Camden Property Trust (CPT) 3 May 242024 Q1 Earnings call transcript

Good morning, and welcome to Camden Property Trust's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Kim Callahan, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

Joining me today are Ric Campo, Camden's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Keith Oden, Executive Vice Chairman; and Alex Jessett, President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's event is being webcast through the Investors Section of our website at camdenliving.com, and a replay will be available this afternoon.

We will have a slide presentation in conjunction with our prepared remarks and those slides will be available on our website later today or by e-mail upon request.

If you are joining us by phone and need assistance during the call, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key, followed by zero. in ask during questions be an presentation will to opportunity afterwards. participants listen-only the mode with All And please note, this event is being recorded.

our filings risks forward-looking no can opinions, we SEC, be that actual today's Further with materially forward-looking information future these our to performance, Before Any the advise company obligation we could These in them. call statements current about cause begin supplement or statements statements prepared you involve encourage guarantees assumes would these update beliefs. expectations. I and from we of the current and not like of expectations found everyone and because that differ events. based on to risks will results represent review management's made statements subsequent making and to are be on our remarks, to and uncertainties

first reminder, financial on in of Investors Section Camden's a is includes this release to As at it available complete be XXXX discussed the which and will reconciliations website quarter our call. earnings camdenliving.com, measures, non-GAAP

time, in we additional this within we'd to I'll to by respond to the turn phone like to call complete queue call our the then limit hour, you additional queue speak At be to the so with to questions call time please the or everyone today, if happy have Campo. Ric concludes. to and would respect your If e-mail rejoin everyone's discuss. questions over after We are one unable one, items

the that anonymous truly third-party on XX work? being list on the survey company has a and once agree Magazine's shows would consists important Taking cause the the consecutive everything one, being there's their We with for with a of motivated administered smiling it certainly and We statement. don't workplace, were support want today score for This if to and the to on-hold theme which what serving asks learned lives that XX% of recently employees in list. This questions, they celebrate Camden is the our employees teammates, you the our final and most believe excellence, workplace. that that of teammates annual on XXX a is and again smiling, is a list. The this no Camden place thank If the this is residents inclusion remarkable for say for this to of years Work shareholders Fortune celebration. account, [indiscernible]. great committed on into Companies would the that survey. and customers, this employees leads living included We great to XX The their chance of For. which on to agree company's value Kim. smiling to make a shareholders. purpose based because Camden leads our improving included our Camden of celebrations. Camden always customers Best love part teammates continued list I Team commitment with do statement. ever marks appreciate Fortune X/X been prestigious music list of company's they employee Thanks, we a was

market credits that low falling. from we at are government XXXX, apartments limiting over by is in our likely quarter jump and volume XXX,XXX XX-year is post-COVID supply Yes, into apartment I of peak adjusting And news the time development that behind yes, support. right just rent the low of are rate most in for in interest growth and now. properties deliveries. Starts that April quickly first the primarily The apartment is the us, highs With and down our tax about, for using weakest will apartment issue frenzy. March starts the most fall good since to talking driven other markets. markets will spend were XX% to we XXXX income

New would be point. XX-year delivery low XXXX should peak a in which in and XXXX, by supply XX% XXXX, falling in XX%

to strong. demand continues Apartment be

Employment first over recent in XXX,XXX The cities robust quarter except exposure. and cities quarter, top Camden a struggle. demand major apartments, increased where XX. limited apartment were of was of by drivers which demand the top Angeles, loss has has the Camden Los reported demographic people. on absorption East the During markets X The populations first census all that cities positive trends. the are been apartment XX in our These Coast XXX,XXX affordability reported XX are continues apartment main years. markets, The best population growth, XXX,XXX. growth employment the and of in XX bottom West most our and to XXXX-XXXX

their continues affordability been months spending growth flat. take-home apartments. XX for last the have as while relatively Apartment X% for to residents of Consumers are wage improve payout has above been less rents

income attributed a soon. our in owning This of home move-out New homes home of and not change to an rents. resident's their quarter Mortgage is a monthly buying-a-home, kept The going were today history. move-outs towards XX% is XX.X% more of leasing rising Camden X.X% anytime first buy apartment. to lowest in our than have lows. residents rates prices historic to the at pay cost

propensity a XX to to age drivers. is from trajectory. up adults, high sufficient of and supporting in Thanks. spite Keith including next. of continues Apartment should accelerating these economy assuming demand demand XXXX, under. growth XXXX share rent set supply given rent Demographic Oden larger the the overall XXXX for formations to up concerns be trends on and household current young should groups, be continue demand a tailwind take

