Camden Property Trust (CPT) 2 Feb 242023 Q4 Earnings call transcript

Good morning, and welcome to Camden Property Trust Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Kim Callahan, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

Joining me today are Rick Campo, Camden's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Keith Oden, Executive Vice Chairman and President; and Alex Jessett, Chief Financial Officer.

Today's event is being webcast through the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and a replay will be available this afternoon.

e-mail slide slides conjunction on will later or a remarks, our our have today those and also by will presentation with in prepared website We request. upon be available please And is this [Operator Instructions] note, being event recorded.

remarks, no begin cause statements performance to forward-looking our advise information with you these supplement risks would we results Further are future forward-looking call could the these can our of on uncertainties involve current obligation we about because Before risks beliefs. I them. statements be assumes not These current of that review SEC statements be will statements events. like encourage to found differ we update management's in to materially and on today's and and represent prepared our expectations. filings actual making based everyone or and made expectations and subsequent that Any the guarantees opinions, to from company

XXXX available [Operator financial We measures, Camden's to be at includes time like non-GAAP complete to As of our everyone's Investors on within complete this reconciliations call discussed camdenliving.com, and and release respect website in earnings fourth which hour. a our section would the it reminder, quarter X call. is will Instructions]

I'll time, the this turn Ric to At call Campo. over

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Camden at recognize associates who XX from that our is ACE nominate of from X,XXX and national through XX national One employees represents award. an are team Those Camden's winner values honor best year, And selected their Awards and ACE as players. Team are core achieve values a Award leadership ACE of national program. and ACE Camden peers be selected Being can individuals best for our Camden. Each Camden's highest to coworkers employees meeting. celebrated We the recognized the our winners. annual our live the is X employees,

of I introduce [ Award national you ACE to want to Santos one for our ]. XXXX, winners Castelo

[Presentation]

on It's our improve who a at will we time. folks honor certain like values Santos world, it X no in our our of Camden going what's residents that experience lives one matter our the ensure make teammates, to stakeholders, and always that the

and year-end are and a year. began this have estate legal Our We XXXX, refinancing a prepared growth the in develop transactions. as the XXXX for teams they finance, investment had of may sales opportunities busy strong balance closing with real $X.X accounting, and over beginning billion sheet

Our strong operations year teams to positioned XXXX. are in submarket outperform and and finished support local again our the competitors

over and demographics units from more driven job migration will growth. projected a dynamics demand traditional will share with XXX,XXX market Apartments to little market. single-family XXX,XXX apartment be conditions. be year -- from range market XXXX apartment should is to a projected apartment is transition absorbed. supply starts a to in plummet are a more deliveries to due constructive XXXX after the in over be XXXX markets. by to low absorbed XXX,XXX Camden's than nationwide market take the XXXX absorption units peak difficult new

current XXXX. because, the interest signs This no home XXXX share of Apartments in is XXXX, and formations. of prices average XXXX market is rising at and XX% rates, share an household double projected to apartments market XX-year had first, wage to pressure of between the workforce through XX% growth. rates markets Beginning home affordability in and low are XX% to adults all-time that with growth and growth. continues Camden to grow. households at Camden's is live the are to solid job with to an markets More even young continue the continuing high. alone, soon, lead of In-migration nation choose in to anytime job easing which fall. and with

to know equipped looks and and what that do great Team residents. very a to team forward that Camden excel by year. all is friends great Camden I teammates. be our interesting ready XXXX for in look Camden Thank for and you, our We being to you

Keith Oden is up next.

Ric. Thanks,

their our Property and X.X%, underperformance to X evictions quickly County Orange over their bad from related and another we Same fraud. by projections. achieved XXXX. of basis the the and revenue than conditions original for points reasons skips Phoenix, grew Six within of market X, anticipated remaining markets more mainly XXXX, Of the outperformed consistent budgets. of debt, our resulted with Atlanta, and original In XX results course L.A., For underperformed both moderating budget

side markets outsized For California supply of the majority on anticipate markets Southeast this be given Florida, Austin, are be we to from to year. revenue X.X% underperform while Property and with XXXX, our range within new the of along positive to Orlando, Same likely in competition that Southern range. expected outliers X.X%, The Nashville with the will falling

Our between and Orange top Empire, Houston Charlotte. Metro, San X Inland D.C. X% Southeast and Florida, markets and should County, includes Diego L.A., achieve XXXX X% Washington, revenue growth

and for Atlanta, budgeted between X Tampa, and growth revenue next Denver, X% Raleigh X% Our include markets Phoenix. are and

have X%. markets Orlando, minus X or expected are Nashville of Austin, to growth plus Dallas, of revenue Our and remaining

