just you have I very be So -- think cautious. to I

usually views And of with. you problems. issue we course, presents the recession, or stress part geopolitics company And down rate extraordinary going We the the have as an including usually, it, recession in geopolitical do problems mild interest prepare deal or is for markets world think, or week. just that? as do tests a to How geopolitics, a recession deep itself a lot. a XXX I we do But a multiple of of

because going reason is And do a do say well they're not continue to to well. markets to ever

facing believe XXXX, that predict we are so people uncertainties you the I just the XXXX, inflection those remember If And XXXX, don't is don't but there. year out XXXX. year me, -- many caution XXXX, my points.

You just be got with to very your cautious pacing.

said, other the of about the those better serve products I the all regardless the day things. in out. we so thing and goal. And try the clients green we services, securely, And company that and of day Better to shoots, run and ultimate like that's that, safely

build we there how a but to surprise know do issue be don't That's where That's serving good to does figure always slightly bad keep too. do. a We you separate a on times. from, good they're can they're from and for be different We deal point, going coming We're know clients, times. there your what to not but job are we'll going out that coming of could it clients, with at a can returns. business that, what kind this to bad

Securities. Mayo comes Wells question with from next Mike Fargo Our

is you more the NII benefited motion. function Do I NII just understand branch digital First how and If have Republic, CD to curious million banking asset of the XX money refresh can strategy, banking now? customers strategy digital deposit I'm much from sensitivity, increase? customers. customers the that? And benefit in And the you

the the for I one one and more And for second guess, first's general then question, Jeremy, a Jamie.

benefit there having have next spend. you thoughts your You market tech to banking as kind really relates to And the mark does tech tech to record outlook it What's the spender spending, If relates in spend? of AI, wasted it record your can be year? maybe the industry? of it to help biggest for as

Yes.

my higher which Mike. accounts, digitally sort point sort extent in actually prior we're of And it of And growth the ago. that do this in I engaged. some growth Let this to a couple time increase of to banking, engaged are that digital of weeks overall consumers digitally is consumers consumer continuing back the spent our to to about... it's than percentage meaning interesting goes on me note the

percent right? the is lower that, much who But are digital-only than

the also the cycle, story, links through actually of point a point larger engaged terms obviously, sure, for For much of fully what in requires multichannel, to the is Which customer broader in all holistic, the of branches, NII it question how your sure. of strategy, current it which sorts. to but -- services goes this in investment lot about digital that helping

a of investment, So not stop obviously. like, payoff as environment in current but we that can little of bit see many ways, the you that's a therefore, investing,

the So of guess answer. that's part I

business, the your like And it's biggest question the world other right? is and spender. is I very is I competitive the just I and and changing. everything we're it's think benefits of technology-centric mandatory, tech big of mean, a guess, being sort

have front and foot. to to getting expectations, different we nimble, disrupted. be have generations be risk otherwise, our Younger have we And severely on and we

if know to anything. So wants add I don't Jamie

I'm obviously coming we look is the Chime, different Wells, it's Marcus, which you back, It's businesses when it's ways. at it, who is it's with up guys. It's of lot people these happy a competition, for coming It's Just Apple. in Dave. --

successful. in It's Some Stripe quite been have payments.

so we very and want good very to be competitive. And

going which resiliency, Some are qua regulatory and company. do and we a like sine very non, of that cybersecurity, tech spending is requirements things are at which is to the that, center be almost data to good which simply protect things very,

the talk the is including consensus town, is among will not that outside relates people specifically, banking the the industry As which to JPMorgan. battle, win AI of banks guess it that I

moonshot? You control a end. a are doing AI with you now? the to simply Or What won't front make this difference is

with a when you that published ever amount to extraordinary the in large public everything like It's that's Banks do in of something agree everything that. don't model I or proprietary looking data, addition been data. language at or an Well, statement. have Internet like that's

at But tool put our just is use. AI a is an We it woman extraordinarily who running table. to good

cetera. AI. data of et types multiple are it's So analytics, there And AI,

So we fraud, use marketing, for AI prospecting. risk,

the errors? have that. something a better And we a team serve the client's like data at or reduce that and calling clients copilots, why how do To salesperson to saying, can better? use better they even better getting is To to job management know have

come so And Does -- for truth technology be at we'll it. to simply and create it. of disruptors good to we always the Yes, but opportunity have do of in? That's quite course. it

the year. on And made then investment a over mention a that? spend spend at about you had tech Where lastly, stand or think next conference I you do

year. next did No, expense ask you because a little bit outlook the Yes. about for

the said budget was et think still I cetera. So through conference, consensus going cetera, billion, et at I process, think we're the we but $XX

that's true. still So

but to at think in little margin, pressure... I the we're bit upward ballpark, would say, going be kind still there's I the of a of

no? That First or Republic, too,

opportunities bit Yes, and is First make. that now thing a look of usual will want this be Republic. pressure we of all as And at on the that to that little investments upward all including I our there see sort think do and we we the

we're in no the that So little invest dramatic, bit going prudently. pressure that a of upward sense, to on surprise Nothing but margin. probably