Ric. Thanks,

in of XXXX expected, bad to and than primarily first Our performance discuss debt better Alex will taxes, detail. due quarter levels insurance lower same-property favorable and for trends which was property

in markets. would we Southeast those markets most in to D.C. Houston. growth showing And those same operating the LA surprisingly, San Nashville across ranging as X market quarter's seeing Washington, in for portfolio year, be our Orange In Overall, with Inland anticipated, markets playing out on County this the our projected were, Empire, Not last quarter. revenue the call, expected. fact, conditions X Metro, growth from outlook Austin, our negative slightly we those are Diego, we top revenue performers X.X% challenging the for and growth top with as revenue in quarter for property conditions X.X% are Florida,

X.X%, increase marketing X.X% renewals leasing for for As previously new a Rental peak we signed we the power. a to XX%. initiated into rates first negative average pricing blended of occupancy rate disclosed, our quarter boost occupancy allowing to up X.X%, during going strategy then and season, us had down leases with February of

blended July April XX.X%. basis X.X% We leases strategy for and for at an with XXX of Renewal show a results with signed preliminary improvement in rates an successful Our was new with April average our trending positive June averaging offers out [indiscernible] renewal points X.X%. resulting believe around XX.X% were occupancy recently to rate. X.X%, of sent and negative increase

rates President of XX% our driven first across moving turnover And residents in homes. very Jessett, to now remain Camden's fewer and out compared Net was quarter call buy finally, quarter over by the low, turn 'XX. the for XX% I'll to to portfolio Financial of first Officer. turnover Chief Alex 'XX the

Thanks, Keith.

guidance, results markets brief to our update recent move estate and our on a real and financial I on activity. Before capital

generating in Durham, stabilized rental NoDA, development $XX which Meadow Charlotte, a million yield. single-family We approximate in and at we XXX-unit, leasing a in Camden XXXX, a $XXX single-family Camden The at Long rental located a of community quarter in $XXX XX% million Durham, we first Farms, Camden located Texas, XXX-unit, million community XXX-unit, occupied is now and community Camden and X.X% an began Woodlands, Richmond, North $XX the new Woodmill million Texas. Creek, continued leasing Carolina, XXX-unit, During

Camden Atlanta X, for sold we XX-year-old million. Vantage, on $XXX XXX-unit, in February a Additionally, community

of notes maturity At $XXX the $XXX fixed quarter, repaid term we and beginning yield January X.X% at X.X% loan. XX-year floating a X.XX% note. our unsecured of $XXX senior the million, subsequently senior we and On prepaid of a unsecured of million rate XX, with million coupon issued

with term approximately the with unamortized conjunction prepayment, charge of costs. non-core loan a In recognized $XXX,XXX we associated loan

March our $XX share authorization. our average we shares an $XX.XX, have and repurchased common we million approximately existing During price of repurchase $XXX under remaining April, and of at million

fixed debt today, of XX% our As rate. is of approximately

no $X.X maturities next have million than left fund to facility, our $XXX the million pipeline. months, credit outstanding amounts over of less billion under than development $XXX on existing We less our XX and

sheet balance incredibly remains debt-to-EBITDA X.Xx. Our strong at with net

results. our Turning financial to

quarterly For the we of $X.XX first quarter, per FFO ahead $X.XX guidance. the of share, of prior our reported midpoint core

large first debt. lower-than-anticipated outperformance in per levels of driven and share was part by Our quarter bad $X.XXX

contracts. their enforce encouraging has Fulton operate ability in municipalities the their renters County contracts our of on All Georgia which rental have restrictions legislation now enacted to abide and to in by particular, lifted in we

of As to basis budget debt a as the quarter result, we experienced of XXX basis bad points XX compared points. in our

received at we from accelerated having move-outs order quarter, past and who renters did having as shift rental with leasing who season. delinquent to residents occupied made during maximize a Some simply commence bad resident back, abides estate the often, new due benefit debt a but repay lower rental resident of lease by our contract opportunity amounts, a to the a real the more peak than communities entered strategy delinquent did actually physical the pricing power pressure rates our on of pays. The reducing occupancy, we in we our put so less pricing XX%

entirely higher experienced offset the quarter, lower of rental result rates. that this a occupancy by As but was we during shift,