As B as assigning markets order generally compared overall and of moderating markets you A- with outlook We we of of our conditions our moderating year expected a beginning many letter last each year. their forecast at grade an a performance to XXXX. as a in the a with in outlook our ranking have portfolio grades know, of during to currently tradition

our call our and Our is included today's card website deck, incorporated which on into as of call. part is earnings report after will full slide webcast be available this

to will the is the and overall market course us outperform we XXXX, outlook. remains Sunbelt-focused growth moderate allow economy to over job While our the expected of healthy, U.S. expect footprint

and for continued the given the data in year. XXXX, across XXX,XXX strong of their We from relative the XX range markets from providers XXX,XXX in-migration homes buying forecasts apartments to reviewed projections XXXX markets of unaffordability We single-family see home. course our expect completions several into a over demand and Camden's to third-party supply

After expect roughly submarket price our to for portfolio. and the XX,XXX we XX% those new locations deliveries, that be are deliveries between of may competitive analyzing new points these XX,XXX units and existing

and improvement ranking out B the moderating Houston receiving Orange with other and XXXX moderating as in XXXX. Charlotte strong a and top as as with a residents ranked many markets the L.A., in Metro their B+. will of were the outlooks. growth come expected same X Their remain of and slow County units from top the top B entering with Southeast an actually who a X% markets rent. growth Orange they our as have a revenue to to rates outlooks. L.A., thus from vacant San We and for Orange Our anticipate X round fourth X X as an our the L.A. reduction A, as we the with primarily XXXX, A- D.C. quarter we've in County are they improving County, pay achieved Florida in Inland XXXX repopulate Empire bad Washington, Therefore, X% debt an outlook for range Diego

will level a also County supply should also year, this manageable a of serve which see Orange benefit. L.A. as

of is XXXX. XXXX should it ranks in remains year of #X Supply projected our so we X% submarkets coming deliveries number will over average during XXXX, we Charlotte decline elevated growth main continue the likely in the performer, this course market year. aggregate steady fall End in in into had competition closer still of perform and year. well portfolio the which The our MSA versus and #X Uptown to the but in check revenue with above in X% competitive should South almost Houston as this the an level reported Charlotte will growth be expect units X,XXX than submarket, to is XXXX. receive the slated year, and our to this supply Our

to and continue primarily over our to in our average demand. has should XX% that growth in years, over will The averaging our has X with past Tampa be Denver met growth slightly outlooks. been year. up single-digit Deliveries range revenue trend the X X ratings market Similar growth. the years XXXX. X been earned year, and Houston B Denver's Tampa moderating but to above and low this slow also for portfolio will last of in submarkets, revenue or #X tick the annual with solid Charlotte, this

built supply B- New our our outlook. product but the to the assessment of being market with most St. in conditions current our Atlanta, submarkets of competition improving there. of assets we looks high-rise actively with be there, Petersburg rates In for are recently submarket X new delivered an manageable monitoring in

XXXX, during to in expect XXXX. to X% Similar our less the Orange which growth boost in reduction debt we from revenue see than bad should a achieved County, L.A.,

XXXX, the anticipate we MSA competition submarket. supply to will and the Atlanta Midtown in continue in most new from our On front, deliveries new add units

Next average they portfolio for to for remain again, these outlooks. both area Raleigh may stable in grades X% as that growth XXXX of with competition also face growth. under these under just fall Dallas X% markets our its this market averages, B-, once supply the the but while outlook, assets mark from both versus of should that And and stable up revenue only deliveries. in In with elevated receiving handful of performed XXXX are markets a rate Phoenix, we expect head-to-head XXXX just year. revenue and aggregate, in growth will levels historical but B- face of each X% a would with a

in-migration, level muted keep of and the still rent and to ranks power one nation's there. year job for Dallas of this outsized as growth supply the pricing top While growth set metros will deliver

dropped levels strong, growth quarters, from for in but slated Orlando above delivered for outlook. past completion with result earning revenue in likely recent the of for a thus The XXXX, few C+ this years, growth to economy the in remains average Orlando grade it revenue outsized will above a year. market minimal below average average moderating but has

as Austin, Our in X to of flat of Nashville markets directly revenue rank and for supply et markets growth top they those last both sheer the new delivery negative life, compete ranked quality for for those XX% with of in-migration, top job growth, may coming to we construction the of believe in in of result will U.S. Camden's recent and scheduled of as slightly And markets new markets. The new quarters, assets. likely in while amount supply multi-family X markets, XX% also XXXX consistently apartments cetera.

both current of conditions. ratings respectively, signed C-, remainder market markets stable given the and have outlook of We C for a XXXX with

quarter Now up renewals and negative more X.X% a Rental the January X.X%. operating results of trends. fourth in a had down signed for for rates few rate X.X% leases XXXX on XXXX details our new blended

fourth and during moderation signed XXXX, the for purchase slightly fourth quarter leases renewals of Our date. Occupancy preliminary is January 'XX. on In of in renewal low rate year new average very for likely blended the slight will And January February our same the as improvement XX.X% a range. of in for 'XX. remain leases with homes expected, the full move-outs XX.X% January remained in X.X%. move-outs an sent averaged at indicate the results to quarter range. XX.X% offers 'XX, trending January a were to increase occupancy March signed in same better out and

turn now Financial Chief call Jessett, Officer. Alex Camden's the to I'll over

Thanks, Keith.

and update recent and financial capital Before our our activity. real guidance, on to markets results on move a brief estate I