Our next Global. Jim Mitchell with question Seaport comes from

Is among do book. business, regarding only Jeremy, trading market regulators the the any double-counting clearly this there's there's in there earlier you you think the alluded receptivity risk in any double-counting, receptivity? Markets in I think operational not to but but of risk,

a involved. my become exactly it's opposed get politicized as that's very Can just kind and in your know. generally. heard from in We so of really going people Jeremy, We the know. to required put one-sided comments, like what's view, we They conversation technical the I extensive Fed, a In everyone's going on how process right. inside to think, comments you say don't many it It's do real know the to I answer really put don't don't quickly? analysis, really

see. we'll So

is is Is more weren't business on players Or specifically. it if gain a opportunity and equal, that's, in as Markets negative type a event? will pulling fewer be to about else liquidity that there talked change, the of -- out liquidity for smaller then JPMorgan a providers And a potential business that of impact JPM that exit? scaled all comment maybe in less market business? share it And the Okay. of you certain

-- that capital. if so it's at a it, at think huge, can XX% product. by I in I you if Markets look do you think, increase And alone, you look

all others. it's But than for products. it products, across some spans For generally, it worth

look markets many all is in for there's you market governments, function. make Bank, market different size. buy the thing BlackRock, so their market IMF, for and can hospitals, And than but if critical important those And various things -- only clients is market-making And cities, funds. a makers have a Blackstone and function make World large makers really schools, who hedge at world, who the states, sell

shock market We've And know that market talk was what in this in safe. like What to making real one, you I do is something We global intent be I through. that. really another trying to don't think, the with kind quite people money accomplish? or of this. the making never thought about market lost the needs But that are

thing a consolidation. which force out. could market I I risky, may think some it little why making, positions, But more force people the do other it's about It actually is agree, also force will it but lower

with be so need in SLR, so there an clients, much, volatile markets you up may more they way unintended capital, be constraints, obviously will in And do. market against since And what cetera, on because the it making. the with limitations can LCR, consolidation all et you constantly

refer smaller-scale of scale. for But that's back to exit, what is point about Yes. gain important sure, doing lead business and very to And I the a construct I I optimistic and cost beneficial you players want, can higher that us. Jamie's of particularly think to will the comments that argument, if the share disincentives is would because, a consider last you opportunity diversification

a example, perspective. quite for especially bigger, GSIB Getting Markets, from, in expensive it's

of hemmed that very obviously... effect cumulative the a everything of over out And last in does in one when so all fundamentally seem only look And the way XX at that's reasons highlighting you which the is Markets up system. sometimes, the well, why it we're sides, kind of you on wind happened like different years, is sort of

market opportunity do a is European difference capital. credit great mean, swaps for in business. and of a repo Great with can FX that Like less XX% makers. and and stuff and That I kind they opportunity. big

question Matt Bank. with Deutsche from O'Connor comes Our last

least outlook an interest fee on response the pressured might talked at areas net income, medium increased you about how control to revenue do in for earlier looking You is obviously some about investment spend just at question. in But The help. term? cost think overall

for or But is at couple least a or revenue revenue the declining flattish potentially few backdrop for years.

know I invest really years? always you are paid So control want say how over But the few time. you thinking off next the cycle, you to cost about through and it's in

had rates sense years, that very the I we significant a framework. this of don't framework, dramatically been rebounds, answer sense, see In -- over you becomes sort couple wish right? where but your good that and these of drop very fit the mean, world an I and Yes. the fundamental and some I in better markets. recover of with fluctuations In and and we've last through capital kind in suddenly quite into like then credit agree abnormally just

the out We term revenue in returns XXXX, our lot your a into largely the there to the are which in term, parts saw that XXXX be base, sensitive of that reasons revenue the environment can And where going short course, expense what adjust structural. those some can for more them and while, things of are as a short directly change of of control. function of we are other things that some through sized and other adjust are. make of the goal to the to environment, appropriately are cycle naturally sustainable we volumes. And those believe But forcefully is more sure

always cost. we're on very So focused

go environment, cosmetically the in cost didn't rest generate lower is discipline can a as cycle, lower became, long-term plays. but when shouldn't to expect be we the to to budget through argued, where internally as trying aggressive that. revenue cost we see ever they're high. you unsustainably And really assured response of That as You we've revenue as us balloon the

in contribution probably about think enough. the puts And Fair takes if higher I on you than squeeze opportunities in there's is think Republic. How still to of do coming in at expected. terms Yes. also multiples deepen some and to I First come, runoff but could then just -- the relationships there? there Obviously, loans of

Yes.

we loans, it printed you're about this in So quarter. net the is income, that runoff about the Republic-related First income contribution notable the right and net and the

that, to income number is First we first net say don't the sustainable that a the rate. is this of future from indicator thing run Republic-related think So that quarter

First just deposit about, particular, degree. deposits above-normal dynamics also or Some of margins, franchise on to same apply we talked the Republic that in the to sort over-earning of some

So expect to would that we normalize.

a pull as some accelerated took as have acquisition. that think And do fair the we value discount on of on significantly, some the alluded probably more you I of we to par to, at commitments part

short-term that revenue few a that out next the in over that's so And tailwind the come will quarters. of

think, as things will modeled remains I of terms that integration going to well, how relationships, press and going I the we it's that. are we're as focus. and And a yes, And had on happen sort acquisition, the said, a we in think, and we that more continue I of continue yes, stabilizing. the deepening happy better bit arguably I little than part overall call, as And see think the of of

you. are Thank no further questions. There

Folks, very thank you much.

conference. in for participating Thank today's you

time. at disconnect may You this