Our insurance also quarter from operating was lower outperformance core the driven by taxes. expenses and claims lower resulting and lower for first $X.XXX property

are at Although X.X%. we our year pleased outperformance, full revenue midpoint this the quarter first are our point, of we guidance at with maintaining

the we However, of are some changing assumptions. underlying

guidance the of XXXX, basis point recognized assumed to basis comprised at rate and growth end of of growth the rental market of year. XX the lease original loss approximately XX effectively X.X% of Our over points course flat our rent earn-in

original point We growth and to X.X% bad bringing the midpoint our flat lower also total revenue contribution budgeted us XXXX versus our XX from basis guidance assumed at range. of a debt, occupancy

flat now a current initiative. lease, with points XX result of basis and assumptions same basis earning Our marketing rate quarter of our loss first of a but reflects revenue point basis gains of to rental XX growth in XX market as occupancy points guidance the

revised add X.X% midpoint us addition, for points current the guidance. revenue bringing back for estimates will our In to bad growth, XX of debt revenue our basis

the by of X.XX% driven expense property of to night, guidance XX%. Last taxes. represents and lowered year we to increase was insurance full Insurance originally lower-than-anticipated and our assumption expenses X.X% from anticipated entirely X.X% our

a to in and flat we completed renewal, we insurance anticipating lower first successful insurance quarter, now be claims the will year-over-year. addition In just insurance very are

which were of originally XXXX. to our XX% X% in projected represent approximately taxes operating increase Property total expenses,

associated part particularly favorable positive tax offset property increased are very incentives year-over-year received since marketing increases X.X% associated a in assuming higher salaries, and in have in partially search costs increase. now with tax valuations, variances expenses. are engine with Houston, We These we expense performance higher and by optimization

midpoint positive taking the guidance expenses, NOI same-store XXXX into flat decrease points. basis effect After XX increased in of have the from our to we

We floating offset by cuts. same-store full maintaining at primarily midpoint associated $X.XX operating a anticipated rate is with expenses are entirely interest of accretion the the fewer year core Fed result our FFO of as as lower higher-than-budgeted rate expense, than

of in the midpoint an spend. to million with we guidance starts the dilution total from dispositions accretion net of the our At range, are million to by acquisitions, $XXX development $XXX development transactions, matching approximately million XXXX second $XXX of assuming these additional of and with year of up half no $XXX offset or the million still

second We also guidance XXXX. quarter for the of provided earnings

periods of a leasing up fees, decrease our call questions. due We and expect certain cash midpoint, representing decrease timing share the in an expected repair balances, be seasonality and various costs $X.XX offset At open sequential for as this a approximate timing per $X.XX to increase the of of time, range same-store $X.XX during $X.XX by overhead $X.XX in second decline a the $X.XX, of resulting sequential core to to NOI the we'll are the increases. the expenses per the to revenues higher primarily from income company within our at annual quarter due maintenance public to and lower interest FFO share in peak merit

Difficulty] [Technical

get more the of our full apartments take [Audio to to Gap] -- cycle, we're back. through going get

court there, make in miracles Fulton So County, I a -- did think that thing not, happened avoid they in long it to landlord -- to and [indiscernible] evicted. the was you process and of landlord or residents big pay progress, your don't -- huge an will or eviction, and your one not pay, how don't [indiscernible] if probably reckoning, ordinance the accelerated in or it's either our then for it the areas return change. of the rent To and the be the the That it's difference you nonpaying took have not most rent had day which Fulton passed alone order your pay court our you a said County, to basically amount to rent. pay rent that believe will we one was problematic of actually court to the that

So sentiment around in move of to around positive nonpayment the continues regulatory more regimes, a direction rent.