XXX-unit, Charlotte, and a leased. located $XXX the Woodmill began in at single-family quarter million NoDa, fourth XXX in million Durham, XXXX, we XX% Camden is at a completed community North leasing Camden XXX-unit, approximately Creek, million new Texas, the construction in development Woodlands, of During $XX unit, We Carolina. $XXX Camden which leasing continued Durham, community a we now rental on

was the hold Additionally, million. XX-year a quarter, an management XX-year-old Costa at $XXX approximate Mesa, at XX.X% in Camden period. and fees our unleveraged end a X.X% and community over sold California, Martinique, CapEx almost sold the of actual community for XXX-unit, yield generated after we return The

notes of at with floating recognize $XXX yield we will note. loan. swapped issued XXX rate million $XXX we at repaid quarter rate a loan X-year end, fixed X.XX%. notes SOFR prepaid prepayment, a conjunction associated charge X.X% we senior the after term with $XXX X.XX%. the our $XXX coupon unsecured quarter, offering a of amount coupon X.X% million, senior January XX-year of loan plus subsequently Additionally, a unsecured noncore on points. floating maturity, million unamortized million issued of and to the After fixed entire during we a costs. of basis XX, of quarter senior with term unsecured In We $XXX,XXX approximately of end, the And with Also, we

debt As rate. of today, approximately XX% of fixed our is

fund availability over next and credit XX $XXX full $X.X of our only our maturities to months almost $XXX facility existing under million have we with billion than pipeline. million under have less We the left development

Our net Xx. balance sheet strong with at debt-to-EBITDA remains

Last funds resulted share, financial bad to $X.XX from outperformance almost midpoint quarterly lower-than-anticipated of reported of for levels night, million operations guidance. of $XXX.X Turning the XXXX of quarter $X.XX from results. our the we per debt. prior ahead entirely core This of fourth or

we As previously reported, in we quarter. bad which experienced in forecasted unusual to September, an through the debt, extend spike fourth

and Fortunately, fourth forecast appears quarter as debt bad of September the X.X%. anomaly, averaged compared have to to been for an X.X% our

ahead for our quarter Additionally, forecast. delivered of the same-store occupancy we basis XX XX.X%, points fourth of

and NOI of XXXX, delivered For growth same-store X.X%, of X.X% revenue of growth X.X%. growth we expense

fourth the outlook. for quarter assumptions package our driving can our refer supplemental key XXXX XX to financial of on You details Page

share We $X.XX share our the an $X.XX representing midpoint decrease in to FFO of from be range expect results. with our of XXXX $X.XX per the to $X.XX XXXX core per

XXXX either balances of $XXX lower approximately XXXX, decrease of resulting in A result certain compared related complete in by decrease per in from capitalized nonsame-store core offset communities lower the to we an our interest $X.XX retail debt partially contribution communities. development levels from expense This XXXX. communities X anticipated million FFO operating outstanding primarily from is average incremental increase share as as the share in from anticipated our development, approximate growth income XXXX to interest $X.XX in to per to attributable and and/or during lease-up development primarily

result week. balances Atlanta the next an an debt and lower mentioned Martinique disposition from The $XXX disposition million scheduled previously Camden of additional for community

rate of million of we average $XXX average credit under on rate X.X% are our on of million approximately an rate $XX average and approximately bond. X.X% For unsecured our floating with XXXX, outstanding anticipating line an

management additional not other and increased increase fees in are fee We income, contracting and any asset anticipating per balances. on offerings cash share from in earned XXXX. resulting and general bond unsecured A $X.XXX interest and interest third-party

approximate in average and $XXX of higher administrative XXXX, million decrease, anticipated an by increase dispositions, $X.XXX share assuming the cumulative the cash approximately completed decrease is FFO management core FFO $X.XX offset the are from per an We $X.XXX entirely $X.XX per share $XX balances in XXXX next an X.X%. in per share decrease million core earning This of share property approximate primarily from per resulting approximate and of and anticipated from combination disposition week expenses. general

growth we of are revenue same-store income X.X% flat At same-store growth per the core expecting X% midpoint, net $X.XXX FFO. operating is in approximately Each share expense with in NOI X.X%. and of increase

flat at is earning Our lease. XXXX X.X% midpoint and of upon revenue to loss the growth based of end same-store approximate X.X% an effectively an XXXX

budgeted in annual increase December X.X% increase growth X.X% from our market this recognizing rates a market XXXX XX, XX, expect rental also net market a embedded increase, half results rents. of with XXXX combined We in rental to December rate XXXX, in

fees year, revenues XXXX. property our increased through of utility X% quarter basis to by The XXXX a revenues. grow power is due fourth assuming rental the pricing our at encompasses bad are XX our point and regulatory income to X.X% XX% moderate net and similar XX% remaining to Rental XX rebilling of combining budgeting constraints. income with continues to is X.X%. of We total market year, growth are reaching of comprised for our decreased rental When a our we rental X.X% basis and rents, the and level income anticipated primarily other debt debt, the decline averaging bad increase in improvement point full over in that

midpoint of expense growth insurance from increases. same-store anticipated results X.X% above-average XXXX primarily Our

total X.X% is as providers increase of pressures. represents losses by large to Insurance and face and global to expenses our XX% anticipated operating financial insurance continue resulting

to and expenses operating approximately at in represent taxes, remaining operating XX% the including X% total approximately of to are Our grow property expenses aggregate, X.X% projected our anticipated which are XXXX. approximately in increase

our dilution an or matching of accretion midpoint of Excluding million with of assumes acquisitions, the these dispositions $XXX net from additional by range our disposition million week, transactions. next $XXX no guidance offset planned