I than we answer in which XX long bit a little we back that prior and you been previous anticipated. experience, going quicker the do think COVID forever. years change XX to ever what is a happening get time, that in for is calls, ever that bad -- had are debt it's we've expense, to to my I asked the from to basis points remember was

like of long-term looks point it than back last to is XX expense so the debt more good pretty basis making experience progress. basis XX bad years. XX our points we're halfway for And

have So X hopeful in get than last number. the back that I'm of that in more we fact, to years it I been close could,

I adapting who through use bad in apartments the have identity that to of to the come go then we way can the lease pivot and theft through fact think and with we the process. technology guys sort

that we're out to new guys be like that with out before -- can't they somebody is to into people that -- a And it's able get to big our front pivot So the they properties door, bad have to technology in get the able fact find -- those to of meet to out we're when the anything part else. of you figure the go they trying when else equation. sort

really excited quickly being deploy think And to we situation. did and technology about as to so I'm that able I adapt as

next Haendel comes St. question from The

Juste with Mizuho.

on portfolio a talk seems to to into It maintained strategy the Keith, that you what you've like about maybe leasing? the back bit You rate can or about peak get here pulling occupancy operating going Ric bit for talked a April. in XX%.

is term Are be here? I'm So push bit beyond to rate which rent you push to markets plan and expect you more the do to occupancy, [indiscernible]? to some able near a willing curious, maybe to continue trade

Go ahead, Keith. Go ahead.

up then we pricing. at where we XX.X% at want looking of is XX.X% We're in-place not what you occupancy standpoint. little a time the We're actually And X again, looking the as necessarily the regained in from bit for rents. be decisions month making on And got were we what back an where And projections. basically to weeks, the quarter, not of out the X the occupancy wanted looking at since occupancy end We occupied. in look to. and to we've see April, we've we're on trended is. push that weeks -- we real at we now, We're step next right got

continue. Those Metro impacted, chance in push year. hit to we'll rents and I of have of for opportunity kind that are there's the supply power less revenue be same-store markets They're our quite to I'm better are both important really relative will that, that our in markets in pricing able our think the we're be D.C. able targets X we pool. -- that that pleased continue should for I And good and to the the well. And certainly our So to performing us. that have see going are a those think really XX% Houston. to

I about lease ask rates. If that. appreciate I new could

where expect same-store maybe revenue, the on for a assumptions is the expectation rate talk new that you mentioned you sense be to the within underlying couple of tweaked Maybe side some but over what about broadly lease that give the year had You of us and here? next of you can your your quarters?

absolutely. Yes,

probably looking that. we're negative for when assuming be and after negative around the X% new we're at So leases, quarters second that we're to next the a quarter X going right for then X%

Kim with John comes Capital question next Markets. The from BMO

I occupancy just from that's basis guidance? guess you something maintain Or has growth, what that's bad follow guidance to think better debt. market now you and how and my up basis your XX the down guidance that question into Is going is by So do you're points? points of rental higher XX that But Can that? revenue achieve? just plug realistic original offset your is I that same-store that's on

take at on exactly level reforecast do It's No. to achieve. expect we're that we going we so do we and budgets, our we our providers, original Obviously, and absolutely what we this what do conditions look think we ground, and to is data is from look like just the we achieve. the community up, what the information on all at third-party we

trade-off? And versus are are is your rate that expectations? potentially markets that Or the underperforming occupancy there original some

our then rental Well, offset, on if are much the The down it than thought think doing board. is clearly, lower across we the bring-down The again, on the better bringing the bad rate all of once you occupancy side, is about And rates. generally rental markets debt. occupancy. we're

Wurschmidt The from Austin next question comes KeyBanc Capital with Markets.

wanted for just I of rate just you the growth the growth revised what this that versus year clarify provided. the you assumption to lease for balance rate guess, need is year? implied what you can is the lease had share, Alex, previously And X.X% the

a positive. XX% probably here's year, to mean blend and XX think renewals basis about the We're the I Yes. way new best it. point assuming full for lease

And XX And And XX component got about to picking you're got that the that. rent that, which got points. from getting basis the basis market so you've points growth of is a then is that the earn-in. you've up -- you've then

add to XX versus basis to then of our So occupancy year. compares to that debt gets XXX XX is going And I 'XX that, year. guess be that points basis points. assuming points. 'XX, full XX bad points it To basis to basis we're the for basis is to That higher going you you're points XX last

how point X.X%. basis get XX a that's to and the that's So you pickup,

Got it.

Okay.

like on it So math of seems the I the about X.X% getting to? here was X.XX% out from blend is to kind

right. That's Yes.