Page second XX starts approximately for in details our $XXX plan supplemental of $XXX development the up total for the development million XXXX of the half of also other million including XXXX, spend. and year assumptions to package of

of reset for of fourth which XXXX, We quarter expenses expect and seasonal $X.XX the midpoint from of quarter the in sequential core per result accrual of decline approximate an XXXX attributable share tax the other timing each represents FFO same-store quarterly $X.XX the per first annual per on timing primarily to of is same-store primarily increase resulting share range in including The from increases, $X.XX. the share the property share be our per within decrease X $X.XX of to approximate $X.XXX salary $X.XX trends, an of to tax by on-site driven expense the NOI, increases. of typical refunds, January of sequential year a

primarily partially per offset in $X.XXX sequential increase share of same-store income. from revenue, levels other a is and fee higher by This

planned of We are decrease share $X.XXX flat attributable disposition per $X.XXX decrease resulting share our to effectively XX, XXXX, various approximate An week $X.XX next accruals. quarter-to-quarter. attributable $XXX will primarily per approximate Martinique, an other Camden an share December million our of per and anticipating $XXX disposition from corporate to approximate occupancy the remain timing decrease million

partially damage include quarterly proceeds as mentioned quarter from This expense, charge a of balances unamortized Gerri, in per our for per core additional lower in $X.XX associated FFO $X.XXX to to offset FFO an increase $X.XXX loan share combined by on debt and costs core interest share with earned $X.XX cash in approximate first decrease with per from disposition resulting is result and income an approximate costs a sequential associated noncore litigation term interest share cumulative decrease the related previously matters. Storm loan freeze from Winter Anticipated related balances. adjustments the the the

open to call questions. up we time, this will At the

Instructions] UBS. the question And first [Operator from Goldsmith with will Michael come

you jobs built added. today, just the have a bit guidance Can into assumptions talk your macro you XXX,XXX little that we're seeing about

can much the elasticity response? continue market. to is job lines are Sunbelt an how the guidance update of So bit your those by could there little provide also, along on that the -- trips And there then in migration your influenced a be part as you

Sure.

for blowout, December and backdrop is. be -- the think on think it So demand overall what based to revision certainly job believe XXXX. Clearly, putting slowed going And it right? the job a is that And markets think, in I our in number not today blowout we was definitely, definitely market calling most market it the we of numbers. for is our thought and has is -- growth job the dramatically I economic

us. job look more helps in When obviously, So it's where at our growth growth job is, you markets. the

have post-COVID, led at job that. you If and do in nation look the we'll to Florida and continue Texas growth

is good us, that obviously definitely our kind baked into not it's it numbers. very So and -- of is drop for growth not

When job gone mean market to I in it Camden family the think, average really know, we people somebody share in houses had, increased think right, about my we've to demand you total XXXX driving at hard driven growth today. market XX%, was household XXXX. buy we is we happening single-family XX% everything that's historic multifamily -- in the of for is from -- beginning demand of XXXX, What's out single a a I a in formations multifamily of house of really XX.X% buy don't as and has moved that call, from by total in to said driving I been think taking what's and that been demand.

those about And time past alone, so XX% way dynamics, which broader And is from too, is of are apartments. benefits there's other think dynamics, and that number Americans and that today when up living you frame. the

continue interesting. the job it at help blowout And we pretty numbers will level, So obviously our be if numbers. this

plus you units talk XXX,XXX expect the at completions. demand over XXX-unit XXXX in can in-migration, right, look or demand a migration. When and As that's far example, supply, minus, in side, as or about for of on you Alex, we

get in you the showing And down in total look you it. to for so to XXX,XXX U.S., it's But ultimately, 'XX projection pretty 'XX. out, example, when their demand for from balanced XXX,XXX when XXX,XXX

X driven being anymore is of today, demand X the every for drivers different by work old because So adage jobs. It apartment in-migration. doesn't just of just not the

total and might COVID, to -- and also that's actually is just thing cities, but it's back and during [ not to I'm anything because normal not was immigration Alex, from way opining us, ] other so border hit immigration, more the in-migration The legal tend other immigration helped now or in-migration too. that, it's down bit. it's immigrants like this a you -- on is those

absolutely. Yes,

So our we strong continue have to in-migration really to apartment.