Ric, Ric, with couple do your guess the I supply in remarks around guess. how capital multiyear perspective? hit lows prepared just years. of from in prior I of with of strong and up to set-up ramping highlighted next you further a activity and the financing the you other better in poised absorption, cost market others types advantage back position that take to development of backdrop -- being is a

-- it terms earlier, towards about you on the it on a aggressive real how have more side for way you beginning of that demand will more how and next be the it of you if think and and we think we question absorption the about decent everything then think given we in the continue And development clearly, get up when -- see development pipeline as do set Well, And can continues, start. the 'XX, the the year I when the pivot? year. is, the the continues and 'XX, would of cards us equation, guess of we pivot see end we could talked you that should and I side

stock. trading rate the X assets today low now, a a in trade and cap Clearly, X is buying selling we're first stock buying cap best And at right market the rate. the at when was quarter high

a And so reasonable make. to very trade it's

now to and this that when see the we supply seeing us season be at we aggressive the middle peak aggressive to up taken unfolds to to the mode And for a and, leasing we'll need point. able that get start more that the really more get say, how between of ultimately, summer. so And pivot does

Wedbush. The with next Anderson questions is from Rich

to the I'm to one-question rule And trying keep here.

observational just pretty stuff. It's So yes, easy. it's

perspective sort they're not so interpretation until when not growth knowledge you just you think have So you to because is 'XX difference AvalonBay, concern there in Equity what rent the get accelerating and issue? have going a you more between growth you're in guys an any and it say of XXXX think Residential more XXXX. Is Is dummies and essentially you which hear do saying that them explains that either. rent information,

the think So like I'm curious difference just is? what you

think that's difference everybody of much pretty I talks is, that and the their is book, it. part to

Is doing? that you're what

markets. say. sure, what they're say Well, if -- not operating going to didn't No. what But it, they saying, believe you're wouldn't we're going we to they believe sure and I'm in the is we -- issue we're these

are -- even data showing So of in doing, pretty what at around those to they opine time, not at demand is of COVID, demand look sort because San back and their I fair data good providers. -- [indiscernible] rent -- hasn't of jobs the about this from Francisco going look And their markets, our when we long a you of about use you all a numbers use lost that of look XXXX the yet that's at for -- we they of fair you excess accelerating providers, so if example, because talked the coming some beginning. for at Francisco San and added show [indiscernible], when I'm a number we at growth during though multifamily look things

would -- there's for certain Pretty markets. of We're operate that their think everybody York does no. of a sense City has City, what's I X New So properties so X answer markets, and about give amount day. seeing in in New happening these me hard York and own properties what's every me in I the that bias or if we had on a be going

in Dallas lost. broad XX Both Phoenix of take have XXX,XXX, 'XX, lost our operated understand dynamics these to XXX,XXX let's San Like, Francisco, Austin -- XX,XXX how Houston have has for and markets Francisco. for XX,XXX XXX,XXX, XXXX, XXX,XXX. just LA of and LA from sense still a numbers are jobs incredibly added You since San jobs jobs -- the We markets. work compelling. We've the years. some have over example,

fact brethren So us perspective growth better Sunbelt And what's And and in XXX was that their East don't the yes, than hole I the hole. a driving just crawling from is that line because between and Camden rate and that's deep a our out the West the they're of is revenue that gap markets But is, Coast are the bottom Coast way markets. continues to for to place point Mid-American versus doing now AvalonBay. been deep cap those good then. basis a stocks implied so understand Equity the drive

going ultimately, is of household that drove happen because and the so a And job write formation continue. that these to when markets which to going the positive thing growth things markets supply past, revenue on all from what's and in in outperformance perspective, the themselves is growth same the that are going is

you that all the growth, bet back don't X to the think that going that's sexy unless So happen. cities we're get to I going

and I is disagree, agree So dynamics in in you stocks to fundamental that's based you between Coast, markets. And do West we'll that, growth can growth but right. in change markets who's on all a think buy Coast the see what these we East the guys there's right?