So we've our over us, fairly from at the years. in moved if way, By who move-ins. the consistent about it quarter, you for fourth to seen of those the with XX.X% was look total of have non-Sunbelt what that's couple Sunbelt past

searches or track that So New searches apartments California as 'XX. were markets. quarter looking really searches Google up the to compared 'XX we of -- for in apartments other in quarter 'XX. Texas give that this fourth to our a the interesting really of that for And remains is you the quarter things one to of York quarter the California for from as we in York to in people of just fourth -- of fourth New to 'XX And fourth the Texas XX% compared were up strong. the is rent to apartments people track XX% in me,

folks out California out very York, strong demand still to coming So markets. our of for New of

question Evercore Sakwa ISI. from Steve with Next will come

that on will the and willing guys to how firmer? a occupancy really question lower for drift I'm assumptions? I into and But solving more is leasing new what what Or give I on are I were you are side? rate pricing of really of kind your let renewal here guess and asking sort you occupancy keep up blended spreads occupancy guess tied your new implicit had maybe and

Yes.

leases XXXX XXXX, occupancy going in to that number and year. patterns. full sort to trade is are What follow think compared And we're down you of be the And and blended increase a that of driving the XX.X%. for going renewals be for lease we to up towards to would number. what is renewals that be is X.X%, that seasonal and X.X%. So at flat new is we When look as X.X% new typical assuming we're anticipating out

The next will come Brad Markets. RBC Heffern question with from Capital

Can talk a growth how you would how supply where differential that for 'XX backdrop? normal guide would compared these your why you you market given just about rent to the assumptions without I in all you the so year in said growth think to guess normally X.X% supply year? start rent the is headwinds? right And I that --

would the obviously by there. parameters supply Yes. mean, own typical is unique and X%. In factors around every were every year We X.X%, its -- and the demand. see supply And obviously, typically different, driven you that's that year year is has business, at our we're and I can

a but incredibly about year. issues, prepared still talked are cognitive why the remarks, for coming strong, we've As on demand the with think that's up supply we we and full you're X.X% the is of

XXXX basically in So that for came it. for the demand the the They across ended we and of markets providers. X of used X employment we different up out growth forecast taking Brad, growth data of But in job today, views about got the employment primary midpoint total about Camden's around because them the And just data midpoint could we that story issue they X was they our tell context to January. of XXXX, month their had the very on number and of for both had put providers it own XXX,XXX. that

around tried the projected month, having clearly, anything we've so... the some think job year forecast the I to forecast. -- But and build entire first realism anticipate it's So our for like the not in numbers did in the growth

question from KeyBanc come Wurschmidt with Austin Capital next The will Markets.

as you're new I know has what guys you as just on what are that but across just portfolio, of concessions don't seeing just changed the across of I far to those the kind was most offer wondering, concessions exposed stabilized wondering some supply? markets

there -- anywhere markets. of you're more and typical we've Generally, significant, to anywhere from And weeks And toughest X When be free, go month the get that's seeing months beyond kind Nashville. merchant as markets are to -- Texas Austin, what from builders markets. X free. some you're then like that It's constraint don't supply max. X would to to but aren't months what you The supply very concessions pressured, X seen. most the other X those X, in compared we're in X months that of to of markets seeing the

with from Rich next The question will come Anderson Wedbush.

we're in year could of than which downdraft think into like today your XXXX So better I as I in a possibility portfolio? could for said, of looks least wonder that think in EQR revenue we well, see terms view. you sort expectations most peak that your what and in actually in or little absorbed a if the is in talk the means of at lot Avalon in, a seeing next of the theory, people declines feel no wheelhouse Either is bit longer-term supply about peak supply 'XX one outlook, knows sure. Do the full going

the in the use, we is And XXX,XXX the growth the units projection we -- for supply even year, on mark, real something XXX,XXX nationwide, So of you the Based the providers in not demand you ago, think they of over slow with projections like demand an the issue, supply show the a about, the minute demand. I our it's downtick. a at units. low And this for discussion look when know year, they're or some that then uptick job about following project 'XX is had right? a if markets, supply -- very

market right? not market inventory the growth, demand in perspective of and market. single to multifamily. so taking about drivers, on always single-family today, in are about rent down share interestingly demand the from a drivers -- enough, cost So It's And job lack resale it's usual been just families it's because upside

was usually, up want single-family had or and you homebuilders look to inventory want happened of. buy -- when And high, hardcore interest lay houses because X- And a pretty new you a that hiatus in when or you a today, at people house, a pretty rates go building what's buy that's what's off to and -- buy, America X-month the buy continuing. about to have for and They crash to you all single-family be then to there buy went to if the house new have really you to buyers back is this if no much much house. interesting --

that So I drivers in this positive be that these as well. XXXX demand actually going to demand driving are XXXX that are in are in think for outlook place And really -- you that it's in can to not you like especially a of January going every a growth this have month -- print say if be sure I'm is job looks year. backdrop

a job with stronger XXXX might is people thought absorption could it and that the the clearly, market be, than help and lot But well. in as

you've that in the bottoming uptick we where So most absorbed because bottom many I XXXX and haven't numbers they're a of going they seen so are start see many -- units an show in from XXXX. rents XXXX They're down. that very lot in projections XXXX folks, then