Next with question from Sakwa Evercore. Steve comes

just which piggy-back to needs penciling at development deals on of comment about guess Or are where how where they from some new list? And today, on looked higher kind curious the wanted up be? the economics possibility the think your far And away pencil? are I'm to you if starting I I markets your development. Ric, Great. you do actually those of

at I push, Charlotte And Charlotte page look leasing you at say would has so the I a is. see leasing down But supply and the and on big but and and developments some where go ones our economic development say the you'll a positioned. supply quickly would we're supply X in -- and than biggest issues, there. really just see that for new be Well, supply supply clearly, Nashville and you XX think if the new development and absorbing, about over our rates have And is decent at the we development Nashville month have -- cities developments it's example, start our units. have where be it have closer between We're coming units does And needs, push, that Austin where properties, XX online. are, have it we you'll depending be -- developments. where most would would would issue it we Nashville, a supplement, you a would -- they're and bigger in list, Charlotte.

to numbers. take a those we're at look So going hard

to is, most our is there trades that when But you Xs, that have Xs. they're high on it that rent that developments in bet are are of to going the look absorbed, buying that going similar pro Xs. is to be pound. 'XX to at in people's then be low when replacement -- hurts -- cost XX% their you supply head if in of 'XX, are the you have that so today I rates going -- and based though spikes is current XX%, buying if they're in that, leverage, to be we And know cap happened negative They're on the 'XX, XXXX, that the going even 'XX today, think and 'XX, and a we at do like basically forma

more question cards. more to year we to commit confidence And see capital is, of season that see so I we think that makes sense. have development, to lot the and we this this a the before leasing still But need need

to you'll so me, looking And our just see at are. it's supplement, the where starts

The next Piper question comes Goldfarb from Sandler. with Alexander

Ric, could be [indiscernible] trademark a good moneymaker. that sounds like hopefully, you it

the lot the on hard same everyone general, is great, all talking the to the going talking it's the about your only strength are apartments really economy homes jobs in low it's renter potential but are the So everyone of going typical for about been recession, is at is can't good demand. home. a talking hard And afford and time, not landing, season earnings job hey, but of yet and the a talking is jobs the strong believe the -- Sunbelt, move-outs economists clearly, that the about across because and heads and Sunbelt, what's supply, and to to

that's seem explaining the is that? versus So Would that say. Sunbelt you're seeing agree what the broader would across the your does absorption and economic between disconnect the it like the the heads markets in markets? is the concerns Or else there your you talking economy demand with in something than stronger

market idea for the There's mean of landing the out at print think [indiscernible] I -- think right, [indiscernible] jobs rallies it's number right? if kind about first and [indiscernible] was is -- think that that's look and that I think what that not the risk there a that's sure. that have or job print Well, today, a I Fed or there's still a soft soft ease of because consensus and about, just -- we do landing, published XXX,XXX no they that have landing. of the the the what big that's happened, course, does recession time the where XX about rallying concern you and and I was you question think that. [indiscernible] then hard the to quarter I do job And so I years question scenario,

we X our landing economic or take other a what then have hand, the same have up landing all economy, the [indiscernible]. But as is our numbers we Sunbelt. are have demand you soft off, we so and work The And to is right? demand been million hard I of and If supply today then any what kind X primarily be long product the lose or landing, economy bets hard are. think a mean as for the scenario, will construct have multifamily jobs, if they've and a then and numbers plentiful, jobs I on good. demand any drives been in ultimately

question from Eric comes Next with Citibank. Wolfe

expect you XX that said contribution you from a now. occupancy think bps I

through like right means XX.X% go that Is they what based call So you that the like just just trying year, to of remainder XX.X% the done average? would the you've of it, think occupancy about year through so the think mean math, I through far. sort that which to think expecting on you're will way the what

That's exactly right.

with that to so the So quarter, second XX.X% the XX.X% about assuming math. we're quarter, for and going be third quarter we're line the exactly for XX.X% fourth your at for in

go just was of some there be that sort you you. maybe forward rate, could the indicators lease were of seeing rise? anything that on that if tenants percentage briefly, but the just I said continue of like you should could wondering Got this you of that sort telling confidence you renewing, sort occupancy And you're of touched gives then through to that occupancy the you improvement.

Yes.

for to, the projects the out kind think It was is strategy, are future to our making to is where -- based obviously, renewal on going always use -- YieldStar et that X portfolio upcoming, be YieldStar we at looking weeks renewals referring Eric, we occupancy So to is lease trends. and is X what -- least when It's adjustments at I time, of about what cetera. forward-looking. X

have, have on we using we not is in when -- that making about revenue like what's with when we're That's know you'll is. So today. team the the We tool management strategy which ground are who to it's what us conjunction changes, our inform obvious. start that

to the us that's we'll say, is certain that's to you YieldStar strategy have we model The obviously, point our change, question it this weeks be where to going X take we on is encouraged and the of going is make it the help that I strategy does and referring be advantage as forward-looking. was to rents it applied to -- to history we're look So of occupancy either the about the strategy. what and markets, we're to experience algorithm at do that. used a is is continue project a We the what make lot and change and make that that if a today, out? or increase we to model decisions and with that don't tool to -- is, across opportunity But judgment going path all

Feldman question Wells Fargo. Jamie next with from comes The

Great.

do million investment the markets. next think across repurchase in do know window how you this like you And million, your about love couple about think so plan. to thoughts red shares? you're is thinking go the I'd but of or allocation. on the actually spikes capital know I what's capital just any had I to back near but just kind But of buying -- million the stack kind JVs, $XXX on any buying to you left X you buy get X, you near going I as of don't know and if versus $XXX you cap years had on back the rates So out, a mentioned stock the or if mentioned $XXX

won't you're we we -- JV, that. the Well, so right, like don't be doing

sheet ownership do we so what we when most pristine partners, an want everything we have own. we XXX% it. the want from to balance We of perspective. We own don't do any We have

discussions. we the rest that and price it's persistent what considering our We've stock a quarter, we assets underlying And obviously do. are the think something of in the we can disconnect between of price, be year. stock, buy that over allocation, forward go percent those one of said we did time if first issue our as it's and the always and XX-plus again we'll is that sell there's we capital of is interesting big assets that stock when value into the that The below

to starting as move acquisitions ultimately, to offense, well, developments market. this when is of think and decide an I then new And we in interesting market terms potentially

back, pretty at haven't If look of had the you at transaction the that quarter of if market people's sort big tenure the the then [indiscernible] had beginning run-up improve volumes the all came levels people that was seen on the when doing to of sudden [indiscernible] beginning outlets quarter a and people the XXXX. the that at energy because the we're the since at in well transaction you sort maybe look -- just because transaction been it in of going of

properties should other the on where deals of just to So on. market and a going of ultimately, to sell [indiscernible] portfolio the forward, buy opportunities going there our to some be improve we not But and interesting the move there's properties, maybe concentration. quality sell just our some buy lot rate growth

look on really will. come season things. have in I those the before, to like leasing through said to all -- -- the us But the peak order of offense, it we So have -- go at for we'll way we think

The Goldsmith question from with next Michael comes UBS.

Ami you've this potentially with bad below debt, of for room was a sounds Michael. Is is progress lot there pace processes? you is good. just that's so debt on I the screening And on reduction for wondering, debt bad enhanced average made like to of the the it sustainable? historical improve bad This

think about the Keith thing first bit. you so as we I tell debt bad Well, talked is quite absolutely it would is, it sustainable. is today a

Atlanta enforce and for we that's making about And sure think there of legislation problem our was you helpful have can us obviously, If really contracts. today that markets. we one

think the we year. average, long-term today that's is think so the and we'll I Getting certainly through which it we rest XX have And sustainable, are see. why we the running have to below of basis points, is

of use at technology we consumer point, points, back basis getting But not What probably has whether through we're worse. we're or behavior is can offset get think optimistic battle it out a figure at the least for if I trying to then has, XX%. better today to it's the to changed constant behavior. consumer And on certainly not bets any going this than XX to that but be putting

And just. ahead, let me sorry. Go

from Daniel [indiscernible] with The next question Deutsche Bank. comes

get earlier. backdrop? or the you of quarter? dynamic the in clarify the I growth that given -- mentioned the assume kind to quarter X% a over different negative normal second there seasonality Alex, half rent wanted assumed there is new the flat leases third just a in is fourth supply before lease Does positive to Or takes rate like

Yes. No.

negative fairly from you X% fourth if quarter. So the and about think consistent the is third quarter it, the

to So is offset renewals. that -- obviously the but

assuming And close third to to quarter. going so that X% for are and be renewals we're fourth the