Eric Wolfe with will from The next Citi. come question

a So wrong, gain had but if you assume that this lease today. me correct I to is

to increases. was March, sent on longer right And like history, out So and about February type your sort X% wondering X.X% for think I to rate gain you was X.X% just renewals wondering lease renewal I achieve of be on level where for based then would able the through certain that to there's to you're pass what a no that? if

all, to not we're of first actually at a gain So lease.

gain loss going to we're first fourth we're And lease excuse lease. no flat math, about new full the new our really with the differential for basically When other then a me, look get the question, somebody quarter the think -- that we're a is we a what renewals. or X.X%, I differential. it right fairly think renewal -- When -- about leases which a have and renewals, around anticipating the differential close really sign year out. you actual the X.X% lease of between sending is We between to around to only we're at sort percentage-wise for so

is and not we So it's problematic. that something that significant not think

The from St. next will question Haendel come

Juste Mizuho. with

up could a guide. I moment for development see the you hoping you $XXX million of starts, have Just here. talk to including about new

see how from we perspective yield those they're and markets see we which when So today could IRR starts, can curious penciling or those a in?

into figure what we The the mid-Xs that IRR and be. in of we yields. in to low But Xs cap in walk-up it's terms today 'XX year, an in to we have deliver. complicated think to and ultimately, pretty of of when you at going expect yields And those half to suburban year IRRs, developments from are anywhere market given how look could rates when to And be would kind constructive deliver the stabilized 'XX. the depending these in really you product. or 'XX going there's are And that they're properties a model X-story Charlotte start the are and that unfolds the in model the 'XX so in on back we type

We the and a that's simple they're relative pipeline these other same number price them because a urban come market is in in have markets. X high-rise they well another attractive. pretty as to in But point affordable pretty in the of very -- at

And real then tax guide. estate maybe the Okay. on

X.X%, real selling expense there obvious given lower taxes you for were it of think maybe also, your headwinds into little we're guide You to new was we've I I'm thinking benefiting what us. that's in something else us seen if from recently, bit perhaps less norm here A and there. curious I kind the or same-store than peak you're lot estate past of a think think mentioned, a I and Alex, certainly embedded

absolutely. Yes,

tax guidance if property about same the And X%. that have is the think that we it, number in our you XXXX. we So experienced in it's really number

prior we earnings long-term Texas X% was with so as new is And calls, seems back passed very that that range. you And the to sort reverting the in that which a in Texas. favorable are it year. especially taxes, to we is X.X% Really, property mean, is driver of discussed when big last it comes to bill that have

low be our pretty benefit And taxes. makes think in are And of taxes to a our we're property is row. XX% going a about Texas which that of in so total receiving that about up that we all year for of number, property really X.X%, second a actually and the up

that's there. primary So driver the

from The next Alexander Sandler. Goldfarb question will come Piper with

Camden beginning I think XXX,XXX at close go I delivered I to the Keith, XXX,XXX this would want they're back, to Just expectation or think Ric like mentioned this units the think absorption be But which unit -- call, of you markets. of be to expected in the XXX,XXX, nationally for year. the XXX,XXX year,

the on as better but then -- to therefore, to suggesting the to that, going of jobs comments into more the are apartments wanted understand it's part you factor, all single-family just versus household also continue really the that you we next understand what's absorption. are share where of of versus going factor historically around more So the And year. with And obviously really the be that's would sustain? housing will now formation supply,

And the amazing on. answered mean still we're we're it and it's that a question. demand, you different what drivers all are of household a the of look job function Yes, demand we're and formations it's able historically, apartments from lot for you jobs, that right? has -- to you going double long -- without growth, today, like at look it sounds share taking I a been time. and It produce if that's what's a at

to doubled effect. happening the tripled single-family in -- market it's even the sale buy share of at because what's lock-in inventory and as of same the because of single-family is that's homes market lack from least their the the maybe so has almost And norm of for

of an to continuing have cost from immigration situation high here in-migration, and homeownership we benefit So you from cities. are and other to from both where benefit interesting continuing in-migration international the

a there's kind that's soft if be the that of of forth these we And the landing to we seems if going supply. numbers put So a lot will, yes, right, units is that. to close running demand being model to you demand, create, for under But the construction, know it there. -- that's the

that. [indiscernible] talking Alex And

versus Yes, XXX,XXX. the the XXX,XXX

the going No. XXX,XXX is is you not be, numbers... absorption those have Keith, to what absorption

just platform in completions XXX,XXX that to And apartments Yes, in XXXX. Camden's markets, Camden's modeling want are the about that across have yes, that number to XXX,XXX -- drops in we're we XXXX. clarify I

It's sure talking in make national XXX,XXX we're Camden's apples numbers. and markets. So apples just versus to

Yes. into the And doesn't all part get pipeline coming in that that is as XXX,XXX XXXX delivered in A of XXXX. well.

from Feldman will question come with Wells Fargo. Next Jamie

I get timing of just on wanted fundamentals. your to thoughts

both signed. they worse much new you it then look January thinking but and an your And for slightly guidance current leases, if were seems in on about So like your just versus your occupancy, effective occupancy negative, at projected uptick.