X.X% that's quarter. blend talking just that's the in And third offset, fourth is once the to about. we're and quarter the in the again, the blend So we're you that how get that assuming X.X% and

flat, comes So have new there in not where running that time are not we our leases model point or do through whether today. a

comes Adam Stanley. Kramer question Morgan from next with The

cadence I ask coming year. wanted cadence about the supply, in to the and of really next quarters the really of deliveries into

kind kind year-to-date to this time, are you'd do with I and the impressive far improvement of want know to at occupancy I cadence? of accelerate supply. kind X, lease the you I deliveries in coming in the of on think view think this quarter new or really same what of accelerating unprecedented again months face and of absorptions how in so presumably just kind able delivery over as the be light

Yes.

for the because for year, work more he work, XX we completions. of numbers does again, I the pace deliveries. portfolio about across Witten [indiscernible] detailed this think a XXX,XXX -- of around So And primarily little -- use projects better bit Camden's

about because the in get that how Now XXX,XXX. that at got there's deliveries deceleration a probably if into granularity you slight occurs, to of XXXX Witten's

that [indiscernible] So the in front-end backwards. go you data But be about if reverse to back to engineer going year-over-year and a decline of pretty between months because think going XX happen XX,XXX XXXX, go overall dramatically if look of was loaded are 'XX. falling the that deliveries don't of kind question it of that's 'XX kind there's at any you to that I question and

in it. total with deal XXXX. being worse And pretty us XXXX a I of XXXX certainly So is supply But that's my scenario loaded number. see than terms and front-end that guess to obviously, have the is in don't we'll supply, for just

And the strong. rates mentioned, continued really the And looks employment absorption far, have things if like Ric looks at sort status under really projected XXXX hard of factors are our because what's quo look so in Sunbelt, apartments. the the good of been for if XXXX all scenario you growth and migration all absorption no year of then to another and equal landing, for

to continued loaded front-end environment. a good pretty constructive in XXXX really like sounds me So supply, demand

[indiscernible] with from Baird. comes question Next

changed from ones of thoughts? markets or [indiscernible] the initial worse expectations amongst your which better initial at call. last Have versus your and are Looking maybe any the

our because that you Yes, tell the I out rating were portfolio same. always X have I then of terms we I I we assets have call, thought that it me. at of Austin and quarter a little Those would the a in lease I changed and But can't should Austin worse a -- and just only than X out. probably a Nashville was in -- have me the would If jumped them and little prior going don't. that exposure. on I I letter are rest today, X the are in to of those of say, nothing maybe have be be the to the kind would rates. markets been I at quarter look at the any probably bit there's we suppose new than again that But harsher was I jump ago grades. Nashville worst-performing

Green with Street. Next question from comes [indiscernible]

next you few enter over expect do any wondering, new years? Just exit markets any the markets to existing or

in that the NOI lowering time regard. definitely -- clearly We properties in the we will do over our markets D.C. our and other and of continue over need about we have in pointed to Houston the out, a where years and exposure have Keith period to or monitor X% next like like we will we would exposure and there. And in, of markets of more long talked of some lowering our exposure to We X in some we've -- increasing Nashville. manage in portfolio we exposure have expand few our X% our

follow-up concludes looks Wurschmidt KeyBanc. today This turn the we Austin from it conference like would from like -- I have question-and-answer our to a session.

typically new getting Just periods long-term that the lease confidence when a bit lease the X%. historically guess period you you what Is little delinquent and sort new to minus growth traffic that assumption you with have a or less can you the has on of in hold? see improve seasonality a of I year half the that rate kind now, it seen of the something in comps take rate gives back demand? back drive do usually units less growth the

absolutely. Yes,

quarter markets. a all, is for demand third So first in our quarter the of us high

point. one that's So

first peak hit will pricing second stronger the I that through us was with ran initiatives that the that The gave to all leasing. the you we that tell is pricing -- as ability quarter we that have thing

helpful we the be throughout to move of going why that's And we think so very as us year. sort that's rest of for the

fourth as we is is the comp rest become year. right, is, then through And the much easier the the go thing of exactly

for closing question-and-answer like the This to I concludes turn session. Campo over Ric conference remarks. to would any our back

least are last Well, it not done which we hour, even appreciate a one is your under terms time today, though and we in the but reporting. of get did we the record,

you you So and Bye. being we'll seeing thank to for the on look Thanks. NAREIT, in forward call.

attending concluded. The today's for has now you presentation. Thank conference

now may You disconnect.