versus about So the you you think is? the January and better half, do into you or Or bat? do where the first better January do numbers the the to the kind is that that's think think going half it was half, an when you think look anomaly back gets just of off are and -- that pickup back --

a What than January tell So the are are anticipating blended have leases in January blended first trade leases is quarter -- in X.X%. outs the about our that effective, we in of is to going new signed better signed our leading thing first which you I are look me, of you improvements. would if we're at indicator excuse

helpful are but year as, in a to going throughout And the the occupancy we also quarter. flat better us. of our So at we remain which today, hit comps, are quarter we for first then move where uptick then very one, from third XX%. have as into is quarter the sort second comes strong the number we slight from seasonal we the are anticipating periods that improvement And

it XQ or think And then [indiscernible]? strong in you you stays

got occupancy blended out we've trade XQ about of Yes, a and XX.X%. X.X% of

see. you that of the follows that I sort think So normal seasonal would patterns

from Kramer Stanley. will Morgan with The next come question Adam

given to at further And sheet external specifically, happen of be mean needed is, I quarter end, EBITDA be just kind number? underlevered upside would of balance at the acquisitions the that growth acquisition into what I about where to ask and sheet? to you to debt balance Xx net kind to wanted step

going -- So are value that way right see and down, buyers market to the between been in acquisitions a spread bid-ask is though we even huge see now don't on capital. have yields, a would volumes happen sellers. thing just of we acquisition primary in There's of have better still lot we just don't transaction other to -- uses the there's see versus there's --

pipeline and build obviously, move to they need supply there the their in to apartments. by merchant kind the They the not their some mean, of that all I primarily recharge organizations. at and building at Now say this is point, point, some with crop that's change. that built current development of are of been community, doesn't new past of that's business

of -- more would they way have I all think and way too so their holdings. normally much development all pipeline in care -- And than to they they have terms

are between capital product it. be to to the permanent willing people at supply demand. find So going in to transaction supply some rationalization build point, needs there's not in the the home, and not have community that do that But market rental just in merchant a a a the to market that between and provide

we're patient just being the strategy is for So we yet. don't think group, market. the there we just acquisition latter now are right And think in we the right

who and compared last this the course, completed there, we to of of team our is start a versus of and I having this massive year there's the dance. categorize optimism a rates were But just still keeping this of NMHC some. to is because people want acquisition buy between sort sell. sell. had, during year, some -- headlights. And as to and spread And who little people headlights week, of out off disposition the have kind the more And just bid-ask -- year last come pressure the huge people down less would that's to during people want cautious of

And someday. do are if be the mistake rates people do -- that sort how to question And rates? they to terms model will want lower can yet or and what on to of we're the going now in does And And it's the what falling create trajectory, years. forward? financially don't I these we're it easier scenario about the therefore, happens optimistic sure market so operating fundamentals point. there year X that more how was, a enter people the think now with what like X acquisition the a because of last Fed feel in a looks works I today all make that a look inflection for next not to rate things But world

The next with question Markets. Kim will from John BMO Capital come

cap do to It's great. calculated California forward, where I selling about this the of particular Vantage your ask be not Atlanta. one asset? or Sunbelt dispositions. in old. didn't Camden see to It's activity, wanted will be guess, north core of going it see that pricing in this so I month, in We focused on you going you're was I Why markets. more else disposition X%, But of rate my products? older your

X.XX% adjusted and think I'll X.XX%. cap tax question first, a of take this But at opine maybe I fee rate before Keith Vantage, So on management choice. the showing management the for and CapEx then an rate fees are X.XX% disposition cap using we actual yield at cap can rate, AFFO a Camden and

calculating. lower you're a yield than definitely So

as a up conversations assets of submarkets, with came have a ongoing that keep care about take of management's the one else there to if rather of. of one on I and And be always our mean that conversation. sale list or they which side, of were list markets dispose assets almost the would on be groups of your out list would would in operating Yes. be someone And that Vantage we

So leave it just I'll that. at

just up, on CapEx I the follow Vantage? Can what consumption was

a door, on it's have probably you I'll CapEx The that Yes. the with get $X,XXX back to I around to one, think but exact.

question will Janney. come with Rob from Next Stevenson

given you dispositions, half minimal come. at sell are free sizeable the aggressive may more assets and flow Just loaded would how and corresponding Keith's to market best be development spending is, back it and seems all the your acquisitions? how end willing given be Because remaining, the come cash if leverage that low at without like doesn't not acquisitions on draft commentary acquisition the

Yes.

match assumes acquisitions. and guidance we our dispositions basically So that

the real dispositions would of we So of we then the opportunity the on be assets really zero value those a net add find wanted acquisitions corresponding answer to -- on and a that. the portfolio, And portfolio to be we're kind the gets there's would believe dollar we when want on to clearly kind would improve we we year. to look assets acquisitions, fund by of to we that to number to newer willing selling that that back of -- always assets amount and

see So in value is that to willing our working assumption we but be and pretty we're what's in then. reflected guidance aggressive the when is, not acquisitions, before

that mid-X properties the Okay. a for And The a development That's Xs basis, this stabilized on low clarity. was on you guys pipeline? was in point helpful. then talked the that start X X that current you year? yields on might stabilize to of Charlotte just about ones yields the that Or development to

the the the looks of them were low Xs. developments mid-Xs they sort development we're but have in still what and we The current are some to in in Charlotte, the new of working if model we on some wouldn't the pipeline, sort low Actually, numbers start zone. the that same. like, in The

side, the pull years? of development? development other of versus in you the And materials Okay. Or the any sort it or back given real relief labor areas on last priced are on of couple seeing is competitively still

Not yet.

much. inflation as were to you any -- been of I a haven't single costs back in we up having big couple haven't like every if month. cost. big drops X% We seen a What's X.X% the years, is happened go going mean

XXXX. That's construction a justify why challenges there so pricing. are have one in shift if And flat and math to that And just to hard competitive it's just -- really haven't It's low rents every costs have hasn't part market, in little aren't material Camden fallen. fall but doesn't that's of work flat coming you builder and you rents and merchant very to is equation, a of a the projected when has are well the down, that's that construction. that it's costs been -- really are a new starts today, you but the XXX,XXXs -- don't

Wes The next from come question with Golladay Baird. will

at going bust seeing Do to prior forecast. are delays The the any And is question yet? think year development versus you be more developers to you delivery the on risk of going this years?

fundamentals haven't And a hear through help of drop seen -- -- banks next the they're the it's of capitalized is about operating pretty The and We to we think banks much some yet. of that the that interest information borrowers anybody to their -- common help working get very economic of are are lower are going deals all definitely banks -- rates anecdotal and with that going today. -- system. years, couple bust lot well well these I going knowledge in backdrop more

major of terms I So going don't to bankruptcies not for in have there's builders. going any merchant major that defaults to perspective, you're any with think be that --

anyway. stressed still They but be think equity that in their I there to them might deals, doesn't of there's sell, mean -- most

it excess hard In have us. labor supply. delays, you terms of still because to so it's labor for to don't be get left the many people to a when project delivered We expect

delivery fair is still And when so there's to going deliveries of come. the a and amount risk in

markets and into given the those backdrop could actually you supply could And of start 'XX of supply smoother, but think lot side. when starts be delay that so that, seeing the will, equation. 'XX, be 'XX some landing and if beneficial plummet a for of 'XX we more some they to into If our softer and do the of the or demand I more that actually demand

from question Paolone come with The next JPMorgan. will Anthony

So stress to lot the right opportunities just is now. a isn't there it the create sounds of in system, like

what stock? to to back buy some wondering it use So capacity you might take for

when the around challenge when of the sense. opportunity made Yes. the would yes, in constantly are doing We've about of buying and We've But that it -- makes It's think trappings little bit and we for it And available. stock in set size always about. a of allocation back the rules talked sense terms that capital. the we've pursue it's because discussed at and something it's windows stock the in -- that buying we something when so. in a haven't we do look we been bashful to opportunity past, of the

Okusanya Omotayo will question Deutsche from come next The with Bank.

Yes.

on thoughts $XX doesn't debt The you really Just forecast expense. where that from X.X% much were at change of bad was XQ. million, total revenues

moratoriums post improvements all So fraud why not improvement on seeing the we're the just management of wondering kind side. and incremental

of So normal. trying I where what right think to we're in we're is unprecedented out sort times new the figure now

which that this at fourth we're have look And the points, and this, we some at got basis the how assuming quarter. been then math. point, a we're what quarter so And we XX it being first But then the this patient return out. had is historic seeing potential year. sort is lot plays upside all point, Clearly, like latter if some running our go the the second as improvements we just what before slight of norm and to into through part of we of

with from The next Robyn question will Luu Street. come Green

nonrecurring year, the budget in you. provide what's a for question Can spend? was high CapEx. up driving There for particularly you to just as the decent step more Alex, CapEx in a detail

absolutely. Yes,

we and some things couple of projects the large through And have So communities that we've couple exterior projects do. that need they're got are running around a side. that a of we foundational have focused to nonrecurring mainly

the through you've So that's what got going math.

Do you 'XX 'XX extend expect or to properties that as in like other to well?

our at so. think a every year, deep expect. We communities, do really through don't go of I as you dive would look and all No, we

so been were identified. that these communities of And a have couple

challenges we have foundational they we the said, needed I exterior did and As that fix. knew to

to a to like expect in is intention see done it in our this XXXX, get so And and number I wouldn't 'XX.

closing our Ric the back Please like session. I Mr. to to concludes for turn would question-and-answer This go ahead, any sir. Campo conference over remarks.

to like appreciate opportunity you being on what be Great. today. call for the through looks go year. XXXX Well, the to We thank interesting an

X. conference or So here in month circle and the in we'll see the you circuit next

and So take you. care, thank

The conference for you Thank concluded. now attending presentation. today's has

may You disconnect. now